Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

[RedToothBrush]

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

6. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

7. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

8. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

9. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

10. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

11. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

12. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

punks not pinks ooh the censors.

Which I think is a cloak for racism
Its certainly a way of excusing it. Like the example re the Irish on here, it was their fault because of the IRAs existance. Or the islamophobia based on terrorism conveniently omitting that islamophobia has also gone on for centuries, its ok because its their fault. And once that line is blurred, you aren't far from skin tone issues.

Plus of course anti-British sentiment is nothing to do with behaviour of certain Brits, like the Leicester fans. That would be wrong.

One good thing from all this, is that everyone who is 'other' ed is seeing it for what it is, across the board. Jews and Moslems are working together to fight racism in the US. I'm hoping for more Mosque Tea parties here and how about some Ceilidhs for peace and the EU? I'd bring a bottle of stout to that!

And once that line is blurred, you aren't far from skin tone issues.

Check out any thread on Twitter where terrorism is being discussed, and where pictures of attackers are available: it comes back to skin-tone very quickly.

RTB I'd like to give leavers the benefit of the doubt, but they repeatedly show that this isn't merited. I'm not saying that all leavers are racist of course, just that almost all of those who care about it enough to post on social media are.

To go back to something which was said a few threads back. Juncker does in fact hold an elective office. Cameron voted against him as it happens.

I for one don't argue that May is unelected. She won her office by the procedure which had been laid down. At the final stage she was effectively returned unopposed because the other candidate dropped out - but those were the rules.

What I do argue is that she has no mandate of her own, and she seems to be regarding the mandate that Cameron won as something of a menu which she can pick items off as she pleases. So no support for the Single Market, but she gave Hammond a kick in the teeth when he went back on his pledge about taxes (NIC). Then she asks the kitchen for a special which wasn't on the menu (grammar schools).

Quick gloss on the 2014 EU migrant paper RTB. 2.2 m of 3 m EU migrants in work. Under half of the workers come from "Western and Southern Europe". So that is probably roughly 0.5 m graduates, concentrated in London (since unlike the rest of the country the London split is 60% EU15 to 40% rest and over 30% of the 3 m are in London). If the London economy cools somewhat then it becomes a much more attractive place for Northern graduates to migrate to and the North/South divide starts to rebalance, instead of growing ever wider. In short I am not convinced by the graduate skills gap argument.

So that is probably roughly 0.5 m graduates, concentrated in London (since unlike the rest of the country the London split is 60% EU15 to 40% rest and over 30% of the 3 m are in London).

I think you are making unwarranted assumptions. Many STEM graduates from the EU work in manufacturing, which is by and large not in London for obvious reasons. My employer's blue sky R&D centre for example has many Spanish employees. It would not be possible to replace these with UK graduates, because there are not enough to go round (we also employ lots of UK chemists; I work in a department where half the staff have chemistry PhDs from UK universities). The company has a tough time recruiting as it is and some of the research work has moved off shore because it is so hard to bring Asian researchers to the UK.

What I do argue is that she has no mandate of her own, and she seems to be regarding the mandate that Cameron won as something of a menu which she can pick items off as she pleases. So no support for the Single Market, but she gave Hammond a kick in the teeth when he went back on his pledge about taxes (NIC).

Yes. It's a very inconsistent approach to her "mandate", based primarily on what the Daily Mail will kick up a fuss about.

Misti my figures, such as they are, come from

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06077

The ONS also produced a data set yesterday, which Iooks to be saying the same.

ONS stats for completeness. Just under 900,000 EU14 migrants employed with just under 60% graduates (inline with my 500k guesstimate). 40% of EU14 work in professional jobs. Significant percentage working in roles they are overqualified for. 25% of total work in financial services but only about 10% in manufacturing. Surprising to see they are underrepresented in the public sector.

Loads of pretty graphs and charts.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/migrationandthelabourmarketuk/2016

howabout Northern graduates already move south, every single one of them that I know and why does that rebalance the North /South divide? As far as I am concerned the braindrain South is part of the problem. The only solution is to make the North a more attractive proposition not London poorer. Making London poorer makes the rest of the country poorer. As an example the loss of back office jobs in financial services will hit Leeds, Edinburgh, Newcastle and Colchester to my knowledge.

The only solution to the problem that I have heard that offered any promise was the one proposed by the Head of the Royal Society (himself an immigrant) that we create a transport infrastructure that links places like Barnsley and Hull to Science tech hubs centred on the existing resources in Sheffield, Manchester and Leeds with measures in place to encourage ideas and knowledge to be turned into viable businesses. However that requires both investment and the free markets cement of talent, so it definitely is not anywhere near May's Brexit agenda....

Free movement , sorry butter fingers on a phone....

Loads of Northern graduates end up in London anyway.

You certainly don't want the London economy to cool somewhat as it would mean spending cuts in the rest of the country as London provides 30% of all tax in the UK, but takes 11% of public spending.

howabout I'm not arguing with your data, but the assumptions you've made.

Do you really not think there is a skills gap? Do you work in an industry recruiting STEM graduates?

I would add that I have seen similar infrastructure projects across Asia. It is part of what fuels China's growth. Chengdu in China is surrounded by satellite towns connected by high speed rail all enabling the for instance assembly of your iPad and iPhone, or the current project to develop the Pearl River Estuary zone still further with a 70km bridge / tunnel. Economic growth does not happen by accident or magic, it needs to be nurtured........

Agree with ron, most STEM
graduates head south already. This is because the number of STEM jobs in the north has shrunk in recent years (outside of Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh), with several big Pharma sites closing as research has moved to Southeast Asia.

Most STEM jobs are now based in universities which are major employers in many post industrial cities (e.g. Hull, Bradford, Huddersfield etc). These are likely to suffer a significant hit from Brexit (reduced numbers of students, reduced research funding, reduced access to research networks, impact of regulatory changes as a result of leaving the EU, diminished reputation internationally because of the behaviour of our populace/government). Which means less jobs.

I don't think the small number of jobs available due to a reduction in immigration will even remotely compensate for the loss of jobs in STEM fields, in industry and academia, due to Brexit. I envisage a future where STEM graduates will
need to move abroad to seek employment. This was increasingly the case anyway, but Brexit will exacerbate the situation.

Should add that we have an imbalance in the STEM field- too many Bioscience and chemistry grads and not enough maths/physics.

There probably won't be anymore jobs available due to reductions in immigration, it doesn't cause unemployment in domestic workers.

Having been involved (as a management consultant) in the past with Regional Development and with a dh who has been responsible for/involved with attracting inward investment for over 20 years, the one thing that this government (and to be fair, neither did recent previous ones either) does not do well is have a coherent and effective Regional Development policy if it has one at all

I remember when I was studying Economics at Uni, one of the ways to reduce the "natural" rate of unemployment in the infamous Philips curve was to reduce regional disparities and to increase overall opportunities.

That lesson seems to have been forgotten

To give the EU its due, part of the thinking behind the "subsidies" to the poorer countries is that in the long term it will benefit everyone.

At the simplest level: if a country's GDP improves, then it has more money with which to do business. It might export more - but it is also likely to import more.

It is a similar situation with regard to all graduates entering business careers. Most are sucked into the London centric services industry which is now set to be hit by Brexit. Whilst most employers have being a global business as a strategic aim and therefore have a global outlook and diversity as part of the recruitment template still the majority of graduate recruits are British and they recruit across the country. Those grad schemes are already being cut back as part of the contingency plans being put into place for Brexit. www.ft.com/content/9b72d348-7050-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

Well, quite. Incidentally, most STEM graduates are used to working with people from all over the world. I have always worked in labs with at least 30-40% overseas workers. I've never felt threatened or bothered that they were competing for my jobs, instead I've always taken it as a sign that the quality of research is good enough that we're able to draw workers from all over the world. It's a good thing, a sign of prosperity. Yeah, the wages are not what they should be but I don't think anyone thinks that's the fault of non-U.K. Workers. It's chronic underinvestment and the recession. Wages were shite before we hand increased immigration

Bolshybookworm - you'll be pleased to know that ds is planning on doing Maths/Physics at Uni

He also has no plans to move down South.

he does however want to be a professional rugby player he actually might succeed but isn't neglecting his studies in the interim

We're already trying to persuade dd to become a mathematician and she's only just started school

Maths grads earn A LOT more than bio grads (for me, as the latter).

Ooooh Prettybird I'm in M.C too!

I agree with you on the EU funding poorer countries, they will import more.

If you look at our net contribution, its almost completely equalled by our exports to Poland, never mind what companies like Tesco and others get from repatriating profits from their operations there.

Our exports to Central Europe equal our entire gross contribution including the rebate.