who will be the Nexit?

[springflowers11]

France? will there even be an Eu in 5 years?

In the early seventies when I was a student, I shared a house with a Channel Islander. She said that all those years later, a neighbour was still shunned by many in the community because she had slept with the Germans. Realistically, it's only going to be people who are now 80 plus, who will have first hand memories.

That's true, but for people whose relatives had direct experience of occupation, there will be strong "family memories". My DH and his parents' views about Europe have I think been influenced by their family history: when DH was a child, his childminder was a Belgian resistance heroine who married an English airman and moved to the UK. My French neighbours' views are coloured by their family experience of occupation and resistance, and this is true for people too young to have experienced it directly. Where I live, the resistance is a huge aspect of the "collective memory" of local people.

Ireland has benefited from the long game talked about upthread, for years we were net recipients, and got substantial EU aid for infrastructure and education. We now, and will likely continue to pay more in. Of course its more complex than economics also, the EU assisted in our journey to a modern, liberal society. I'm surprised approval is not higher than 80% actually.

Where I live, the resistance is a huge aspect of the "collective memory" of local people.

I think this is true all over, and helps to explain the baby boomer anti-EU or in reality anti-German feeling in the UK. Growing up in the fifties my parents' conversation was dominated by the war. Less so in the sixities. DM was 17 when the war started, so once DB and I reached that age, any complaints about life were met with 'when I was your age, there was a war on'. By the time I was 22, so 1973, my mother was just about to start up with 'when I was your age...' when suddenly she stopped herself and said '' ....the war was finished", and I would say that it was only at that point that she put the war to rest.

But 'we won the war' is a huge part of the collective memory of people of 55 plus. It will change - freedom of movement and the ability to work in other EU countries is a big part of the experience of my DCs now in their 30s.

I disagree that there is any generalised animosity to Germany. Quite the opposite, it's the French who seem to wind up the British more 😀 I think the Germans are regarded as much more like us. Maybe because of the royal family connections? There's always been a special relationship between Germany and UK. My mother feels the same so it's not just a generational thing.

Olympia - my father refused to buy German or Japanese goods. He was no Royalist, partly because they were German, I suspect! I personally think that the Germans are more like us, but many don't, and you get a lot of Francophiles in this country.

When I lived in Germany the Germans couldn't have been nicer. I think they have really taken on board all this unity thing, and being German they always do things to the nth degree! I think they are like us only more efficient and less innovative/dipsy. Would make perfect partners 😀

I happen to agree with you, I have German friends and they are charming and we have much in common.

I was just trying to work out why there was so much europhobia from many of the baby boomer generation (not me though) and I think that 'we won the war' could be part of the narrative. When Germany was enjoying its wirtschaftswunder in the sixties, I can remember the older generation grumbling in terms of "it's not fair that they are doing well, we won the war".

Who was the poster asking for evidence that EU nationals were already leaving?

www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/01/nhs-recruits-special-status-brexit-eu-nationals

"17,197 EU staff, including nurses and doctors, left last year, compared with 11,222 for 11 months in 2014."

"A total of 2,348 doctors from the 27 other EU states left NHS England between July and September 2016 compared with 1,281 in the same period in 2015. That is a rise of 83%."

And, for instance in Germany, they are starting to sound very much like they will use this as a stick to beat the likes of Merkle with. German elections this year

except that if they beat up Merkel they will get Schulz, who was president of the European Parliament until recently. And he will also be very bad news for us - I am not a CDU supporter but I selfishly hope Merkel hangs on for another term in office. Schulz is obviously very pro-European and he will want to punish the UK.

I don't however think that most European people want to punish the UK - they probably have little or no interest in the UK being in the EU - if they wanted to come here to improve their English they can always go to Ireland/Malta/Cyprus instead if the shutters come down on freedom of movement. Everyone else - they really don't care. Would we particularly care if say France had decided to leave? The people who have gites in the Dordogne might, but it would have zero effect on my day to day life.

Realistically, it's only going to be people who are now 80 plus, who will have first hand memories.

True, I'm in Italy and my parents-in-law were here during the war - people were shot on street corners. You don't forget that in a hurry.

To have served in WW2 you now have to be in your 90s, to be able to remember the war as a child in your 80s.

There are so few of them left that their opinions won't have mattered much in this vote. Their children though...

Their embittered entitled children? I have said so many times now that brexit will be a hard slap in the face to people who believe they are superior to other nationali ties

A slap to the face and no one around to wipe their arses when they are too old to care for themselves.

And their children too, when we make them withdraw equity from their homes to pay for their care...

I do know people in their 40s who have privately agreed with their spouses that they will not help family members if/when they get infirm as they disagree with the fact they voted leave even after being begged to vote remain due to the impact on business grandkids etc.

This will bite so many on the arse.

Genuinely I think people will be asked, if they have assets worth x amount to pay for their own care.

Thinking about this again, one thing the Brexit might change is that if another country turns up to 'renegotate membership' as Cameron did before the referendum, the EU will make sure they get some decent concessions to avoid another country going.

Renegotiations and concessions like this?

I do know people in there 40s who have privately agreed with their spouses that they will not help family members if/when they get infirm as they disagree with the fact they voted leave even after being begged to vote remain due to the impact on business grandkids etc

I wouldn't be particularly proud of knowing people like that.

Creepy they are actually very nice people who's businesses are already suffering due to brexit.

It's their choice.There is nothing that says children have to assist their families.

My point is seething resentments like this won't go away in two years. The deed is done for some

Do you take it that personally about how you vote in general?

My Dad is a staunch Tory voter. Brought 4 of us up after my Mum passed away. 3 of us are Labour voters.

I'm proud that I was raised to understand and accept that people have different opinions.

I don't understand why my Dad votes Tory or why he voted leave. I certainly wouldn't abandon him when he gets too old or if he gets ill though. That's horrendous.

Just to cheer you all up. The FTSE hit an all time high of 7434, and UK domestic takeovers hit the highest first-quarter total for a decade, as "Brexit and The Trump Bump trigger an M&A bounce" (Evening Standard".

Carry on.

Yes, the FTSE has bounced, but investment in the UK has stalled, many UK based firms are at a lower price than they were prior to the vote. The big rises are in firms that make most of their profits in non GBP currency, because they will make higher GBP profits.

The Trump bump is a bit of a myth, US stock markets having been steadily rising since 2009, low unemployment and steady GDP growth have induced more optimism, this combined with the low taxes for the rich and corporate tax cuts have caused a sightly higher than expected growth. BUT only to do with optimism, rather than anything Trump has done, or achieved, because of course he hasn't enacted any fiscal policy yet. Of course the idea that corp taxes will be 15% rather than 33% will increase stock market optimism.

Yet again factually incorrect.