Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
lurkinghusband · 20/01/2017 14:44

.

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 14:47

I am not yet convinced Labour is screwed, although they have had a good try at destroying themselves. I am not a Labour supporter so am on the sidelines on this.

UKIP haven't done as well as the press want you to believe - a poor second in Sleaford was their last result, in what should have been very fertile territory for them. UKIP members falling out with each other, left, right and centre - is not exactly displaying competence.

woman12345 - I think that list is now worthless. My MP Nicola Blackwood was Remain, her constituency voted Remain, but now she's babbling about 'supporting the will of the people'. More interested in keeping the Tory whip than representing her constituents' interests. She did have a reputation as being a reasonable MP but for many of us, she has now lost that.

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 14:53

The Conservatives have a centralised structure. This is in part due to their small (and declining) membership. They do not have the ability to have boots on the ground in, in the same way as Labour. Labour should start doing more on these lines - in the same vein as the Liberal Democrats. UKIP are a total disaster area when it comes to this as well. That's why Labour have decided to hold both Copeland and Stoke by-elections on the same day.

Their membership is their strength. They are not capitalising enough on it and emphasising it. They need too. THIS is where it is about getting back to their grassroots and being in touch and not in a Westminster bubble. Its not necessarily about having a middle class representative. THIS is where they have ultimately failed. Not because of the EU and immigration. That's the side show.

Even where there are strong local Conservative parties and councils they are still at a disadvantage due to this centralised control. For example: during the last round of Council Elections in 2016, in my area, the central party provided all the campaign leaflets based on generic templates. By contrast Lab and the Lib Dems were much more focused on local issues and free to act independently. The former can look slicker, but I'm not sure that's necessarily what people are really interested in.

It was a similar story for the GE in leafleting. We also got particular attention from Cameron himself as we were viewed as a target seat. His direct interest was important but also reflects the centralised nature of the Conservatives.

What is really hampering Labour from being more effective locally is factionalism and infighting at a local level. As well as low level corruption.

Stoke City Country is not currently Labour for this exact reason.

Where I live we recently had a situation where the leader of the council supported something and one of our local MPs supported something else. It ended up being more about who was more popular than the actual issue. The council leader won much to my relief as it was the best option for the area as a whole. My understanding is that the MP is likely to be deselected for the next GE. This is NOT because of her position on Brexit nor whether she is a Blairite or Corbynite but because of other issues (dubious conduct and how they treat the local party)

This is just not a failure of Corbyn's leadership. It existed before Corbyn.

There is no overall strategy for Labour and no overall sense of what the hell its about.

Brexit actually offers them a unique perfect chance to demonstrate that, such is the irony. They need to take what is a disaster and turn it into an opportunity. The trouble is, it will probably be too late to stop May's car crash.

OP posts:
whatwouldrondo · 20/01/2017 14:56

Did everyone see Verhofstadt's response to May's speech? Apologies if it has already been posted / commented on, sometimes this thread moves too quickly to keep up when on the hoof

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/not-punish-britain-shed-illusions-eu-fair-deal

I thought it was an interesting response, and that effectively the negotiating table is now being circled, and the main issues for negotiation laid down

So

No to cherry picking and free trade - no tailored deal for access to the single market without signing up to the obligations that come with it, although it may be significant that he does not specifically mention FOM.

Yes to cooperation on security

Yes to make settling the future of those EU citizens in the UK and those UK citizens in the EU a priority

No to UK threats of walking away / deregulation - not productive, itv would be self harm

Hmm to UKs commitment to a strong prosperous EU. We will believe it when we see it especially in the face of Trump's threat to the liberal democratic order

Yes to finding a solution that works for NI

whatwouldrondo · 20/01/2017 14:57

Thanks Red for another thread, almost a weekly commitment now

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 14:58

The Leave Vote was ultimately the consequence of the failure of democracy.

The UK currently has one of the lowest levels of trust in politicians in the Western World.

We should all reflect on that.

That's what Mr Banks is doing. Just he's trying to exploit that lack of faith.

OP posts:
Lico · 20/01/2017 15:03

Thanks Red.

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 15:05

I am hopeful for Labour in Copeland because I think their candidate knows about listening to people, so I hope they do capitalise on their membership and utilise it to the full.

Stoke is much more tricky, but a good local candidate, plus an emphasis on supporting the NHS ought to be the way to go. I gather there is a feeling that if Nuttall stands he's not local so that would go against him. If Labour can tar UKIP with the BNP brush that should go in their favour because Stoke has had a sample of them and they were found wanting.

prettybird · 20/01/2017 15:06

I think Labour is screwed in Scotland, as evidenced by Corbyn's visit today, when he told us that we had to accept that he would be expecting MPs to support invoking A50 (although his one Scottish MP is one of those expected to rebel but then, he'd already resigned from the Shadow Cabinet so Scotland is already represented on the Shadow cabinet by an MP from Sunderland, so what would he know?) I say that as a former Labour voter. Sad

The local SNP branch (in a nice middle class area) is full of former Labour members. In a local council ward of (I think) 8,000, there are 500 SNP party members.

The council elections in May are going to be interesting. Labour's long hold on Glasgow may be coming to an end.

unicornsIlovethem · 20/01/2017 15:08

Thanks for the new thread, Red.

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 15:09

Mark Kleinman ‏*@MarkKleinmanSky*
Exclusive: Ex-Chancellor George Osborne to take role with Blackrock Investment Institute, world's biggest asset manager to announce later.

Does that mean he is resigning as MP?!

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 15:16

news.sky.com/story/friends-reunited-as-osborne-joins-top-aide-in-blackrock-role-10735859

Nothing about him resigning. Yet. But. Seat is going in 2020.

OP posts:
Tanith · 20/01/2017 15:17

My MP Nicola Blackwood was Remain, her constituency voted Remain, but now she's babbling about 'supporting the will of the people'.

Same with Jeremy Hunt. Strangely, he doesn't seem so bothered about "the Will of the People" when it comes to the NHS Hmm

lurkinghusband · 20/01/2017 15:21

The Leave Vote was ultimately the consequence of the failure of democracy.

I think it's more a failure of the UKs democratic system.

Saying things like "failure of democracy" suggests we need something else ....

The Leave vote was a reflection that the UKs party political system, and FPTP electoral system are hopeless unsuited to the realities of 21st Century Britain.

Now there are two ways to address that problem. One would be to reform the system(s) so they are for the 21st century. The other is to make Britains reality more suited to a 19th Century system.

Seems May has opted for the latter.

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 15:22

Strangely, he doesn't seem so bothered about "the Will of the People" when it comes to the NHS

No, nor when the junior doctors vote went against his proposals by 52/48%. His response was 'tough'. When it comes to Brexit that is an 'overwhelming mandate'.

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 15:26

The other is to make Britains reality more suited to a 19th Century system.
Seems May has opted for the latter.

Nope, with her Henry VIII clauses she is going for broke and trying to take us back to the 16th Century.

Kaija · 20/01/2017 15:31

Thank you for the new thread, red.

I'm hopefully going to a lib dem thing at the weekend with two lib dem MPs (that's pretty much a quarter of them!). Does anyone have any useful questions I should ask?

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 15:36

Just thinking a by-election in Tatton could be interesting timing if Osborne is quitting. It would be sometime around the start of March.

Its Remain Land.

Also means that's less Big Guns in the Tories to oppose May though.

OP posts:
TheSmurfsAreHere · 20/01/2017 15:37

We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit.

Thanks Red

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 15:38

Kaija - Something about making sure Remain is not framed for blame if (when) May gets negative response from EU?

Not sure of wording, but something on those lines.

OP posts:
nong45 · 20/01/2017 15:38

So Corbyn fails to use the A50 vote as bargaining power for a democratic Brexit. Brexit is done quickly (ha!) and goes away as a dividing issue for Labour. UK is fair game to anyone who wants to make some low tax profit. People become worse off and the majority mood changes. Suppose this is Labour's strategy, as what it actually is is anyone's guess, how will people remember them? As the party that let it all happen without a fight?

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 15:41

Kevin Maguire ‏*@Kevin*_Maguire
Austerity-imposing George Osborne uses Trump's inauguration as cover to slip out he's banking a hefty fortune with US speculators Blackrock

Rowena Mason @rowenamason

George Osborne joins his old aide Rupert Harrison at BlackRock as a part time senior adviser - won't be resigning as an MP

OP posts:
TheSmurfsAreHere · 20/01/2017 15:43

The Leave vote was a reflection that the UKs party political system, and FPTP electoral system are hopeless unsuited to the realities of 21st Century Britain.

Actually I think the system IS unsuited atm.
The current political system doesn't reflect the wish of the population anymore (not enough party, wrong separation between right and left?). The electoral system is such that the representation in Parliament isn't a true representation of the population as a whole (see the fact that greens have no MPs despite having a lot of votes etc...)

And then we have the issue of the referendum and whether its ok to carry on with the same parliament when the vote is actually a vote AGAINST said government and/or manifesto. (aka the manifesto was about staying in Europe and the referendum vote was against it)

Peregrina · 20/01/2017 15:44

I think Osborne still has political ambitions, but is too tainted by association with Cameron. Still, a nice safe Tory seat will be found for him I am sure.

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 15:45

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Osborne: "BlackRock wants better outcomes for pensioners and savers - and I want to help them deliver that." Kerching......

How can you be a ''part-time" MP???

OP posts:
Swipe left for the next trending thread