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Brexit

Westministenders: Its time to fire the starting gun. At our own heads.

985 replies

RedToothBrush · 15/03/2017 12:03

Its time for the suicide. The note will say simply, "The EU made us do it".

David Davies, says that despite May’s assertion that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK, that actually we don’t know this as he hasn’t got round to quantifying the impact of no deal.

He still has no answers for anything apart from “I dunno” and “I’ll do it later”. I can’t wait for when the dog ate my homework excuse.

After 9 months. That’s how far we’ve got. Brexit negotiation skills will have 18 months (not 2 years as it’ll need to be ratified). We are still hiring people for the Brexit department. What about all these EU agencies that the UK will have to replicate and hire and train up in 2 years time?

I’m still waiting for Davies to tell me what all these potential benefits he keeps going on about are too. Benefits for who exactly? Ah yes we know the answer to this one too, even if its not being said. Its political elites and elites with lots of money who can consolidate power and enslave the population through debt and desperation. Goodie. Just what I’ve always wanted. As long as I can wave my Union Jack. Oh. Shit. Bugger.

Nicola Sturgeon, has been doing a good job of showing Brexiteers exactly what they look like to Remainers by holding up the mirror of irony to the Vampires of the 19th Century State. The sight of them tripping over themselves saying its irrational to hold a ‘blind vote’ and that the economic argument is flawed is hilarious. If you are not British.

Hammond has been forced to u-turn on NIC budget announcement as it was not in the spirit of the manifesto. What happened to the manifesto pledge to the protect interests in the Single Market. Lets be honest, the New Tory Manifesto read simply: “We’ll wing it and see what we can get away with”. I wonder how many people would vote for that.

Its Brexit at all costs. No matter what. We must keep the foreigners out. Even though Davis hasn’t done an assessment on the financial impact of migration. Just think about that for a second. Actually don’t because you might actually want to shoot yourself in the head.

At best the government are still relying on Game Theory as a basis for their negotiations and the EU are already going, “Er we don’t think so”.

Perhaps this is the intention of May’s tour to build consensus. She’s handing out guns and bullets to anyone who displays rational thought, to blow their own brains out.

May’s weakness is her manner and her chip on her shoulder for the law. Her own party are not immune to it. She seems to think trade deals are not done based on goodwill. May’s weakness is Britain’s folly.

Pass the blindfolds round, and get on your knees and await our own execution by our own hands.

Bang.

RIP The United Kingdom and Northern Ireland. I will remember you with nostalgic fondness but equally with bitterness and shame. Our finest hours are long since passed (and were tainted with the excesses of exploitation anyway) and we must accept this as part of the process of ‘accepting Brexit’.

Now its time for the empty hand to start being shown and the blame game to begin in earnest. The politics of hate have only just begun and the divorce has not started yet. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are the kids we might not get custody of.

We’ll be blacking up again, running around groping women like Benny Hill and pushing people back into the closet as we hit the off switch before you know it. As well as having nice shiny new ID cards we’ll have to pay for the privilege of owning and carrying at all times, to prove we aren’t nasty illegal immigrants or those equally nasty legal ones clogging up our NHS (by working for it).

Don’t worry though. Uncle Donny will save us. If he doesn’t die suddenly after eating a bowl of Russia soup or have a fatal heart attack after accidentally falling out of a tenth story window.

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RedToothBrush · 17/03/2017 22:24

The Lib Dems have very little on the ground support in the constituency apparently. They would need a local candidate to win there rather than have someone parachute in I suspect given it will be such a hard seat to crack. Whether they have someone who fits the bill, I'd question. Possible but more unlikely than likely. They have grass roots support in the surrounding areas but not so much actually in Tatton itself.

Ultimately though I don't see Osborne being forced out unless he really wants to go. Remaining an MP he is more useful to May and that would be the rational course of action for her to take. She can use him to her advance. Forcing him out creates another big enemy - who has an outlet for it. Dacre and Murdoch I'm sure won't be too chuffed, but again, they will still want to keep May safe rather than expose her as that is also in the best interests of their newspapers.

Mind you, 'rational course of action' and 'Theresa May' don't seem to fit in the same sentence at the moment.

Its interesting that Clegg was seen talking to Osborne as he regularly writes for the Evening Standard. It will be interesting to see if that continues or whether he is given the boot. Osborne himself has the Lib Dem Press Office blocked on twitter, so it doesn't look terribly good for them in that respect. Clegg might want to be careful about how close he is seen to be Osborne now too. It could work to the Lib Dems advantage in some areas but it could really work against it too.

Of course there is also the possibility that Osborne has gone full on rogue undercover Yellow Tory, but I do think that highly unlikely.

It will be interesting to see in which direction the Standard's editorial line goes and how the rest of the press reacts.

Its not doing a lot for this idea that the country is democratic and not run by elites is it?

I will take up offers of cakes should events really end up going in that direction...

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woman12345 · 17/03/2017 22:33

Thanks. red. May's irrationality is definitely a plus from this side of the quiche hat. And Lib Dems have had odd wins lately.

ElenaGreco123 · 17/03/2017 22:33

Osborne reconciled even with Mandelson during the referendum campaign, so I doubt it would be a problem for him to work with Farron or Clegg.

Merkel showed how uncomfortable a lot of us feel nowadays.

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2017 22:33

^^ Which will have the effect of depressing the vote of people on the left of the political spectrum...

The Last Leg are currently talking about running former 90s stars in elections under 'The 90s Party'. I'm not sure how serious they actually are. (Surely that could be a problem for C4 impartiality?!)

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 22:36

To cheer us up - UKIP do seem to be dying off:

The 15 March YouGov/ Times poll had them down to 9%,
which is the lowest that YouGov have scored them in quite a few years.

In local byelections, their vote is well done, recently plummetted from 19% to 5.6% in Blackpool and from 31.6% to 11.5% in Breckland.

Bad news is:
UKIP have become irrelevant because May's govt carries out hard right policies that Blue Kippers love.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 17/03/2017 22:40

I looked back a couple of pages but couldn't see this mentioned; Ireland have said they will veto any Brexit deal that involves a border with the north...

Peregrina · 17/03/2017 22:41

Bad news is:
UKIP have become irrelevant because May's govt carries out hard right policies that Blue Kippers love.

Yes, that's true, and I keep hoping for moderate Tories to jump ship, but it doesn't seem to be happening yet. But, the Press went on and on and on about how Labour was vulnerable to UKIP and it hasn't been so far. So it's about time now that the BBC stopped giving Farage and Co so much publicity. And about time that Labour sorted out its leadership, but it can retain its policies.

woman12345 · 17/03/2017 22:41

Merkel showed how uncomfortable a lot of us feel nowadays
I'm afraid I can't say anything legal about Trump now. But I admire the grace of Merkel, Hilary Clinton and Michelle Obama in such close quarters.

Peregrina · 17/03/2017 22:43

Ireland have said they will veto any Brexit deal that involves a border with the north...

I think I saw that on a facebook page. If so, what happens then? The UK crashes out with no deal, which implies a hard border anyway? The obvious compromise would be an EEA/EFTA agreement, but they require Freedom of Movement and May has set her face against this.

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2017 22:47

The Lib Dem odd wins were off the back of a) low turn outs b) very heavy lib dem local campaigning c) scandals locally d) the Lib Dems somehow being framed as credible alternatives by accident e) Labour being utterly shit.

Tatton in 2010 looked like this:
CON - 24,687 (54.6%)
LD - 10,200 (22.6%)
LAB - 7,803 (17.3%)
IND - 2,243 (4.9%)

In 2015 it looked like this:
CON - 26,552 (58.6%)
LAB - 8,311 (18.3%)
UKIP - 4,871 (10.8%)
LD - 3,850 (8.5%)
GREEN - 1,714 (3.8%)

We know that Tatton Conservatives don't tolerate a scandal from Neil Hamilton, but only with the right alternative candidate. Osborne has not hit corruption / scandal levels (at least yet) and the LDs couldn't stand on an anti-corruption ticket anyway. Beyond that its difficult to see how they could get past that level of Tory vote - especially if Kippers go back to Tories. Getting back to 2010 vote share would be a challenge in its own right. Even if Labour didn't stand, it would be hard to get close to the Tories.

May doing a U-turn and deciding not to trigger a50 is more likely, if you ask me.

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RedToothBrush · 17/03/2017 22:51

Marina Hyde‏*@MarinaHyde*
I hope George's Osborne's Standard will run articles which take as long to legal as my article about George Osborne editing the Standard is

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Peregrina · 17/03/2017 22:52

I don't think you can take the 2015 results as being typical for the LibDems, being punished for tuition fees and going into coalition.Since then there has been a significant influx of new members into the party, although whether this is proportionate in the Tatton constituency, I wouldn't know.

If Osborne were to stand down, it would depend very much who the Tories selected to stand. A Brexiter would not go down well.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 22:54

From bored's link to the Telegraph ORB poll:
Even though voters oppose by 59 to 41% Scotland becoming independent
They thought 60 to 27% that Brexit was more important than the UK breaking up Shock
So, many (predominantly English) voters want to dump anyone who disagrees with Brexit and / or Tories

However, I can't find out if the poll was just of Torygrah readers /Leavers, or sampled to represent th voting population.

HashiAsLarry · 17/03/2017 22:54

Ireland have said they will veto any Brexit deal that involves a border with the north...
This strikes me as the opposite of Spain. This is more on the EU to work with UK to stop hard borders. Either that or its for the bragging rights of 'well we bloody tried, look at those bastards over -> way'

BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 22:56

The Uk is quite likely to break up if so many (English) voters aren't bothered by it happening

HashiAsLarry · 17/03/2017 22:56

They thought 60 to 27% that Brexit was more important than the UK breaking up shock
No need for shock I think now. This is a religion. A new dangerous religion but one nonetheless.

woman12345 · 17/03/2017 22:57

ItsAllGoingToBeFine NI can veto it? Would O'Neill and Foster have to agree to veto it together?
Coming out of EU is certainly breach of GFA, and peregrina you were saying it's an international agreement?
www.ft.com/content/56f62810-8afd-11e6-8cb7-e7ada1d123b1
Found an old blog on how NI and Scotland could stay in EU.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/exit-plan-scotland-northern-ireland/
On May's form with Sturgeon, and her desperate need for DUP, looks like she'll play this one charmlessly too. Hope not.

woman12345 · 17/03/2017 23:04

On DT poll, ask daft questions, get daft answers.
If 51.9% don't listen to 48%, there's now way 55m will care about 5m. Especially with the level of racism going on now, including towards Scots.

Is a daftocracy a 'thing'?

BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 23:06

Thread Exclusive: the inside story of Merkel's meeting withTrump !

Westministenders: Its time to fire the starting gun. At our own heads.
Westministenders: Its time to fire the starting gun. At our own heads.
woman12345 · 17/03/2017 23:09

Grin BCF
Brexit as a cult:
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/beware-cult-brexit/

RedToothBrush · 17/03/2017 23:09

Election Data‏*@election*_data

I think @InstituteGC would benefit from an understanding of what open/closed personality types mean and how they interact with behaviour 1/2
2/2 Which would then enable @InstituteGC to better tailor what it intends to do (start with Remainers and draw in Leavers). Without it.....

Who are the @InstituteGC???

Here's their twitter description from their profile:
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change is a not-for-profit organisation dedicated to making globalisation work for the many, not the few.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/17/tony-blair-launches-pushback-against-frightening-populism?CMP=twt_gu
Tony Blair launches pushback against 'frightening populism'

He might have tried to have picked a twitter description that doesn't like it was ripped directly off Theresa May.

The Independent is carrying a story about how Labour is being urged to split into English and Scottish Labour to save the union.... So that's two splits in Labour now forming.

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ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 17/03/2017 23:15

NI can veto it? Would O'Neill and Foster have to agree to veto it together?

Not NI, Ireland.

Its one more thing for May to worry about if nothing else. Reunification might be a solution?

Theres not going to be much "U" K left after all of this.

And why does no-one ever talk about the poor sods in Gibraltar?

BigChocFrenzy · 17/03/2017 23:19

Well, Gib would have to put up with joint UK-Spanish sovereignty if that was the only thing blocking May's special deal.
However, there will be umpteen other issues preventing even the sniff of a deal.

So, Gib will just suffer a hit to their economy hit, like the Uk will.
The reward for loyalty

woman12345 · 17/03/2017 23:21

Thanks ItsAllGoingToBeFine, it's all utter madness. What do you think is likely to happen with Gibralter?
Grin that Scottish labour is having to ask dotty uncle JC not to visit and scare the voters.

Peregrina · 17/03/2017 23:22

And why does no-one ever talk about the poor sods in Gibraltar?

I was just thinking along those lines myself. Sturgeon clearly thought that May would invoke Art50 on Tuesday, despite vehement subsequent denials from No 10 that it was always going to be the end of March. If May was really concerned about Scotland, Wales, N Ireland and Gibraltar would she not have told the leaders of each one before hand? Common courtesy would decree this? She's talking about a stately progress around the UK - I haven't heard of any mention of going to Gibraltar.