Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
woman12345 · 20/01/2017 19:50

And Trump is clearly mentally ill. New Yorker contributor on Channel 4 news just re stated that. Section 25 of the constitution has the facility to deal with that, meanwhile............

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 19:50

Re your last post Red - an example now of this is the way Erdogan is going in Turkey. I would say that is fast heading towards Dictatorship.

DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 20/01/2017 19:50

Well it depends how much you think Immigration was a driver in the Brexit vote.

We know Blair made a catastrophic mistake by lifting FOM workers rights in 2004.

SemiPermanent · 20/01/2017 19:51

Oh my....did he say factories were shutted? Shock

Motheroffour No, he said 'shuttered':

"Factories were shuttered up"

woman12345 · 20/01/2017 19:52

New statesman article on kleptocracy:
www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/01/donald-trump-ushers-new-era-kakistocracy-government-worst-people

DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 20/01/2017 19:53

Grin that old selective hearing again, hearing whats not there, reading whats not there....

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 19:54

Anne Applebaum ‏*@anneapplebaum*
that speech set up the scapegoats in advance. when Trump fails, he will blame 1.establishment 2.foreigners 3. 'crime gangs and drugs'

Time will tell whether it will happen and he will become a dictator but there is a pattern and so far Trump is making it look like a bit of a check list one by one.

That's why people are 'hysterical'.

OP posts:
woman12345 · 20/01/2017 19:56

And he's urging le Pen on.
Watch out for some sneaky or overt military whoopsies in the Baltic coming soon.
And the Republicans could have prevented this.

SemiPermanent · 20/01/2017 19:56

Lots of us think Blair was a liar - but he didn't create the Brexit mess.

He did.

He created the situation by not applying phased controls to migration from former eastern bloc members.

He promised a referendum on the EU constitution, then backtracked (and palmed off to GB who decided not to bother as it was downgraded to 'treaty' - "and no ref was promised for treaty" (semantics).

DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 20/01/2017 20:00

I must say though have had a laugh at Trump saying "Shutted" it certainly fits in with the toddler view of his stature. Grin.

TheElementsSong · 20/01/2017 20:00

Anyway I don't understand why Leavers seem to be so terribly concerned about the thoughts and online discussions of Remainers.

Shouldn't we all have absolute faith in our illustrious Prime Minister as she guides us on the True Path, and who has assured us that everyone in the UK has come together with a single united voice and wide-open eyes in support of Brexit? And in view of this incontrovertible fact, Leavers keep reminding us, the tiny handful who are still Remoaning are just a few hysterical, probably mentally-ill, Remaniac troublemakers - plus maybe two ounces of chopped liver.

Meanwhile, we are also assured that Brexit has had and will have literally no downsides whether social, economic or political. No increase in racist attacks, no job losses, no decrease in tax revenue, no increase in cost of living, no attacks on the independence of our judiciary or the sovereignty of parliament. Negative outcomes are simply impossible.

How, then, can 17 Remainers and two ounces of chopped liver on a couple of Internet talk boards possibly have the ability to Will the great Brexit project to Failure?

As a traitorous Remainer, I probably deserve to be thrown in the tower, but seems like some Leavers haven't fully embraced the True Path either. If I were Mrs May, I'd be intoning "I FIND YOUR LACK OF FAITH DISTURBING." Grin

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 20:01

Well it depends how much you think Immigration was a driver in the Brexit vote.

Well, now.....A lot of Leavers assured us that they weren't voting about immigration. I think it is fair to say that it is driving Mrs May's actions. There are some areas with areas of high immigration and an infrastructure which may be struggling to cope, but she could put money into these if she chose. So far she's chosen not to.

The stories about you can't get a GP appointment because of immigration is hogwash. In the Witney by election the closure of a GP surgery was an issue - nothing to do with immigration and all to do with two GPs retiring and not being able to find replacements. My own surgery may also go the same way. They have already written to us to say that it might happen.

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 20:32

If you don't laugh, you just cry.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/president-donald-trumps-inauguration-speech_uk_588247aee4b0f94bb303d2cc?
27 Things Wrong With President Donald Trump’s Inauguration Speech

www.buzzfeed.com/matthewchampion/make-subtitles-great-again?utm_term=.csE1L7JBk#.ooP2jXOJR
The BBC cock up subtitles for the Inauguration

This is my fav. I LOVE this:
theslot.jezebel.com/donald-trump-plagiarized-bane-in-his-inaugural-speech-1791429625?utm_campaign=socialfow_jezebel_twitter&utm_source=jezebel_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
Donald Trump Plagiarized Bane in His Inaugural Speech

Yes that Bane. He sounds like baddie in Batman movie The Dark Knight Rises.

Yeah. We watch and wait to see if he delivers on his promises.

So far he has removed climate change, health care, civil rights and LGBT rights sections from the whitehouse.gov website, made it harder for poor people to get a mortgage by raising a particular type of interest rate and fired off a bunch of tweets. Then he's gone for a posh lunch, whilst the plebs stand outside in the rain waiting for him (parade is already 30mins late). We also have an announcement of leaving the TTP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and threatens to leave NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) unless it is renegotiated. Plus his America First motto, is one in the eye for the US's allies, particularly smaller democratic ones with authoritarian neighbours who rely on the US protection.

Oh and after protestors have been stupid and been violent smashing up shops and limos, the riot police have got all heavy handed with suggestions all ready that they are being heavy handed.

The President is apparently still under investigation, subject to a number of legal cases and there is a complaint that has been filed over his ownership of his Washington DC hotel.

He's been President what 3 and a half hours?

Can't wait until Monday.

Meanwhile in the UK:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-38692692?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
Cheshire East schools 'could face four-day week'

George. That's your patch. Oh yeah, you just announced you were going part time today.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 20:37

Otto English ‏*@Otto*_English
Rupert Myers making convincing case that Trumpism is a sort of modern Ludditism - a reaction to techno progress
www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/donald-trump-inauguration-speech

Also see Theresa May. And her comments at Davos.

OP posts:
woman12345 · 20/01/2017 20:47

If there are doubts that this is not a type of economic policy tried before:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autarky
Delicious bunch of regimes, who like it including Albania, Burma, Mussolini's Italy, and obviously the housepainter.

woman12345 · 20/01/2017 20:50

Obama: " this is not a full stop, it's a comma." of the coming presidential term. Halo

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 20:53

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/20/exclusive-labour-set-lose-copeland-by-election-partys-canvass/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Exclusive: Labour set to lose Copeland by-election, party’s own canvass returns reveal

The Telegraph understands internal analysis of more than 10,000 conversations with voters in Copeland, the Cumbrian constituency, shows Labour’s support down by a third since 2015.

A senior Labour source said Mr Corbyn’s “incompetence” as a political leader is coming up repeatedly on the doorstep when discussing voting intention.

and

Party sources involved in the campaign now expect the Tories to take win the seat by thousands of votes, with the Labour vote share possibly slumping to the low thirties.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 21:02

RedToothBrush Wed 21-Dec-16 15:21:50
My prediction for result each party around these percentages: Con 40% Lab 33% UKIP 15% LD 7% GREEN 3%

Well I'm looking good for this then.

OP posts:
woman12345 · 20/01/2017 21:08
Shock Is there a teeny weeny chance for lib dems? Corbyn is so toxic now. Evette Cooper would have given May a run for her money but misogyny is at such peak levels now, it's impossible for women to get elected. Even if they pushed him out after a defeat, the big beasts like Benn and Starmer are Chamberlaining to leave. Did you see the west midlands campaign with 'taking back control' as its slogan? Faisal Islam Retweeted Siôn Simon Meanwhile in Wolverhampton, Labour's WM Mayoral candidate @sionsimon is "taking back control" of the West Midlands for "England's regions"

So a shoe in for Nuttalls and more media coverage for them. Get those bags packed.

woman12345 · 20/01/2017 21:09

cross post, I can see lib dems don't stand a chance.

SwedishEdith · 20/01/2017 21:15

This made me laugh.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/19/andrea-leadsom-commons-defra-display-things-could-be-even-worse

"Be thankful for small mercies. In a not-so-parallel universe, it would have been Andrea Leadsom speaking to world leaders at Davos. Just imagine. “As a mother, we need a globalisation that works for everyone. As a mother, we want an EU that works for everyone. Just not for us.”"

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 21:16

In Copeland they have just announced a candidate who is not a Corbynista, and that could change things.

Possibly a good local candidate could see off Nuttall in Stoke.

woman12345 · 20/01/2017 21:19

To take the long view of the rise of the extreme right, it has been on the way ever since the collapse of the USSR. It's a movement that has never completely disappeared, and there's been no apparent way to accommodate it in a moderate democratic culture, you just can't. Look at Farage yowling at multi lingual MEPs.

The left has lost its confidence and its way, and I suppose that is inevitable if there's no clear reference point of its success in action.

Trouble with Trump is, he's not just a fascist he's ill, and that makes it all the more worrisome.

But I am going to choose to try to hang on to Obama's 'comma' idea, and understand that it's a phase.

The irony is, this is all a victory for the real fascists in ISIS. Without their mayhem, cruelty and the refugee crisis(albeit one which the US and we have done more or less nothing to help with), we would have been moaning along as we had for a while longer.

woman12345 · 20/01/2017 21:20

Swedish Grin

WrongTrouser · 20/01/2017 21:20

I don't understand your "dictator job description" comment Peregrina. It's about using words in a meaningful way.

"Definition of dictator
a : a person granted absolute emergency power; especially, history : one appointed by the senate of ancient Rome
b : one holding complete autocratic control : a person with unlimited governmental power
c : one ruling in an absolute and often oppressive way "

That's why people are 'hysterical'

I don't think it helps though. I am very worried about the way the UK, the rest of Europe and the USA are heading politically, but I really don't think you can defend democracy by trying to undermine a political election (which is what I believe calling Trump a dictator, when, whatever your feelings about him, he was democratically elected and has not, unless I am very misinformed, indicated that he will not stand down (or stand for re-election) at the end of his term).

You can't defend democracy by undermining democracy. There are ways of protesting and trying to protect the laws and social mores you value without trying to undermine a democratic choice (which calling DT a dictator is doing).

Swipe left for the next trending thread