Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

[RedToothBrush]

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

democratic election not political election

I don't understand your "dictator job description" comment Peregrina.
It was meant to be a joke. I am sorry, I didn't realise that jokes were no longer allowed.

Barack Obama ‏*@BarackObama* 5m
Hi everybody! Back to the original handle. Is this thing still on? Michelle and I are off on a quick vacation, then we’ll get back to work.

woman12345, I don't think UKIP are necessarily a shoe in for Stoke. I think they would have been more of a threat if they hadn't put Nuttall up for it. Disgruntled previous Labour voters are more likely to come out and not defect to LDs with Nuttall standing. Its interesting to see the betting for this. Money on the LDs dropped the moment Nuttall was unofficially rumoured. Money on UKIP went up a little but they have not closed the gap on Labour significantly.

Even with a big hit on their voters I can't see Labour getting less than 29% (They got 39% in 2015 - getting 29% would be similar to Copeland with a shift / lack of turnout down about a third). But in that model most of these are going to LD rather than UKIP and I think these particular voters will stick with Labour for now under the circumstances. The moving vote is more the remain part of the constituency rather than the Leave vote which sounds counter intuitive given the size of the Leave vote there. I think the Conservative vote is pretty stable around the 24% mark and won't change too much which splits the leave vote (a slight increase on the 2015 GE). UKIP got 22% previously. I therefore find it hard to work out where they would get the extra 8% they need to win, unless they can get people who don't normally vote to turnout. That's not beyond the realms of possibility given turnout was just 49.9% at the GE. A harsh ruling by the SC on Tuesday might be a good motivator but that requires voters to be more politically engaged than history in Stoke Central would seem to suggest.

I could be miles out I admit and this is pure speculation, but I think UKIP will have to work harder than you think to sneak it.

I think UKIP may well have to work harder in Stoke and as I have already said, if they can link them with BNP then, Stoke having had a sample of that, would be expected to say no thanks. There is probably a cussed streak in the Stoke voters so who knows. I suspect they won't do as they are told the ought to do.

Peregrina sorry, sense of humor failure on my part

Thanks both! Here's hoping. Wonder how that performance this afternoon will play out to the Euro (including us!) audience with his fellow travellers and the rest of us.
On this rather oddly written White House doc, "good-paying jobs" there's no mention of any jam contracts.
www.whitehouse.gov/trade-deals-working-all-americans

Given that Trump has only just been inaugurated it's too early to say whether or not he's a dictator.

Hitler didn't seize power the day he was elected.

Thus far Trump has given top jobs to his family and mates. Not a good sign. We'll have to see how far he goes.

However, by the time one knows for certain, it's generally too late.

You can't defend democracy by undermining democracy.

I think this is where Obama is at. He has made a point of it. But his turn of phrase and the way he has framed this also points to a worry.

The problem with Trump is there is a very serious concern about how far he has gone in ensuring he does not have conflicts of interest. It is highly likely he has not done enough, but the law as it stands is not necessarily explicit enough. Its a loophole.

There are also these unresolved issues with his Russian ties and those of his Cabinet picks and close associates. Russia might not have influenced the election but their associations with senior Russians raises questions and to date rather than give a satisfactory explaination Trump has denied these connections. There is a video of him saying he has met Putin from a couple of years ago, yet he has said he has not recently.

And his unwillingness to disclose his tax returns. (Again he is under no obligation to do this).

And his treatment of the press, is definitely an undermining of democratic accountability.

And then there's his open and shameless lying.

The picture as a whole means there is a big cloud hanging over him. Its difficult to avoid.

I personally think he will be damn near impossible to impeach though. For a number of reasons. Not least because it will require Republicans to rebel. If on the whole he is doing things they like, even if they have reservations about democracy they will do bugger all.

I expect he will use the power of the executive to a point that its going to very quickly set off alarm bells and provoke a reaction. The Democrats will go nuts but will be powerless.

Trump does not do compromise, he runs his business by executive. This is how he will attempt to run the country. He will not want to be answerable to Congress. Congress will have a very hard time to control his use of the executive.

RE: Stoke (Again).

Don't underestimate the tribal effect. Stokies will want someone local. Its one of their repeated moans about Labour candidates. Sure Paul Nuttall is a northerner and not middle class but he is still not local. He has seen an opportunity of a UKIP win so he's standing there. He was going to stand in Leigh. Its not because he has a real interest in Stoke itself. He might be seen as more of an opportunist than you think, especially if Labour stand a good local candidate (who is not a Corbynista).

Also Labour voters who are seriously considering going Lib Dem are going to be the most politically engaged and therefore the most likely to turn out. They are also the ones most fearful of a UKIP win. Thus they will turnout but they will stick with Labour. Similarly even LD voters might turn out for Labour.

Paul Nuttall is a divisive figure. Not perhaps as much as Farage, but those who hate Farage see him as not much more than a Farage substitute and puppet. He has certainly not established himself in his own right yet. That will affect voter behaviour. It will trouble Remain voters more than a local UKIP candidate would have.

Trump and Plato:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cnzo9qXLFUo

There really is nothing new under the sun.

I don't think Brexit will be the main issue in Stoke (although I can't see how it's going to help them), so I think the Remain voters might well pinch their noses and vote Labour. I think the Telegraph may be crowing too soon about Tory victories in both by elections.

Just watching sky news. Theresa May might be flying to meet Trump on Thursday....first foreign leader to go to Washington ! Traditionally it is the Canadians first because they are immediate neighbours.

This guy has no dignity, so crass

Will May be kissing his hand or just crawling up his arse?

Well if its the latter at least we won't have to hear from her for a while

There's no room left up his arse, Piers, Nigel, Gove and Banks have taken residence there.

Kaija makes sense, thanks. So many in the east cling to Putin out of nostalgia for a strong king and missing the security that the USSR state brought.
Nuttalls seems a bit of Derek Hattony? Could be a plus or a minus, in Stoke?

Plan G.

I don't know the history and I really don't know how check this one, but yeah, no reason to doubt either.

www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/corbyn-says-scotland-will-leave-the-single-market-with-the-r?utm_term=.won15gLar#.ciDxZ8Ezp
Corbyn Says Scotland Will Leave The Single Market With The Rest Of TheUK
The Labour leader rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s suggestion of a special Scottish deal, saying it must be “a UK decision”.

Any Scots care to comment? I feel that I will probably do this gem a disservice.

This guy has no dignity, so crass did you see that he fired the 89 year old who has been master of ceremonies for the last 60 years at inaugurations, so said 89year old got a gig straight away at the Women's March doing the same thing to much bigger numbers.

Theresa May to emphasise value of EU and Nato to Trump

Hmmm.

Hmm - The Labour party as represented by Corbyn do seem to be acting stupidly. Their job is to Oppose. The Tories are in Government, so oppose them, not get digs in at Tim Farron or the SNP.

I can't see his comments going down well in Scotland. I think if sufficient Scots want Independence they will find a way to make it work. This is not the same as making Brexit work in England, because May has failed to convince Remainers. Well, roll on the time when May commits political suicide as Cameron did.

Swedish: I wonder why she would do this?
Perhaps if there is no longer NATO, then full speed ahead for a European army!😄
De Gaulle did not care too much for NATO either! It seems that the spectres of the post WW2 are coming back to hunt us!!

5:45pm In Downing Street.

Ring Ring. Ring Ring

Aide: Hello this No 10. Who is speaking please.
Merkel: Hi this is Frau Merkel, I'd like to speech with the Prime Minister please.
Aide: Yes of course, right away.

Much muttering and shuffling of paper

May: Good evening Chancellor. What can I do for you this evening?
Merkel: Have you seen what he said? Well HAVE YOU?
May: Erm yes. Its ...
Merkel: (Interrupts) So what the hell are you going to do about this mess then?
May: I'm sure its not that bad...
Merkel: Are you sure?
May: Its the will of the people...
Merkel: (Interrupts) Well you are going to have to sort this mess out. Otherwise we are all fucked.
May: But...
Merkel: You're the one who is mates with him.
May: I am the British Prime Minister. I will not be told what to do by the EU.
Merkel: European Army?

May: I'll fly out next week.

De Gaulle and NATO

www.charles-de-gaulle.com/the-stateman/france-and-the-world/de-gaulle-and-nato.html

Perhaps the French might strike a deal with Trumo to help him get rid of NATO thus allowing an EU army!! ? ( this is complete rubbish from me though 😀😀😀)

TM to emphasise value of EU - ha ha you really couldn't write it, could you.