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The Brexit Arms A50 Celebration Thread

916 replies

BrexitArmsLandLady · 20/03/2017 22:38

Welcome all - Leavers & Remainers Wine
Article 50 being triggered next week, exciting times ahead.

Thanks to SurferJet for running the pub thus far! You're a diamond 💎 💎

Cheers 🍻
Brexit Ahoy! 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧

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Drunkvet · 29/03/2017 18:48

How
Where did I blame Brexit for the collapse of our assembly? Or for the current instability?
All my comments have been based on what Brexit may do in the future and how political parties in NI may use that. So future impact
I'm sorry for your misunderstanding in this matter, it wasn't my intention

Cailleach1 · 29/03/2017 19:38

It would be interesting to look into those Daily Politics figures.

inews.co.uk/explainers/charts/much-uk-pays-eu-much-get-back/

I can't seem to enlarge it, so you'll have to have good eyesight. The source is the European Commission.

If you look at payment per person the UK is the 8th net contributor. Only above Italy and Ireland as net contributors. The returns look interesting, too.

squishysquirmy · 29/03/2017 19:58

I don't think an independent Scotland is that unlikely now.
If there is another referendum (especially if it is an "unofficial" one), I think that there is a real risk of a Yes vote going through. I don't think its likely, but its not unlikely either. I would guess that the turnout may be lower, due to referendum fatigue, but that this would favour the Yes side.
Many No voters will have switched to Yes due to Brexit (and I think more will switch if the referendum is held after the negative effects of leaving the EU have started to be felt).
Many Yes voters will also have switched partly because of Brexit, and partly because of the low oil price.

Rationally, Scottish independence makes less sense now than it did in 2014. But emotionally, a lot of voters will feel betrayed by the rest of the UK, and that's what worries me: Emotions seem to trump economic arguments in referendums.

howabout · 29/03/2017 20:38

Sorry Drunken didn't mean to imply you did. However this is a Brexit thread and we were discussing NI in that context and others have done so.

Calleach I don't think per head figures are particularly relevant in the context of the overall dent in the EU budget the UK leaving will create. However generous a per head donation Luxembourg made to the UK budget it would not make a heap of difference per head in the UK.

squishysquirmy · 29/03/2017 20:57

"I don't think per head figures are particularly relevant in the context of the overall dent in the EU budget the UK leaving will create."

No, but it is relevant in assessing how much of a burden EU contributions really were on the UK, and its relevant when people suggest that the UK was being unfairly taken advantage of by the EU. It's completely fair that bigger economies, with bigger populations, should pay more of the cost. It also makes sense that the poorest countries should receive more funding.

Drunkvet · 29/03/2017 21:00

How
I'm fully aware that this is a Brexit thread. I was discussing the future implications of Brexit for NI. In the same manner you have been discussing the implications of Brexit on a Scottish Indy ref.
Have I missed something? Are you willfully misunderstanding me or telling me off or am I missing something in translation?
I'd genuinely like to know.

surferjet · 29/03/2017 21:49

Drunkvet

I'll be totally honest, I haven't got a clue how Brexit will effect N.I.
During the run up to the referendum here ( England ) you were hardly mentioned. I'm assuming it's going to be a bit awkward now what with borders & everything.
Wrt Scotland - they had their referendum only a few years ago & voted to remain part of the UK, therefore they have to suck up the UK's decision to leave the EU.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 29/03/2017 21:56

I'll be totally honest, I haven't got a clue how Brexit will effect N.I.

Which is odd given leavers are such patriots.

During the run up to the referendum here ( England ) you were hardly mentioned. I'm assuming it's going to be a bit awkward now what with borders & everything.

Yes it was all abit too detailed and complex for the leave campaign. There will be no hard border which kind of contradicts the leave assertion of controlling borders

Wrt Scotland - they had their referendum only a few years ago & voted to remain part of the UK, therefore they have to suck up the UK's decision to leave the EU.

Predict the UK will be broken up by 2030.

Imjustapoorboy · 29/03/2017 22:10

Ghost spot on

Englandcentric view of the world within the leaver campaign which thought the rest of the union was not important or would fall in line behind the leaders

PS add to the list the commonwealth

squishysquirmy · 29/03/2017 22:16

After the No vote last time round, the SNP said there would not be another Independence referendum unless there was a significant and material change in circumstances. The SNP 2016 manifesto stated that there would be a second indyref if the UK voted to leave EU when Scotland did not, and the SNP got the largest share of the vote.
I am a No voter, and I really don't want to go through a second indyref but even I can see that Sturgeon does have grounds for requesting one.
Her and May are both playing a very dangerous game.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 29/03/2017 22:18

Yep, without Brexit SNP would have no mandate. The delicious irony of this clusterfuck is that Brexit will lead to the break up of the UK.

squishysquirmy · 29/03/2017 22:18

Oh and you're not alone, surfer.
David Davies doesn't have a clue how Brexit will affect N.I. either.

Deadsouls · 29/03/2017 22:18

Is it true that the UK will have to pay an exit 'fee' to the EU upon its departure two years from now?

squishysquirmy · 29/03/2017 22:19

Ghost: And it's been caused by the hard right Tory fringes. Who are exactly the sort to bang on about "Broken Britain".
Well, it wasn't broken before.....

GhostofFrankGrimes · 29/03/2017 22:19

yes there will be a fee to pay, shame it wasn't put on the side of a big red bus really.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 29/03/2017 22:22

The UK will be asset stripped now. That includes the NHS. Great news for the Tory millionaires. Take back control.

Deadsouls · 29/03/2017 22:29

Why was it not stated at the time that there would be a substantial 'divorce' fee to pay? As in, the U.K. may have to pay £x amount (approx) upon leaving the EU. Or was the assumption that there would be no financial dispensation?

GhostofFrankGrimes · 29/03/2017 22:31

You'd have to ask the leave campaigns men and women of integrity.

SemiPermanent · 29/03/2017 22:40

.

The Brexit Arms A50 Celebration Thread
howabout · 29/03/2017 23:01

Drunken I was agreeing with you. Shock As you were.

That is a very calming goodnight picture Semi Smile

Imjustapoorboy · 29/03/2017 23:28

Storm clouds are calming? Or storm clouds are coming?

Cailleach1 · 29/03/2017 23:36

howabout "Calleach I don't think per head figures are particularly relevant in the context of the overall dent in the EU budget the UK leaving will create"

Hmm. I don't think it is a simple matter of the pay in either. The overall EU budget is large. I presume you can spread it out among the remaining countries when you also take into account the dividend.

The 2 EU agencies in London will relocate and bring that cash back into the EU. Buildings, wages, hospitality for thousands of people involved in meetings of committees and groups. HQ's and offices etc., maybe research budgets and their personnel.

The financial sector may be bringer of big bucks with all it is comprised of. It will interesting to see how that goes.

The UK won't be a gateway to the EU anymore for international organisations. Relocation could bring a lot back in. We don't know what will happen to manufacturing in the UK.

That is just at a glance. It will be interesting how it develops. The EU said it is committed to protecting the interests of its citizens. Economic as well. That is looking at it from the EU prospective.

Of course, the UK will be looking to develop it's economy outside the EU. But the EU will have 400million people in their market and anything the UK has to offer will not be as a gateway to that market like now.

Of course the EU will have to reorganise, but I imagine they are will over the stages of grief by now and there may be some returned benefits back into the EU27 to soften the blow.

CardinalSin · 29/03/2017 23:37

"Why was it not stated at the time that there would be a substantial 'divorce' fee to pay?"

It would have been dismissed as "Project Fear" if it had been. Just like everything else that is now happening...

Cailleach1 · 29/03/2017 23:55

That is not to say the UK won't be a big loss in other ways. In terms of expertise, I believe the UK makes a very valuable contribution in the calibre and quality of it experts.

LondonMum8 · 30/03/2017 07:22

The reason why this whole Global Britain is not going to work is that British economy is predominantly services-based and Europe is the natural market for that. We can sign a free trade deal with say Australia (Bojo keeps talking about that), and what will happen is that they will export beef to us, no problem there, but we will have much harder time convincing clients in Canberra they need to have some services done in London. Project Reality begins.