Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

The only difference is that they are challenging the EU's policies internally rather than opting out of the entire thing.

You are aware that Merkel told Cameron that an 'emergency brake' type of set up was completely off the table, aren't you?

Also why the concern with Orban only? Why not President Duda too for example. He's hardly a card carrying centre rightist.

"We have pursued a bold, positive, pro-business agenda, exempting smaller businesses from red tape, promoting free trade, and pushing to extend the single market to new sectors, like digital"

You have been worked up into a frenzy not by the issue but by the fact that you have been led to percieve that liberals don't care about it.

^ Nope I was just interested in the response here.

Most liberals I know voted Leave actually!

Cross post. Appeared to have veered onto others now at least.

Why, Debbie? I'm interested to know their reasons - and yours, actually, if you would tell us? Thanks.

Hungarians vote to reject migrant quotas, but turnout too low to be valid
www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-hungary-referendum-idUSKCN1213Q3

Obviously Orban claimed this was a victory for him.

And yes, in general I do dismiss the views expressed in the Daily Mail because it's articles are generally badly researched and written, and aimed at exploiting negative emotions in order to sell more copies and place power in the hands of the proprietor, it was Paul Dacre that May first lunched with...... A lot of the reasoning behind her rightward lurch is to keep those important opinion formers The Sun and Mail onside.

Personally I never swallow a media story whole, I prefer to research an issue I need a number of different sources and to evaluate the source and their agenda as well as the content. These days our children are taught that skill for GCSE....

Theresa not appeaser, eh?!

Extract from Daniel Hannans article in the Telegraph:

A group of European ambassadors from the Nordic and Baltic states wrote to Theresa May yesterday thanking her for securing President Trump’s commitment to the alliance. As with many thank-you letters, there was an implicit hope of further favours

Damn autocorrect "research an issue in a number of different sources"

"Cages are rattled"

Hell yes.

Did the Brexit Arms shut down or something? I am missing the usual intelligent discussions.

Or are leavereps being paid by the word now?

"As with many thank-you letters, there was an implicit hope of further favours" Aah, the English superiority complex. You've got to love it.

Debbie - your obsession with May getting Trump to commit to NATO is now getting tiresome. If I recall correctly, she put the words into his mouth. It didn't come from him. Watch to see what he does - especially if Putin moves on former Communist states.

Debbie - your obsession with May getting Trump to commit to NATO is now getting tiresome.

I must have missed the post where Debbie mentioned this.

Please could you point me to it?
Many thanks.

Why exactly Debbie did you feel the need to find out the response here? What did you expect? Because if it was based on the general tone of discussions here then you would have expected it to be an issue that we would condemn on a scale in perspective to the scale of the problem, end of. Of course if instead you came her because that Daily Mail article had led you to expect we would all hypocritically dismiss just because it happened in Europe then you must be quite disappointed 😔

OTOH I would not take Daniel Hannan's words at face value without a source.
OTOH Of course Baltic and Nordic states are fretting about the US abandoning them to their fate and Russia. They have no choice, but to be grateful for any crumbs of commitment, even an absent-minded nod.

Trump has asserted he will reinforce the travel ban. If nothing else it should keep him busy for a while

Semi -12:55 on this thread. On the previous thread also, but probably a mis-attribution on my behalf, because you are rather keen on pressing the point about NATO too, I see.

There is nothing wrong with that, just I don't have your faith in Trump to do what Theresa May told him he must do.

There is a huge difference in the potential threat to the world from a fascist Hungary and a fascist USA
Noone worries that Hungary can launch 7,000 nukes if its leader has a tantrum

Trump worries me far more than any other fascist leader, because he leads the world's only superpower - and because he may be insane

Hungary is a minnow.
If any Hungarian leader tries ordering the UK to do something, it'll just give May a giggle

May has to suck up to Trump
The UK post-WW2 has always had to back down when the US orders.

e.g. the humiliation in Suez
It was continully subject to constraints on combatting terrorism in the NI Troubles by US pressure in response to the powerful Irish Amercian Lobby.
The US continually interfered and forced the UK to make concessions when the elected UK government didn't want to.
Hungary could never do this.

Even Mrs T had to give in when the US really demanded it.
she narrowly escaped ruin by the US at the start of the Falklands conflict:
The US placed its strategic interests in Latin Amercia first and ordered her to accept a humiliating deal that would have brouht down the UK government.
Fortunately, Galtieri wanted 100 % victory instead of 80%, so he refused the deal and Mrs T was allowed by the US to go to war.

Hungary could not have ordered MrsT to do anything

Trump can - and probably will - withdraw suppirt for NATO anytime the other members don't do what he wants
His "promise" was unenthusiastic and certainly not binding.
He doesn't obey the normal rules or have the normal loyalties - his bestie is Putin, not May.

More like Chamberlain waving his "Peace in our time" piece of paper - except May didn't even have some paper to wave

That could mean every country stumping up 2% GDP - regardless of what their voters want

Maybe supporting the US in the wars that Bannon said are inevitable in the next 5-10 years: with China and with ME countries (oil)

That could mean supporting the US in air strikes when the other NATO members object to high collateral damage - too many dead civilians

Or just making trade concessions to the US that would cost too many jobs in other NATO countries

SemiPermanent "You are aware that Merkel told Cameron that an 'emergency brake' type of set up was completely off the table, aren't you?"

Do you have a source for this? It's just that I was under the impression that one of the concessions that Cameron had negotiated was just such an 'emergency brake' mechanism would be allowed in the event that we voted Remain.

Also I note that you made that point in connection with the issue of Muslim refugees being settled across Europe under a quota system. That scheme has no relevance at all to Britain, Cameron or the "emergency brake" - Britain was (and still is) already exempt from taking part in any such scheme against its wishes.

Tucker, it was in the book:

All Out War: The Full Story of How Brexit Sank Britain's Political Class
by Tim Shipman.

It's a really good read actually, Tucker - for both 'sides' of the ref divide & also across the political spectrum.

So how do you reconcile that with the fact that Cameron did actually negotiate an 'emergency brake'?

And what relevance has that to what was actually being discussed - Hungary's reluctance to accept a quota of refugees under a system that the UK isn't part of?

There are long after-effects when countries suffer decades under dictatorship
Greece, Portugal and Spain were under fascist dictatorship
Eastern European countries were crippled in their social and economic development by beimg dominated by the USSR

Fascism is NOT in the DNA of any race, anymore than communism, mugging or raoe is.
The political & social culture can be damaged & stunted by dictatorship or long occupation
Many African and Middle East countries were damaged by being part of the British Empire

btw, the EU wanted to wait for EE countries to develop further before allowing to become members
However, the UK, pressed by the US, urged the EU to accept them asap. Waiting would have been better.

The EU can enforce Article 7 to suspend some privileges of countries which go too far outside the bounds of acceptable behaviour.

However, there is a wide band of what is acceptable before getting that far
e,g. the EU can't suspend countries for not allowing abortion, or equal marriage
It can't suspend countries with far right demagogues like Le Pen, or Farage stirring up hatred

Austria and Hungary have both been warned by the EU about actions or announcements by their governments in the past.
EU action may indeed be necessary against some countries soon, but Trump is likely to be furious if any of his fascist chums are suspended.

Unfortunately, noone can suspend the US from anything - the difference again beween a superpower and a minnow