Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

I hope the sheer stupidity of the referendum does act as a sobering example, ron, but continually going back to it doesn't really help with the current mess - the people who should care, don't. In the words of the exasperated having to pick up the pieces the world over, "We are where we are". In the UK's case, it will take a miracle to reverse this fuck up so we've got to think up ways of lessening its impact. Nothing would please me more, for instance, than the Electoral Commission declaring a dozen Tory seats unsafe because of the way the campaign was funded and for those seats to go to the LibDems and, on the strength of this, Labour remembering its Remain message, rediscovering its backbone and A50 being reversed (assuming it is invoked in the next couple of weeks) but, you know, I think it's unlikely. I think we have to concentrate on staying in the single market or, at the very least, protecting the customs union.

Truly, I do find it very difficult to accept that I am now hoping for something less than an absolute disaster rather than a full reversal but... we are where we are.

There's no point trying to stay in the single market - bar a humiliating U-turn by the government and the country accepting the continuance of FOM - it's gone.

The only other way would be a transitional EEA deal that becomes permanent either because our economy is tanking or because the Tories are ousted or both.

As I observed yesterday there's far more outcry about NI for self-employed than May's announcement of quitting the SM and asking for a cake and eat it deal on the CU.

did not feel equipped with the necessary knowledge and expertise to make such an important decision

Quite - a friend said exactly that before the Referendum and added that this is why we have MPs to do the job for us.

We could have Referenda on issues which would be cut and dried e.g. should we have a new National anthem? I think New Zealand did something the same with their flag. I think they decided to stick with the old one in the end, which I thought was a pity, because there were some good designs for a new one.

An interesting article (and videos) from a Norwegian documentary maker who set out to interview some internet haters. here

I don't know if this is a trend generally but the two most racist/xenophobic interviewees are both married to foreigners. As is the case with Banks and Farage... there does seem to be a disconnect there.

I look forward to our referendum on the new Disunion Jack.

We'll be down to a George Cross + a dragon.

I agree Ninon that the despair over the U-turn on the Conservative party's manifesto pledge not to raise taxes has been out of all proportion to the rather more damaging breaking of their pledge to stay in the single market. FoM is obviously a red line for a lot of people, I'm not convinced it's a red line for the government who, for the past few months, have been floating the idea that immigration levels aren't really going to change, we're still going to need immigrants in this sector and that... This is, of course, at odds with the threatening letters coming from the Home Office. Everything's all over the place really, isn't it?

Don't think this has been posted yet

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-s-brexit-walkout-threat-leaves-eu-unmoved-1489007915

Article in the Wall Street Journal about how TM's bravado will not have the desired effect of the EU saying "Ok then - you can have your cake and eat it"

Surprising that!

I think it's slowly dawning that the current UK government have no intention of allowing anything which means FOM is assured or assumed. It really is that simple.

In the light of that, well intentioned though Guy Verhofstadt may be, there is no way rEU will allow UK citizens FOM in return. It would be politically untenable. It's a genuine mirror situation. UK:No EU FOM vs. EU:No UK FOM.

I think part of TMs "reasoning" may be the assumption (and it may be true ?) that fewer people will lose out by losing FOM than will be cheered by knowing that it's being axed. It'll only be when the horror stories of underinsured holidaymakers start to trickle back that it will start to dawn. And by then she would be "Lady May" ...

Thought you lot would appreciate this

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/indyref2-set-for-after-may-has-ballsed-everything-up-but-before-shes-kicked-out-20170309123778

Says a lot about our current fuckedupness that satire is indistinguishable from real life!

Read this earlier

Depressingly accurate imo

"framing poverty as an active decision is fairly typical of the right on both sides of the Atlantic"

Love it pretty but now I know Corbyn is making the jam I realise he does have a plan to save us

Whilst TMs blustering goes down well with the brexit cheer brigade, it doesn't really impress anyone else. I like Guy Verhofstadt's approach, its a mellow she has her lines, we have ours but we are willing to negotiate - i.e. if she walks its of her own accord.

I enjoyed that, pretty. Funny how the fiction is not stranger than possible eventuality.

In Germany, the proposal to allow UK citizens FOM has been discussed as a standalone, not requiring anything from the UK in return.
That may be due to Germany's serious demograohics problem - I don't know what politicians are saying in other EU countries.

I've also heard the proposal that a UK citizen could pay an annual fee, €200, for an associate EU citizenship

There's no point trying to stay in the single market - bar a humiliating U-turn by the government and the country accepting the continuance of FOM - it's gone.

Well ... except that a government which was genuinely intent on leaving the SM and the CU could realistically be expected to be starting to put the necessary infrastructure in place.

It's not. No plans, no budget, no political will for this (if they can't build another runway at Heathrow, good luck with paving big chunks of Kent to supply lorry parking and warehousing).

I don't think France will come out if the eu. This a lever wet dream, not the reality.
Fwiw Macron is ahead is very very pro Europe...
As all the others bar LePen. And evenshe has issue with the Euro, not the eu.

I might actually go and put a bet on us opting for EFTA with an EEA transition (that will last for a minimum of the decade that it will take to build the customs infrastructure for a Swiss-type relationship with the EU).

Tbh I really hope the uk is ping to find a solutions to Brexit. But from the other side, I do think that the uk ducking things up will be a big reminder if all the advantages the EU gives aand will make a lot if people think.

The EU needs a reform though. Which it is starting to look at ATM anyway.

Mainland Europe are far more attached to the EU than the UK

I know farage would LOVE to think that his actions led to the collapse the EU

Ain't gonna happen

They have seen what's happened here and in the US

They aren't idiots

I've also heard the proposal that a UK citizen could pay an annual fee, €200, for an associate EU citizenship

I can't see that being welcomed by the hard Brexit lobby. Their entire pack of lies reasoning being there is no benefit to the UK from the EU whatsoever. I would expect them to continue with their SOP of shutting down debate from anyone that runs counter to that narrative.

If they're happy to call appeal court judges "enemies of the people" they will have no problem in demonising people who might dare to put their money where their mouth is and willing give the EU 200Eur.

Well ... except that a government which was genuinely intent on leaving the SM and the CU could realistically be expected to be starting to put the necessary infrastructure in place.

Sure, but then a government intent on staying would have taken the middle road politically and have spun an EEA/EFTA deal incl CU to the country. They wouldn't have declared before the world that we're off.