Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

Thank you both. It was certainly illustrative and it is interesting that trade and the economy seem to be so low on the die-hard Brexit agenda. I think that this may tie into the much-publicised and discussed demographics. Once again, I feel queasy about Theresa May's approval ratings .

Looks like the "devastated pessimists" are out on a limb on almost every topic. Even the "accepting pragmatists" don't like open borders but do want control.

Every time I see 'winning on sovereignty' my eyes roll out of my head.

This is very interesting annie
And yes i agree it explains a lot of why TM is handling things the way she is.
It seems A lot of us are pessimist Remainers here!!

It also points out to the fact that actually a big part of the population won't mind budget restrictions etc,.. if it's under the name of Brexit.
And that, what we call a soft Brexit will not be a possible outcome anyway. From that, I can't see why or how TM could go towards the EEA agreement as it so tied in with the FOM for example. And you need to pay.
It also explains why she is so keen to get agreement on a sector by sector basis. This would be an agreement for one sector only and would be unlikely to have anything to do with FOM.

It also points out to the fact that people just won't care about Brits abroad as such. Or about eu citizens here. They should have got their citizenship in the first place...

In a very moment, i feel like Britain is actually showing their true colour there (see the comments about DT too)

Winning on sovereignty is basically the end of 20 years telling British people that it's the EU fault (or the ECHR, ECJ etc...) that is stopping the uk form doing what it wants.
There is a feel that the Uk can't take its own decisions ever. A FEELING?

Boosting a FEELING won't be hard TBH. A bit of propaganda will do the trick.

This seems to get very little publicity on Budget day....

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bereavement-benefit-cut-cruel-unnecessary-frank-field-theresa-may-philip-hammond-a7622191.html

Blessed are those who mourn?

Yeah but red they'd also have to find an appropriate new scapegoat and that may take time.

Annie's link is interesting ... mainly because it shows that Britain doesn't think very much at all.

I'm not an especially pessimistic remainer, in the sense that I do think that a political solution is possible ... I just don't think anyone is going to like it very much.

I suppose it's a "fair" outcome of a vote that split the population roughly down the middle if both sides end up hating the result equally .

I don't think there will be. I think he is saying because we won't accept FOM, we want to make our own trade deals, etc that's it

Well yes that is what he is saying .. IF we won't accept it, THEN.

At some point, assuming that Britain doesn't really want to turn Kent into a lorry park, a political solution will have to be found. The UK doesn't have many cards, but the one it does have is the fact that it's a sizeable market that the EU would like to continue to trade with (on acceptable terms of course).

The EU isn't going to roll over on FOM, and there isn't much scope for negotiation on trade - you're in the CU, or you're out - both the EU and the UK have to comply with international law on this, it's not simply a matter of negotiation between the two parties. But once the UK has accepted that it has a simple choice between compromise and chaos, then a deal can be done (and I think that deal will most likely look like a Swiss style EFTA with a long EEA transition).

Switzerland would ultimately be sell-able as the end-point of Brexit, I think, from a political point of view - they are seen as independent, they have a form of direct democracy, they are quite racist and they like guns (will appeal to the Trump fans).

It also explains why she is so keen to get agreement on a sector by sector basis

But she knows this is impossible - under GATT a qualifying trade deal has to cover a substantial part of both parties' trade. She could cut a favourable deal on cars, for eg, but under MFN rules both parties would then have to apply the same favourable rules to all WTO members. Not happening. And it doesn't solve the NTB issues anyway.

I think you have more faith in May than me on this point.

Not really. I still think that a chaotic brexit is a strong possibility. But it's not what May is aiming for, because no government wants chaos with no contingency plan a year before a general election. And there is no contingency plan.

I just lurk on these threads mostly, but as I live in Folkestone I just wanted to point out we already have a massive lorry park being built, that didn't go through the usual planning process, in Stanford just outside Folkestone. It was put through because of Operation stack - it'll do bugger all to help with it, because it will take hours to become operational, and by that time the M20 will be a car park anyway, but the precedent is there.

Also, as I'm sure you're all aware, not all Kent residents voted for Brexit, a lot of us are terribly worried.

I don't think the term 'devastated pessimists' is accurate.

I would call it 'horrified realists'. (Many of whom are 'pragmatic' all the same.)

You could describe Friedrich Reck-Malleczewen, author of 'Diary of a Man in Despair' (secret diary describing the mass-psychosis that engulfed Nazi Germany from 1936 on) as the epitome of a 'devastated pessimist' - yet he wasn't seeing the worst, simply the real.

And how much blacker his reality was than ours, whose, by comparison, is just a little grey. Remainers are those who observe from the clouds that it's about to rain.

Annie's link is interesting ... mainly because it shows that Britain doesn't think very much at all.

That. 100%.

And on why people don't put much sway on economic arguments (yet WWIII almost breaks out on shock of Marmite & PG Tips prices?), well I'd put that down to the vast majority of voters having an extremely limited understanding of international trade, tariffs, forex etc at top-line or wallet-level...It's astonishing to me that people are pissed off about self-employed NICs yet relaxed about what's in the process of happening to their annual food bill.

Almost everyone I know is a devastated pessimist. Or a "shrugs shoulders, yes we're fucked but there's sod all we can do about it"-ist like my husband.

I know, I live in a bubble

I know the odd accepting pragmatist but they don't tend to be very politically interested overall.

badders I think that bereavement benefit cut was announced before the budget?

Ah Call so we have another one of those 'let's put things in place wo saying a word' re issues with transit.

Interesting....

I've been wondering if nyone have actually thought about using the very underused capacities we have 'up north'.
I'm thinking ports and airports that are there but desperately underused because they aren't in the south of England.
Maybe a little bit of hope for the NE to see some development there??

Also, as I'm sure you're all aware, not all Kent residents voted for Brexit, a lot of us are terribly worried.

I don't blame you. A minor go-slow at passport control or a channel storm costs you millions in lost economic activity due to traffic chaos, not to mention the environmental and quality of life impacts. Brexit is a whole new ball-game.

I do think there is a mix of having no knowledge or understanding of the principles that rule the economy and the attitude described by summer 'we can't do anything about it anyway'

All that is also the reason why I don't think Brexit as such will see TM fall. Shenis riding the wave of the 'will of the people' and is doing so very well.
She will fall for some other reason. The NHS, marmite or any other secondary thing that people will not be ready to accept.

On the subject of psychosis - I think that is where we currently are.

The delusional ideology that has this country in thrall is a little like a political religion - without the coherence.

It makes no sense for the Tories to whip up the country telling them they're getting a hard Brexit & the end of FOM, then by cunning sleight of hand produce a soft Brexit spun as hard.

It won't wash. The hard right Tories will cry foul, the country will cry betrayal, and hard Brexit is now bigger than May - if she doesn't deliver she will simply be replaced.

I think the truth is the government actually believes the delusions its peddling.

RedAndYellow - here's a link to the local activism if you're interested. soskent.org.uk/

Competent, sensible people don't drive economies over cliff edges on purpose, they would at minimum be doing some serious mitigation exercises. But they're not, because they have no intention of driving over the cliff edge

No, but they do do it by mistake or rather by false beliefs/ideology. If the government were in any way intending a soft Brexit - they would precisely be doing 'mitigation exercises' for that. Preparing the country for a compromise. Laying the foundation for a middle way. Communicating the impossiblity of hard Brexit.They're not - because they have no intention of a soft Brexit (other than as a transition).

The Tories may assume they can blame any economic fallout on EU "punishment beatings" and the UK public will just accept it bravely for years, no surrender to the wicked huns and their Brexit Blitz

They may assume correctly that at least the 38% of voters they need can be bamboozled like that

LH You thought the hard Brexiters would never "let us" have an Associate EU citizenship....

Um, how can they stop it, if the EU genuinely requires nothing in return from the Uk ?
Those of us already resident in the E27 could just apply and anyone else could leave the UK when they wish and apply.

Or do you envisage the Uk becoming like the former USSR:
banning "useful" professionals & their families from leaving the country and removing the citizenship in absentia for those who have already fled ?