Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

I don't know that it matters if its credible or not. The prospect of another legal challenge alone - even if it looked likely to loose, further down the line would not be something the government would like to see. Can you imagine trying to conduct a negotiation with the EU, whilst at the same time there is a legal challenge going on because of the wording of your bill, and this being in the elephant in the room?

What challenge was Gina Miller proposing next anyway? She has made the threat that she would go back to court.

As I said last night the legal flood gates would now open. I seem to remember David Allen Green saying many, many months ago, that Brexit was a legal mine field which would result in many, many cases along the way - especially if crucial details were somehow overlooked because of the sheer scale of the task at hand.

Brexit was always a lawyers goldmine.

Do not also forget May's decision to not have someone with a legal background in her Brexit Cabinet (along with not having representation from NI, Scot and Wales as part of every meeting - and being by invitation only). Again this was something that Green made a point of saying was a HUGGGGGEEE error due to the nature of Brexit and a glaring mistake by May which would come back to haunt her at some point.

I don't think NS was being Machiavellian - nor the SNP MPs (nor the other MPs who voted against it).

It's not their job to ensure correct wording and anyway all their amendments got voted down

It's those that claim to support Brexit/the Government/the "will of the people" who should have been ensuring that the bill was watertight.

unless they didn't want it to be

This from five months ago:
inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/scotland-snubbed-theresa-mays-brexit-cabinet-committee/
Scotland snubbed from Theresa May’s Brexit cabinet committee

The Scotland Snub and No Lawyers.
As I say, the lack of lawyers was pointed out at the time - though not in this particular article.

RTB - Gina Miller is threatening legal action if there is no meaningful vote at the end of the negotiations. She contends that the SC ruled that Brexit should be a parliamentary process and parliament should not be tied by a Hobson's choice of rubbish deal or jumping off a cliff.

I'm amazed there hasn't been a class action on behalf of EU citizens so far.

May to send Article 50 letter strapped to a bulldog in a Spitfire

The Brexit Arms' vision of Brexit

It's not a class action lala, but Jolyon Maugham is on the case, and this petition too:

Jo Maugham QC‏Verified account @JolyonMaugham 12h12 hours ago
No better backer for our petition for EU Citizenship rights than their promoter, @GuyVerhofstadt! Sign up here

goodlawproject.org/petition/eu-citizenship-petition/ …

Hang on. So not only are remainers at fault for not having a plan, they're now at fault for not ensuring the brexit bill was watertight. What else are they responsible for because it would be handy to know?

Exactly Hashi. And its not May's fault for not having someone with legal experience in her Brexit Cabinet...

The buck stops with May.

Especially since May should know from experience what her real weakness in politics has been.

That chip on her shoulder about Human Rights Lawyers is sure hard to miss.

She's had 8 months to try to build consensus.

One photo opp on the steps of Bute House (not sure what if anything she has done in NI and Wales) does not consensus make

Talking at people does not consensus make. especially when you exhibit intellectual dissonance, telling them that what they want, which is independence and sovereignty from a larger body is wrong, but it's right for her

Tautology does not consensus make.

.....but there again, if you believe in the Empire 2.0 everlasting cake, unicorns and fair dust and a world map coloured pink then maybe she does believe that that's all that's required for consensus.

and innovative teas and jam

Especially since May should know from experience what her real weakness in politics has been
But others knew it better?

That letter does seem somewhat vexatious to me, but here's what I don't understand. Following the referendum, the gov could easily have put a Bill to parliament to formally accept the referendum result and obtain the authority to make the A50 notification. They could also just have easily secured the rights of EU citizens, as it only takes about eight seconds to work out exactly how much additional strength to your negotiating position not doing so gives you. And we could be well into the negotiations by now with no threat of further legal action down the line... but instead they chose not to do that. Sometimes intransigence makes you look strong; but often it makes you look idiotic.

woman - if the EU wants to offer British citizens some sort of associate EU membership, then that is unbelievably generous of them (and at least gives me comfort that not everyone outside the UK thinks we are behind Theresa May in the march to the abyss). But I'm surprised that some lawyers aren't getting together a case for the EU residents here that have been royally shat upon over the past few months. I don't know how people who arrived here legally can have those rights retrospectively removed which is what May implies every time she says that they are bargaining chips and therefore might be sent home.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/theresa-may-brexit-talks-prime-minister-diplomacy-eu
May’s diplomatic blunders will cost Britain dear in Brexit talks
The prime minister has alienated all who counsel moderation while indulging her party’s Europhobes

This article in spades.

I love this paragraph:
There aren’t many rules to drug dealing, but one of them is not to get high on your own supply. The product is for punters, and getting wasted is bad for business. The equivalent rule in politics is not to be taken in by your own spin. Prime ministers employ people to push positive stories about them on Westminster street corners. But they shouldn’t consume that line themselves.

Yes, I had a snigger at that line. John Crace's parliamentary sketch is also worth a glance:

Theresa yawned and only perked up when the SNP’s Angus Robertson stood up to speak. Here was her chance to show off her world-famous diplomacy. To sweet-talk the whiny Scots in the same way as she was planning to charm the Frogs and the Krauts into doing whatever she wanted. To prove to the country she was the woman to get the best deal for Britain.

“I do wish you would just stop moaning about a second independence referendum,” she said, rolling her eyes. The Jocks had had their chance and blown it. Now they just had to suck it up until she was ready to give them one. Or not. She hadn’t decided yet. Either way, Scotland was coming out of the EU. End of. What it had to accept was that it was better off being part of a union. Even if the United Kingdom was better off out of one. Logic has never been the prime minister’s strongest suit.

Hang on. So not only are remainers at fault for not having a plan, they're now at fault for not ensuring the brexit bill was watertight. What else are they responsible for because it would be handy to know?

It might be a shorter to list what we're not to blame for .

Even the increase in racist attacks (where not outright denied as made up) were because Remainers made the racists do it, it's the EU that is to blame for not securing the rights of bargaining chips migrants in the UK, and other countries are big meanies if they haven't immediately changed their laws (in response to our Brexit vote) to allow dual citizenship.

La la, I agree. The Equalities Act and ECHR seem to have been broken right the way through the referendum campaign and with the awful treatment of EU citizens, since. Racism, human rights and sexism don't seem to be legally actionable anymore. I don't know why the Terrorism Act wasn't invoked over Cox's murder.

May's given succour too to Farage now posing openly with Le Pen, and he's said he'd stand again for seat in question over the expenses enquiry.

Scottish tories going into overdrive against new referendum, pesky celts. Did you see the laughter at her from the SNP in HOC today?

There was an absolute piece of work on the You and Yours Brexit phone in this morning. He had voted Leave but was disappointed that the subsequent fall in sterling had affected his business (which imports most of its goods) - he blamed it on the Remainers. Another caller said that the uncertainty around the position of EU citizens had made him and his wife (a Spanish NHS worker who had been in the UK for many years) decide to move to Spain in the next few months. The first caller chipped in that this was Remainers' fault for "stirring things up" and making EU citizens feel insecure . Radio 4 obviously couldn't believe their luck that they'd found such a thoroughbred moron true believer.

The trouble is that there were probably a whole posse of the kind of people who frequent the Brexit Arms cheering him on and shouting "that's right, you tell 'em!"...

Listening to May going on about Qatar and the 5 billion trade, it struck me that the British arms trade was probably an area that will grow on Brexit. No human rights regulations to be dealt with or other European countries breathing down your neck. A lot of dosh to be made arming all those wealthy despotic countries. Queenie and her brood are forever being sent out to those middle eastern places to oil the cylinder so to speak. They get darn good jewels out of it as pressies, as well.

I do actually think the arms trade will be expanded after brexit.

"Assuming the planned March for Europe on 25 March is pretty big, that timing could be explosive" I don\ know why but I am pessimist about that march I don't think it's going to draw a large enough crowd to really send a message.

Lalelou, it depends what happens in the next two weeks.

A big election scandal would stir things up.

Though I fear there may be a sacrificial lamb laid at the Brexit altar yet, with Farage being gifted a seat in parliament as a consequence. Not sure whether that leaves UKIP 2.0 though. Though Farage might also leave UKIP and that would make a good platform for the launch of UKIP 2.0.

If the Scots can change their mind on their independence referendum, why can't we?

www.independent.co.uk/voices/snp-scottish-independence-referendum-indyref2-brexit-leave-vote-brexit-a7628941.html

Well, quite?

Trump's accusation that Obama wiretapped him illegally (which is actually technically an impeachable offence in its own right). Could get a little awkward according to Fox News.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/did-obama-wiretap-donald-trump_uk_58c82794e4b015d064bf86a5?
Did Barack Obama Wiretap Donald Trump? According To Fox News, GCHQ Did It For Him

About that trade deal and state visit planned for June... er sorry, its October now isn't it...

Teresa (sic) still gonna be your best bud?

Hmmm.... it seems there was another important vote in the House of Lords on Monday that has been missed.

It has to go back to the HoC, but it could mean that immigration figures drop massively.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lords-tories-international-students-immigration-figures_uk_58c7b094e4b081a56def02a9?
Lords Serve Tories Crushing Blow By Voting To Remove International Students From Immigration Figures

This was originally another of May's personal points and she intervened when it was previously suggested this was done. So another defeat for her personally with the House of Lords. Another one, that she will have to be difficult about to win in the HoC.