The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandLady]

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Article 50 has been triggered (finally!).
Now we move onwards to the future 🍻

All welcome, as ever...

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My last post was probably a bit grumpy for the Arms. Sorry, just truly fed up with this country. I'm sure when we look back in 50 years, EU membership will be the least of our worries if we carry on the way we are going.

Well I disagree with Enoch Powell on his immigration stance.......and Farage.. ...

disagrees with me on immigration policy
If it's OK to post here, the generally accepted definition of racism is power plus prejudice.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prejudice_plus_power

Watching the opening speeches in parliament, I'm actually quite hopeful about this set-up with an almost 50/50 split.

Lots of opportunity for the worst of things to be voted down, and the best of things put through - with the difficult conundrums thrashed out & shaped for the best of the country.

to all posters in here, regardless of political or Brexit stripes.

Cheers Charm

This is serious shit guys.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4601452/Surging-price-butter-threatens-France-s-pastry-makers.html

Not my croissants! Can the landlady here guarantee supply on our breakfast menus?!

Bit weighty for the Arms this morning, but whilst I wait for my sausages to cook, (croissants I hope back on the menu next week) heres a snippet not picked up by many yesterday.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/eu-migration-showdown-divide-deepens-brussels-launches-legal/

So, Brussels starting to set out its stall for 2020 cuts to the eastern bloc? Brexit planning?
Poland, Hungary Czech Republic, condition of entry was to take up the euro, and still refuse. They still refuse to allow EU law to supercede national law. Will those eastern states change their minds by 2020? Absolutely not.

If Brussels cant control the economic, monetary, and legal framework of a member state, where does that leave the member states they can?

My food for thought this morning. The self interested captains of the great EU ship, having set a course into certain iceberg collision and subsequent sinking, are running around demanding the utterly inadequate numbers of lifeboats available, are non-smoking. Great news for the health lobbyists who hope they have a seat in a lifeboat.

Agree Caroline. I am really looking forward to seeing the outcome of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic refusing to budge on their stance. I don't recall Merkel asking for member states' opinions before opening the immigration floodgates. Her choice - so her problem.

I wonder how long it will be before other member states become sick of the EU demanding control of the running of their countries?

The original idea of the EEC made sense, what a shame it has turned into a behemoth with unaccountable, unelected leadership, money grabbing and crazed with power.

Formal talks start today - 'a deal like no other'

Finally feeling like we are off after a bloody slow start

Yay! Well perhaps a slightly smaller .....yay.

Talk about a wet weekend in Wales. (Apologies Wales)

However, I think in the spirit of great british fortitude, we will only be subjected to media hysteria 1 week in every month. Whoopee! (thank heavens for small mercys).

The good news, the EU have set the agenda. Thats disasterous news for any who were holding out the slightest glimmer that there may be a 2nd referendum. 2nd referendum absolutely impossible now, as the 'divorce' is to be agreed first, and the 'maintenance' settlement to be agreed second. The EU will not enter into the 2nd stage discussions, unless the 1st stage is formally agreed. So Id guess we're now looking at two parliamentary motions. 1 the divorce, followed by a 2nd re the settlement.

So good news 2. No divorce agreement, no discussion on trade, so at least we wont have to argue the toss over, well if x and y are agreed, then we get z. I like it.

The emotive hot potato of immigration and rights to remain, get tackled first. That, IMO, is a good move. I have no doubt whatsoever, that the deal breaker with the british public is the reinstatment of our border control and the removal of EU freedom of movement rights, so despite what appears a rather wet start today, Im now looking forward to the immigration/right to remain/border bun fight up front.

At least we wont have to wait a year or so, as I reckon, this first stage will either all be tied up nice and neat before winter, put before parliament and either it is indeed acceptable to all of us (so no riots) or Corbyns in charge and parliament is in utter disarray and couldnt agree a christmas lunch menu if they sat for a year. (thats not neccesarily bad either....the clock keeps ticking)

So Im feeling rather positive today. Its all about border control and I think the government, any government know how we feel about that. If remainers wish to block a parliamentary motion because theyre not happy with the terms re removal of 'freedom of movement', so be it. Block away. Indeed, Im erring on the side of tactical delays eating into the timescales for trade and settlement deals, as being a good thing, whoever instigates those delays.

So yes, despite the utter domestic political turmoil we appear to be in at the moment, the wheels are indeed moving, and theres no going back. Cheers to that one.

Oh, forgot to mention Ireland. Its a Cyprus deal. Anyone care to take a wager?

Oh and Independance Day is 647 days away. Hip hip hoorah! .

Any thoughts on this? I thought after yesterday, it was agreed would be out of the single market and customs union.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/19/germany-hints-soft-brexit-compromise-amid-fears-theresa-may/

This is the Corbyn fear Lovelybath. Its a shift to help gain public support from the moderates for TM, as the risk of Corbyn to the EU is huge. They, like many here, didnt think he was ever going to be a serious factor. He is now.

I posted this on another thread a few days ago, seems a good place to repost it.

======

"Would Corbyn as PM fill me with dread and fear re Brexit? No. Corbyn will simply do to the UK, what Hollande did to France. Corbyn, a professional protester and agitator, I could be easily persuaded to hand over the reins to him. (Plus he has promised to bring my retirement age back down...Yay!)

But there you go JC, now what are you going to do? Youre not in the student unions now.

As Macrons tory star is rising in France, the EUs blue eyed boy is promising dramatic cuts in the public sector finances, castration of French union laws, (zero hours contracts coming to a Ville near you), reductions in corporate taxes to boost the fat tory wallets (as if relaxed employment laws to hire and fire arent enough) add a pledge to tackle the 'work shy', and whilst hes shied away from raising retirement age (unlike all other EU states), hes promised to re-jig the state formula so you retire on a ratio of what youve contributed. Indeed, all the things the agitated masses are protesting against here in the Uk. Could we indeed be heading towards a UK socialist nirvana?

Wheres Brother Corbyn on Brexit? Who knows.

Wheres the EU on Brother Corbyn? Well, Richard Bransons forever grateful hes sipping cocktails on Necker Island (though a tad concerned about having his Virgin Train empire 'compulsory purchased') and the vast majority of EU corporate wealth will be following him.

The exodus of French wealth from France during Hollandes reign, will be nothing compared to the Corbyn Exodus.

Some seriously fat EU wallets are about to be pilfered"

I see, and because in the Labour manifesto they think it is possible to stay in the single market and customs union and still end fedora of movement as well (have our cake and eat it?) whereas those are incompatible..

Its not so much the Labour manifesto Lovelybath. There are serious concerns that Corbyn, McDonnell, Momentum and the SWP are indeed very succesfully rabble rousing (on the back of recent horrific events) and indeed could infact bring the government down. In many peoples view, thats not a bad thing.

However, in short, for Corbyn and McDonnell to then implement their policies as a sitting government, would mean filling Parliament with union supporting hard left MPs. They are very very left wing. That is quite simply an impossible task (short of a Cromwellian civil war and forcefully removing any opposition). The vast majority of Labour MPs privately dont support him (they own too many houses) and the vast majority of Tory MPs dont support him. (they own too many houses).

Thats where this falls down. Corbyn may indeed get the top job, with a very successful peoples revolution campaign, but he will never be able to get support in Parliament as he point blank refuses to meet the Labour moderates in the middle. That then doesnt just leave us in domestic chaos, but brexit chaos also, as nothing will get passed through Parliament.

An A50, no deal brexit, becomes a very real possibility. For all the hot air, coming out of Brussels that a 'no deal' is worse for us, its not.

They cannot rescind A50, as (thank you Gina Miller) we had an act of parliament to serve it. The EU cant rescind or even accept a rescinded A50, as where does that leave any other member state wishing to serve notice to leave? This government wants to leave, but the next one may not? so whilst were serving A50, could you just sit on it for a couple of decades until we REALLY want to leave....or stay.....?

The EU council, are slowly waking up to the fact that their meddling in UKs domestic politics, being part of the referendum scaremongering rhetoric, could quite possibly hugely backfire.

Everything could change in a week Lovely, thats politics for you, but for now, Im happy that talks have started as they have, the immigration/border control/residency bun fight will happen up front. If Davies doesnt deliver a fully controlled border proposal, then I for one will join the Corbyn 'no deal' camp.

The single market issue has to wait. Or so they say..... this week.....

Could well be that how Macron and Merkel perform domestically and coordinating the Eurozone over the next couple of years has far more effect on the UK than TM, JC and / or Brexit.

If they kickstart growth sufficiently then the UK could well have FoM in reverse.

Interesting references to how much housing wealth MPs have. Sorting out the UK housing market would sort out a lot else very quickly.

Interesting, thanks. I suppose the main thing is, the EU does overall want us to stay, or Germany is saying about this soft brevet option- overall it would be better for them is there was an agreement rather than the 'no deal' option as well. So that in itself is good. Just trying to think of the positives here, regarding the situation if Labour were to get in. It is all a worry though.

Loads to be cheerful about guys!
Macrons 'new' France doesnt exist yet (oh theres trouble brewing there) and just as the EU thought they were having a good run, Italy fcks it up again. 20 billion euros to bailout their banks! Eye watering.

Gosh werent the shrills loud today.

The 'establishment' were out in force, doom mongering, soft brexiting , and even Soros popped by to repeat his "people can change their mind " message.

Why all the noise guys? Its only day 2 of negotiations! Youre not starting to believe the shrills are you?

Uh oh, as if miscalculations 1 and 2 werent enough, (referendum, GE) are they posturing over miscalculation number 3? That the nation has indeed changed its mind and Hammonds the man to lead us to salvation?

Oh dear if they are. Corbyn will be PM before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Corbyn (our future PM ) started clearing his decks in preparation. Gerard Coyne from Unite has been sacked today. A critic of Len McClusky advising on shadow cabinet positions (hes got a point, I didnt know Union execs recruited cabinet ministers), he was sacked in his words by a "kangaroo court". Oh dear.

Lucky for us, Red Len has got mainstream MPs next in his sights. Yep, democratically elected Labour MPs can be de-selected by the party executive. As Len tells us, 'to better reflect the party membership'.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/18/len-mccluskey-disloyal-mps-asking-for-it-will-be-held-to-account

So alls bubbling along nicely. Expect a lot more noise, indeed this is going to get worse than the run up to the referendum. Heavens, have a , pull up a comfy chair, theres nothing needs doing just yet.

Oh and 646 days to go. The clock keeps ticking

Nice speech Maam. Chin chin.

Haven't heard it yet but I'll have a drink as I'm melting 🍺

Always good to see the elites doing well
Chin, chin indeed.

I liked the queens outfit, reminded me of a certain flag....

She's trolling TM so hard...🤣