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Brexit

Westministenders: Its time to fire the starting gun. At our own heads.

985 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/03/2017 12:03

Its time for the suicide. The note will say simply, "The EU made us do it".

David Davies, says that despite May’s assertion that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK, that actually we don’t know this as he hasn’t got round to quantifying the impact of no deal.

He still has no answers for anything apart from “I dunno” and “I’ll do it later”. I can’t wait for when the dog ate my homework excuse.

After 9 months. That’s how far we’ve got. Brexit negotiation skills will have 18 months (not 2 years as it’ll need to be ratified). We are still hiring people for the Brexit department. What about all these EU agencies that the UK will have to replicate and hire and train up in 2 years time?

I’m still waiting for Davies to tell me what all these potential benefits he keeps going on about are too. Benefits for who exactly? Ah yes we know the answer to this one too, even if its not being said. Its political elites and elites with lots of money who can consolidate power and enslave the population through debt and desperation. Goodie. Just what I’ve always wanted. As long as I can wave my Union Jack. Oh. Shit. Bugger.

Nicola Sturgeon, has been doing a good job of showing Brexiteers exactly what they look like to Remainers by holding up the mirror of irony to the Vampires of the 19th Century State. The sight of them tripping over themselves saying its irrational to hold a ‘blind vote’ and that the economic argument is flawed is hilarious. If you are not British.

Hammond has been forced to u-turn on NIC budget announcement as it was not in the spirit of the manifesto. What happened to the manifesto pledge to the protect interests in the Single Market. Lets be honest, the New Tory Manifesto read simply: “We’ll wing it and see what we can get away with”. I wonder how many people would vote for that.

Its Brexit at all costs. No matter what. We must keep the foreigners out. Even though Davis hasn’t done an assessment on the financial impact of migration. Just think about that for a second. Actually don’t because you might actually want to shoot yourself in the head.

At best the government are still relying on Game Theory as a basis for their negotiations and the EU are already going, “Er we don’t think so”.

Perhaps this is the intention of May’s tour to build consensus. She’s handing out guns and bullets to anyone who displays rational thought, to blow their own brains out.

May’s weakness is her manner and her chip on her shoulder for the law. Her own party are not immune to it. She seems to think trade deals are not done based on goodwill. May’s weakness is Britain’s folly.

Pass the blindfolds round, and get on your knees and await our own execution by our own hands.

Bang.

RIP The United Kingdom and Northern Ireland. I will remember you with nostalgic fondness but equally with bitterness and shame. Our finest hours are long since passed (and were tainted with the excesses of exploitation anyway) and we must accept this as part of the process of ‘accepting Brexit’.

Now its time for the empty hand to start being shown and the blame game to begin in earnest. The politics of hate have only just begun and the divorce has not started yet. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are the kids we might not get custody of.

We’ll be blacking up again, running around groping women like Benny Hill and pushing people back into the closet as we hit the off switch before you know it. As well as having nice shiny new ID cards we’ll have to pay for the privilege of owning and carrying at all times, to prove we aren’t nasty illegal immigrants or those equally nasty legal ones clogging up our NHS (by working for it).

Don’t worry though. Uncle Donny will save us. If he doesn’t die suddenly after eating a bowl of Russia soup or have a fatal heart attack after accidentally falling out of a tenth story window.

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HashiAsLarry · 17/03/2017 23:24

In all honesty I don't understand Gibraltar and won't even attempt to beyond that apparently they've expressed an interest in staying within the UK previously and TM's government won't have bothered looking into it wrt to the,

BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 23:24

Very interesting that Ian Paisley Jnr & Gerry Adams accompanied Enda Kenny on his St Patrick's Day trip to the US.
Dunno what's come over the Paisley family

HashiAsLarry · 17/03/2017 23:24

*them

Peregrina · 17/03/2017 23:25

Nor does she include the citizens of Gibraltar in her 65 million being behind Brexit, because however hard you spin it, a 96% vote to Remain has to be overwhelming support in anyone's book. Unless it's a State like N Korea where 96% would vote for Kim Wrong Un or whoever.... which I don't think Gibraltar is.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 23:25

May governs only for the Home Counties
Everywhere else is just the Colonies

HashiAsLarry · 17/03/2017 23:27

May governs only for the Home Counties
Everywhere else is just the Colonies

Ah, when do we negotiate out free trade deal with the home counties Wink

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2017 23:38

I don't think you can take the 2015 results as being typical for the LibDems, being punished for tuition fees and going into coalition.

Hence why looking at the 2010 figure is relevant as its a high watermark

Tatton is more home counties than the home counties. We know what's happening there. Personally, knowing the area fairly well, I'd still say that the Lib Dems would have their work cut out, even with a rush of new members.

They have to get a swing of 16% from the 2010 figures. (Assume that Kippers voted Tory in 2010 anyway, as they didn't stand a candidate).
In 2015 the Tories plus UKIP comes in at a whooping 69.4% of the vote in Tatton. The Lib Dems had 8.5%.

The figures suggest that LDs went Blue and Cons went purple rather than LDs going Red and Labour going purple because the Conservatives increased their vote share. There has to be a lot of yellow tories but not more than there are bluekippers and therein lies the problem. You are only going to get big swings to the LDs in areas where the 2010 LD minus 2015 Kippers equation is heavily in favour of the LDs. This is why there was such a swing in Richmond as there was very little kipper support there.

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HashiAsLarry · 17/03/2017 23:43

Given the surge in popularity in 2010 then the blame of 2015, I'm not sure either is telling on LD alone sadly.

But what is telling is how they're comparing to where others are losing votes.

I am of course teaching granny to suck eggs.

SwedishEdith · 17/03/2017 23:54

I don't see Tatton going LD but I was checking it out earlier today. It's a big constituency as includes lots of rural Cheshire but some of the bigger very affluent towns. Undoubtedly Tory but lots and lots of small businesses, educated professionals (and footballers and Corrie stars). There will be a lot of people starting to have 2nd thoughts about Brexit if they voted Leave 1st time.

PlectrumElectrum · 18/03/2017 02:02

Don't know if this has already been posted but it sounds plausible & a good compromise for the reluctant indyref2 voters.

Can Gordon do another Gordon for indyref2?

Sky news link

lalalonglegs · 18/03/2017 05:33

Wasn't Scotland promised vast new powers to remain the first time round? Did they every get them?

TheElementsSong · 18/03/2017 07:00

woman

As does their failure to celebrate. You must have noticed that instead, of rejoicing that they have at last found their heart’s desire, Brexiteers harangue the rest of us with angry diatribes against our refusal to share their faith. They are the spit of true believers who cannot accept that heretics refuse to see the way and the truth and the life.

Haven't many of us on these threads been saying this since last June? Sad

RhuBarbarella · 18/03/2017 07:49

I think TM back pedalled on 'the Vow', because she thought the Scottish government should deal with local stuff and let WM take care of the grown up matters. Brexit was not going to lead to further devolved powers to Scotland and she seemed to be pulling it back to London. I think GBs plan can only work if there is access to the SM, and FoM. In my eyes, it would make more sense under independence, a blog on this point: eulawanalysis.blogspot.nl/2017/03/scotland-eu-and-indyref2-legal-issues.html?m=1 . I think the Lab plan is to avoid just that.

Mistigri · 18/03/2017 07:59

Ugh,, sorry for stupid long link (it's a Twitter redirect)

Mistigri · 18/03/2017 08:05

Ireland have said they will veto any Brexit deal that involves a border with the north.

Has to qualify as "dumb statement of the week" no? Deal vetoed = no deal = hard border by default.

But I think we should interpret this to mean that if the UK negotiators want some sort of soft brexit deal (with some small sweeteners to quiet the Tory press), they will have a strong ally across the Irish Sea.

Motheroffourdragons · 18/03/2017 08:12

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Motheroffourdragons · 18/03/2017 08:17

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Peregrina · 18/03/2017 08:33

Maybe now peoples' holidays are in jeopardy there will be a change of heart.

Yes, it's relatively trivial, but that's the sort of thing that people can relate to, and it might just bring it home to them that this was what they voted for.

It's much easier to note what is going wrong than what is going right, which was one of the problems of the Remain camp. If we got £350 million a week for the NHS, it would take a considerable time before people realised that the money was being spent - that the queues were shorter, there were more staff, and better facilities. Or standing in a long queue at an airport is easier to react to than a big sign which says the EU contributed to this, that or the other worthy project.Think of how the cost of marmite going up affected people, when half of us don't like the stuff anyway!

Motheroffourdragons · 18/03/2017 08:35

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GreenPeppers · 18/03/2017 08:49

unicorn going back a bit but that article about facts was fascinating.
Thanks for sharing that one!!

RedToothBrush · 18/03/2017 08:59

Given the surge in popularity in 2010 then the blame of 2015, I'm not sure either is telling on LD alone sadly.
It gives you an idea of how many voters are definitely not particularly loyal and would potentially consider voting for another party rather than who is LD. The LDs are picking up votes through being seen as only credible alternative rather than because people actively support them.

Undoubtedly Tory but lots and lots of small businesses, educated professionals (and footballers and Corrie stars). There will be a lot of people starting to have 2nd thoughts about Brexit if they voted Leave 1st time.

Tatton is pretty close to my old neck of the woods and I've close friends there. It was firmly remain to begin with which reduces it's capacity for Bregret. There are plenty of plenty rich enough to make a killing from Brexit (or simply not be affected) so support it.

It's south Manchester commuter belt so workers are mobile and will travel further afield. I know people who live there but work in the Liverpool area. It has some of the biggest daily commutes in the NW. Saying it's rural misses this aspect of life. It's less of that 'backward' mindset than you think. It's more out and out selfish for want of a better way and more sensitive way to describe it.

Yes, in recent years it's changed a fair big with a lot of people from the South East moving in and taking all the northern jobs as house prices are (sometimes only mildly it has to be said) cheaper than SE, making quality of life is better and commute potentially shorter than they had there. It means the area is perhaps beginning to 'hipsterfy'. (hipsters tend to live more towards the city as they either can't afford to live further out or want to be closer to the night life there.)

The population older than national average and has a certain entitlement to keeping 'the riff raff out'. By and large it's people who can afford the cost of Brexit and generally will find work even in a downturn. There is not much socialism about and sympathy for people on benefits somewhat limited. Many people just will go their whole lives not understanding what poverty is. They think they are not posh yet go skiing and have an au pair. (Genuine example I've come across). Unless it affects the number of holidays they can have, i doubt there will be much more swing than in the past.

Building a council estate or shared ownership properties is more liable to bring out pitchforks. Or a lack of a school place at the top local school, preventing kids from going to one of the out of area grammars or bussing in free school dinner kids. It's all about education and housing. Oh and a low tax rate. Keep that sweet and the Tories still win. I'd go as far as to say the NHS is a lesser point for once as so many will have some sort of private health insurance through work, so its already part of life. Paying extra for private education is far less accepted - tuition for 11 plus excepted. The expectation is for outstanding state schools. Brexit is way down the list of anger inducing subjects when push comes to shove.

That said its definitely voted more Tory than it perhaps should be but I'd still say that 50% Tory would be a fair assessment, without another Hamilton/Bell situation or Brexit going REALLY badly. And for Tatton to be affected to that degree, I'd say you'd already be in riot territory elsewhere first. Every where else will be crumbling before Brexmegendon hits Tatton. It's one of the last places I'd expect Bregret for this reason.

flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2017/03/17/special-report-bongobongoland/
Time for a special report from Bongo bongo land.

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RedToothBrush · 18/03/2017 09:05

Agree loss of access to 'openskies' and thus cheap flight tickets is more of a big deal to some than the loss of the car industry. David Davies has admitted that we are likely to lose that this week. I think that deal is one to really watch. The likes of Ryanair and Easyjet are pretty vocal and are media savvy. Much lobbying to come from that direction.

It'll be interesting to see where British Airways come out on that. Reduced competition from the budgets might help them but i don't see how they could compete with KLM/Air France or Lufthansa nor beyond that the likes of Emirates.

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Peregrina · 18/03/2017 09:10

Aren't British Airways and Iberia joined into one company? How will that work?

Peregrina · 18/03/2017 09:22

I loved the special report from Bongobongoland.

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