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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

OP posts:
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howabout · 24/02/2017 06:48

Best comment I've seen on Stoke result on Sky live feed - "yep UKIP needed Lib / Dems to take a lot more seats from Labour". This is always going to be the problem of voting Lib / Dem rather than Labour as a Brexit protest. Glad Labour voters in Stoke didn't.

howabout · 24/02/2017 06:49

sorry "seats" should be "votes"

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 07:06

Best comment I've seen on Stoke result on Sky live feed - "yep UKIP needed Lib / Dems to take a lot more seats from Labour". This is always going to be the problem of voting Lib / Dem rather than Labour as a Brexit protest.

Depends on the constituency, surely? Under Corbyn, Labour are threatened on both sides: by the LDs taking centre left and remain votes, and by UKIP taking the racist vote. Which of these is the greatest threat depends on the constituency, but it would be ironic if Labour had decided to appeal to the racist vote and forgo the centrist/remain vote, and it turned out that the latter was bigger than the former...

Ironically, considering your comment was about Stoke, it's probably more relevant to Copeland (although it wouldn't have changed the result) - looks like Tory remainers were prepared to vote loyally, but some Labour remainers went to the LDs.

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 07:21

First agriculture, now construction:

news.sky.com/story/construction-recruits-dry-up-amid-brexit-fears-10779233

Prediction: December quarterly stats will show a big drop in net migration.

howabout · 24/02/2017 07:27

Not much difference in Copeland as the Lib /Dem vote was depressed in 2015. The fact that it does apply to both at all merely reiterates the point.

When I looked at Labour seat split the Remain seats in places like central London are Lab / Con contests with both sets of voter favouring Remain. Any peel off to Lib / Dem tends to benefit Con. I didn't find examples of Lab / Lib Dem marginals but there are a few Con / lib Dem marginals like Richmond where a protest vote works against the Tories but not in favour of Labour.

boredofbrexit · 24/02/2017 07:31

From Telegraphs comments page:

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders
howabout · 24/02/2017 07:32

Not sure why it is a bad thing if there are fewer foreign workers building un-affordable London flats to sell to overseas investors and left to lie empty stifling growth.

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 07:35

The stoke by-election is unlikely to change people's lives or lose them their jobs, so no bored Hmm

Peregrina · 24/02/2017 07:36

My impression is that the UKIP votes have gone back to the Tories - they might as well, now that the Tories have lurched to the right - why vote for the monkey when you can vote for the organ grinder?
The LibDems are picking up the centrist Tories and Remain votes. Interesting times.

I felt sorry about Copeland. First thoughts were - we will see how well the Tories work for you when the EU subsidies cease. Second thought was, bye-bye maternity hospital. The ones who suffer here won't be the women with 'high risk' pregnancies because they would probably get referred to Carlisle anyway and plan accordingly - it's more the ones in the middle, who have a couple of risky factors and need keeping an eye on. Also more unattended roadside births. Well, this is what you voted for Copeland.

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 07:39

Not sure why it is a bad thing if there are fewer foreign workers building un-affordable London flats to sell to overseas investors and left to lie empty stifling growth.

We can agree that it's ludicrous to build homes that will be bought by people who need them and won't be occupied year-round, but you are wrong about growth: lower migration will have a direct impact on GDP.

SemiPermanent · 24/02/2017 07:40

Howabout, there were a few of the talking head politicians across various programs yesterday saying about how (shock horror) care homes would need to start paying more to their workers to attract & retain them if the immigration keeps stagnating....
Also, how it's vital now that UK invest in skills based training asap as we'll no longer be able to rely on imported skills...

Who knew?!

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 07:43

Any peel off to Lib / Dem tends to benefit Con

Tell that to Zac.

Depends on the constituency: was not true in Witney or Richmond.

Peregrina · 24/02/2017 07:45

From the article:

Brexit supporters might think that's a good thing, but Mr Clarke says among British workers there are higher levels of sickness and candidates are not as well trained.

He says the sickness rate among eastern Europeans is ten times lower than that of their British colleagues, while UK workers also expect higher pay.

He said: "We simply don't have the amount of skilled labour to run large projects without eastern European help.

I tended to think, boo hoo here. It's up to the large firms to train more workers. I can't believe that there aren't enough young people willing to work in the building trade. Then pay a decent wage for the skilled trades people they have got. As for sickness - I suspect they need to look into what causes it more.

Peregrina · 24/02/2017 07:48

Also, how it's vital now that UK invest in skills based training asap as we'll no longer be able to rely on imported skills...

It's a pity that they needed the kick up the backside of Brexit to start thinking this. So eventually things might come good, but there will be a couple of lost decades, I think.

Peregrina · 24/02/2017 07:52

Sky News incidentally is saying that Copeland was an ultra -safe Labour seat. I don't think it was - I think it was always relatively marginal. One of those areas with an industrial centre and a rural surround.

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 07:53

Peregrina: Brexit related building boom in Paris, your loss is our gain ;)

walruswhiskers · 24/02/2017 07:54

I do wonder if one thing that comes out of Brexit (keen remainer here) might be an increase in the pay for low skilled, undervalued work. For years we've relied on immigrants to pick our fruit, care for our old, labour on our building sites because homegrown unskilled people weren't keen to do crappy jobs for pay that wasn't much better than benefits. Well, supply and demand would tell us that if the labour supply reduces, pay will rise. So I suppose the best case scenario would be an economic boom fuelled by increased wages at the bottom of the pay heap.

No idea where the money would come from to begin with though...

TheElementsSong · 24/02/2017 08:01

No idea where the money would come from to begin with though...

There's this big red bus...

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 08:01

I guess it all comes down to profit margins as well (Warning; I am not a business person!). Can care homes afford to raise wages? This is going to become a very big issue with our ageing population. Will you need significant subsidies from government in order to raise wages? This is already an issue at the other end of the scale in child care. Profit margins are slim so lack of subsidies means that staff are poorly paid at the same as the cost begins to approach unnaffordability for those paying for it.

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 08:02

Should add that you don't have problems with home grown recruitment in child care- it's a much more attractive job for many school leavers.

SemiPermanent · 24/02/2017 08:03

The big message for me wrt the by elections isn't necessarily Brexit (Richmond was though I think).

It was as RTB has been saying - the apathy that has been increasing over the last few decades is due to being and feeling taken for granted & forgotten.
Scotland spoke against that when they eschewed labour for SNP - SNP WM voters are not especially in favour of independence, they're in favour of having a voice in WM and not being taken for granted anymore by Labour.

I do think Labour's 'message' is essentially good - it's Corbyn that's not good for them.
However, I think Corbyn is a necessary downside at the mo as he is overseeing a shift in the type of Labour politician (i.e. Local champions, not parachuted in London-approved types).

Interesting too that the by-elections in Stoke, Copeland & Richmond were caused by MPs leaving as they had 'better things' to do (or ego in the case of Goldsmith) - proving they never really gave a toss about the improvement/betterment of their constituencies in the first place.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 08:04

Party & leader go together wrt policies:
ntbo, both now and in early 1980s a very leftwing leader was only elected because the party activists & membership wanted wanted more leftwing policies.

There is the particular problem with Corbyn that he is an abysmal leader, chaotic and seems to have little interest in Parliament, where the power to do things lies. He appears to have no talent.
Foot was competent and highly talented

In both cases, party & leader turned off a public who were far more less leftwing.

In the 1980s, Foot had the decency to resign after the abysmal Labour performance in the 1983 GE.
Then Labour picked leaders that were successively more rightwards until Blair.

One major reason so many Labour activists hate Blair is that he won by taking Labour to the centre, so it was no longer advocating genuinely leftwing policies, more like liberal centrist domestically and Tory abroad.

It took Labour over 10 years from abyss to becoming a contender again for government.
First they had to acknowledge that, however much they wished otherwise, there are insufficient voters on the left alone to win a UK GE.
So they had to attract centre and even centre-right voters

  • which meant changing both leader and policies

Of course, a disastrous Brexit could be a gamechanger - which is I suspect is the game plan for at least some Lexiters, like McDonnell

Otherwise, the longer Labour remain in denial, the longer before they can rebuild
Aim for the 2030 GE ?

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 08:07

Most voters seem to be of the "I'm all right Jack" tendency
e.g. voted for a govt promising £12 billion cuts in welfare, won't agree to pay more tax for better nhs, welfare, public services.
Sufficient voters are doing very nicely to keep the Tories in power for a v long time - barring a Brexit disaster

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 08:08

Well, supply and demand would tell us that if the labour supply reduces, pay will rise.

It's a lot more complicated than that. Supply and demand will balance eventually, but this can also be achieved by reducing the demand for labour via businesses closing, or replacing labour with automation.

Mistigri · 24/02/2017 08:10

Not that I disagree that there are some unskilled but vital jobs that should be paid more, like care work. But that will require higher taxes.