Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

😂 good point, Cecile.

It may help to understand the leaving process better is we keep remembering that the EU is the European Union:

Smaller / weaker countries joined together with stronger ones like Germany, to have a more powerful voice when negotiating with the rest of the world.

Expats
Spain could get an agreement quite easily with the UK about expats;
However, Poland would have a much tougher time, because it has more expats in the UK than any other EU country and many of the complaints about British workers losing jobs / pay have been wrt Polish workers

So, Poland - and other EU countries - won't let the UK cherry pick which EU nationalities it allows to stay and which it won't.

After A50 is invoked, there is a period of 2 years (which can be extended) to sort out issues like MEP & civil servant pensions, existing budget commitments etc and expats ...

Article 50 is defined here:
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.htmll_


"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.

In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."

Section 2 of A50 states that it is the Union which negotiates with the leaving country.
All legal opinion I've read interpret that as meaning there can be no bilateral deals on any aspect.
The EU has appointed its negotiators, who will negotiate the deal with the UK and then this deal has to be agreed by the European council & the European Parliament.

From the article about Osborne wanting to get May sacked:
At one cabinet meeting in 2012, Osborne was said to have “declared war”, describing the “horror story” of a Chinese businessman with millions to spend on British products who had been stopped at Heathrow, where he was interrogated for hours and subjected to a full strip search.

He said on his release, the man had returned on the next flight to China where he told his friends to avoid the UK and demanded to know who was responsible for this “debacle”.

May needs to remember this. Prattling about being open for business won't undo this sort of damage easily. Nor did the booting out of 50,000 students on a trumped up charge. The amount of ill-will engendered is potentially enormous and could so easily have been avoided by a more reasonable approach.

The other thing May needs to remember is to keep her enemies close. Osborne and Morgan won't let her forget how she treated them, and as I said the other day, the Tories are good at stabbing people in the back when it's necessary.

You lot need to stop posting stuff that makes me like Osbourne. This isn't sitting well!

It's fascinating to see how those who are embracing our anti-EU lurch to the right here are so hot on condemning the far right elsewhere in Europe. Almost unbelievable.

Does this help Hashi?. I think it was his policies wot won it for brexit.
www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/against-george-osbornes-war-on-the-poor-and-the-vile-stupidity-of-his-workers-vs-shirkers-narrative-8397330.html

Who could have imagined just a year ago the nightmare scenario of missing George Osborne for his reasonable centrist views. It's too surreal.

So, Poland - and other EU countries - won't let the UK cherry pick which EU nationalities it allows to stay and which it won't

BigChoc

Have you read anything which suggests that the government does not want an agreement which would enable any EU nationals, whether from Poland or anywhere else, currently living in the UK to stay?

I have not. Public opinion is strongly in favour of allowing all EU nationals here to stay. Even Migration Watch are in favour.

FT article re call for clarity on EU nationals in UK (from pre- referendum).

www.ft.com/content/c5d52fe8-fd80-11e5-b5f5-070dca6d0a0d

Almost unbelievable I believe itKaija, but it's interesting to see.
Great actions today in Romania, particularly liked that they had a special march for mums and kids. Looks like the marching sometimes helps, as the gov is expected to make a U turn on corruption laws.
Polish women had really successful marches and women's strike in October against gov policy on abortion.

Have you read anything which suggests that the government does not want an agreement which would enable any EU nationals, whether from Poland or anywhere else, currently living in the UK to stay?

Have you looked at how Theresa May actually dealt with Immigration when at the Home Office?
Do you remember the anti-foreigner rhetoric of the Tory Party Conference last October?

When you can say she has treated immigrants fairly, and that the ghastly Conference wasn't as I remembered it, then I will believe that she wants to treat EU immigrants fairly.

At best public opinion is divided - some would dearly love to boot out all immigrants.

www.theguardian.com/books/2017/feb/03/americanism-us-writers-imagine-fascist-future-fiction?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

In 1944, an article called “American Fascism” appeared in the New York Times, written by then vice president Henry Wallace. “A fascist,” wrote Wallace, “is one whose lust for money or power is combined with such an intensity of intolerance toward those of other races, parties, classes, religions, cultures, regions or nations as to make him ruthless in his use of deceit or violence to attain his ends.” Wallace predicted that American fascism would only become “really dangerous” if a “purposeful coalition” arose between crony capitalists, “poisoners of public information” and “the KKK type of demagoguery”. Those defending the new administration insist it isn’t fascism, but Americanism. This, too, was foretold: in 1938, a New York Times reporter warned: “When and if fascism comes to America it will not be labelled ‘made in Germany’; it will not be marked with a swastika; it will not even be called fascism; it will be called, of course, ‘Americanism’.”

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-pick-us-army-head-withdraws-potential-conflicts-of-interest-billionaire-business-tycoon-a7562576.html
Donald Trump's pick to head up US army withdraws over potential conflicts of interest

Surprise announcement by the billionaireWall Street traderleaves a hole in the Trump administration, but distancing himself from his business ties proved difficult

snigger

www.politico.com/story/2017/02/silicon-valley-against-trump-234579
Silicon Valley leaders organizing against Trump

There is now a petition about PR
petition.parliament.uk/petitions/168657
I think it will probably hit 100,000 by the deadline. Its currently half way there.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/04/brexit-bill-rebellion-row-erupts-eurosceptic-claims-27-tory/
Brexit Bill rebellion: Row erupts as Eurosceptic claims 27 Tory MPs poised to back ‘wrecking’ amendments

Diddums. Its not like its enough anyway. Sadly.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/04/dont-belong-solicitor-caught-film-launching-racist-attack/
'You don't belong here' - solicitor caught on film launching racist attack on woman and her young son

Respectable, professional, middle class, white male.

Hardly the 'stupid' working class lager swilling St George's cross stereotype.

British Consulate NY ‏*@UKinNewYork* 23h
.@DHgovuk Secretary @Jeremy_Hunt is in NY with @AntoniaRomeoUK to discuss the close links between the UK & US health sectors #GlobalBritain

Wow such a shocker!!! No one saw this coming.

So why don't the government just say they can stay! They could have done it on 24 June.

.@DHgovuk Secretary @Jeremy_Hunt is in NY with @AntoniaRomeoUK to discuss the close links between the UK & US health sectors #GlobalBritain

What did Theresa May promise about the Health Service at the last PMQs?
That it wasn't for sale to the US.

Liam Fox accidentally sold it and forgot to tell us. He's got such a lot of friends in America.

Peregrina

Recent YouGov poll showed about 80% agreement with all existing EU nationals to have the right to stay if UK nationals likewise. Which leaves 20% for the no's and don't knows.

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2017-01-18/Brexit%20deal-01.png

Cecile

So why don't the government just say they can stay! They could have done it on 24 June

I suppose because they feel this would put UK nationals in the EU in a more vulnerable position. I agree that a mutual agreement would be best and if I was a UK citizen in the EU, I wouldn't want the UK government to put my interests behind those of EU nationals in the UK.

Cecile that list of the 6 countries not in a trade agreement is shocking, brings it home.

Unions, agree, BCF I don't think any of May's pals have read much history.

This casual humiliation like you mentioned about the Chinese businessman Peregrina is a feature of extremist regimes. Horrendous and inhumane.

Red there are no amendments that are going to make a difference, or get passed, are there? Our mate Chuka's?

I could give a **&^ about what YouGov shows. What matters is how Theresa May behaves.

So why don't the government just say they can stay! They could have done it on 24 June.

Because the EU will not reciprocate.

WrongTrouser pp were asking why there couldn't be a bilateral Spanish-Uk deal.
I was trying to explain why bilateral deals would not be in the best interests of countries in weaker position. Hence the deal would need to be with the whole EU.

I totally agree that the uk public - including a majority of Leavers - want those E27 citizens already resident in the UK to be allowed to stay.
That is ordinary decent folk, however they voted, having empathy for others

However, the UK government - especially this one - shows a distinct lack of empathy in its dealings with its own citizens, never mind with foreigners.

May wants to reduce the headline immigration total and expelling a million East Europeans would help disguise the fact that she hasn't been able to reduce non-EU immigration.

I hope and definitely expect that the Uk and EU will agree each others expats can stay, with the same rights for each nationality.
Issues to agree:
from what residence date and how to prove this, rights to the state health service & state benefits, continued payment by each country for the healthcare of its own pensioner expats.

Right, so it is the Uk government's decision. There is nothing standing it its way in practical terms.

Cecile - wrongtrouser has explained it pretty clearly.

Remember that it is the UK that decided to leave.
The EU says the position of UK citizens - unlimited right to stay - won't change unless the UK actually leaves and the Brexit deal changes this status.
That's the same message I received in Germany - and no Brit has reported receiving a "prepare to leave" letter when they applied for permanent residence or German citizenship.

May - after invoking the A50 - should say that the Uk will allow resident E27 expats to stay provided the EU agrees the same for UK expats

Some expats will still be worried about application dates, proof, health care etc but that can't be helped
btw, UK expats living on UK pensions would be suffering a 20% drop in income and maybe more to come. So, they might have to return anyway by 2019.

WrongTrouser has indeed explained very clearly and I understand perfectly. The fact that the government feels something - and I have no idea how in practice a gesture of goodwill from this government which is in fact what the majority of MPs and a few of "the people" want as well, - is not a practical obstacle. That feeling is not the same thing as a legal obstacle or the EU stopping them from doing it. I hope that was as clearly explained.