A few comments from the JackofKent blog linked upthread:
Nick Tolhurst says:
14th March 2017 at 11:16
There’s an interesting connection between devolution politics & EU deal making. The-winner-takes-all Westminster system is mostly unused to multi-lateral processes which explains both its disdain for EU as well as its blindness to the Scottish/NI risk. In EU power is multifaceted & depends on facilitating “your favored plausible option” via “consensus building” rather than simply amassing power & grandstanding. May’s inability to recognize, prepare & neutralize the obvious Scottish “independence gambit” does not augur well for UK Government’s ability to facilitate a deal which is both favorable to UK and, more crucially, obtains enough support from different power centers to be successfully passed.
In other words May looks like she is playing a “Westminster strategy” that simply doesn’t apply to negotiations with both devolved nations and the EU – if she continues, UK is likely to come out worse with respect to both.
Antony Carter says:
14th March 2017 at 11:16
Sinn Féin have ever played the long game. The ‘retirement’ of Martin McGuinness due to ill health was, I suspect, delayed to maximise its influence on NI politics. The refusal by Sinn Féin to appoint a successor to the post of Deputy First Minister thus triggering the elections, is an object lesson in timing in politics as born out by the results. The move, when it comes will be timed to cause maximum devastation to Westminster’s plans.
Noemi Fabry says:
14th March 2017 at 11:53
Anyone who has exchanged more than a sentence with people living in Scotland and Northern Ireland could see this coming. Given Ms May’s diplomatic skills combined with her unique superiority complex, I must admit that I am increasingly looking forward to seeing her having to face the reality of European politics.
She and her rogue public school bullies on the Tory right wing have most likely achieved something few thought remotely possible: the political unification of Europe.
Europeans are really fed up with this British side show and Sturgeon and Adams have decided to side with the stronger partners in this battle.
John Forbes says:
14th March 2017 at 12:52
And it seems the Welsh, despite the majority supporting Brexit, are also queuing up and looking at their options if a hard Brexit seems inevitable. The unravelling of the United Kingdom is at hand as a result of a paltry majority achieved by downright lies and obfuscation. And the best May can say to Sturgeon is don’t play games with politics! The irony is profound.
The real games have not yet even begun to be played. At the best, the end of the beginning is at hand with the final wilting of the British Parliament to May’s cabal while yearning after a long past imperial dream.
Steve Jones says:
14th March 2017 at 14:58
I suspect the common reaction in England and Wales to the reunification of Ireland is that it can’t happen fast enough. It would be a significant saving to the Treasury, remove a security headache and somebody else will have to deal with the intransigent, divisive politics and religious bigotry. Of course, the Ulster Unionists will be livid and not doubt bang their drums and parade, but they don’t really have many friends in England and Wales save a few traditionalists in the Conservative and Unionist party. There are some commentators in the Republican of Ireland who are somewhat less keen as, whatever the romantic and nationalistic elements, they realise they will be inheriting a province with a long history of trouble and, perhaps more important, a financial liability.
GDP per capita in the Republic of Ireland is $61.3k and that of Northern Ireland is $23.7k on a PPP basis (the UK as a whole is about $38.9k). The NI economy is also disproportionately public sector at over 30% compared with less than 20% in the UK as a whole.
I suppose, put another way, the Republic of Ireland is more able to afford Northern Ireland albeit that the former is very much a low taxation, low state spend economy so it might be a tricky merger.
.....
My own comment:
The major plus for Ireland and NI in the event of reunification would be the rationalisation of EU regional funding, especially for the (former) border region which is a poor, rural one, and the increased possibility for all-island economic and infrastructure planning. And who knows, perhaps a Scottish/Irish regional development fund?