Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

[RedToothBrush]

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

6. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

7. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

8. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

9. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

10. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

11. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

12. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

Someone kindly annotated the second released graph.

I'm sure the bomb can't have been a reaction to this news at all
Trump Russia

The UK national science base has seriously eroded over the last 15 years and Brexit is likely to rapidly worsen this.

In 2002, the Roberts Review reported that the UK national science base was dangerously over-reliant on the global pharma industry.

< my PhD is in a totally different field of science, but I've also mostly had to work on the continent, to find interesting projects and good pay >

The UK pharma industry remains one of the biggest sources of private R&D funding, but is declining e.g. Pfizer closing the UK’s largest private sector science R&D site at Sandwich

Losing the EMA due to Brexit removes one of the key reasons international firms had presences here.

The other main reason to site R&D in the UK is the world-class HE sector and the expertise at centres of excellence.
HE will also be hit by Brexit, as many key researchers decide to leave, or are basically forced to do so by the Home Office.

EU Agencies
atm, the costs of EU agencies like the EMA are split 28 ways.
The costs of replacement UK agencies will be borne entirely by the UK.
Almost certainly these costs will be more than 12-15% of the EU agency costs.

So in many areas, Brexit will cause higher UK spending on agencies.
This is alongside the science base being weakened.

Yes, I'm wondering if Trump can ride this out.

You'd hope it would be enough to weaken his position at the very least but ... all the "Relations with Russia are at an all-time low" + the bombs + it's those in his teams, not directly linked to him ... and his support base won't care.

It really is quite extraordinary, though. Who would have believed this was possible three years ago?

RTB Those graphs are amazing - and appalling.

Looking at the Uk trade graph, it increases veeeery slowly from 1950-1970 and then the gradient increases sharply after about 1973-1974.
Gosh, that's when we joined the EU. What a coincidence.

Ah, so discussing terrorism committed by a non-European is by definition "casually racist", is it? What a convenient way to shut down all discussion of the issue. How shall we refer to the perpetrator then? As a man? No, that would be sexist. As a mammal? No, too mammalianist.

ComfortandJoyce:
No, discussing a terrorist act and extrapolating from that that we are deluded utopians for welcoming foreigners is casually racist.

I am Irish, and members of my own family living in the UK at a certain time in history have been on the receiving end of the lazy cause and effect 'logic' you employ here.

Another sharp rise around 1992 too bigchoc. Nothing worthy of mention there maastricht

BigChoc:
Censoring names of perpetrators has been strongly recommended by some anti-terrorist experts, who actually know what motivates and encourages these failures and loners.

ComfortandJoyce:
So you've said, and I can see the argument. But that benefit would not be worth the total demolition of public trust in the media. What do you think would happen? The public would draw their own conclusions about who had committed the attacks.

It looks as if you have gone ahead and done exactly that, ComfortandJoyce. You have posted those conclusions here. Have you lost trust in the media? Or are you tuned in to some alternative media?

Seeing as its Thursday and by-election night here's a gem to get you in the mood:

www.stokesentinel.co.uk/councillor-faces-misconduct-hearing-after-sexual-comment-about-christmas-elf/story-30259404-detail/story.html
Councillor faces misconduct hearing after 'sexual comment' about Christmas elf

UKIP councillor does Bad Santa Re-Enactment.

There are two by-elections today:

Piddle Valley, West Dorset (Do it. Release your inner child)
CON
Con v Green stand off.
Cons should win easily. Should...

Coulby Newham, Middlesborough
LAB
Lab, Ind, Con, Green
This is an interesting one - there was a by-election in the same ward last May. Labour should win easily.

No question time tonight as MPs are off on their holibobs.

And after the Brexit department staked the case for Remaining In the EU, here we have Nigel Farage supporting LD policy:

Nigel Farage‏ @Nigel_Farage
We need recall and more referendums to empower people against the political class.
12:56 PM - 12 Apr 2017

Is this cos you've realised you've got to find a way for UKIP to be relevant before you become old news and consigned to the history books. I guess he's going to be campaigning for the death penalty then. Joy.

ComfortandJoyce:
...the fact that he was a loner with mental health issues in no way invalidates categorizing it as a terrorist attack. He didn't run over some people in his home town of Brimingham, but instead he drove down to the political heart of the UK, on the anniversary of the Brussels attacks, and used a mass casualty method that IS advocates for lone wolf attackers in the West. By any common sense standard, that's a terror attack. But of course some rarefied thinkers will disagree.

So disregard the Scottish bin lorry incident then. Also disregard the many incidents annually in the US where elderly drivers put their automatic cars in drive instead of reverse and end up inside shops or restaurants or ploughing into playgrounds where children are playing. Should we automatically categorise those who are older white Methodists as merely indications that it's time gramps handed over the keys to the Buick? Should we decide on the basis of the 'otherness' of the elderly drivers that they could possibly be terrorists? If you think older people can't be terrorists, aren't you guilty of ageism, or something?

Ah, I see you resort to that old chestnut, 'common sense'. Meaning what you personally believe to be true and incontrovertible, while evidence seekers are clearly indulging in 'rarefied thinking'.

Never let facts get in the way of your assumptions.

Piddle Valley....

No, I can't help myself. I just can't.

Excellent article from Chris Patten

www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/chris-patten-the-road-ahead-for-the-future-of-britain/

Looking forward to by elections in Pratt's Bottom, Nether Wallop and Titty Hill

The Thomas Mair case is most interesting.

So many people were prepared to vote for what he wanted. You would think that people would have taken a closer look at the political vision of a terrorist and asked themselves if that was really what they wanted to be associated with before casting their vote.

It is also interesting that people were so determined to cast him primarily as a person with MH issues. Of course this could be ascribed to common sense kicking in. How could his act possibly be anything to do with political thought when the majority of those who are suspicious of the 'liberal' media, are opposed to immigration, and are opposed to the EU's encroachments on national sovereignty do not go out and commit murder?

(The vast majority of Muslims and refugees do not commit murder of course, but that is possibly rarefied thinking on my part leading me up the proverbial garden path to utopia - fyi, it's left of the rhubarb patch).

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/thomas-mair-slow-burning-hatred-led-to-jo-cox-murder
Article on Mair.
The association of hardline Ulster Unionist groups with South African hardline white supremacists once again becomes apparent here. As I have posted here before, hardline Unionist links to the far right fringe in SAfrica are clear. The links are both philosophical and practical.

The most hardline mainstream Unionist party, the DUP is the party led by Arlene Foster, formerly led by the Rev Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson. It is the party upon which TM and the Conservative and Unionist Party rely to make their majority secure. The DUP gets a lot of its support from members of the Orange Order in the wake of the GFA (the men in bowler hats and orange sashes who march with fife and drum bands who march as close as they can to RC areas of NI in July, and who also march in Glasgow).
www.researchgate.net/publication/28579491_Unionist_party_competition_and_the_Orange_Order_vote_in_Northern_Ireland
The Order and the DUP:
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/inside-the-dup-domination-by-free-presbyterian-church-and-orange-order-laid-bare-30330698.html

Martin Smyth was Grand Master of the Orange Order from 1971 to 1996, crucial years in Unionist opposition to power sharing (Unionists wanted their own version of apartheid in NI, which they had enjoyed from 1921 until Direct Rule - from Westminster - in 1972). He was also a VP of the Conservative Monday Club.

Should we keep a close eye on all mentally ill people?
Should we redefine mental illness to include people who have never had a job or had a romantic relationship?
Should we include strong hostility towards immigrants as a marker?
Should we include membership of the BNP?

Should we be more concerned about hardline Ulster Unionists?
How about individual middle aged men who wear bowler hats, three piece suits and orange sashes, and march around in July every year?

Or should we just wonder about the company the Conservative Party keeps, what tail wags what dog, and admit that there may be undercurrents and elements of fascism in the current political agenda?

Or should we just wonder about the company the Conservative Party keeps, what tail wags what dog, and admit that there may be undercurrents and elements of fascism in the current political agenda?
I can't disagree.

I second Ron's recommendation about the Chris Patten article. Very well worth reading.

Wrt well known terrorist groups, organised, etc., hands up and be honest - how many people can name a Unionist terror group? (No googling please).

This question is inspired by the term 'Irish civil war' that appeared upthread, an interesting way to describe a sectarian-based conflict in an integral part of the UK, and also by reference to ETA and the IRA.

I suspect that UK media portrayal of the conflict in NI during the years of conflict coloured people's understanding of what was going on.

Were the first and most lasting casualties of the conflict the reputation of journalism, and ultimately the concept of truth?
cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/media/bairner.htm

I am opposed to restrictions on reporting. I have a strong hunch that the restriction of details (such as names) can only be a tool in the hands of government that is liable to be misused.

And as noted, such restrictions are farcical in the age of social media. The loser here is the credibility of mainstream media and of governments, who should strive to not appear to be afraid of ideas.

Without googling, was there the UDF - the Ulster Defence Force? Would they qualify as a Unionist terrorist group?

math ever since as a teenage bartender, I served a heartbroken young man, who had served in the British army and killed a northern Irish child with a rubber bullet, and was bereft with grief, I have known that the 'troubles' as all wars are an evil to be avoided at all costs.

I used the term 'Irish civil war'. I had thought that the 'troubles' is a euphemism, but you are right, it's a British mainland war, and should be regarded as such. Still is.

There were the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF) too.
DH comes from a US/Irish family firmly on the Unionist side and he does so like to whitewash this stuff. We don't talk about Irish politicsany more.

Also the UVF.

No Googling on either of the above, but we did study the Troubles in school in Holland, in RE.

There's the UDA, and the UVF.

The Ulster Defence Association is a large loyalist paramilitary and vigilante group. On ceasfire since 2007, but there are some factions still active to a certain degree.

Ulster Volunteer Force, a large loyalist vigilante group. Declared goal to oppose Irish Republicanism. Officially ended armed campaign in 207, but still involved in inter-loayalist feuds, drugs and organised crime.

we did study the Troubles in school in Holland, in RE
interesting as I'm pretty sure it's not taught in Britain.

Mistigri: Something that the UK was reasonably good at compared to much of Europe, until 23/6/2016.
Comfortand Joyce: We'll continue to be far better at it than most of Europe long into the future.

Are you trying to seriously suggest that the UK can do far better than the EU when it comes to preventing terrorism?
Or that going it alone will not cause immense issues for both the UK and everyone else?

Maybe all of this escaped your notice:
Birmingham was the birthplace of Britain’s first suicide bomber, the residence of a financier of the Sept. 11 attacks, and the place where Al Qaeda hatched a plot to blow up a commercial airliner in 2006. When a masked member of the Shabab, the Somali extremist group, celebrated the murder of the soldier Lee Rigby in a 2013 video, he listed Birmingham as the first source of its fighters.

The man who is believed to have recruited the militant known as Jihadi John, the Islamic State executioner with the King’s English accent, was from Birmingham, as was his closest associate. Other prominent militants who have come through the city’s underground networks include Abdelhamid Abaaoud, organizer of the 2015 Paris attacks, and Mohamed Abrini, a Belgian national who helped plot the 2016 Brussels attacks.

In 2014, Birmingham was at the center of a so-called Trojan Horse plot in which, it was alleged, a group of Islamist extremists had sought to infiltrate and take over two dozen state schools. A recent report by the Henry Jackson Society, a politically conservative research organization, found that one in 10 convicted Islamist militants in Britain come from five Birmingham neighborhoods.
www.nytimes.com/2017/03/26/world/europe/birmingham-britain-islam-jihadis.html?_r=0

When the economy tanks after Brexit, even more pockets of blight and deprivation will spring up.

Your comment is Brexit thinking drawn to absurd lengths.

Is the UK going to fight them on the beaches?