Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

Thank you Cecile, Bigchoc, Lala and Tiggy for your thoughts on A50. It's uncharted waters: no-one really knows what will happen.

The last 2 paragraphs of this blog (by a Professor at the Blavatnik School of Govt. at Oxford Uni) talk about a series of 6 unlikely events which could halt Brexit.
Number 5 is 'it becomes clear that A50 can be revoked.'

mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/why-is-no-one-talking-about-angry.html?m=1

I can also see us in years to come going cap in hand back to the EU saying crap like 'but we did that for you, you wouldn't be as strong etc

I entirely agree. I think in 15-20 years we will go back needing the single market etc, and we will never again get as good a deal as we had, and the price will be our currency.

Not that the Euro will necessarily continue as it is, it may end up as a two tier currency, or a Northern European one.

But humiliation is good for the soul. And I think the UK has had it coming for a long time.

Thank you Cecile, Bigchoc, Lala and Tiggy for your thoughts on A50 me too thanks.

whatwouldrondo I'd vote for some one who has the sense to use some Confucian thought in domestic and international politicking.
And on what you said about Tibet: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/feb/10/tibet-china-feudalism

I can also see us in years to come going cap in hand back to the EU

Or the Euro collapses, the EU fragments and some countries come cap in hand asking to join the UK! Could go either way.

Not my thread to do this, but can I say thanks to the people who have delurked to say thank you? I spend a lot of my life reading, listening and worrying about this stuff and it is really good to know that the discussion and thought is going wider than this thread alone.

There's not much likelihood of the euro collapsing though. It's not something that would benefit the world as a whole. Other nations would step in before. Same as why sterling isn't likely to collapse either. More likelihood the euro is changed somehow as gloria suggested.

Having said that Trump could massively change things

Gosh, I can see sterling collapsing quite easily in an off-the-cliff-edge Brexit scenario. The euro may end up not being used in as many countries but I think that's got much greater chances of success.

Talking about the idea of a second referendum, guess who said this?

In the same Act of Parliament that establishes the Mandate referendum, we also commit the country to a decision referendum, to be held when the EU negotiation is concluded.

David Davis, towards the end of a speech before the referendum.

www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-opportunities-for-a-referendum-on-europe/

Aren't the graphs showing sterling wobbling like an emerging economy currency already?
btw, there's another thread on aldi prices going up, more pennies dropping.

Hester I like mainlymacro so I read the link out of curiosity.

In answer to one of his queries UKIP came 2nd in 120 seats in 2015 GE and Lib / Dems came 2nd in 63 seats. It would take quite a big change in public opinion in key areas to have a GE impact given the concentration of remain votes in London and, to a lesser extent, other city centres. For Scotland, given SNP hold almost all seats and are pro-remain any Brexit remorse would make absolutely no difference.

I am a bit disappointed mainlymacro didn't run some numbers, although I suspect the obvious outcome may have curtailed him - my brief analysis covers more than half of all Parliamentary seats.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's very likely the currencies could be changed and damaged badly. But if we go down we will take others with us and vice versa which makes not stepping in and stopping it not a palatable option for a lot of the world. The cost of that salvation though is something I wouldn't want to think of

Hester you might want to read the paragraph that follows the one you selected.

Yes Bored that following paragraph is interesting. What do you think it means?

In that referendum the British people would either approve the new negotiated relationship, or if it was not good enough, it would trigger the negotiation to leave the Union.

Sounds like you leave whether you like it or not. Or am I misunderstanding?

www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-opportunities-for-a-referendum-on-europe/

Mainlymacro was interesting

In answer to one of his queries UKIP came 2nd in 120 seats in 2015 GE and Lib / Dems came 2nd in 63 seats

This was particularly bad GE for the Lib Dems, and I don't think it's typical. Nor am I convinced that UKIP are doing quite as well as the media would like us to believe - this is despite their huge bias towards them, with Farage hardly ever being off the television. Think of both the Witney and Sleaford by elections - UKIP came nowhere in Witney and lost their deposit, and an extremely poor second in Sleaford, where a strong showing might have been expected - or perhaps not with the Tories now BlueKip. Why vote for the monkey when you can put the organ grinder in?

Lib Dem membership is up significantly.

In the same Act of Parliament that establishes the Mandate referendum, we also commit the country to a decision referendum, to be held when the EU negotiation is concluded

Completely taken out of context. Can't see date on it but this was speculation before the last election. He is referring to a referendum on the terms and result of a renegotiation of our EU membership. Cameron 'completed' that and we it put to a referendum.

He was NOT suggesting a referendum after A50 was triggered.

What about of the 'people' want another referendum on the final deal Jamie and Bored?
Lib dem results in UKIP areas suggest they might?

if the 'people'

im sure the EU want to wait about while we have a referendum in whether the oeooke want a referendum on the first referendum.

oeooke? thats worse than your typo woman😀

Hester, to say "a speech before the referendum" implies that it was a speech just prior to the ref, as if it was made in the knowledge that the ref was advisory and that David Davis was acknowledging this and pushing for 2 refs (advisory/mandate followed by a 2nd decision ref).

This is rather disingenuous to present it as such.

The speech was from 2012, and was setting out a clear strategy for how he would like to approach renegotiation with the EU leading to possible Brexit.

It was a very well laid out and thoughtful strategy:

"...How to negotiate such a change, and how to obtain the approval of the British people for attempting such a historic deal – one which will affect the future not just for them, but for their children and grandchildren.
^I believe that we can achieve both of these aims with a focussed approach, using the so-called double referendum strategy.
This is less complex than it sounds^..."

"...First it requires us to decide very clearly what our negotiating aims are – really what I have just laid out – during the course of the next year.
^The details may be complex, but the primary aim is clear – to get as close as possible to the trading alliance, the common market we all voted for in 1975.
Then we present that negotiating package to the British people, and seek their approval for it in a referendum.
We would be looking for a clear mandate. And I would be very surprised if the proposal I have described does not obtain a 70% voting majority – greater than we got in ’75, and greater than any modern political party has ever achieved.
In the same Act of Parliament that establishes the Mandate referendum, we also commit the country to a decision referendum, to be held when the EU negotiation is concluded.
In that referendum the British people would either approve the new negotiated relationship, or if it was not good enough, it would trigger the negotiation to leave the Union.
The aim of this strategy is to give the British people the final say, but it is also to massively reinforce the legitimacy and negotiating power of the British negotiating team.^.."

"...The optimal timing for this is to decide the policy in 12 months and hold the mandate referendum in late 2013 or very early 2014. Before the European Parliamentary elections.
That timing would mean that all political parties would have to face up to the problem and decide their European strategy in real time..."

Unfortunately, his sensible strategy was ignored in favour of a rushed in ref (which was approved by parliament).

David Davis had the right idea about how best to approach & manage it all but was ignored at the time (in 2012).

Unfortunately, his sensible strategy was ignored in favour of a rushed in ref (which was approved by parliament).

It was sensible but almost irrelevant because with hindsight the EU probably wouldn't have offered us any more than they did. Leading to exactly the same position we are in now.

It's interesting that he once favoured a 'clear mandate' and 'reinforced legitimacy', when now he doesn't give a shit that he has neither.

Its more than likely at least some of the people of the EU will get a referendum on the final deal from their side, so it wouldn't be like they were waiting for us at all were we to be given a choice.

How, Jamie?