Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

consider how long it took to negotiate WTO membership terms.
But we aren't starting from scratch. Is there any reason why countries wont agree to trade under the current WTO deal we currently trade under?

If you walk into a bank trying to get them to loan you money for a business you need to have a plan on what you're going to do with it then and there Different relationship one is taking, one is giving, totally different. If you walked into a car dealership and and publicized you were willing to pay full price for the car, is the dealer going to give you a discount?

Euratom is a pretty big indicator of not having a plan How so? Its an indicator of what needs to be done as we leave the EU. You see obstacle I see challenge.

Thanks informal:
Unless red has already done this, from the first half of the amendments doc
Key bits(I think!):
*full agreement with NI and Scotland and Wales;
A National Convention of a range of reps to review negotiations:
A referendum on final deal.

Agreement of the Joint Ministerial Committee on European Negotiation
The Prime Minister may not exercise the power under section 1(1) until at least one month after all members of the Joint Ministerial Committee on European Negotiation have agreed a UK wide approach to, and objectives for, the UK’s negotiations for withdrawal from the EU.
The Prime Minister may not exercise the power under section 1(1) until at
(a) the Prime Minister has met with the First Ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to discuss the formal notification process and;
(b) the Joint Ministerial Committee has unanimously agreed to the Prime Minister making such a notification.”

“Northern Ireland Executive ministers
NC149
For the purpose of Article 50(1) of the Treaty on the European Union the words “in accordance with its own constitutional requirements” shall be deemed to require the inclusion of Northern Ireland Executive ministers in negotiations between the UK and the European Union on matters which would be reserved to the UK by virtue of any transposition from EU law but on which competence would otherwise be devolved to Northern Ireland under any Act of Parliament.”
“Endorsement of the final deal for withdrawal from the EU by the devolved assemblies
Before exercising the power under section 1, the Prime Minister must give a commitment that Her Majesty’s Government shall submit the terms of any proposed agreement with the European Union on the UK’s withdrawal to—
(a) the National Assembly for Wales,
(b) the Northern Ireland Assembly, and
(c) the Scottish Parliament
and that the Government will not proceed with any agreement on those terms
unless it has been approved by each of the devolved assemblies.”
Member’s explanatory statement
ove the following Clause—
“National Convention
NC168
(1) Before exercising the power under section 1, the Prime Minister must undertake to establish a National Convention on Exiting the European Union.
(2) The National Convention shall advise Her Majesty’s Government on its priorities during negotiations with the EU on the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
(3) Ministers of the Crown must take into account the views of the National Convention before signing any agreements with the European Commission on the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
(4) Membership of the National Convention shall be determined by the Secretary of State and shall include—
(a) elected mayors,
(b) elected representatives of local government,
(c) representatives of universities and higher education,
(d) representatives of universities and higher education,
(e) representatives of business organisations,
(f) members of the Scottish Parliament,
(g) members of the National Assembly of Wales,
(h) members of the Northern Ireland Assembly,
(i) members of the European Parliament,
(j) other representatives considered by the Secretary of State to represent expertise and experience of British civil society.
“Future relationship with the European Union
(1) Following the exercise of the power in section 1, any new treaty or relationship with the European Union must be subject to the express approval of Parliament.
(2) It shall be the policy of Her Majesty’s Government that, in the event of Parliament declining to approve such a new treaty or relationship, further time to continue negotiations with the European Union shall be sought.”
Member’s explanatory statementReferendum on the proposed exit package
(1) A referendum is to be held on whether the United Kingdom should approve the United Kingdom and Gibraltar exit package proposed by HM Government at conclusion of the negotiations triggered by Article 50(2) for withdrawal from the European Union or remain a member of the European Union.
(2) The Secretary of State must, by regulations, appoint the day on which the referendum is to be held.
(3) The day appointed under subsection (2)—
(a) must not be 4 May 2017;
(b) must not be between 1 November 2017 and 1 January 2018;
(c) must not be 3 May 2018;
(d) must not be 2 May 2019; and
(e) must be more than three months before 7 May 2020.
(4) The question that is to appear on the ballot papers is—
“Do you support the Government’s proposed United Kingdom and Gibraltar exit package for negotiating withdrawal from the European Union or Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”
(5) The alternative answers to that question that are to appear on the ballot papers are—
“Support the Government’s proposed exit package
Remain a member of the European Union”.

Lico here's hoping.

Lico, in fairness Fillon is accused of paying his wife the best part of €1m from public funds for work she says she didn't do and they seem to have be having a hard time showing any evidence she did. I don't have a problem with that being in the open and I'd definitely prefer Macron to Fillon, as would many left leaning voters. Fillon is a right winger not keen on gay marriage or abortion. Macron is taking a centrist position.

Le Pen, new scandal notwithstanding is going to go through to round 2. (isn't her odious press officer ENA too?) We're prepared for that. But at the moment she won't beat the other candidate The latest polls have Macon beating her 67/30. I can't believe anyone of his generation would be stupid enough to think any kind of affair would stay hidden but am fully prepared for this election to get very nasty as the FN social media campaign gets into full swing.

Different relationship one is taking, one is giving, totally different. If you walked into a car dealership and and publicized you were willing to pay full price for the car, is the dealer going to give you a discount?
You're still talking purely of negotiation. There's far more to leaving than that. There's no plan on what to do with agencies once we back out of them. Even when there's no need to do it right now. This isn't something that comes out of negotiation with the EU. Its stuff we can do at home all by ourselves, but we aren't. If we have no in house plan, then we have no wider plan. Well none beyond we'll have some negotiations. Which we're actually bound to have, so its not even our plan.

*no need to back out of them right now

GloriaGaynor - I think that a second referendum on the deal would be very significant if three options were on the table a) take the deal b) leave without any deal c) stay now we have seen what deal we would be offered given that we don't like it.

There's more on impact assessment and protecting existing rights, I've only done about half of it but
constitutional bits are:

Parliamentary approval
“Parliamentary approval of the final terms of withdrawal from the EU
The United Kingdom shall withdraw from the EU once either—
(a) Royal Assent is granted to an Act of Parliament that approves—
(i) the arrangements for withdrawal, and
(ii) the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU
as agreed to between the United Kingdom and EU, or
(b) Royal Assent is granted to an Act of Parliament that approves the United Kingdom’s withdrawal without an agreement being reached between the United Kingdom and the EU.

If no deal cancel the whole thing!
Request for Suspension of Authorisation

If Parliament has not approved terms on which the UK will leave the European Union within the two years specified in Clause 3 of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, or any extension of the negotiation period agreed in accordance with that clause, then the Government must request the European Council to consider the notification authorised by this Act as suspended.”
Member’s explanatory statement
The Prime Minister may not exercise the power under section 1(1) until she has sought an undertaking from the European Council that failure by the Parliament of the United Kingdom to approve the terms of exit for the UK will result in the maintenance of UK membership on existing terms.”

Presuming very few if these will make it through, but it is mega.
It gives a glimpse of the immense complexity of disentangling a 21st century country from an economic, political and legal union. Immense and I'm sure there's loads that even in this list of amendments has been missed out.

In fairness to Theresa May and the government, much as it pains me, I think her plan has given as much information as we might expect. She has said that she wants us out of the Single Market and much of the Customs Union.

I wouldn't give her the benefit of the doubt. One word - mandate?
Not in the Tory manifesto. Not a question on the Referendum.
Entirely what she wants - let's cut out the guff that they are hiding behind that it's the will of the people. It's what Theresa May (now) wants and a handfully of loony extreme right wingers. I.e. at best 40 or so people are holding the country to ransom.

Human nature is resilient, so people will make the best of it. Germany survived, but at huge cost and it has taken a long time.

Euratom is a pretty big indicator of not having a plan

How so? Its an indicator of what needs to be done as we leave the EU. You see obstacle I see challenge.

And your experience of it is.......?
It's a completely separate treaty, so not even a whisker of it appeared on the Referendum paper. It came as a complete bolt from the blue to the management of the Atomic Energy Industry. Now, I happen to know a couple of retired senior members of the same industry, and I can tell you they have more intelligence in their little fingers than Theresa May has in her whole body. It's a prime example of her complete and utter stupidity.

Usually : I agree. However some quarters are arguing that Fillon did not do anything illegal.
My worry is that by destroying Fillon, Le Pen will gain a lot. Yes, her press officer or partner is énarque (ENA); she will know how to use all of this orchestrated coup on Fillon to her advantage. Many Enarques around..

Subtle signs like everything she says and everything she does aka your guessing. She is leading, she is decisive, she is showing all the hallmarks of knowing what she is doing aka a plan.

The White Paper TM did produce wasn't worth the paper it was written on I agree she had already outlined her plan previously.

Dicks swinging? Where?

As an aside, min this ENA 'mafia
', I just read that Oxford and Cambridge have an intake of 22.000 and 18.000 students respectively per year. Whereas ENA selects only 80 students per year and Science Po 9600 of which 42% are international students.

classes.blogs.liberation.fr/2014/09/07/france-angleterre-ces-ecoles-de-lelite-qui-nous-gouvernent/

I can tell you they have more intelligence in their little fingers than Theresa May has in her whole body.
Which is precisely why they must go. We voted to get rid of experts as well as forriners you know

stripey surely including option c could encourage an unacceptable deal to be offered (if it was the case that the EU wanted the UK to remain, which is far from certain).

But we aren't starting from scratch. Is there any reason why countries wont agree to trade under the current WTO deal we currently trade under?

Yeah because those are EU tariffs. Based on 36 trade deals with 58 different countries.

We may be able to cut and paste a lot of goods' tariffs, although one may question the point of leaving the EU if we are simply going to keep them the same. But sensitive areas like farming/agriculture are more complicated. And tariff rate quotas - where a certain amount is allowed in at lower tariffs - and the quotas are divided up between states. These would would have to be negotiated and can be controversial.

And then there's services, which will be legally very complicated to sort out even if we kept the terms broadly the same.

One ex WTO official commented: “Recent negotiating experience suggests that willingness to accommodate each other’s interests quickly is a scarce commodity in the WTO.”

The most recent country to join is Liberia, which is a much smaller economy and yet the terms took a few years to agree.

I think that a second referendum on the deal would be very significant if three options were on the table a) take the deal b) leave without any deal c) stay now we have seen what deal we would be offered given that we don't like it.

Which is why it will never be offered.

If the government have learnt one thing it's that referendum outcomes cannot be controlled. They haven't come this far without a clear mandate and proper democratic debate, to fall at the same hurdle as Cameron.

*You think that the German public did hate Jews?You think that the electorate do hate the EU and foreigners?

Or you think the German 1933 Referendum to leave the League of Nations was something she made up and not a matter of historical record?*

What on earth are you havering about now Peregrina?
Please do feel free to point out precisely where I said any of that.

Ffs.

Yeah because those are EU tariffs. Based on 36 trade deals with 58 different countries.

If that's not clear - our current terms are EU terms. We have to regularise our status within the WTO as in independent country.

Isn't it the alt right hi jacking trans rights to attack feminism? Divide and rule tactics?

Not at all. Transactivists are perfectly capable of attacking feminism all on their own. And the Women's Marches did not entirely go off without protest from the trans quarter...

www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/24/transgender-community-felt-isolated-womens-march/
If it's not about trans people it shouldn't happen apparently, and how dare women be women, march as women for women and not put their concerns aside and only promote the interests of transwomen. They found the pink pussy hats objectionable because they were a reminder that biology exists.

The fascism is clearly visible in the de-platforming of Greer and many others, the extreme hatred expressed in thoughts of committing extreme violence against radical or gender critical feminists all over the internet, and the execrable attitude towards lesbians. But it's not a case of transactivists being taken advantage of or used by other parties.

If any hijacking has been done, it is actually the hi-jacking of the LGB rights movement by the Ts.

BBC's Bitesize is good on German aggression in the 1930s, bearing in mind that it's written for schoolchildren. Spot some familiar arguements being trotted out by our own politicians.

Havering! Love that word. Reminds me of the Proclaimers

Who's reported Peregrina's post for goodness sake? It was perfectly innocuous.

It's the absence of this kind of nonsense that makes this thread so valuable.

If you don't like it, why not stay in the pub?