Westministers: The Lords Strike Back

[RedToothBrush]

This needs no fanfare or lengthy post. Just this:

The Lords are demanding amendments unilateral protection for EU citizens.

Labour was split 358 for an amendment to 256 against.

This is after Amber Rudd had tried to reassure the Lords by writing a letter assuring peers that EU citizens would be treated with the utmost respect.

Utmost respect = an amendment to guarantee unilateral support.

Today is a good day. It should have been done in the first place.

hope so!

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4280950/Downing-Street-deeply-worried-police-probe.html
Downing Street is 'deeply worried' about police probe into election expenses that could threaten Theresa May's Commons majority

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/election-fraud-inquiry-rocks-no-10-w8r5cdmn2?CMP=Sprkr--Editorial--thetimes--News--Imageandlink--Statement--Unspecified-_-TWITTER&linkId=35114977
Election fraud inquiry rocks No10

There were 29 seats originally implicated. They were mainly marginal.

The Mirror/C4 new list was:

1. Wells - James Heappey, 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 7,585 votes.
2. Northampton North 2nd: Labour by 3245 votes.
3. North Cornwall - Scott Mann 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 6,621 votes
4. Weaver Vale - Graham Evans 2nd: Labour by 806 votes.
5. Sherwood - Mark Spencer 2nd: Labour by 4647 votes
6. Thornbury and Yate - Luke Hall 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 1495 votes.
7. Kingston - James Berry 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 2834 votes
8. Broxtowe - Anna Soubry 2nd: Labour by 4287 votes
9. Amber valley - Nigel Mills 2nd: Labour by 4205 votes
10. Morecambe and Lunesdale - David Morris 2nd: Labour by 4,590 votes.
11. Yeovil - Marcus Fysh - 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 5313 votes.
12. Pudsey - Stuart Andrew 2nd: Labour by 4,501 votes.
13. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Oliver Colvile 2nd: Labour by 523 votes.
14. Erewash - Maggie Throup 2nd: Labour by 3584 votes.
15. Lincoln - Karl McCartney 2nd: Labour's by 1,443 votes.
16. Torbay - Kevin Foster 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 3,286 votes
17. South Thanet - Craig Mackinlay 2nd: UKIP by 2,812 votes
18. Nuneaton - Marcus Jones 2nd: Labour by 4,882 votes
19. Cannock Chase - Amanda Milling 2nd: Labour by 4,923 votes
20. Cheltenham - Alex Chalk 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 6,516 votes
21. Dudley South - Mike Wood 2nd: Labour by 4,270 votes.
22. Sutton and Cheam - Paul Scully 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 3,921 votes
23. Bury North - David Nuttall 2nd: Labour by 378 votes
24. Stroud - Neil Carmichael
25. Camborne & Redruth - George Eustice
26. Rossendale and Darwen - Jake Berry
27. Hazel Grove - William Wragg
28. Carlisle - John Stevenson
29. Mary Robinson - Cheadle

Its said that the case will go to the CPS in the next two weeks.

From the Time Article:

^Ministers, aides and Tory MPS have all told the Times that the issue is high on the agenda inside No10 and at Conservative HQ. "The problem for No 10 is that they do not know where it will end and they do not know who is leaking against them" a Tory source said "They are deeply worried about this".

and
"One source close to No 10 said the subject was "occupying as much as 20 per cent of non government head space".

It now thought to be less than a dozen cases under investigation, and up to six could be forced to go to by-elections.

Look at the list above. Anyone what to guess why No 10 'head space' is very worried. Its a hit list of LD targets... Good one. Ones what go on my list for the next election. A by-election would work better for the LDs too.

Anyone in any doubt about why May gets on with Donald Trump should reflect on how its her top advisor slap bang in the middle of this, and how she seems to have a real problem with the media and the courts in general. I bet the pair of them get on like a total house on fire bitching about how they hate liberals.

Threatening jail for whistleblowers? They couldn't be aimed at anyone leaking anything to do with this investigation now could it?

[Hmm]

As for the US, Louise Mensch was reporting several months ago that the request for a warrant for the FISA to tap phones in October. Trump has gone mental today after finding out he was tapped. This had to go through the courts and the judge involved would want good reason to grant the request for a presidential candidate...

Trump delayed his trip to the UK from June to October a couple of weeks ago. Apparently over concerns over the reception he would get. I sense there could be more to that too rather than just his poor ego.

Also:

John Schindler‏*@20committee*
Remember when I told you to get worried if the Trump WH starts talking about the "deep state" enemy? They are.
observer.com/2017/02/donald-trump-administration-cia-deep-state/
Rebellion Brews in Washington—But American ‘Deep State’ Is Only a Myth

What does this mean?
Well, it means all kinds of bad things. Mainly for Trump at this stage, but he looks like he could be prepared to push things to the edge of civil war if this type of thing carries on in this direction.

The Spectator Index‏*@spectatorindex*
BREAKING: Intel official says Trump's phone could only be tapped if judge had cause to think Trump had committed crime or was foreign agent

NO SHIT.

Back in Gorton:
Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
LDs choose local councillor with PhD in Nuclear physics, @jackiepearcey, to be candidate in Manchester Gorton

Just think about that alternate reality....

Tory Election Scandal set to possibly break in the next two weeks. May's deadline for triggering a50 in the next two weeks.

If you were a cynic....

why May gets on with Donald Trump should reflect on how its her top advisor slap bang in the middle of this, and how she seems to have a real problem with the media and the courts in general.

Yep.

Nick Timothy?

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michael-crick-theresa-may-nick-timothy-south-thanet-expenses_uk_58b5c392e4b0a8a9b786a0de

Michael Crick has been working like a Mensch on these.

Louise Mensch was on the money about a lot of the Russian stuff, and Trump is screaming diversions at Obama today, although it's normal practice for government agencies, not POTUS to tap potential presidents.

Oo, some of those seats look interesting and were not predicted to go blue - even factoring in expected losses for the Lib Dems.

Channel 4 link to the long running investigations into this:
www.electionexpenses.co.uk

"they do not know who is leaking against them"

I'm being thick, but leaking what exactly - do they mean leaking about the police investiagtion, or leaking information TO the police, about what the party got up to ?

Hmmmm
Interesting
Erewash is near me
I shall watch with interest
Any more news on the deal for that Surrey council that were indicating a 15% CT hike??!

Another question:
"Police sources suggest that prosecutors might want to make an example out of one or two cases and results in those constituencies could be annulled, meaning by-elections."

Can an MP be turfed out of the seat just by the Electroal Commission stating that their campaign exceeded the spending limit, or does there first have to be a civil court case, or even a criminal trial against someone and a guilty verdict ?

Mainly, I'm wondering aout the timeline, because a trial of any sort could delay things by maybe a year

Is it just spending limits, or is it to do with stuffing ballot boxes with false votes?

Swedish's link about "May's Bluff* is most informative:

" it is now accepted even by the Government that there will not be enough time to negotiate a comprehensive trade deal before we cease being a member of the European Union.
So Ministers in private briefings talk now about securing transitional arrangements that will form a bridge to some permanent deal, which will be thrashed out a number of years in the future."

Yes, unless May goes for either an EEA or WTO Brexit, trade deals will take years.
The problem is, the terms of the transition, in particular FOM, also ECJ

BUT

"Fully fledged formal trade deals have to be ratified by each and every member state — which, not counting Britain, means 27 countries and 39 parliamentary chambers — before they can come into force.
The so far untested question is whether an interim deal counts as a new deal that needs such ratification or whether it can be passed off as a continuation of the status quo, in which case perhaps there would be no need for the national governments to have a say."

AND - the UK has (yet another) WTO problem:

"40 nations have joined the WTO during Britain’s time as a member of the EU — and, from our position within the EU, we have been one of the toughest countries in demanding concessions from them before they were allowed in.
They are now forming a queue to kick us back the moment we are on our own."

I always suspected that countries with a grudge might block the UK at the WTO, but I was thinking of Argentina, or former colonies.

May will have her work cut out to explain that in a GE.
Oh wait, if Corbyn is still there, she could probably win on a manifesto of nhs privatisation.
He's the gift that keeps giving to the Tories

Peregrina Just spending limits.
It's happened very occasionally before in a single seat and those occasions looked to be sloppy accounting rather than deliberate. So no real sanction applied.

Howver, on this alleged scale, it looks like gross arrogance, assuming that they can do what they want

Hence why I was wondering if the Tory angst about leaks was about an insider leaking info aout it to the media and hence causing the police enquiry.

I do not know any of the legal implications and how it will play out. Yet...

Sure we will found out soon enough.

Do you think Farage would stand again if it was South Thanet?

"unless May goes for either an EEA or WTO Brexit, trade deals the Brexit negotiations will take years." I should have said:

a WTO Brexit would be followed by several years of negotiating trade deals - with hardly any trained UK negotiators yet.

Hence why I was wondering if the Tory angst about leaks was about an insider leaking info aout it to the media and hence causing the police enquiry.
Or, if very cynical, is it a Tory insider leaking it in such a way that makes it look like a leak from the police?

red I was thinking as I read your post, that Farage might be quite flummoxed:

he wouldn't want to be an MP while someone else is leader.
However, he seems to have decided he cba to run UKIp any more and those "low grade people".
Especially now his referendum performance has brought him fame in the US and medi contracts here.

Also red your link raising the possibility Trump might have been investigated as an enemy agent:

I call him Agent Orange, because I've always wondered if he might be at least an "Agent of Influence" as the KGB used to call people who didn't spy in the sense of smuggling out info, but whose function was to influence public policy.

Um, I've had suspicions about a few specific Labour politicians and staff wrt Russian or East German Agents of Influence:
It's noticeable that some who were publically sympathetic to a communist USSR have strangely carried over this loyalty to fascist Putin's Russia.

Peregrina

It is quite big, more than 12 police forces are investigating. "It is on an unprecedented scale" according to a judge.

"64 days 2 hours , 51 mins 39 secs is how long is left before it's too late to investigate. The clock is ticking on #electionexpenses. The deadlines for police action start to expire around two years after the 2015 General Election."
May? and then it's too late to do anything.

If your go to this:

www.electionexpenses.co.uk.

You get a short time line of it.

It goes, as John Snow says,to the heart of democracy.

If election expenses rule are not followed, we are America, or the DUP funding for Leave. And look what happened there. With Banks' dodgy capital, election expenses are key.

Hashi and BCF you've got me guessing who you mean as tory leakers and labour Putin supporters.

Seumas Milne?

Don't forget Kate Hoey and Labour Leave.

Nothing to see there either. Honest gov.

Oh wait, if Corbyn is still there, she could probably win on a manifesto of nhs privatisation.
DH and I were having a good old natter about the HOL and our democracy last night. Though its something that in theory we'd object to if it didn't exist and was suggested to be put in, we actually like the added measure of the HOL. In fact we both came to the conclusion we liked our democracy for the reason that you can have moderates, eurosceptics and europhiles for example all in one parliament and its great because it keeps you honest, as does the added check of the HOL. Except clearly its gone totally tits up right now because the complete lack of opposition means the HOL are the closest to performing that role as by fulfilling their own they're actually standing against parliament. I suppose all democracies eventually hit their points of cock up and require some fundamental change. Have we hit ours?

woman I was just being uber cynical and thinking a little The Thick of It. Leak a story but make it look like someone else.

I agree, Hashi, patrician non partisan and pretty eccentric, the HOL is all we have between us and the shits atm.

I'm too ignorant(repulsed by) individual tories to know who it could have been Hashi but wonder if there's a wet tory revolt or if it's Banks' mates. The evening standard article was so plaintive about what they're doing to us, wonder if wet tories might have found their consciences.

Kate Hoey got UKIP money too right? She would seem a possibility *red

"The Nationalist 'grouping' has 30 seats and the Unionist 'grouping' also has 30 seats (if you include Claire Sugden, independent Unionist and TUV)."

Should have proof read.

Nationalist grouping have 39 seats, all included. Around 43% of seats.

Unionist grouping have 40 seats, all included. Around 44% of seats.

Mea culpa. I have no explanation.

Gosh, these are exhausting times.The world's gone mad. How on earth did May make that speech in Scotland with a straight face. Maybe it is a cry for help. Mind you, scruples seem to be missing from the canvas right now.

You couldn't make up what is happening in the US. If you wrote a script like it a decade ago, it would probably have been rejected as too incredible.