Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

Jamie also needs to consider how long it took to negotiate WTO membership terms.

A plan on how to implement something is not the same type of thing as a plan to negotiate something. The implementation plan comes after you have agreed a deal.

If you walk into a bank trying to get them to loan you money for a business you need to have a plan on what you're going to do with it then and there. Or they think you're a fool.

Dont want 52 weeks a year

Just the 14 will do me

I am very reasonable

And i dont want a PM who 'slaps one together in the middle of the night'

Euratom is a pretty big indicator of not having a plan. Or not a thorough enough one anyway.

There is a difference between standing at the bottom of a cliff and jumping off it Good job we are escaping a club and nowhere near a cliff.

OK I will bite, how do you know that TM hasn't got plan?

Subtle signs like everything she says and everything she does.

What makes you think she has got a plan that amounts to more than a wish list?

So whats the point in TM doing the same?

The White Paper TM did produce (after the Commons vote) wasn't worth the paper it was written on. A giant wish list.

Kaija and he's got such good taste in music. I think the elders are being ignored in all societies in the west, to our cost, it's not helping in decision making. Memories of what it was really like last time are no longer first hand and not believed.

Not that he's that old!

All these myths about negotiation strategy are another example of stereotypes and ignorance. The art of negotiation stopped being focused on secrecy and dick swinging even in the west at least thirty years ago. A quick google of the words effective negotiation soon take you there www.forbes.com/sites/jennagoudreau/2012/10/08/the-secret-art-of-negotiating-take-your-ego-off-the-table/#1a5bca972244 Trump has a failing business as a direct result of his dick swinging bullying approach, it does not work long term. Effective negotiation is about being positive and taking the egos out of it. The Chinese realised it a couple of millennia ago. A good negotiator understands the balance of power and the various hands that will be played, and focuses on the best outcome for all, it is chess not poker. That is what Xi, not even very subtly by Chinese standards, has been signalling in his speeches. It is also why Sir Ivan Rogers was so frustrated, you cannot prepare effectively to negotiate if you ignore the power held by the other side, and the way they are likely to play it.

The White paper such as it was, was just a political pacifier. May is just embracing the outdated unsuccessful dick swing model... Soon we will be like Trump, left with nobody willing to invest or do business with us ......

woman12345 - So you only ask once and not on the terms of the agreement? You know what sort of political system does that? I guess one where a majority of the Parliament voted to do it. How can you ask twice when the knowledge of a second referendum will actually stop you from negotiating a good outcome? Isn't that an oxymoron?

No it's not.

In countries where they know how to hold referenda properly, like ROI and Belgium for example, the people voting at the end of a negotiating process is fairly common practice and largely doesn't effect too much. Other than their negotiators of course requiring to think of all their citizens rather than just a handful.

ron Another advantage the east and China have is that they have been 'othered' by the west, which fits in well with an observational, reflective, and strategic approach to all human behaviours. Sadly the opposite seems to be true of how the west in conducting itself atm. as 'dick swinging' as you put it is the modus operandi of all the dicks.

an oxymoron.

Had they followed his well thought out outline (he's been working toward this for years) then I honestly don't think the whole thing would have been as divisive as it has.

He was at perfect liberty to promote his outline after the referendum, to recommend a second one, a clearer mandate, democratic legitimacy, but he clammed up like a gnat's arse.

The politicians spectacularly misjudged the deep feelings of the electorate & presumed to take the electorate for granted in the same way that they've been doing for years now.

Please don't talk crap about deep feelings of the electorate. The electorate don't hate the EU or foreigners any more than the German public hated the Jews. They have simply been manipulated by hard right politicians and the media for a long time.

There is a lot of genuine, justified anger about the rise of inequality and the way the north and provinces have been neglected by successive governments, but that's fuck all to do with the EU. The EU have tried to mitigate that.

Politicians, including Cameron, underestimated the deviousness of other politicians. And Cameron in particular way, way overestimated the intelligence of the British public.

That is why I get pissed off beyond belief when Remain voters turn their anger & outrage on the Leave voters - people voted, that's all, it was a once in a lifetime opportunity to vote to leave and they took it. The anger should not be toward 'fuckwit, xenophobe, racist Leave voters', but toward the politicians.

You think you're pleased now, only because you have no idea what the economic consequences will be. People think because they haven't hit yet, they're not coming. In five to ten years it will be a different story.

The anger is directed where it should be imo. We live in an age when politicians and media lie and manipulate and it's the public's responsibility to research the truth.

You're going to have to get used to that anger as it will increase as the economic situation deteriorates.

I have mentioned before the 1933 referendum in Germany to leave the League of Nations. It was a very popular vote at the time. Although there were already Fascistic elements ensuring a high turn out. The population had no idea of the consequences of, or the agenda behind that vote either.

woman "Dick swinging" "Sense of entitlement" 'illusions of superiority" Whatever you want to call it....

Ireland has a written constitution and changes to the constitution must be ratified by the electorate - so treaties negotiated by the government representatives that impinge on the constitution are only provisional until passed in a referendum. Then Ireland also has a referendum commission whose role is to explain in neutral terms the issue being voted on, agreed ramifications, and the nature of the change from the status quo.

In fairness to Theresa May and the government, much as it pains me, I think her plan has given as much information as we might expect. She has said that she wants us out of the Single Market and much of the Customs Union.

What happens now actually depends on the EU's plan for us I think, than any plan we might have. The EU has the greater amount of power in this negotiation and will most likely call the shots.

The EU, of course, will not have a plan for Brexit yet, as this still needs to be negotiated between the various nation states. As has been said many times on here, we will be in limbo until after the French and German elections later this year, and probably for a good while beyond that. It is craziness to invoke article 50 now for the purposes of negotiation, but of course politically convenient which is of primary importance to May.

The proposed amendments to the Brexit bill are of course still very important. The most important being the need for a referendum on an deal Theresa May is offered by the EU, on the basis that article 50 is probably revocable.

well, months later, no common ground. every opinioned opined shot down as wrong. every intention denounced deluded.
As a leave voter I am cautiously okay with the situation as it stands. I think May's statement of intent was fine, sufficient. The only swinging dicks I see are on the other side, in Europe. I feel the delays and ill-intentions of some are unhelpful but I am practicing patience.

We are where we are. And if we end up with a GE because next week brings a vote of no confidence then so be it - either the mood of the country has shifted or it hasn't, but in one way or another our course would be settled.

Faisal Islam ‏*@faisalislam* 22m22 minutes ago

There are now 146 pages of amendments for Article 50 Bill this week -more pages than there are words (137) in Bill

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0132/amend/european_daily_cwh_0203.pdf …

Hey bored, I don't think the EU is in a position to set out what it can give us yet. It will need to be negotiated between all the member states before it can be offered to us.

There has been a bit of sabre rattling from both sides so far. We have threatened to become an offshore tax haven for Europe if we don't get what we want which is not super-friendly.

I'd welcome a general election. I reckon the Lib Dems are vastly underrated at the moment and people are waking up to some of the dangers of populism.

I don't think a referendum on a deal is that significant. Rejecting it would cause havoc and there's no guarantee or much likelihood that the government would be able to renegotiate. Despite what May says a bad deal is better than no deal.

That's just the situation that this folly has pushed us into.

Woman/Hash .
Yes, Hollande is a idiot.
If you look up most of the French senior people in Goverments (past and present), they are all issued from Grandes Ecoles ;Sciences Po, ENA, Saint Cyr etc. anybody who does not correspond to that profile will be quickly brought down.
Fillon for one, Sarko (although he did Science Po I think).
France is a very elitist country; Oxford and Cambridge are more democratic by comparison!!

Le Pen , well , she is a criminal lawyer specialising in defending the rights of illegal immigrants.. So she knows which strings to pull . The father is a problem though..she will make the first round but will fail the second like her father did years ago.

math see, a country that knows how to hold proper referenda