The Brexit Arms A50 Celebration Thread

[BrexitArmsLandLady]

Welcome all - Leavers & Remainers
Article 50 being triggered next week, exciting times ahead.

Thanks to SurferJet for running the pub thus far! You're a diamond 💎 💎

Cheers 🍻
Brexit Ahoy! 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧

Oh goodness. Don't say we will find all those figures won't stack up. And the amazing trade deals don't happen

Never!

I believe Australia has said Brexit brings a great opportunity to increase trade with Ireland.

I believe Australia has said Brexit brings a great opportunity to increase trade with Ireland.

...to move Australian business investment currently located in the UK to Ireland (in addition to placing future investment there), in fact. Julie Bishop (Minister for Foreign Affairs) has been clear about this point both before and after the referendum.

But additionally, closer trade ties if immigration relaxed on the UK side. www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-says-australia-to-push-for-more-uk-visas-as-part-of-brexit-deal-20160909-grd9sk.html

There's also a video in that link which will give some cultural into the average Aussie's view on Brexit.

Its in our interests that the EU remains strong even when we are outside the EU, so I really hope we don't go down the road of petty sabotage if the talks turn acrimonious.
I am worried that Brexit has weakened the EU, but I hope it will recover.

A collapsing EU will never be something to celebrate, we will always be economically linked to our nearest neighbours and if they go down, they will take us (and our newly weakened economy) with them.

Likewise with security etc - cooperation benefits both sides.

But because of our close links with the USA our security services are superior so the loss would be greater to the EU. Our contribution to NATO and links there demonstrate a greater commitment to security than many EU countries, who contribute virtually nothing but rely on it. Not an EU institution I know but our links there contribute to our own security.

Actually I felt really sad yesterday to see the genuine upset of some Europeans and Tusk. Why couldn't they have foreseen something like this and been more accommodating when we asked for reasonable concessions instead of a complete dismissal?

Olympia, the loss may be greater to one side, but both sides will suffer. Threatening to end a mutually beneficial cooperation is unnecessarily antagonistic and counter productive. Threatening to use the safety of UK and EU citizens as bargaining chips is incredibly callous.

Divorce bill....meh. We are obliged to pay in probably til 2020, as that is when the current budget runs to. There are EU assets to which we are entitled when we leave, as we have contributed to them, so they will have to be offset against any liabilities we have. There appears to be nothing in the Treaties about this, according to some, so a moot point if it's enforceable.

Like Olympia I would argue that in terms of defence and security the UK is the big hitter within the EU. We are the only EU member state in the Five Eyes, and the EU is quite happy to shelter under our section of the nuclear umbrella. Defence in many of the EU member States is parlous, and they are reluctant to spend money by increasing their pitifully small defence budgets.

poorboy I am Scottish. All weather is calming. Might explain why I am quite happy with leaping into the unknown. Hanging out your washing is a giant roll of the dice every day here.

Olympia I agree with you about the mood from Tusk yesterday. I suspect even now many within the EU political establishment still think we are not really serious. Indeed they are already hinting about the revocability of A50. It still doesn't look like there is much prospect of reform from within either, given the insistence on a united front which in practice means everyone else being corralled into agreeing what Germany and France decide amongst themselves.

I find storms quite calming when I'm tucked up inside a cosy house. Less so if I just stropped out of the house in a huff.

Squishy The EU is posturing, and the PMs comments are just pointing out firmly, and in a way that cannot be misinterpreted, that two can play at that game. Remember, that Juncker said ' when it becomes serious, you have to lie'. That hardly engenders trust in the EU or its institutions or negotiating team does it?

As for callous, if the EU actually gave a damn, Schengen would have been suspended a long while ago. I drove from Brussels (two junctions before the airport exit) to Dunkirk on the day if the bombings last year, and at no point was there any security on the Ring or the E40, and nothing at the Belgian/French border either. It was the quickest I'd ever done that journey. It was much the same post Bataclan.

Howabout There will be some reform. I understand that Sweden and Denmark are refusing to up contributions to fill the gap left by Brexit, and in fact are demanding that the EU sets a more realistic budget with greater accountability and sticks to it. Stopping the Strasbourg shuttle would save an awful lot for example.

When negotiating, it is a bad idea to make any threats that you will never go through with. I really hope she is just posturing and has no intention of withdrawing from security agreements, because that would be fucking moronic. The idea that the EU would suffer more than us doesn't comfort me at all.
And if the EU "don't give a damn", then wtf is the point in making threats about it?

Scary it's the EU's job to get the best deal for the EU

It's our shambles of a governments job to get the best deal for us. No point in blaming the EU for protecting their own. Loads of reasons to point the finger at our government when they fail to come through with any of their promises

The EU didn't kick us out. We left

Squishy. And threatening us and our negotiating position on trade is right? So far the EU have been very aggressive in their stance towards us when it is in no ones interest to not seek to find a mutually agreeable arrangement. We accept we won't have it all and everyone will need to move their position, but it's a two way street, and some EU spokespeople don't seem to get that.

We wanted a pre A50 agreement on EU and UK citizens but Europe blocked it. We want tandem negotiations re the divorce proceedings go and trade. They blocked it. Germany in particular is playing hard ball. I just don't understand why?

There seems to be a split between spokespeople from the EU. Very conciliatory MEP this morning opposing a very hard line EU journalist, a very conciliatory French spokesperson with a very hardline (and angry) german ambassador on the radio. Confusing for everyone and in indicator of the difficulty of 27 disparate countries with different agendas. The german one being for ever closer union no matter what.

Yep, heard that nonsense about pulling out of the whole divorce and reconciling! It just won't happen but EU countries relying on this are doing the unicorn thing imo.

I am overall surprised by the strong emotions this split has caused. We all need to calm down and look at purely economic issues. Should have stayed the common market and not the European union. We want the market but not such a strong union.

Could have should have would have. Past. We are where we are. ODD that those who wanted to leave are the ones jumping up and down demanding that the EU gives us everything we want. Why should they? There was always a potential to screw us overy if nothing else as an example to ensure no one else is so stupid

"There seems to be a split between spokespeople from the EU.":
Yes, because the EU is not homogenous nor autocratic. That is why getting a good deal will be so complicated - because we need all 27 countries to agree to it, who all have their own (complicated, diverse) electorates to keep happy.

It is in some of the EU's interest to not go for the most economically optimum agreement - because Britain cannot be perceived as getting a better deal outside than in. Likewise with no discussions before A50 is triggered - they don't want to look like pushovers. That's not "punishment beatings", it's pragmatism.

EU spokespeople are no longer bound to represent my interests. May and her government is, so if I want to hold them to account for the way they conduct themselves I will.

And every time I hear Boris compare someone to a Nazi, or make some ill-informed coment about kebabs, or hear May threaten our safety I wince because they are speaking on behalf of me. On behalf of all of us, no matter which way we voted.

Squishy I think she would go through with her 'threats', and why not? You have to have worked out what your end point is, and when it is acceptable to walk away before you begin haggling.

Poorboy Don't blame the PM for protecting her own then! Many a reason to point the finger at the EU. Cameron warned them, they stuck their fingers in their ears and refused to listen. Hopefully the realisation that we are going to leave will puncture the Brussels bubble, and the Eurocrats will start to wake up to the need for reform.

Why not? Because I don't think it is acceptable to endanger your citizens for the sake of keeping the right wing fringes of your party happy.

newsthump.com/2017/03/30/nice-continent-you-have-there-shame-if-anything-were-to-happen-to-it-britain-tells-eu/

Seriously? We're supposed to all "get behind" this?

But scary she's not protecting her own. Which includes the 48%.She's protecting herself and the RW

Remember the union? I do. Is she attempting to protect that either?

Blind faith is not a healthy position to take. At this time May et al need to be challenged not cosseted.

It surprises me that they are being so antagonistic regarding trade deals when surely we buy far more from the EU that we export? It seems that everywhere I look there are German cars? We are a service based economy so won't these trade deals predominantly disadvantage the countries within the EU?

And it is not our job or sphere of influence to tell them to reform. All those arguements should stop as of yesterday

Not our circus no more. We have taken away our monkeys

I can't wait for all this to finally sink in. We have no power!

yy poor boy.
There is nothing wrong with challenging the leaders of your country in a democracy - especially during such an important time.
There's nothing wrong with holding your own leaders to a higher standard than those of other countries either.

I really think over the next week's and months it will slowly dawn that we are the very junior player in this negotiation

Like a farmer with tests

It's almost laughable that people are suprised and shows the level of arrogance and superiority in this country

SleepFreeZone: Services are heavily dependent on trade deals too!
A service based economy is particularly ill suited to WTO rules.
We may export more than we import, but the proportion of our total exports that go to Europe is much higher than the proportion of EU exports that go to the UK. It's down to the relative size of the UK and the EU.
Tarifs on imports would mean things are more expensive in the shops, and would mean that British manufacturers pay more for imported components, etc.