The Brexit Arms - All welcome. :-) :-)

[surferjet]

So .....how are we all this evening?

I asked this on the other thread but no-one was able to tell me what would happen if we served A50 but didn't want two years? Would we just be out? Say the initial response from EU was so final, so off-putting that it seemed pointless to hang around for two years imploring()? If instant withdrawal is possible - even if not at all lukely - that is surely loaded with risk?

*likely

Love the pic of Brexitpup.
The Guardian is the biggest of all remoaners. I think Redtoothbrush works for them. And the BBC is becoming even more Remain than usual.
Is it to early for a gin?

The guardian has become a bit like a leftwing daily mash but without them realising it.
Who takes it seriously anymore?

I know. But I can't stop myself reading it, in a kind of horrid fascination kind of way. Even Polly Toynbee and Nick Cohen. Why????

on the change.org site they have comments from people who signed the let trump come to uk petition. there's a long post from a sess lee 4rs ago which says it all really

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters - populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave.

That was a quote from the article. New data shows you are more likely to have voted leave if you have lower educational attainments, or are older (though "older" is not defined). Ethnicity also had an effect on the voting pattern.
There are some interesting graphs included

Minor Fart is an anagram of Tim Farron.
Just sayin'

"older" looks to be 40+ from the graph so I would see that as those who have enough adult life experience to have thought it through or alternatively "not a student worried about a gap year or Erasmus scholarship".

Reading the narrative "education" looks like a proxy for the "haves" versus the "have nots".

Looks like quite a lot of confirmation bias in the way the data has been split and analysed although some interesting things also eg the counterintuitive voting on ethnicity echoes the Leicester result.

Older = has more experience of living within the EU so know what they're talking about in terms of what they want & don't want.

Less well educated = more likely to struggle to find work due to increase in immigration/ freedom of movement ( manual jobs going to Eastern Europeans etc )

Fair enough. They're voting for their future.

Very good interview with Robert Harris in tonight's evening standard - worth a read.
www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/author-robert-harris-on-donald-trump-theresa-may-and-the-new-superelite-a3459361.html

So the less well educated voted leave?
I thought that was well known? I've certainly
seen several graphs since the vote that show that. And also areas with the least immigration.
I know at least 2 people who are functionally illiterate who voted leave

What does it prove?
I also know some very well educated (far more well educated people than me) who voted leave.

What does it prove?
I think it's far more relevant that the older generation voted leave in large numbers
Younger people far less
That's the real issue here I think - the generational divide

I think the correlation between education and voting in the referendum has been shown in every study done since the Ashcroft Poll which came out within days.

Sadly some people still seem to want to spin the demographics of the vote in a kind of "more people who are less educated/older/whatever voted leave which just shows it was the wrong choice" (the logic of which I fail to follow, but there you go).

No it doesn't. It shows that different demographics have different economic and other interests, life experience and quite possibly values which affected how they chose to vote.

Is there any data that might indicate generational division arising from the vote to take us into the common market I wonder?

Every dog has its day is a good OLD adage

Anecdotally the older people I know voted remain
Most of my family didn't even vote
I would rather people vote - and be enfranchised - whatever their vote - than this awful apathy we seem to me seeing now.
There is an assumption now that all politicians lie...I believe this is why trump got in and why leave won
So many who voted leave and for trump either voted as a protest or didn't really believe they meant what they said whilst campaigning
Trump is frankly terrifying and Teresa the appeaser seems to think she has a mandate for a hard brexit
With 52% of the vote?
🤔

Bored...I'm more interested by the fact that the U.K. ended up going cap in hand to the then EEC....
We will be in the same position in 5-10
Years I predict

Doubt the EU will last that long myself.

My view - not one leavers will agree with! - is that the EU is so much more than a legal/economic/trade entity for its European continent members.
I can't verbalise this very well so bear with me!
After WW2 continental Europe was not only decimated and without infrastructure (unlike the US and most of the UK) but then carved up between east and west at the yalta and potsdam conferences.
The EU for these countries is a social and economic bloc which strengthens its members and which has huge historical and geo political significance that means far more to the member states than we can understand.
I hope that makes sense!
That's my feeling anyway

bored I've been thinking about your question about not waiting two years after A50 to leave if negotiations are going nowhere.

I don't think that would happen because it would be politically too difficult. The EU isn't a fixed entity and with the various elections in rEU, the people the UK is negotiating with are likely to change, so I just think it would be v difficult for the government to say, well we're giving up negotiating and leaving anyway. But I could be talking cobblers.

Thanks wrong, I just havent read anything that suggests it couldn't happen and I keep thinking that, were we minded to go WTO anyway, why waste two years especially if they were going to be anything like the past eight months. EU couldn't prevent it as once the A50 served we have notified of our departure. The two years is only there to negotiate...but if negotiation came there none, just grief at home and punishment abroad, what would be the point of prolonging things?

Badders, fwiw I agree with you about the other EU members seeing it as much more than a trading etc bloc.
UK never really jumped on board with all that, and I honestly believe that the ref was our one chance to get out, because the inevitable could not be side stepped for ever - we would have been subsumed into the 'ever closer union' of the superstate.

I do think that the EU will be better off without UK being a member, and vice versa.

That's where we diverge semi 😊
I think the UK has long been quite xenophobic - it's not a new thing but it's been whipped up by some to quite worrying proportions.
We are now at the mercy of people like trump and erdogan and really scares me.
I feel we will be weaker without being part of the EU bloc
The EU is not perfect - an international form
of govt made up of nation states? - but imo better than the alternative
Not that we know that is of course 🤔

Of course one could make the same criticism about the UN...
Trump wants America to leave the UN?
Like Germany left the League of Nations...
Worrying