The Brexit Arms A50 Celebration Thread

[BrexitArmsLandLady]

Welcome all - Leavers & Remainers
Article 50 being triggered next week, exciting times ahead.

Thanks to SurferJet for running the pub thus far! You're a diamond 💎 💎

Cheers 🍻
Brexit Ahoy! 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧

Semi, if every country directly received more money than it put in, it would be a pyramid scheme!
I believed that we got back more than our contributions indirectly - through trade with the EU, and through being part of a stabilising force that agreed upon shared minimum standards.
Do those figures include our rebate?

for all my fellow leavers, today is a day to celebrate.

I don't post on here as I don't like the remoaners attacks but just had to send celebratory cake and wine today.

Yep Semi I think the UK's 50bn "exit fee" was drafted on the back of a fag packet on the basis of contributions from 23 June 2016 up to our exit (36bn), which we will of course pay plus some spurious assumptions that we would like to keep an ongoing share in our investment in the EU Parliament buildings etc.

Will be interesting to see how politicians on both sides of the channel finesse the numbers to make them a bit more palatable.

Well, if you sign up to a spending commitment while a member of a club, it can be argued that you do have a liability to fulfill that spending commitment, even if you decide you want out of the club.
I am hoping that the 40-60 billion Euro exit fee can be negotiated down, but to be honest it's pretty small change compared to the costs of serious damage to our economy, which is a very real risk (though I like to believe, not an inevitability) of Brexit.

Do those figures include our rebate?

No idea - it was just mentioned on Daily Politics.
Suspect it's a gross contribution figure.

We (net) contribute around £120 million per week iirc.

It's interesting when you also look at EU contributions as a percentage of GNI - in which case the Netherlands emerges as the biggest net contributor:

www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2016/50/netherlands-largest-net-contributor-eu-this-century

Interesting set of graphs CountMagnus.
And the figures used do exclude our rebate, so we were actually paying less than it would appear at first glance.

how We need rent for the use of our offices in the new vanity building, or we want our contribution back. We only have to contribute up to the end of the current spending round, which is 2020. We presumably get our share of the wine cellar, the properties bought for the EEAS missions (EU Embassies), etc. Someone on another forum seemed to think we were entitled to at least €38 billion at a rough estimate.

Congratulations everyone¬ A great day indeed. :)

Net contribution from UK of €10.9 billion from that link.

Quite a tidy sum to have.

@Surferjet
"Then piss off quite frankly"

you do realise that Irish nationalists in NI and Scottish nationalists would like to do exactly that. Only problem is they will be taking their bits of the UK with them so there won't be much of GB & NI left.
You are welcome to Brexit but I'd really appreciate if you and your fellow Brexiteers took 5mins away from your celebrations to realise what this means for NI and it's people. We're pretty good in NI at f**king things up by ourselves we don't need much outside help to slip back into a sectarian hate war.

Yes, it is a lot of money that the EU will no doubt miss greatly, I won't argue with you there Semi.
Its what I would call a lose-lose situation.

Drunkvet
Hopefully, there are enough people in NI who don't want a return to the Troubles to stop it happening?
I did hear that Sinn Fein were calling for a referendum, but I guess there's not much support for that?

squishy
I'm not sure re border poll. It would have to be voted for north and south of the border. What I am sure is that it takes very little to push NI into violence (google flag protests, yes seriously fire bombs because a flag didn't fly ALL the time)
The devolved gvmt in NI is currently collapsed. Lots of people think SF are angling for direct (London based) rule so that they can blaim any Brexit related fuckwittery on the British govmt. You have to understand that SF are aiming to be the largest political force in NI and ROI. It's really not as simple as saying enough people don't want violence. The majority of both communities in NI never supported violence at any time but it didn't stop it.
Not only will NI be negatively affected by having a land border with the EU post Brexit but where, oh where are the British govmt going to find the funds to replace all the 'peace money' we get sent?
Brexit will scupper my little country and any chance it had to mature socially and politically.

Yep Scary I have seen the figures going the other way but couldn't remember them offhand. Ellie on the Daily Politics did a piece on it a while back. As I say I assume all assets and liabilities will be settled fairly but there will be a lot of public squabbling over the politics of who is getting a better deal. The bottom line is that the UK will become a very much smaller net contributor going forward and we won't have to recycle our own money through the EU.

Thanks semi

time

What did i say

No dont tell me!!

The bottom line is that the UK will become a very much smaller net contributor going forward and we won't have to recycle our own money through the EU.

YY.
This is the biggest point re contributions.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-29/london-office-values-could-fall-by-a-third-morgan-stanley-says

Thanks for explaining Drunkvet.
I am in Scotland, and am quite uninformed about the details of politics in Northern Ireland (like a lot of people), but I do try to follow things. I know enough to know that I don't know very much, iyswim.
I hope that the government prioritises the stability of NI during the negotiations and fall out, and I really, really hope that things don't tip back over into violence there.

Drunken if Scotland becomes Independent do you think this will improve or worsen stability in N Ireland? Do you think a Federal solution, across the whole of the UK, could incorporate N Ireland or do you think there will always be pressure for a United Ireland?

Raising a glass for Claig. I miss you

How
I hope to see a UI in my life time so yes, appetite very much still there. Unionism no longer holds the majority of seats in our (now defunct) assembly
However, I would like the process to be peaceful and consensual not shoved through because of the Brexit bogeyman and clever political shenanigans by Sinn Fein. That way lies violence.

How
BTW I think a United Ireland much more likely than an Independent Scotland.

Lol lol lol Squish @ British govmt prioritising NI. If only you knew what an utter shit show the SoS James Brokenshire has just presided over. I think if ROI offered to take us (NI) on TM would wet herself in gratitude.
You think Scotland's got it bad? At least you have a functioning devolution and the London Parliament actively seek your opinion (even if they don't act on it)
NI is the smelly, sticky, dysfunctional child that no one wants to deal with.

Pretty much agree with you on all counts Drunken, which is why I think it is a bit of a stretch to blame the current instability on Brexit.