Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

Arthur Scargill is not Dennis Skinner..

The attempted secrecy from the WM Government versus the transparency of the EU is probably a good illustration of the way that the next 2 years will proceed

Oops, confusion. Of course I was taking about Skinner. Sorry.

May just said that the UK now needs its 'liberal democratic' values.

Cut to Tim Farron, Tom Brake and Sarah Olney sat next to each other wetting themselves laughing.

That meeting yesterday amongst Torys in areas under threat from LDs must have been serious then. May sounds almost worried.

George Eaton‏*@georgeeaton*
Theresa May sounding more conciliatory tone: "The world needs the liberal, democratic values of Europe".

Boris Johnston "We want to back a strong EU, buttressed by a strong UK, with a new relationship, a deep and special partnership, between the EU and the UK. And I’ve absolutely no doubt we can make it work. I think we’re going to have a very successful negotiation and it’s in the interests of both sides to have a win-win outcome."

It only needs it's going to be a bigly relationship, the best relationship in there to sound just like Trump and as delusional

May just said that the UK now needs its 'liberal democratic' values.

Ooohh, she's standing down then?

bold and ambitious again. Jeepers, now she is now telling the EU what it should stand up for. She mentions the UK, but only talks about building Britain up. Is NI not going to be built up?

RTB thanks for the buzzfeed link - it has genuinely made me snort with laughter when I ought to be sobbing.

Statement from Tusk/the European Council. Includes a link to the WM Government's A50 letter.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/03/29-euco-50-statement-uk-notification/

It seems as though triggering now is an act of face-saving. She said she'd do it by March so she had to. But actually no response will made by the EU for a month, partly due to Easter; and then negotiations won't start in earnest till the autumn, after the German elections.
It's an already tight timetable. Maybe they'll get a year between Aut 17 and Aut 18, after which apparently the treaty has to be ratified in time for the deadline in March 19.
If she'd waited till October to trigger, that'd have bought 6 extra months of talks.
We're going to walk away with no deal aren't we? I can't see how they can achieve anything comprehensive and meaningful in a year.

As far as I can tell, the only reasons to trigger now were (a) it would mean not having to have European Parliament elections in 2019 which would be a bit awkward if we were leaving and (b) to keep the fruitcakes quiet for a while. Everything else screamed for delay - I can't even be arsed to list the case for delaying - but, no, let's make this highly pressurised, delicate and terrifying process as kamikaze as we can.

Just caught Peston on ITV news talking about this:

If, however, we leave the European Union without an agreement the default position is that we would have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.

How nice. A week after the Westminster attacks and TM shows how much she thinks people and their lives are nothing more than bargaining chips.

I read the letter from TM to the EU.
Two things did strike me
1- is how much emphasis she put in the fact that the Uk is leaving the EU but still wants the eu to be strong, that there will be special relationships between the uk and the eu etc
2- the fact she was at pain to describe how the negociations should be done (I would be annoyed at the idea that someone had to tell me that it should be done in an orderly manner TBH!)

I've also noticed that she is not just triggering the Art50 but also states the Uk is leaving the European atomic Energy Community. Something that no one has ever mentioned (bar on these threads of course)....

RTB saw this article and thought of you.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-39406386

Now that A50 is triggered looking forward to some equally creative solutions to build the new UK EU relationship.

I am Scottish, British, European and Internationalist. The only people seeking to deprive me of any of my Nationality are the SNP.

uk.businessinsider.com/read-theresa-mays-brexit-article-50-letter-to-donald-tusk-in-full-2017-3

Letter in full.

Did everyone see Tusk's speech? Tearjerker alert at the end

A week after the Westminster attacks and TM shows how much she thinks people and their lives are nothing more than bargaining chips.

I've thought quite a bit about this. My feeling is that humans (all humans) tend to either have empathy for other humans, or they don't. There are not many shades of grey there.

TM has shown over many years that her views on representative democracy, human rights etc are, at best, highly questionable (legally, morally etc.). This is why her approach to treating EU citizens as bargaining chips does not surprise me, and like-wise why it's to be expected that she would be bargaining with the security of UK residents in a similar manner.

I think she struggles to relate to other humans as individuals worthy of respect. Or at all. She genuinely seems to have a chip missing i the emotional intelligence department.

Very true poundland.
Not sure why I'm surprised given her history.
I know a few other people genuinely devoid of the empathy chip too.

I agree Poundland. I wonder if it is the media influence in politics? I don't like David Cameron or Tony Blair but look at the unrelenting attacks both have had from the media for everything - personal, political; whether before or after they were in office etc.

You have to be very interested in power to the extent that you're willing to overlook that media influence, or have led a very dull life (!) so that there isn't even a tiny hint of a skeleton anywhere...This perhaps leads to a slightly unusual makeup of parliament.

Quite unicorns If not for the media Chuka would not I suspect be just in my inbox

The Buzzfeed link was great, all you can do is laugh in the face of yet another day of gross stupidity from those supposed to be governing the country.

Mother you miss my point. I currently have Scottish and British Nationality. If Scotland becomes Independent there is absolutely no guarantee that I would enjoy the same citizenship rights in rUK as I currently do or as RoI citizens have.

I have never had EU Nationality - that does not stop me being European. If the EU had granted this equally to all citizens of EU member countries rather than FoM then the rights of EU Nationals would not now be in doubt. If FoM had been laid out as a pathway to citizenship then similarly EU Nationals not residing in their country of citizenship would have always had far more clarity.

howabout, most of us are losing our EU citizenship though, which to me is far more important than being able to say I'm still European.

I also live in Scotland, and voted No in the last indyref. A lot of the arguments for staying within the UK are the same as the arguments for staying within the EU, and I find it really hard to understand those who don't see that.