Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/04/2017 21:42

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

  1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

  2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

  3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

  4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

  5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

  1. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

  1. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

  1. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

  2. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

  3. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

  4. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

  5. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
9
BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 00:52

So the Cons held their Piddle Smile
They've been taking the piddle for rather a long time

BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 01:03

YouGov survey on May

Conducted 2-3 March, sample size 1608 GB adults

49% vs 15% - better PM than Corbyn would be
47% vs 31% - she's similar to Thatcher < she's shamelessly channelling the Iron Lady, but hasn't the Iron >
56% - she is decisive
56% - has what it takes to get things done
44% vs 24% - think she is good in a crisis
40% to 25% - think she's honest
45% to 26% - she has a cold personality

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulusuploads/document/7xzfbpppjy/InternallResults1703033TheresaMay_w.pdf

BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 01:05

We see that Corbyn is abysmally below the level of support his party have - and he's obviously dragged that down too

RedToothBrush · 14/04/2017 01:06

Guess who is apparently bank rolling George Galloway's By-Election campaign?

Clue: he's a famous donor for a political party...

Re nukes and trump. It's when not if isn't it?

OP posts:
mathanxiety · 14/04/2017 01:25

I think your direct experience of NI was most unusual, especially your HR insight into discriminatory hiring practices, Ron, but also knowing someone who experienced the trauma of armed service in NI.

Your close proximity to the London bombing was possibly not unusual though.

My own Irish relatives in London heard nothing by way of insight into the problems in NI from colleagues, and learned not to try to educate people when spurious views were put forth. They just kept their mouths shut unless they were sure of their company.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 01:31

Not my field, but I'm still bitter in scientific solidarity ....

Twenty-one countries vie to host EU drug agency after Brexit

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-pharmaceuticals-ema-idUKKBN17C12X

"The European Medicines Agency [EMA] has had expressions of interest to host the London-based regulator from 21 of the 27 countries that will form the European Union once Britain leaves, revealing rivalry from Amsterdam to Zagreb for a prized institution."

"The agency is responsible for the smooth-running of the EU drug approval process, which is vital for companies, as well as overseeing the safety of medicines once they reach the market."

"With nearly 900 skilled staff, an annual budget of 322 million euros and luring 36,000 experts a year to its meetings,
the EMA is the largest EU institution in Britain and an attractive prospect for multiple cities.
Its new location will be determined by EU heads of state"

"The other significant EU body in London is the European Banking Authority, with 160 staff, which is also set to relocate."

BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 01:39

from the European Council on Foreign Relations:

Does this mean all parties have agreed that there will NOT be a hard NI border after Brexit ?
Or are they being overoptimistic / misunderstood Bojo's burblings / .... ?

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentaryharddbordersofftheminddbrexitnorthernnirelandanddthe7273

"The European Council and the UK have committed to preventing the re-emergence of a border on the island.

This is a credit to both parties, and to the Irish Government, which has spent months raising awareness of the Irish issues.
The task ahead is not insurmountable, but while the negotiators address the question of the hard border on the island, they must also be attentive to the hard borders of the mind in Northern Ireland.

It is important to state that a return to violence as a result of the above issues is unlikely.
Nonetheless, in an already divided society, uncertainty itself can breed instability, and the issues raised by Brexit present clear risks to the continuing process of reconciliation."

Peregrina · 14/04/2017 10:58

This is a very interesting and rather lengthy read about someone who was a Conservative but has now changed and his views On Brexit.

The section which stood out for me was
My real suspicion, though, is that May still regards the whole subject of Brexit as a matter of party management, first and foremost. ...... Here it’s not so much that the bigger picture doesn’t interest May, as that she is fundamentally unaware of it. .... May is so very, very earnest in her careful ineptitude...... The spiteful sentiments in that awful ‘citizen of the world’ speech are doubtless authentic, and very near to her heart. Its message, after all, was that being anything other than ordinary — by being foreign, making lots of money, thinking in a way that is cosmopolitan rather than narrow and sectional — was bad, undesirable, traduces the will of the people.

woman12345 · 14/04/2017 11:24

Thanks for posting Peregrina. His praise of Blair and Campbell reminded me of the delicate balancing act Brown was constantly performing to subdue leaver Labour, (although they weren't then called that) on his 5 tests for joining the euro, (never passable).

This is true:

May could almost be defined by the things that do not interest her. She has shown no obvious enthusiasm for agriculture, industry, the arts, education, sport, science, ecology, economics, defence, foreign policy, social policy, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, the judiciary and rule of law, our unwritten constitution or indeed our national or regional history. That leaves, basically, not a lot — just policing (although the police don’t like her, as she does not believe either in paying them or giving them much discretion), security (particularly where it involves curtailing personal freedom), deporting people (she’s a fan), deporting Islamists (she’s a huge fan), immigration (she’s not at all a fan), Tory party internal management and, lastly, winning elections — although it must be said that since becoming prime minister, her enthusiasm for a general election has not been very evident either, despite something like 20-point lead in the polls, a spavined opposition and a better economic picture than she is likely to see for the next decade or so

And he's good on the racism and false memory syndrome that seems to afflict many extreme Brexiteers about the axis nations of the last war.

It's so good to hear a moderate tory voice.

Peregrina · 14/04/2017 11:45

I don't doubt that May believes what she says about wanting a country which works for everyone. I think her problem is that she doesn't realise how narrow her outlook is, and that her concept of everyone doesn't encompass large parts of the population.

LurkingHusband · 14/04/2017 11:55

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-realises-brexit-is-a-mistake-official-says-1.3048046

No secrecy in Brexit ...

The British government is slowly realising Brexit is “an act of great self-harm” and that upcoming EU-UK negotiations must seek to limit the damage, the State’s top Brexit official has said.
The official, John Callinan, said on Thursday: “I see signs in the contacts that we’re having, both at EU level and with the UK, of a gradual realisation that Brexit in many ways is an act of great self-harm, and that the focus now is on minimising that self-harm.”

(contd)

emphasis on "slowly", I think.

NinonDeLenclos · 14/04/2017 11:55

I don't know who wrote the 'citizens of the world' speech - I'd assume it was either Fiona Hill or Nick Timothy. Either way this FT piece on Timothy credits him as the inspiration behind it:

Nick is anti-establishment,” says one Tory MP. “He sees himself as a challenger to their values, whether it is on Europe or whatever else.” It was Timothy — who delivers his onslaughts on elites with a twinkle in his eye — who devised May’s Tory conference attack on “citizens of the world”.

Very interesting article, am happy to C&P for people who don't have subscriptions.

The Power Brokers Behind Brexit

woman12345 · 14/04/2017 12:19

Great article, thanksNinon. "difficult to negotiate if you don't come out of your bunker." (especially if you don't need one)
Timothy in Thanet, and election expenses:
order-order.com/2017/03/01/nick-timothy-charge-thanet-campaign/
And Philip May is part of the chosen 4:
There was of course another benefit to having Philip in CCHQ – he could report back on which Cabinet ministers and MPs were pulling their weight. Tories say the proof that Philip is being used as a serious political operative is the fact that his phone banking exploits have not been briefed out to the media, as was the norm with SamCam
order-order.com/2017/03/16/theresa-deploys-philip-may-as-personal-focus-group/.

NinonDeLenclos · 14/04/2017 12:40

Thanks for those links, I will go and read them.

I also liked this quote:

But one Brit who knows them both warns: “When it comes to the EU, there is one big difference between Martin and Nick. Martin knows what he is talking about.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 14:48

Brexit challenges the identity of Ulster unionism

Reflections from a Unionist:

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-challenges-the-identity-of-ulster-unionism-1.3047791

"A post-Brexit Border poll would centre around a very different question:

do you support a united Ireland (inside the EU, protective of a multiplicity of identities and supported by the Republic’s political/business establishment)

or do you support the union (outside the EU, possibly diminished by the departure of Scotland and with the rise of a new form of English nationalism which will have no interest in the Celtic fringes)?

That’s a much more problematic challenge for those soft unionists and nationalists.

A significant minority of unionists voted to Remain.
They like the European Union, and regard it as a stabilising influence in NI.
They like being Northern Irish, British, partly Irish and European.
That multiplicity of identities suits them."

< May can fuck off about "citizens of nowhere" >

btw, the last poll I found on RoI support for a United Ireland found support had increased after the Brexit Ref to 65% in favour:

http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2016/07/29/news/two-thirds-of-people-in-republic-would-vote-for-united-ireland--628580/

lalalonglegs · 14/04/2017 14:52

Ninon, would you mind c&p'ing for me, I can never get into the FT despite just searching the titles of articles etc.

Thx

BigChocFrenzy · 14/04/2017 14:52

Peregrina May either thinks the UK is just like the wealthy mc retired Home Counties everywhere, or thinks that only their opinions should matter

NinonDeLenclos · 14/04/2017 15:09

Sure, it's quite long. Thanks to LH for the article.

NinonDeLenclos · 14/04/2017 15:27

It's so long I will have to divide it up. Part one to follow.

NinonDeLenclos · 14/04/2017 15:28

Martin Selmayr is notorious and he loves it. While his influence is currently most keenly felt within the Brussels Beltway, the German lawyer, 46, sitting in an office festooned with euro memorabilia, jelly sweets and bumper crisp packets, is about to play a pivotal role in Brexit. Viewed by some in London as a dark force and in Brussels as possessing almost mystical powers, few doubt his crucial role in the talks that will reset Britain’s future.

A half-smile crosses Selmayr’s lips as he is asked about his fearsome nicknames, which range from Rasputin to “the monster”, an affectionate moniker from his boss, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. “If you look into the history of Rasputin, that can be both flattering and not — Lenin can be flattering or not,” he says. “If it means there is an efficient manager, somebody who is not a wimp, I’m OK with that. You can’t run the European Commission like a Montessori school.”

When the history of Brexit comes to be told, Selmayr — an official who rose spectacularly through the Brussels ranks to become Juncker’s all-powerful chief of staff — will be a central figure. “Do you know the difference between Selmayr and God?” Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s veteran finance minister, once joked. “God knows he’s not Selmayr.”

Brexit was a body blow to the EU, but Selmayr sees the “tragedy” as a jolt that will re-energise his cherished European project and reforge it without Britain, its most reluctant member. He is confident Britain will pay a price for leaving. And his bossy, whip-smart legalism has come to embody all that No 10 loves to hate about Brussels.

But as negotiations begin and the clock counts down to Britain’s scheduled departure in March 2019, Selmayr may be about to meet his match. If the clean-cut German has been compared to Rasputin, Nick Timothy actually looks the part. Standing at six foot, with hooded eyes and a beard that, in the words of Paul Goodman, the executive editor of the influential ConservativeHome website, makes him look like “a Greek Orthodox archimandrite”, he oversees a Downing Street regime every bit as centralised as the Selmayr machine. Ministers and officials alike have learnt not to cross him.

While Selmayr sees Brexit as a case study in the essential value of the EU, Timothy sees it as a chance to grab back sovereignty and remodel his country in favour of working people. Brussels symbolises everything the grammar-school boy from Birmingham despises: remote elitism that has failed to deliver for the people.

Being called Rasputin? I’m OK with that. You can’t run the European Commission like a Montessori school. Timothy, 37, is Theresa May’s co-chief of staff, working alongside Fiona Hill, a former journalist. Both are paid £140,000 a year, almost the same as cabinet ministers — and deploy more power than most of them. They are ferociously loyal, demand total control and, behind the scenes, are helping to set the terms of Brexit. “They don’t stop at anything,” says one Tory staffer. “They are streetfighters.”

Timothy and Hill work as a team on everything, constructing a fortress around May. But in the context of Brexit, it is the softly spoken Timothy who commands attention. While Hill supported Remain in last year’s referendum, he voted to take Britain out of the EU.

It was Timothy who crafted the speeches that articulated May’s world view, including January’s key Brexit statement at Lancaster House. Timothy was attracted to Brexit principally by the idea of restoring national sovereignty. “I am not altogether comfortable with our participation in the Ryder Cup team,” he once joked.

Timothy and Selmayr sit on top of extraordinarily centralised bureaucracies. They are not the official negotiators for Brexit and ultimately it will be their bosses — frontline politicians — who make the decisions. But the clout of these back-room svengalis and their crucial role in the big strategic calls is in little doubt. They are two of the youngest and most powerful characters to serve in their chief of staff positions. Both wield great influence over their bosses, have survived attempts to bring them down and are not afraid to dish out punishment. Both are classic insiders who break the mould. Their political destinies are bound up with Brexit.

Remarkably they have never met, at least not formally. Selmayr thinks he saw Timothy, pre-beard, years ago at a meeting in Brussels on home affairs; Timothy is well aware of Selmayr but insists they have never encountered each other.

"Vote Leave" demonstrators outside the Houses of Parliament in London, ahead of the referendum vote in June 2016“It’s a pity that the key people in Downing St were never here in Brussels to talk to us,” Selmayr tells the Financial Times from his office, facing that of his boss, Juncker. “So it’s very difficult to judge how they see things.”

To get a sense of how Timothy sees things, one has to start at Tile Cross, a suburb east of Birmingham, named after the quarry from which tiles were hewn. There is nothing especially remarkable about it. Timothy’s father worked for Allied Steel and Wire, his mother as a school assistant. Timothy went to a local primary and then to the state grammar in Aston: he is a devout supporter of Aston Villa. He tells friends his background is resolutely “normal”, yet it defines his political outlook. He refused a request to be interviewed for this article.

The normality of Timothy’s upbringing is only remarkable when seen in the context of the Cameron era. Out of the five people principally involved in writing David Cameron’s 2015 manifesto, four attended Eton College; George Osborne, the fifth, attended the elite St Paul’s school. Theresa May’s arrival in Downing St marked a brutal purge of this old guard, with Timothy and Hill in the vanguard.

“Nick is anti-establishment,” says one Tory MP. “He sees himself as a challenger to their values, whether it is on Europe or whatever else.” It was Timothy — who delivers his onslaughts on elites with a twinkle in his eye — who devised May’s Tory conference attack on “citizens of the world”.

Visitors to Downing St are confronted in the waiting room with the text of May’s speech upon arriving at No 10 last July. Crafted by Timothy, it declared a new set of priorities. “If you’re from an ordinary working-class family, life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise,” May said.

Timothy’s hero is Joseph Chamberlain, the can-do Liberal mayor of Birmingham, who focused on raising working-class conditions.

Yet Timothy has spent his entire working life in Westminster’s orbit. After obtaining a first in politics at Sheffield University, he worked as a researcher in Conservative central office, then with Hill at the Home Office, steering May away from danger, dispensing with enemies and playing a long game.

He is defined by what Goodman calls his “contra mundum” spirit. “There’s a lot of anger,” says one former Home Office colleague. “He defines himself by his battle with others.”

Compared to Timothy, Selmayr’s background is more peripatetic. He was born to a bookish family. His father Gerhard, also a lawyer, advised the German president Karl Carstens before a prominent career running universities. Selmayr criss-crossed the country through his youth: Bonn, Berlin, Munich, Karlsruhe, Passau for his studies.

It was in London, where he studied briefly at King’s College, that he had one of his formative political experiences, encountering authentic British Euroscepticism in the form of Margaret Thatcher. She was billed to promote her memoirs at the Barbican theatre. What Selmayr witnessed was more a political assassination, as Thatcher “basically blasted” her successor John Major and the European project to which he had surrendered. “Alone among the countries of Europe we have not been invaded for over 1,000 years and we have developed the taste for running our affairs,” she said. “I do not wish it to go any further.”

There is a lot of anger,’ says one former Home Office colleague. ‘[Timothy] defines himself by his battle with othersTo an inquisitive twentysomething, this was a moment to remember. He queued for a signed copy of the book, and took from that day an understanding that British politicians had a different perspective. “I saw that there is a big misunderstanding between Britain and the rest of the EU,” he says. “For the Germans and French it is unthinkable to see the European project only as a market; the market is an instrument to achieve something more.”

To pinpoint that “something more”, you can look back to a teenage Selmayr’s visit to Verdun with his war-veteran grandfather, or the bomb-shelter tragedies witnessed by his grandmother. But whatever the motivation — peace, social harmony or just a fascination with power and politics — it is this “higher political purpose” for Europe that Selmayr has turned into something of an obsession.

After two years at the European Central Bank’s legal service while completing his doctorate on euro area law, Selmayr spent three years in Brussels with the media group Bertelsmann, where he worked with his political godfather Elmar Brok, an influential if at times bumptious German MEP. Finally, in 2004, aged 34, he entered the Commission as a spokesperson for Luxembourger Viviane Reding.

There, with a touch of bureaucratic alchemy, Selmayr turned a job handling press for a telecoms commissioner into a perch of huge influence. Championing populist causes such as capping mobile roaming fees, he showed little respect for orthodoxy. Selmayr understood how to bring the limelight to Reding, shoving aside veteran bureaucrats. Within a year he was all but running the show.

“There was something implacable about him, perhaps slightly intimidating,” recalls Kip Meek, a British regulator who worked closely with Selmayr in Brussels. “He did not threaten. But he was totally in control. Politicians can be like that. Martin was an official but he played it like a politician. He knew how to use power.”

David Cameron with Angela Merkel at Chequers in October 2015. But, like Timothy, he is also an insider who doesn’t quite fit. When he left for the ECB, his father complained he was part of an anti-Deutsche Mark conspiracy. Selmayr has channels into Berlin but he is no creature of German politics; he readily admits Chancellor Angela Merkel was unhappy about his appointment. The Brits and many other Europeans worry that he is too German, too hardline and too integrationist; the Germans worry that he is not German enough.

Brussels has long made legends of its master bureaucrats. The doyen is Emile Noël, a man who ran the executive for its first 30 years. Colleagues called him “a secular European monk”. Over the years power has concentrated in the chef de cabinet, the political right hand of Commissioners and occasional purveyor of the dark arts. Some have been known for all the wrong reasons: one serving president’s chef was murdered with a hunting rifle by his estranged Italian wife.

If Selmayr is not the most powerful chef in Brussels history, he is certainly the most high profile. He has become a public figure in his own right, memorably tweeting in May last year that a G7 meeting with “Trump, Le Pen, Boris Johnson and Beppe Grillo” would be “a horror scenario that shows well why it is worth fighting populism”.

NinonDeLenclos · 14/04/2017 15:30

Part two.

Selmayr, like his predecessors, is ultimately an aide who can be overruled. But he differs from the chefs of old in one important way: he helped to make Juncker president. He pushed the novel Spitzenkandidat idea, which successfully tried to co-opt European elections to directly elect a Commission president (most EU leaders didn’t want help picking presidents). He ran Juncker’s campaign, and when his chances were looking wobbly, he helped work German politics so Angela Merkel was forced to drop her objections.

There was something implacable about [Selmayr]. He did not threaten. But he was totally in controlBritish regulator Kip MeekIt was an improbable feat. At a private lunch in January 2014, Selmayr “99 per cent” predicted that Juncker would be president. It seemed a delightfully eccentric bet; the Luxembourger had not even declared his interest. Months later, Downing St still scoffed at the idea. Yet Selmayr was right. With others, he outwitted not just Cameron, who opposed Juncker, but the German chancellor.

Timothy and Hill played an equally crucial role in protecting May at the Home Office — a politically precarious posting — and positioning her so that she was the obvious choice to succeed Cameron when he lost last year’s EU referendum. May’s lukewarm, virtually invisible support for Remain was a tactical masterstroke.

In some ways, May’s ascent is as improbable as Juncker’s. She does not play the Westminster game or have a coterie of admirers. When she makes policy speeches, they have usually been penned by Timothy. But those in Downing St insist that Timothy is not pursuing his own agenda. Indeed, May set the tone for her centrist Conservative agenda in 2002 — while Timothy was barely out of university — when she urged the Tories to shed their “nasty party” image.

Sir Christopher Meyer, Britain’s former ambassador to Washington, is a friend of Timothy’s and says: “I don’t believe for a second that Theresa May is a blank sheet of paper. He and the prime minister have a symbiotic relationship. She influences him and he influences her. It’s a two-way street.”

Both Selmayr and Timothy know how to use power: it is to be held centrally and deployed ruthlessly. According to one figure who has observed them at work, their operations foster “paranoia and mistrust”. Politicians and officials in London and Brussels have noted how grudges are borne, scores are settled.

Norman Baker, a former Liberal Democrat home office minister in the coalition government, wrote about his experiences of working with Timothy in his book Against the Grain. He says: “There was a climate of fear. Everything had to go through Nick and Fiona, and woe betide you if you didn’t do what they wanted. He shouted at my civil servants in my office. I had to complain to the permanent secretary.”

A number of ministers — Lib Dem and Tory — have observed that Hill was often seen as the more reasonable of the two. “She’s as hard as nails but you can do business with her,” Baker recalls. Timothy, by contrast, rarely broached disagreement. One Tory staffer says: “Nick is quite a shy character in some respects. Often the people who make their presence known least are the most scary because they are unknown quantities.”

Timothy defended Home Office territory from incursions from Number 10 but was eventually ousted by Cameron’s team in a row over whether he should — as a publicly funded official — be allowed to campaign for the Conservatives. He was barred from the party’s candidates list for the 2015 election. However, the May operation bided its time. The “demobilisation of the Cameroons” — as it was labelled by Cameron’s former policy chief Oliver Letwin — was only the most high-profile piece of score settling. Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s EU ambassador to Brussels, quit shortly after anonymous government figures briefed the BBC that he was being too gloomy about Brexit.

May’s centralised form of government leaves some ministers feeling diminished. “It will destroy her,” says one. Timothy and Hill vet press releases, ministerial trips and even political appointments. To some Timothy is a distant and intimidating figure, yet his unerring ability to know May’s mind is seen as an invaluable asset by others.

Even enemies of Timothy recognise his standout qualities. “He’s a seriously bright bloke — we would be worse off without him,” says one usually unsympathetic Tory staffer. “He knows what his boss thinks and he’s usually right. In meetings with him there is no pissing around.” Meyer says: “He has a steely determination. He doesn’t suffer fools gladly. You have to have people in Downing St who are enforcers.”

Even his enemies recognise Timothy’s standout qualities. ‘He’s a seriously bright bloke,’ says one usually unsympathetic Tory staffer Selmayr has also survived political assassination attempts. European Commissioners have complained about him to Juncker on various occasions since 2015, as did Cameron to other EU leaders, blaming the German official for being a roadblock in his attempt to renegotiate a better EU deal for Britain. Those who cross Selmayr fear the worst: he seems to have an ability to sniff out plots, seeing patterns everywhere. Nothing is accidental.

A master of detail, he asserts control through dominating process and access to Juncker. He pays no attention to rank or protocol and his work rate is prodigious: he once said, “I do not understand the notion of a weekend.” Faced with any hint of rebellion, he will take hostage unrelated policies, cherished priorities or travel plans. Other chefs call their Monday meeting “the weekly humiliation”. One of his foes says: “Selmayr would be a great chess player — even without the cheating.”

“Juncker is the good guy and I’m the bad guy. That’s how it is,” says Selmayr. In the college the 27 European Commissioners — made up of former prime ministers, finance ministers, foreign ministers, even a gulag survivor — have been cowed. Resentment runs deep. One member called him “the tyrant upstairs”. Another wondered whether Selmayr could distinguish truth from fiction.

“People talk about him in this way because they fear him,” says Jan Philipp Albrecht, a Green MEP who knows Selmayr well. “Old ministers arrive in Brussels thinking they can lie back and talk about a bright future for the EU. They’re not here to play hard, and they are surprised when someone does. He’s effective. He takes it seriously and he does it for a reason.”

For the first time, Timothy and Selmayr are about to go head to head. While other figures will grab the headlines as talks progress — notably the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Britain’s Brexit minister David Davis — the two chiefs of staff will be directing strategy behind the scenes.

“[Timothy] is arguably the most important man in government, despite never having been elected, on Brexit and on nearly everything else,” says Paul Goodman.

“You cannot get around Martin Selmayr,” says a northern European “sherpa” — one of the officials doing the Brexit donkey work. “He will be taking the decisions, he’s the most important voice in there. They can convince themselves it is Barnier, but they neglect Martin at their peril.”

Selmayr pays no attention to rank or protocol and his work rate is prodigious. He once said: ‘I do not understand the notion of a weekend’ But one Brit who knows them both warns: “When it comes to the EU, there is one big difference between Martin and Nick. Martin knows what he is talking about.”

That is a worry for those in London who believe Selmayr stymied Cameron last year in trying to secure better UK membership terms to present to British voters. Cameron blamed the “ideologues and theologians” in Brussels. But a few on the EU side think more was possible, had the Commission approached the British negotiation in political terms, rather than as a legal puzzle. Selmayr “sat on his hands”, says one EU official.

Selmayr argues there was “nothing more in the drawer” for Cameron; the patience of member states was pushed to the limit. Others closely involved insist there was no ulterior motive. “I reject the notion that he tried to sabotage the deal, that he thought the union was better off without Britain,” says Jonathan Faull, the official leading those negotiations with Cameron. Like most EU leaders, Selmayr believes that Britain cannot enjoy a better deal outside the club. He also wants the EU to move ahead quickly after Brexit. Selmayr himself says it would be “foolish” to see Brexit as a good thing for Europe: “Everybody is sad about this. But it confronts us with a choice; now we can’t do anything else but move on.”

As for Timothy, he may turn out to be surprisingly pragmatic. He was a strong Brexiter but no ideologue: he tells colleagues that Euroscepticism is not the reason he entered politics. Nor is he a classic Little Englander: before the Tory leadership contest, he was learning German in honour of his fiancée Nike Trost, who works for Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority and hails from Wuppertal.

At the Home Office, May took on the Eurosceptics by deciding to remain part of the EU’s crime-fighting apparatus, including the European Arrest Warrant. Timothy is not remotely attracted by the idea of Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal in the hope that a clean break might allow it to become a kind of libertarian paradise with low taxes and light regulation. He wrote the line in May’s Tory conference speech: “Remember the good that government can do.” It is just that he wants British politicians to be in charge, whether controlling borders, redirecting regional spending or being more interventionist in foreign takeovers.

If Selmayr wants to use Brexit to push on with the European project, Timothy sees it as accelerating the need to make Britain globally competitive. Both accept that Brexit is perhaps the biggest task they will face, but they do not want to be defined by it. Perhaps they have more in common than they think. “Why would you want to have a no-deal scenario when you can work together for something better?” Timothy asks colleagues.

Sir Christopher Meyer says that Timothy does not see his role as doing “the diplomats’ job” but Selmayr says the invitation is always open for Theresa May’s chief of staff to come to Brussels. They would have a lot to talk about. “In London it’s like a bunker, it was a bunker in the Cameron times and it’s a bunker now — it’s even worse now,” he says. “It’s difficult to communicate and understand each other if you don’t come out of your closet".

Peregrina · 14/04/2017 16:00

Ninon, I am not sure what to make of all that. Except that Nick Timothy has a German fiancee. So will he lobby for a deal for EU citizens, or will he jump ship?
How will the investigation into the election fiddling affect him?

lalalonglegs · 14/04/2017 16:12

Yes, no mention at all of the fact that he is so deeply implicated in the elections expenses allegations which is odd. I suppose, if true - and it certainly looks as if it could be - then the expenses just add to his reputation as someone who will stop at nothing to win, a streetfighter (although one who likes upmarket hotels when away on business). Thanks for posting it, Ninon.

woman12345 · 14/04/2017 16:41

Peregrina The Guardian's most recent reference to it changed Timothy's involvement:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/16/pms-chief-of-staff-embroiled-in-south-thanet-election-spending-row

"PM’s chief of staff entangled in South Thanet election spending row Nick Timothy is not accused of wrongdoing but was among group of advisers based in battleground seat where spending was apparently wrongly recorded"

Whereas Channel 4 version is different as to Timothy's involvement:
www.channel4.com/news/election-expenses-new-emails-reveal-pms-top-aide-in-central-role-in-local-campaign:
"They also appear to directly contradict a previous statement issued by the Party which, when asked about Mr. Timothy’s role in South Thanet, said Mr Timothy “provided assistance for the Conservative Party’s national team”.
The Conservative Party has consistently denied that Mr Timothy worked directly on Craig Mackinlay’s local campaign against Nigel Farage in South Thanet in the 2015 General Election.
But emails seen by this programme appear to show Mr Timothy devising strategy and campaigning messages that were used by Mr Mackinlay’s local campaign.
Among the documents seen by Channel 4 News is a “message sheet” written by Mr Timothy dictating crucial arguments used to persuade voters in South Thanet to vote for the Conservative candidate."

Channel 4 also queries his campaign role and civil service role.

The Times has apologised for implicating him:
‘In a leading article about investigations into allegations of electoral fraud (“Polls Apart”, Mar 4), we wrongly said that Nick Timothy, an adviser to the prime minister, “could be directly implicated”. As we made clear in a news report published the same day (“Electoral fraud inquiry rocks No 10”, Mar 4), Mr Timothy has not been accused of any wrongdoing, and we have been informed that neither the police nor the electoral commission have asked to see him. We are happy to put the record straight and apologise to Mr Timothy for any distress caused.’
www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/03/the-times-apologises-to-nick-timothy.html

But this in New Statesman:
"Former Tory chairman Grant Shapps has alleged that Nick Timothy, the prime minister’s joint chief of staff, “orchestrated” the Stop Farage campaign and was based in the constituency for much of the election period without the proper declarations being made, as has Channel 4 News’ Michael Crick. The Tories deny this, and claim – rather unusually – that its national anti-Ukip campaign was headquartered in Thanet"
.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/03/70000-question-what-does-conservative-party-election-expenses-scandal

The NS is more recent. The Michael Crick ambush was pretty dramatic, and who knows what's really going on.

24 days left until time limit for police enquiry. It's like our Russian links investigation (The dogged campaign in US), except all we have is Michael Crick and the police. Not a peep from JC or TF, unlike the dems in the US. Sad

Peregrina · 14/04/2017 17:06

I have a horrible feeling that the election spending is all going to be buried somehow. I obviously have feelings about Farage in the South Thanet election, but the election should have been above board, and if he had won legitimately he should have taken his seat. We would then be able to see first hand how useless he was.

Swipe left for the next trending thread