Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

Thank you for the China info and the article by nick cohen.
I've shared the petition on twitter (but I only have 60 followers 😂)
I'm trying to cling to positive news - maybe trump will be prevented for doing too much damage by the judiciary?

Signed, Hester.

This might be interesting - if Debbie is still around, Orban gets a mention: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/05/donald-trump-lies-belief-totalitarianism

Sorry, I know that link has been mentioned downthread as well

www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/05/social-care-council-tax-communities-bill-blame-government?CMP=twt_gu
Ministers move to ‘shift blame for funding cuts to local councils’
Labour says shift of spending power from Commons to local government is an attempt to make councils ‘take ownership’ of unpopular cuts

Remember when David Cameron wrote to his local council complaining about cuts? Well that. Just on steroids.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/05/trump-not-fascist-champion-for-forgotten-millions?CMP=twt_gu
Trump is no fascist. He is a champion for the forgotten millions
(Piece by an American).

www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-1133177.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#ref=rss
Trump as Nero
Europe Must Defend Itself Against America's Dangerous President
(Piece from Germany's De Spiegel)

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/insistent-splenetic-almost-crazed-brexiteers-driven-mad-brexit/
Insistent, splenetic, almost crazed – Brexiteers are being driven mad by Brexit

Adrian Yalland ‏*@AdrianYalland*

@IanDunt @JL_998 even soft brexiters like me are called traitor. It's as if a madness has taken over & we're unable to be reasonable.

That Spectator article rings very true, and also applies to a number of MPs. "We won, and even questioning us is denying the will of the people" is an apt summary of many of their speeches

Jason Spacey ‏*@Jason*_Spacey

What should Nigel Farage's wife do after finding out about his secret bachelor pad?

Remain?

Leave?

Place your vote now.

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/people-who-protest-against-donald-trump-are-not-the-problem-they-are-right/

Revoking A50 ?

It might be possible in theory, but it would need unanimous agreement by the other E27 countries.

So, politically most unlikely even if the UK changes its mind - the E27 don't want to keep going through a UK-related crisis every few years.

However, it could be revoked in an - UNLIKELY disaster scenario - if the UK warns it would otherwise fall off a cliff, e.g. if the WTO quotas can't be sorted, or for whatever reason the UK economy faces meltdown.
The EU just wouldn't let that happen, because disaster for the UK would damage the EU - and vice versa, of course.
So, this assessment back in July still seems valid:

ex-LD MEP Andrew Duff: Revoking A50
http://verfassungsblog.de/brexit-article-50-duff/

Very useful info there btw about the whole A50 process

Under section 50(3):
“That Article 50 is silent on the matter of revocation does not mean that a change of direction would be illegal under EU law (as long as the CJEU were convinced that the switch was constitutional).

The EU is well practised in the art of the stopped clock.

Given the collateral damage done to the remaining EU by Brexit, a notification that London had changed its mind would be met with very great, if somewhat exasperated relief.”

Do we know that the UK would need the agreement of the EU27 to revoke A50? I thought it was the great unknown and that was why Jolyon Maugham had started his Irish case (I'm still unclear if that case has formally begun or not though). I pray that it is reversible but, however much it pisses off the rest of the EU, surely we are a member until the negotiations conclude two years A50 was triggered so logically would we need permission to remain? I admit the whole situation could be fantastically awkward but I'm prepared to live with that, I already spend half my time apologising to incredulous people from the rest of the world about the sheer insanity of the referendum.

....but if A50 could be revoked, would the EU then charge the UK for all the wasted work it had to do?

I wonder what leavers think about Nigel farages comments about the working class people who backed him?
Such utter utter contempt 😡
And apparently we liberals are the ones who are contemptuous of them!!!
🤔🙄

The case hasn't had its first hearing in court yet, no. If it isn't revocable, we would need the consent of the rEU to extend the negotiation period and, given that the current assumption is that it is irrevocable - both parties proceeded on that basis in Miller - it is probably safer to assume that it is, and if it turns out to be revocable that is a bonus and at least we won't have done anything too stupid.

And after two years of negotiation, if we were to find out that Article 50 is revocable after all, what would the EU need to do to prevent any or all countries just giving in a notification under it whenever they want something? Like a bad marriage where one of the parties ends up threatening to leave whenever they are unhappy, to get concessions?

I think after the issue of Brexit is dealt with, however it ends, the EU may look to shore up their article 50 rules. By not explicitly stating revocability but also ruling that negotiations don't take place until after article 50 is triggered, they leave themselves open to member states doing what cecile suggests. Sometimes it takes someone to test something though before you find its problems. Just wish it wasn't us testing it

However, it could be revoked in an - UNLIKELY disaster scenario - if the UK warns it would otherwise fall off a cliff, e.g. if the WTO quotas can't be sorted, or for whatever reason the UK economy faces meltdown.
The EU just wouldn't let that happen, because disaster for the UK would damage the EU - and vice versa, of course

I don't think that disaster is at all unlikely. Rogers resigned on precisely that point, and Kerr (who wrote Article 50) is warning the same.

The question of 'if' WTO tariffs can't be sorted - well they can't, not quickly. They will have to be agreed with all the other WTO members first.

If we can't agree a deal after 2 years or May chooses no deal over a bad one, we won't have time to regularise our WTO schedules to avoid disorder.

Lord Kerr's comments:

In a frank speech at the London School of Economics, he said there was a growing chance that the UK and EU heads of state would not reach an agreement. Kerr claimed “the fog in the channel is getting thicker all the time”, adding even if an agreement was reached by spring 2019 there was a chance “a demob happy European parliament” in its final months before elections in 2019 would refuse to ratify the deal. He put the chances of a deal within two years as now lower than 50%.

Predicting a crunch point in the UK-EU talks of autumn 2018, he said the government was likely to table proposals next spring saying that would be immediately rejected, leading to “an extremely nasty bout of xenophobia in the Daily Mail and Sun in the summer, far worse than the recent attacks on the judges as enemies of the people”

He said that if the UK fell out of the EU without an agreement – the so-called cliff edge – “the result would be a disaster, a bonanza time for lawyers, emergency session of parliament, a huge amount of the British statute book collapses if the 1972 European Communities Act agreement that took us in and our adherence to the EU treaties is abrogated. It means massive uncertainty for economic operators.”

“How do we look from across the channel at moment? We look incoherent. They cannot believe there was not a plan and five months on, there is still no plan. They note the xenophobia – the attacks on foreigners, the sense that the climate in Britain is changing."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/27/chance-orderly-brexit-within-two-years-less-than-50-percent-lord-kerr

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/multiculturalism-is-unpopular-with-the-majority-even-though-it-makes-for-happier-societies/?utmsource=feedburner&utmmmedium=email&utmcampaign=Feed%3A+BritishPoliticsAndPolicyAtLse+%28British+politics+and+policy+at+LSE%29
On the objective benefits of immigration

I think you will find the Brexiteers view making guinea pigs of ourselves as a wonderful, brave martyrdom. If I can find Hansard in support I will post it. If I have time I might draw this together in a blog for my own benefit. I'm sure nobody else will be interested as my writing is apparently "yawn worthy".
Just on a side note, I'm an IP lawyer. Corporate, finance and restructuring lawyers - and tax and arbitration an litigation lawyers - may have a bonanza but IP and data protection lawyers, not to mention human rights, international, criminal, family, housing and so on lawyers are going to be just as fucked as everyone else. I'm certainly not yawning yet.

True cecile. I can also see us in years to come going cap in hand back to the EU saying crap like 'but we did that for you, you wouldn't be as strong and have your legislation so much clearer if it wasn't for us, aren't we great?'

Cecile

The LSE blog you linked to is not objective (case in point to the discussion in the Arms).

The headline and this statement

Our findings about satisfaction with life and with the national government show the complicated political terrain politicians face. Majority group members are more satisfied with both in states that have embraced multiculturalism. These findings represent a quandary for political leaders, who face short-term pressure from nativists – but a population that, in the long term, will be unhappier if they take an isolationist approach

would be an objective conclusion to draw if we knew that correlation equals causation. But we know that correlation does not equal causation, don't we? There may well be reasons the populations are happier in the more multiculural states which have nothing to do with the multiculturalism.

Thanks Wrong - very true, and of course these sort of qualitative studies aren't perfect. But it is standard academic practice to compare like with like and eliminate confounding factors to ensure that correlation isn't mistaken for causation too often.

Any Questions is really worth a listen on iPlayer this week, as well.

Hashi, I think you may be right :(

Agree hashi