Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

The amount Thatcher has been invoked recently, especially by stooge 1 Johnson, I find it hard to think anything other than they think they can bluff and threaten to storm out and the EU will come running.

But what they've failed to realise is there's a big difference between threatening to quit the EU to get concessions and threatening to walk away when you've already left. Its not going to work.

I meant to say also that even for an EEA transition we'd need infrastructure upgrades - that's not apparently happening either.

By the current logistics in progress, it looks as if we're Remaining.

Sure, but then a government intent on staying would have taken the middle road politically and have spun an EEA/EFTA deal incl CU to the country. They wouldn't have declared before the world that we're off.

I don't think May was ever fully signed up to hard brexit, but she has had to play that role to keep her loony wing in check. She has done it clumsily but wholeheartedly.

Davis and Fox (and possibly BoJo) probably thought that a hard brexit was possible; Davis at least now realises that it's more complicated than he thought.

By the time reality had had a chance to impinge on government brexit fantasies (notably via the mechanism of select committee enquiries), the press and the lunatic wing had already been given free rein. Hard to rein them back in quickly, May now has to let them run with it. They will tire themselves out eventually.

I don't think this government is especially competent; indeed bits of it are either totally insane or completely unsuited to any serious government role (Fox, Johnson, Liz Truss). But May for all her many faults is not a fool, and everything I have read and heard about Hammond suggests that he is an intelligent, pragmatic man (the NIC hike is actually rather good evidence of this - bad for his political career, but sensible from the economic POV and a good time to introduce unpalatable measures given the lack of opposition).

Competent, sensible people don't drive economies over cliff edges on purpose, they would at minimum be doing some serious mitigation exercises. But they're not, because they have no intention of driving over the cliff edge.

That doesn't mean it can't happen - there's at least a substantial risk that May has miscalculated - but I don't that the cliff edge is where she intends to go (though she certainly intends to make the British press and hence the electorate think its where she's headed).

There's also one heck of an assumption in thinking that we could join EFTA as a fall back position.

Who says they'd want us?

I might actually go and put a bet on us opting for EFTA with an EEA transition (that will last for a minimum of the decade that it will take to build the customs infrastructure for a Swiss-type relationship with the EU).

I would....

(....And then full Brexit ahead from there, obvs!)

I think Verhofstadt is saying we can't have EFTA/EEA.

If you read what he says, he's saying we can't have them on our terms. I expect there will be some superficial concessions made available to cushion the climb down.

He's playing the political theatre game too (he knows we're not getting our own trade deals).

And then full Brexit ahead from there, obvs!

My bet would be more like switzerland, given time.

On Scottish independence, which is looking increasingly likely, my prediction is that the main change will be moving from being ruled by a Tory government we didn't elect to a Tory government we did elect.

Signing in (as I don't normally manage to get up-to-date with these threads), and thanking all those who keep them going...

"did not feel equipped with the necessary knowledge and expertise to make such an important decision"

The thing is, there were people who were equipped with the necessary knowledge and expertise to make such an important decision - those pesky experts!

On Scottish independence, which is looking increasingly likely,

I'm curious as to what the English Breiteers view is on Scottish independence ?

It would be deliciously ironic if it's actually pro independence, or ambivalent, as opposed to Camerons "purring" antipathy.

Yet another non-linear choice ... Brexit and Scottish independence, or Remain and Scottish union.

I think Scotland is certainly justified in revisiting the independence question since the fundamental nature of the union has changed.

Once again, Camerons legacy ....

Thing is, if the UK comes on stronger with the hubris/arrogance and overplays the 'I'm not going to pay a single penny on any obligation, because I'm worth it', it won't do much for it's reputation or the trust in future trade relationships.

Some things will be up for horse trading. However, some will be clear cut obligations.

I hope that 'robustness' doesn't turn into ugly. Looking at the Con. party now, a scorched earth instinct may be more likely than goodwill.

The Gov't say they are going to be like a 3rd country. Out of everything to do with the EU. Not a penny for any membership or access. Then say that it is the EU punishing them if they don't get special favours, gratis, and in fact do look upon the UK as a 3rd country.

Think Scotland would be fairly ripe for some kind of watermelon party PrettyBirdLady- green on the outside, red on the instead. Tied up in a bow of social/European liberalism, so one ribbon Jock Tamson and the other Auld Alliance.

Thing is, if the UK comes on stronger with the hubris/arrogance and overplays the 'I'm not going to pay a single penny on any obligation, because I'm worth it', it won't do much for it's reputation or the trust in future trade relationships

It's a measure of how thick some Brexiteers are, that they can't see that the rest of the world would love to have the UK in a position of abject weakness. After all, it's a de facto walkover in "negotiations".

UK: "We'd love to do business with you."
Bongo-bongo Land: "Well, given that you have reneged on all your international agreements previously, we'll have to factor a risk factor into our tariffs. Say 1000% ?"
(a few months, while the UK rinses and repeats with all other 146 countries in the world)
UK: "Bargain !"

And now a threat to our chocolate

Chocolate prices could rise if the UK does not secure a trade deal post-Brexit, according to Mars' top boss.

Fiona Dawson, global president for Mars, said the absence of a deal with EU member states would see tariffs of up to 30% for the industry.

(contd)

And so it begins. People who were ambivalent about industry price hikes and tariffs might suddenly wake up, if their chocolate is threatened. Although if you're after something brown and sticky, UKIP have plenty.

How long, and in what form will the slapdown to Mars for "Talking down the UK" take ????

I notice they say "Brexit", not "trade agreement with Europe" ...

And now a threat to our chocolate

Right, they've gone too far this time. I'd ask bigchoc to ready the troops but she'll be ok in Germany .

They can take my land
They can take my freedom

But they will NEVER take my chocolate!!!
😡😡😡😡😡😢

Thought this was interesting...

www.indy100.com/article/richard-dawkins-brexit-referendum-vote-david-cameron-ukip-7623061

And it appears that "Economists for Brexit" has felt the need to rename themselves "Economists for Free Trade"!

This is interesting - undoubtedly May has access to the same info...

Your link isn't working, Annie, and I'm intrigued to know what the info is!

Reposting Annie's link (I think there was a full stop at the end that made it give an error):

britainthinks.com/pdfs/BritainThinks_Brexit-Diaries-Breakfast-Briefing_FINAL.pdf

Thank you My brain! and apologies for dodgy link (it's been a long day...)

Thank you for posting it - it made very interesting (and depressing) reading.