who will be the Nexit?

[springflowers11]

France? will there even be an Eu in 5 years?

Your niece will sadly not be able to remain in the UK as a Greek citizens once we brexit. The dire situation in Greece is complex i also have family there. Greece is a failing country despite the EU not because of it. Saying that the EU has not handled Greece well at all, especially with regards to the refuge crisis. In fact they dealt with the refuge crisis appallingly but what you gonna do if countries such as the UK refuse to welcome people fleeing for their lives and don't pull together. The Uk has a lot to answer for. Especially as the refuge crisis was in part caused by Blair's war. But when people are fleeing for their lives, we turn the other way.

Aside from the name calling, this is a interesting idea - that other countries will leave.

Until a year ago, the idea that any country could leave was insane, and now it's happening. If (and it's a big if!) our economy doesn't tank, if in 10 years or so we appear to be doing ok outside the EU, then the fear attached to leaving will be reduced and there's more likely to be calls to leave when the next financial crisis hits Southern Europe.

I wouldn't say France would be next, but then I wouldn't have put money on the UK being the first to go!

I would have absolutely put my money on the UK being the first to leave kitten

misspriggy I think that Greece has been treated terribly by the EU on the whole but I agree with cretan that it's more problems are more than just the EU. As are Italy's problems. And the UKs austerity is nothing to do with the EU. That is not to minimize the response by the EU to Greece which I think is shocking. I also think the refugee crisis response by the EU has been appalling. And seeing the volumes of people fleeing to Italy for a variety of reasons and seeing the U.K.'s feeble response also makes me fume. None of this makes me want to see the collapse of the EU because what we have seen in Greece would be nothing compared to the scale of what we would see across Europe should the whole thing collapse.

All the Europeans I know (and I live on the Continent) wouldn't dream of it.

I've met one French person who was enthusiastic about Brexit. One, in nine months...

This is sounding a bit like 'how did leave happen as I don't know anyone who voted for it' territory

The very vocal leave voters in my work place (all 2 of them) have said nothing in the last couple of days. I think they realised how angry and upset people are and don't want to poke the hornets nest.

This is sounding a bit like 'how did leave happen as I don't know anyone who voted for it' territory

Know loads of Leave voters piglet. Wasn't surprised by the result. Don't get the same feeling in Italy. Or from what I read in other countries press or from talking to nationals of those countries. I appreciate this is just my experience but it doesn't seem an isolated one.

piglet I live in a French town where a significant proportion of people voted for the FN in the last european elections. I understand the echo chamber argument (all my British friends and colleagues are remainers) but it doesn't really apply here. I have a lot of fairly committed PS friends, who are big fans of Hamon and his robot tax, but none are anti--EU. Many are farmers and know which side their bread is buttered on ...

Just to provide some data, because datas all weve got, not anecdotal individual perceptions through hugely tinted glasses;

This research was done pre-referendum. As with the UK, most are absolutely divided down the middle.

www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/

On french farmers misti, Im surprised as a resident, youre missing this. A french farmer commits suicide every 2 days. (Department of public health). Clearly the reasons why, can be debated for decades, however, using a generally british sweeping generalisation that french farmers are well looked after by the eu subsidies etc, is wrong. French farmers have been squeezed to their absolute limits by open imports from other eu member states.

invs.santepubliquefrance.fr//fr/Publications-et-outils/Rapports-et-syntheses/Travail-et-sante/2013/Surveillance-de-la-mortalite-par-suicide-des-agriculteurs-exploitants

Painting pictures that all spanish, italians, french, dutch, danish etc are utterly committed to the EU and think the brits are stupid and racist, is waaaaaay off the reality. Half of them dont.

PS Ive piped up, because the plight of french farmers upsets me, and burying this issue is wrong.

As tragic as it is suicide amongst farmers is an international issue running across most nations

m.huffpost.com/us/entry/5610279

I think it's disingenuous to link it to being an issue linked to the EU

Not at all. (disingenous that is) French farmers have been marching on Paris and protesting for years about the CAP and the impact of falling prices on their livelihoods. However, I will accept, that any account directly from a french farmer, could be classed as anecdotal and we'll debate for ever and a day. Disingenuos it isnt.

I'm afraid linking the awful suicide rates amongst French farmers to a thead about the EU is disengenious

It is a global issue and far more nuanced and intricate than you are laying out. Applying some data to one set of people. Implying a link to treatment by the EU without viewing the issue far wider is attempting to make causal links that arent established

I can't see any other country leaving any time soon. One day, maybe. But not immediately.

I think there is an appetite to reform the eu in some member states and Brexit might well give that movement some more impetus. But I think most people feel they're better off in and bringing change about that way than out and having no say in stuff that is still going to affect them.... just as it will us, by the way. If we want to trade we're almost without a doubt going to have to accept a big proportion of eu standards - in agriculture, for instance. We just aren't going to have any say in what they are any more. Well done everyone!

...and as I said, any account directly from a french farmer will be classed as anecdotal. Youre absolutely correct that no data exists regards 'cause'. But do keep an open mind, regards data, and what data is or isnt available.

For example, (completely digressing here) the UK government know where every cow, sheep, pig is in the UK. Ask the UK government how many serving and ex-service personnel have committed suicide, they havent a clue. Nor do they want to know. There are various reasons for that, 1/ the public wouldnt stomach the facts 2/ the impact on Army recruitment and morale 3/ The subsequent demand to act
(The US are leading the way on this however, and are now collating some of the best data in the world regards military/veteran mental health and suicide rates. The UK still not interested.)

My point being, just because data isnt available, doesnt mean no issue exists.
The individual cause of a person taking their own life, will always subjective, emotive and disputed.

The french farmers however, have not been shy at publicising their plight. If they say they are marching on Paris due to staggering drops in commoditie prices, over production in the eu from cheaper eastern states, and their subsequent inability to make a living wage, who are you to say they are lying? Not only that, but the french government have indeed responded to the crisis by instigating controls over imports and production, to elevate prices.

But perhaps youd like to demonstrate that there is no link whatsoever, in which case, Id be far more content and support can be directed at a social issue rather than an economical one. Your view would also save the french government millions.

It will be one of the main, original countries to leave next.
When I say main, I thinkthe next to leave will be one of the countries that are having to 'carry' the poorer, newer, 'joined late' countries.

I suppose it was a fair system when it first started out because all the countries were equal economy wise, but now it's got too big and the newer, poorer members are proving to be a big drain on the others. They don't contribute as much.

The whole thing's outgrown itself and the sooner it comes to an end the better.

Viva la Nexit!

Until a year ago, the idea that any country could leave was insane, and now it's happening. If (and it's a big if!) our economy doesn't tank, if in 10 years or so we appear to be doing ok outside the EU, then the fear attached to leaving will be reduced and there's more likely to be calls to leave when the next financial crisis hits Southern Europe.

I wouldn't say France would be next, but then I wouldn't have put money on the UK being the first to go!

Others will leave.
It's just a matter of when.

I can't. I need it.
Without it I may become saddened, devastated and depressed about what's happening.

Draylon, I think a hugely under-debated area has been the geographic impact. If we could drive 5 hours to Monte Carlo, or Florence, I think the vote may have gone the other way.

As to the rest of your post, I utterly disagree based on stats and data. The UK are the 3rd highest contributor to the EU. We have 73 seats. However, if you look at Polands contribution, 3% of eu budget its lower than say Belgiums 4%. Poland have 51 seats, yet the Belgians only have 21.

If you wish to throw around 'punching above our weight' please use far better examples than the UK.

I don't think anyone else because they all get a pretty good deal from the EU. I think Germany and France will get a little tetchy because of their increase in contributions, but they will pay up and it won't affect them much politically.

I do think MEPs and the EU beaurocracy will be a bit more circumspect about the laws they make. Losing the UK will cost everyone something and maybe they will rethink some of the more extreme ideas. Too late for us though.

I think it depends on how we do. If we bomb, then nobody else will want to know. If we thrive the net contributors, with higher contributions, will question the value of the EU.

I don't think that the rest of the 27 all get a better deal than we had Olympia. Maybe the perception of how good the deal is better in other EU members.