Referendum in final deal

[Niamer]

In most life- changing decisions, there is a get-out clause. If you buy a house with rising damp, you can pull out before completion, you can break off an engagement if your Mr. Right turns out to be Mr. Notquite. I assume most reasonable people would like the opportunity to have a look at the brexit deal we get from the EU and decide if that's really the best way forward. If you agree, please sign and share. petition.parliament.uk/petitions/193282

The Independent article you linked to is from Nov 2016. So is the Business Insider article

Here is the latest YouGov poll. I have no interest in trying to convince you that it clearly shows that a large majority of the population want to proceed with Brexiting the EU. I don't believe you are interested in trying to understand the opinions of the country at large, and what you think, at the end of the day, does really matter. Anyway the poll is here for anyone else interested in having a look.

yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/attitudes-brexit-everything-we-know-so-far/

From the YouGov poll:

This means that overall the public think Brexit should go ahead by 69% to 21%

It's a poll. No-one is claiming polls are 100% accurate - but they give some indication of the views of the population or perhaps we should just ask what Danny thinks and be done with all this democracy malarky

doesn't really matter NOT does really matter

A bit like heads I win, tails you loose. Or is it heads I loose, tails you win. Good luck with that one.

WoodPigeon:

I've quoted from that YouGov data:

The question you qoute from shows: " "More people who voted to Remain last year take the view that the government has a duty to follow the result and leave the EU than think they should try to reverse it.""

That's where the 69% to 21% thing comes from, it doesn't show whether they think its a good idea, because that is still evenly split. That simply shows that people think the government now should follow the result, not that they back Brexit.

The other two opinion polls I used are slightly older yes, but its to show that you can't present opinion polls as fact, one because opinons change quite quickly over time, and two because it depends who you are asking, and what questions you are asking, and then how you present the data.

As you have shown here you've quoted a source that says the overall public think Brexit should go ahead and used to to make a claim about most people supporting brexit.

The data doesn't actually show support for Brexit at all, it shows that people think that the government should implement the result of the referendum, which are two different things.

Dannythechampion

Many opinion polls are still done by phone or house to house. At least the official ones that I have been apart of have.

and yes they are just based on opinions, which is why those taken by papers shouldn't be bothered with.

As another point that is being put around is that any deal will be bad for the UK, but misses that we are a major importer of EU goods, this could seem like a negative but it should also be sold as a positive as such industries like the German car industry isn't going to want to lose a major selling area,

In fact only 44% of people said: "I support Britain leaving the EU and the Government should ensure that Britain does leave the EU"

Whilst 25% of people said: " I did not support Britian leaving the EU but now the British people have voted to leave but now the Government has a duty to carry out its wishes and leave "

Which actually shows a very different side of things to how you want to present this data.

See opinion polls, and your use of them, can't be presented as fact.

The German Car industry argument again?

The German car industry is keen to see a good deal which benefits the UK and the EU, it will not however lobby Merkel so that the UK is given a better deal than EU states.

We are also a net exporter of cars to the EU, our own car industry relies far more on EU supply lines and is far more at risk than the German one.

If you think about it logically for most German cars you pay a premium anyway, a 10% tariff won't make much difference to the demand for Audi, Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen, they are all priced higher than the competition in the market anyway.

It will make a difference to Nissan, Vauxhall, Honda and Toyota as their costs will increase because of barriers to the supply lines and tariffs.

As I said, the EU has already stated they want a good deal, but that we cant have a deal better than membership, which is essentially what the leave campaign told people we could have.

The UK exports around £10bn of cars to the EU and imports arund £30bn. Not looking for a better deal, but just a free trade agreement, like a lot of the world has.
The Remain argument lost because there was pro-EU argument, just a, if we leave there will be Armageddon. Where was the positives of being in the EU? None
Where was the support for greater integration? There are many good arguments for a United States of Europe, which is where the EU is heading, so why were none of them voiced?

I thought YouGov polls were done with a self selecting group, who are promised a payment after so many polls are completed? I thus tend to take them with a pinch of salt.

On a separate Brexit subject, does anyone else remember that advert about health care? I only saw it on YouTube but I think it was a TV advert where the NHS and the supposed wonder of an NHS when the UK was outside the EU were compared. With someone still waiting under NHS, compared with the person leaving having been treated, under the glorious new future. Guess which one we have got so far? I don't see any plans to have the fantasy NHS installed at any time.

This one, Peregrina?

Or this one:

(which also includes the alternative fact of Turkey joining the EU)

Not sure which one, and am about to go out for the day. So I will try to look when I get back. Either way Leavers - don't forget what you were promised.

Why are people still rehashing the Leave/Remain campaigns & the referendum?
It's done, it's over, it's in the past.

Why still frame everything in Leave/Remain voting terms?
It's reductive and serves no purpose.

Because that's what's happening. We're leaving. CopperRose. And we're investigating how Brexit Britain is.

Dannythechampion
The German Car industry argument again

And its worth bringing up again as it does put us in a strong position

but that we cant have a deal better than membership, which is essentially what the leave campaign told people we could have.

But one of the main complaints about the leave campaign was that there was no plan and no-one knew what was going to happen.

You can't have it both ways.

The German car industry argument doesn't put us in a strong position, because if there are tariffs on cars, and their components, it effects us far more because of the EU base of the supply lines.

There will be a deal, but its naive to think that because we import a lot of German cars that it puts us in a strong position. Why? Because even with a tariff we'd probably import a very similar amount, because there are no close substitutes, and tariffs would increase the cost of production of the UK made cars anyway.

"But one of the main complaints about the leave campaign was that there was no plan and no-one knew what was going to happen"

No, the "better than membership deal" is what the leave campaign told people they could have when others said that it would mean leaving the single market, if we wanted to negotiate our own trade deals etc. We got: " No that won't happen, scaremongering". Or they gave the German car industry/Prosecco argument. If this was the plan its accurate and fair to critique it because its fantasy.

As I've said the EU will be willing to compromise on a deal, the UK is important to it, however I feel that the way leavers paint this is all or nothing.

Actually thinking about it, the way leavers paint it is like its war, like the aim is to defeat your opponent. Maybe that's the issue with leavers overall, you never got over the war, EU is always an enemy to made to follow our will, or dictating to us.

Its not just the car industry, there are many EU areas in which we import more than we export.

I make this point to counter the we are in a weak position argument put forward by remainers.

Remainers shouldn't put forward an argument based on the false information that the UK has a weak position because it isn't true.

Some leavers may be saying all or nothing but that is again a generalisation

I don't think we are in a weak position, I don't think at all though that is put forward by LOTS of leavers, that we have the upper hand, nor does it give us a very strong position.

This is mainly down to the fact that the result of a poor set of negotiations will effect both badly, but it would be far more detrimental to the UK than it would the EU 27.

Its the need for relevant substitutes for goods that cause the issue there. Take the car industry for example. As I've said I don't think a WTO tariff would effect the BMW, Audi, Mercedes and VW marques much, it would probably effect the French car makers, Skoda, Fiat and Seat.

However, these marques would probably see their market share of the EU market expand as demand for the other price sensitive brands that the UK produce ( 52% of all cars are exported to the EU) falls. UK firms would also be effected by increases in costs because of tariffs applied to parts, and possible increases in waiting times due to customs issues.

For the British marques, I don't think demand for Mini's would be effected much.

A mutually beneficial deal is what the EU are seeking, but again painting it as a "they need us more than we need them" is incorrect.

A mutually beneficial deal is what the EU are seeking

Isn't that what both sides are seeking?

Part of what you are saying goes back to the UK press, but then when you look at the picture posted up-thread from a German paper the UK press isn't the only ones doing this.

I think that the long and short of this is they we are arguing the same point from the opposing side.

It is about control of our borders, making and upholding our own laws, and not paying a bloody fortune to faceless eurocrats. In other words running our country the way we want to without people in Brussels telling us what to do

Control of our borders - the UK decides its own visa policy for all countries (because it is not a party to the Schengen Agreement) except those in the EU and EFTA. If you've ever been at a British airport or seaport, then you will have been subject to a passport check carried out by Border Force. The only exceptions are the Eurostar and Eurotunnel terminals, where French border police carry out passport checks (Juxtaposed Controls Agreement).

Upholding our own laws - we have our own parliament, our own police forces and our own justice system. The European Court of Human Rights and the European Convention on Human Rights also have nothing to do with the EU. They were established by the Council of Europe, which is a separate organisation from the European Union. We will remain part of it after Brexit.

"and not paying a bloody fortune to faceless eurocrats" - we are represented in the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament, so we have a vote on EU-wide financial matters. We also pay significantly less than we should do (relative to our population), thanks to Margaret Thatcher. If you believe the 350 million figure a week given by the Leave side, it won't go to the NHS.

running our country the way we want to without people in Brussels telling us what to do - the UK has the power to veto certain proposals in the Council of Ministers. This right was last exercised by David Cameron in 2011. Parliament still remains (theoretically) sovereign, as it could at any time decide to repeal the European Communities Act 1972. The UK also has many opt-outs from EU legislation, which other member states do not have. These laws include: the Schengen Agreement, the EU economic and monetary union (eurozone), and the charter of fundamental rights. The UK also has the final say on the most significant decisions like foreign policy, welfare, defence, finance and how much income is taxed.

To add to my point about the money we give to the EU, on the back of the tax summary you get from HMRC it shows you how much of your tax goes to the EU. It's probably not a lot compared to your income.

Monger
Parliament still remains (theoretically) sovereign, as it could at any time decide to repeal the European Communities Act 1972. That is what we are doing.

We dont need a better deal than membership would allow we just want a sensible, normal deal like Canada just got. And when we are out of the EU we will be able to do deals with other countries. That will make the UK in a better position than being restrained inside the EU. So we will get a better deal overall it just doesn't have to all come from the EU.

Checking a passport at our borders is not the same as controlling our borders. Can we turn EU citizens away at the border just because they dont have a job. NO we can't because we dont control our own borders.

Back home now, it was the first NHS advert I was thinking about. Of course, reflecting upon it, the idealistc version will happen, because that will be what is on offer to people who can pay to go private. They have conveniently ignored the people who won't be able to afford health care and die prematurely - that would not have made a good advert.

The second one I hadn't seen at all, and what complete blatant lies. Now I don't blame the average person for voting Leave because they want more money for the NHS even if it wasn't the promised £350 million a week. I am angry about Gove, Johnson and Stuart fronting the Leave campaign and immediately ratting on that pledge. They are all still in Parliament - the least I would have expected them to do was to say that they would do everything in their power to make sure that greatly increased funding for the NHS was their priority, but no, they suddenly went quiet. And I am still surprised that some Leavers on these threads are going along with their stance - they never believed the promises apparently.