Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

Can anyone point me in the direction of a quote and not just a nod from Trump that he has committed to NATO as a result of May's intervention?

I might have missed it but as far as I can make out, an awful lot has been made of a "nod of agreement" . This from a man who has said that he will give 30 days notice of trade agreements if he doesn't like their impact, during which time he will re-negotiate the terms

Also we always seem to forget that other EU countries actually needed an emergency brake much more than the Uk. Greece is actually completely overwhemed - refugees and migrants are sleeping in sports stadia and the processing of the related paperwork has swamped their administrative bodies

Sorry, not to conflate economic migrants and refugees, sorry, those are not really related, just that we always seem to buy in to this narrative of immigration actually needing to be stopped or reduced right now. Yes, we voted for it. It isn't an objective need, though.

I was under the impression that one of the concessions that Cameron had negotiated was just such an 'emergency brake' mechanism would be allowed in the event that we voted Remain.

He initially wanted to negotiate an 'emergency brake' on migrant numbers - he was told this would not be countenanced, so binned the idea of even trying at all.
(Think it was Merkel & Ivan Rogers that advised him of that but may be wrong).

What he did get 'brake'-wise was a watered down version of a brake on benefits instead.

He wanted:
EU migrants to have lived & worked in UK for minimum 4 yrs before able to claim tax credits & child benefit.
Also, not to pay CB for children who live outwith UK.

He got:
A brake on benefits which would be under control of the commission; with a 'tapering increase' of benefits from the beginning of the 4 year period, up to full benefit access at the end of the 4 yr period.
Wrt CB for children living outwith the UK, he was told that UK was still responsible for paying it, but at the rate of the country the child lives in, rather than the UK rate.

Sigh.

Are we really comparing Hungary to the USA? Its pure Trump Appeasing via the Straw Man.

Orban has a problem. Its called the EU. No I don't like Orban. What happens in Hungary if Trump gets his wish of destroying the EU? Yes the EU does not go far enough and not critical enough, but its still a moderator. How much further would Orban be going with out it?

I do have a problem with people criticising people for complaining about Trump when they don't also criticise Hungary. Its apples and pears. Especially when the people being attacked have a track record of defending the EU as a force that does promote the principles of religious freedom and equality and that's one of the reasons they don't want to leave nor see its breakdown.

The EU is not perfect. It should do more. Its been said many, many times that it fails on some counts. As has the US (and the UK as a sovereign nation) when it comes being the champions of democracy and liberalism.

But the world without the USA being the land of the free and without the EU as a promoter of liberalism is a much darker, dangerous and cruel than the one we have all grown up in.

All I see this criticism as a means by which to defend Trump and a way of fascists to try and undermine liberalism to further their own agenda and/or a real taking for granted of our liberal values, peace and security for the last 70 years.

The attempts to try and paint liberalism as fascism and fascism as liberalism are pure nonsense and propaganda. Too many people do not understand what the words mean nor the principles and tenets behind them. Do we need to break things down into social and economic liberalism? Do we need to examine the relationship between economic liberalism and Nazism? Do we need to talk about authoritarianism and social liberalism? Do we need to talk about the terms Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism?

Just why is it that people trip over themselves to avoid the definition of fascism?

Well lets just start here:
The term "National Socialism" arose out of attempts to create a nationalist redefinition of "socialism", as an alternative to both international socialism and free market capitalism. Nazism rejected the Marxist concept of class struggle, opposed cosmopolitan internationalism, and sought to convince all parts of a new German society to subordinate their personal interests to the "common good" and to accept the priority of political interests in economic organisation

And once again I am going to point to this list of propaganda techniques and ask people how many they have spotted being used extensively recently. And by whom:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_techniques

It is very worrying.

If people want to talk about this, then lets talk about it properly rather than all this utter nonsense about Trump v Orban.

So, no.
He didn't get a 'brake' deal at all on migrants, only on benefits.

Also, I was referring to Cecile's comment that 'at least Hungary are trying to change the rules from within, rather than just leaving the club' - I was pointing out to her that we had tried to change from within, but got nowhere, hence the Leave vote.

I was not in any way conflating Hungary with UK.

we had tried to change from within

Not really - always whining for special deals is not the same as genuinely committing to the organisation. Had we done so, we might have been more successful.

But what you actually wrote SemiPermanent, was "You are aware that Merkel told Cameron that an 'emergency brake' type of set up was completely off the table, aren't you?".

To me, what he actually negotiated sounds suspiciously like an 'emergency brake' type of set up, so clearly it wasn't 'completely off the table'.

None of which has anything whatsoever to to with the distribution of refugees to Hungary under a quota system (which the UK isn't subject to), which is what was being discussed.

We got a limited deal on a very specific issue, but have won a lot of other concessions over the period of membership. What to you think about the concession on clearing of Euro-based securities in London?

Oh Tucker.

Splitting hairs & semantics.

I've been quite clear over subsequent posts to try and atone for not being specific enough in those few lines.

Short of throwing myself prostrate I am unsure of what else I could do.

It's a perfect illustration of where the uk fail at negotiation.

We want x
well we don't want to give you x let's go for the middle ground of y
That's just not good enough

For clarity:

He WANTED an emergency brake on numbers of migrants.

He was told - no. You will never get it. Don't even ask.

He ASKED for a 4 yr time period, controlled by UK, whereby no benefits for migrants.

He GOT a watered down deal - controlled by commission, increasing from zero benefits to full benefits over the course of the 4 yrs.

He ASKED for no paying by UK of child benefit for children who don't live in the UK.

He GOT - still pay for children that don't live in UK, but you can pay them at the rate of the country they live in.

You assume that what Cameron asked for was what he wanted or expected to get? Is that how negotiations usually work then?

The only true contrast between Hungary trying to change the EU system from within and the UK's situation is that the UK has always been particularly successful at changing the EU system to suit our needs.

Us having an opt-out from the proposed refugee sharing system and negotiating an 'emergency brake' type of set up are perfect examples of us changing the system from within.

From RTB post: Nazism rejected the Marxist concept of class struggle, opposed cosmopolitan internationalism, and sought to convince all parts of a new German society to subordinate their personal interests to the "common good" and to accept the priority of political interests in economic organisation
Hmm

Or are leavereps being paid by the word now?

Can I ask who this is aimed at please?

Shamelessly joining for just one point. Woman1234, the kafuffle about trans v women is because of the behaviour of trans activists, who want transgender to equal sex. This means that rather than, as used to be the case, transwomen use female only facilities on the basis of courtesy, transwomen are legally entitled to access showers, wards, DV or homeless shelters, prisons etc, regardless of their conduct, bodies or motivation.

If trans activists and the many who blindly support them get their way then very soon there will be no such thing as sex discrimination. Because sex as a protection is going to be replaced by gender. You will get women with penises, women who are fathers, and these will, by law, be equivalent. There's already been a case in the US where a woman failed to get breastfeeding recognized as a women's issue because. "men can breastfeed too."

Women's sports and any opportunities or scholarships created to promote sex equality? All now open to men.

The old school transsexuals got along with women because they tried very hard to behave like women. The new breed come over like MRAs.

Then of course there's the issue of transkids
, which is an epic scandal in the making.

That's a brief rundown. If we, as women, lose the power to name ourselves there can be no women's issues, nor moves for sex equality.

Gender does not equal biology. I and many others think the rise of transactivism is the biggest threat to women's rights in decades.

good link to my post too -I am interested to know how posters refer to female genitals and if they identify with this scenario - "yes dear I know that boy said he'll kick you in the pansy if you don't get off the swing but you know that in our house it is called a vulva".

This is what I don't understand about Leavers' arguments regarding how successful our negotiations will be when leaving the EU: otoh, the EU is so intransigent that it wasn't even worth Cameron trying to negotiate small concessions, they are gits and they will never agree to anything the UK wants, they just gang up against us. Otoh, the EU will give the UK whatever we ask now that we are leaving and it's going to be fantastic [puzzled].

(And for clarity, I know not all Leavers believe this but, worryingly, it was a view that was promoted by many within the Leave campaign based on German cars/prosecco/camembert etc and seems to be something that the current government has taken up since the referendum.)

Lets stay on topic please, EU ref thread

prawn of the patriarchy thanks I get that. I see how insidious that particular ruse is (pitting alleged trans against women, it's good old fashioned sexism in my book) and observe that it's used in the Freedom Association literature for unloved tories including Davies, Mogg, Gove.
But I'm not going to stop because some one moans. It's divide and rule, I'm not playing that.

We're all on the same team.

And I see considerable success in the divide and rule crew, who moaned about the women's marches, and are moaning about today's ones because they're about Trump and not any number of the crocks of shite running dictatorships outside the EU. I moaned about this march too because if I want to hear shouty anti semitic white men I can read Breitbart rather than hear the SWP. But it doesn't mean one can't unite and fight rather than giving in to in -fighting; then we'd be like the tory party and who would want that?

To return to the issue of agreements on EU and UK migrants' rights, I haven't been able to find anything in the time I've spent looking which explicitly states that individual states can negotiate their own agreements with the UK for post Brexit. But that doesn't mean it isn't the case. As evidence, the EU does not control the UK's non-EU immigration policy or, eg Germany's. So if the EU doesn't currently control the UK's immigration rules with say Australia, why will it control Spain's with the EU, post Brexit?

I believe the EU wide reciprocal agreement on existing migrants' rights was more of a fast-track idea to stop the uncertainty and as Tucker said, to avoid any countries falling through the net.

As we know, TM sought such an agreement early on. Most EU countries were in favour, a few against, and Merkel very much against. So the reason the uncertainty still exists can be fairly clearly placed where it should be.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/donald-tusk-accuses-british-voters-backed-brexit-creating-anxiety/

If anyone thinks this interpretation is wrong, and individual states cannot negotiate their own post-Brexit agreements with the UK, please could they provide me with a link or two?

Last line of first para should read

^So if the EU doesn't currently control the UK's immigration rules with say Australia, why will it control Spain's with the UK, post Brexit?

Trump worries me far more than any other fascist leader, because he leads the world's only superpower - and because he may be insane
Completely agree BCF.
And the good grace with which Greece, on its knees, in absolute penury, housing as you said, Cecile refugees* let's just call them all humans, eh, in stadia, has tolerated unfair terms to the EU , just to keep a lid on the Golden Dawn is testimony to their living memory and intelligence about military dictatorships.
Also agree with you ron earlier about China being the adult in the room. Isn't China called the middle of the world, from within China? We could do with a bit of intelligence from a culture which was writing on paper while British people hadn't even managed to invent cups They have a 6000 year head start on us. And it shows, they are at least decorous and literate.

Woman, I do think refugees are humans but they are particularly desperate humans who should have a special status under international law and be provided for, surely?

Semi, for my part I was extremely ashamed when Cameron asked for that, especially in the circumstances.