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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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Thread gallery
14
Pestilentialone · 26/01/2017 08:36

Part of me is wishing that May's meeting with Trump proves to be an utter disaster and she puts her foot in it with her ever so tactful approach on things, and offends him by being too cocky herself, he blows a gasket and she start shitting herself. Publically would be rather sweet but I'll settle for behind closed doors and never knowing about the diplomatic car crash.
So heads she appeases Trump, tails she takes advantage of the judge's ruling and appeases the EU. Then she can "Go home and have a nice quiet sleep".
As a British female politician she should have had enough experience of bullying and coercion to maintain clear sight.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2017 08:38

Mirabelle I had a similar problem at school in the 1960s - I wanted to do German because I thought it would be useful for a science career.
However, German was in opposition to science in the timetable.

As I've posted before, that was never a problem to me in Germany, which over the last 15 years has attracted scientists from within the EU, as well as around the world. That's the country I know best, late 1980s to present day.
However, the Netherlands too was multinational, with English in the office.
I had no problem in Sweden either, although all colleagues on that contract were Swedish.
So, my personal experience in those countries at least was that English is either the common language of science, or an acceptable default.

Misti has posted that her experience in France is different, but I don't know if that was for scientists.

ojalele · 26/01/2017 08:39

And on another note, the whole 'special relationship' towards the US sounds so desperate. Like an ex desperately trying to get back into the others pants.

WrongTrouser · 26/01/2017 08:41

Anyone got a theory about why MN refuses to permit any discussion of brexit on the busy areas of the site?

There have been two quite lively Brexit threads in AIBU the last few days.

Peregrina You are on at least one of them Smile

woman12345 · 26/01/2017 09:00

red thanks for the brilliant post!
This may be the death throes of caucasian men of a certain age, who may or may not take us down with us, but thanks to everyone here for the posts.Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2017 09:01

Is May burning the UK's boats / bridges ?

Trump is trying to wreck the EU, because he sees it as the major trading rival to the US.
That's what he does in business and is trying to do as POTUS - destroy rivals.
The EU is currently #1 trading bloc (by total GDP) which he hates and even after Brexit would still be #2.

The UK is currently his main weapon for doing so, which is what DeGaulle and other Europeans always feared would happen

If the rEU27 believe that the UK is their enemy, then of course their first & probably only priorities in any Brexit deal are to defend themselves and to prevent the Uk doing deliberate damage to the EU.
May trying to ally with Trump, together with the agressive talk from Leave leaders and the tabloids, is reinforcing at least the popular view in Germany that the UK is potentially dangerous and should be kept at arms length.

Longtime Trump supporter Malloch, the expected ambassador to the EU, is advising traders to "short" the Euro and saying he expects it to fail within 18 months

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38749884

Imagine how the UK would feel, if the proposed US - or French, or German ...- ambassador to the UK was calling on people to short Sterling and predicting Sterling would end as a currency
(so the UK would have the upheaval of moving to dollars or Euros)

Now you can imagine how future US-EU relations are likely to be.
After Trump goes (which might even be after an early resignation if impeachment looks likely) the UK is totally screwed if it has deliberately tried to impoverish its nearest neighbours and the US relationship is no longer as cosy.

Also, a UK that has deliberately joined Trump will be detested by Democrats.
Are you sure the Democrats will never again take power in the US ?
Dmeographics suggest otherwise.

woman12345 · 26/01/2017 09:05

BigChoc been investigating Cambridge Analytica some more, based in Shoreditch and described as 'mercenaries' by some one in IT ; Data trawlers. Presume that if they hadn't done it some ones else would, but it's been a 'perfect storm' of data trawling techniques and Robert Mercer's bucks. Interesting.

woman12345 · 26/01/2017 09:07

May is not very political in the re -al sense, this visit is diplomatic and economic curtains for whatever is left of this country.
Who the is advising/controlling her?

Piggeligg · 26/01/2017 09:37

Totally agree with RTB assessment of May and Trump.

I can't fathom the mentality that thinks sucking up to this narcissist is the right course of action. It reinforces my impression of her as someone who also lacks empathy and compassion for others. She somehow thinks it is still good for the UK to ally with the US despite Trump and she clearly either doesn't care or supports all he stands for.

I'm genuinely ashamed to be British.

Peregrina · 26/01/2017 09:42

Peregrina You are on at least one of them

I am on a number of them, as I don't doubt you are aware, but if you see my posting, you will note that wasn't what I was commenting about.

Who is advising/controlling [May]?

Whoever it is, they are doing a bad job. The missile failure - the answer should have been, it's old news, most tests are successful, we know what went wrong. Instead, duck the question, slag someone else of, look a fool when the answer comes the next day, and feed into the public mind that the Trident missiles don't work.

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 09:46

Not got enough petrol?

Here have some more:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/26/theresa-may-troubles-inquiries-should-focus-ira/
Theresa May: Troubles inquiries should focus on IRA

No one say 'Bloody Sunday'.

What does Trump think about torture? What does May think about Human Rights? What do May and Trump think about the right to protest and the power of the State?

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/could-an-irish-referendum-delay-or-even-derail-brexit-1.2951162
Could an Irish referendum delay or even derail Brexit?
‘Unavoidable’ that talks on article 50 will trigger a referendum here, seminar hears

Could Irish voters block a future deal to withdraw Britain from the EU by rejecting it in a referendum? With the clock counting down to the formal commencement of the two-year Brexit negotiation process, some EU specialists are debating whether the project could be delayed, or even derailed, by a vote of the Irish people.

I said, don't say 'Bloody Sunday'.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-us-trade-deal-donald-trump-theresa-may-nhs-privatised-food-standards-beef-chicken-a7545536.html
Theresa May refuses to rule out private US firms taking over NHS services
Prime Minister faces repeated questions over the potential threats to public services and food standards, ahead of hertalks with President Trump later this week

"Brexit will stop TTIP"
SURPRISE!
TTIP ON STEROIDS.
No one saw this coming... Honest.

www.economist.com/news/britain/21715652-leaving-european-union-means-country-has-less-not-more-control-over-its?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/
Britain’s excruciating embrace of Donald Trump shows how little independence it has gained from Brexit
Leaving the European Union means the country has less, not more, control over its circumstances

And we expected 'what' instead exactly?

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Peregrina · 26/01/2017 09:53

I had a similar problem at school in the 1960s - I wanted to do German because I thought it would be useful for a science career. However, German was in opposition to science in the timetable.

Exactly the same in my school at the same time. Everyone had to do French O level. This is part of the problem - at the moment, English is the predominant foreign language for non-English speakers. What is the obvious candidate for us? It used to be French, (because it was the Diplomatic Language, as I was told in 1961 at school) but that has been losing its one time pre-eminence rapidly. What then should be taught? German for Scientists and those who want to do business in Central Europe? Spanish? Not just for holidays on the Costas but because it is something like the 4th most widely spoken language now, and will take you a long way in South America and even the US. Mandarin? Currently the fashionable fad, and although I have no direct experience, I gather not well taught on the whole, in the UK.

I think Spanish is tending to win now. It's also perceived as an easy language to learn, although I was once reminded that it's an easy language to learn badly.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2017 09:56

Continued amateurism & incompetence by Labour - on NI this time

No signs Labour is capable of defending the NI peace agreement, or of finding it's arse with both hands & a navigation App
May can do as she pleases when the Official Opposition is so hopelessly useless, time after time.

Corbyn in the HoC sent condolences to the family of a Northern Irish police officer “who lost his life over the weekend” - when he is in fact alive.

The Tories don't have to hammer him - NI politicians and Police Fed are doing that:

“jaw-dropping gaffe”

"that someone who sees himself as an alternative prime minister could be so out of touch to make such a basic and hurtful error is almost unbelievable.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/25/jeremy-corbyn-criticised-for-northern-ireland-dead-police-officer-gaffe-pmqs

If his team can't fact check, or he forgot his script (?) he should at least have listened to the PM and modified his planned remarks:

She "sent her thoughts to the police officer"

  • did Corbyn think that was via a bloody medium ? !
BigChocFrenzy · 26/01/2017 09:57

its arse Blush

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 10:13

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prison-inmates-kill-themselves-england-wales-2016-record-number-suicide-jail-conditions-treatment-a7546831.html]]
Record number of prison inmates killed themselves in England and Wales in 2016

NO NHS crisis. NO Prison crisis.

40 journalists are flying with May to the USA. I hope they bring back ALL the gossip and the White House Leaks.

Paul Nuttall now fav for Stoke in betting. If he wins does that mean there will be an MEP by-election? (reaching for silver lining). Labour picked a non-Corbyn candidate - which despite all the talk of a Trot take over and deselections seems to be the rule rather than the exception. Trouble is the Labour candidate is pro-Remain. (FWIW I don't think this is necessarily as bad as being predicted as I've said previously). Trouble is, the guy they selected seems to be problematic, and is perhaps careless on twitter leaving himself a sitting duck (or turkey) for rivals:
order-order.com/2017/01/25/labour-stoke-candidate-is-remainer-who-backed-turkey-joining-eu/
He doesn't seem to be going down much better with Remainers either though. One Labour Stokie said he wasn't Stokie enough even though he was a local councillor. Seems the bar is to be born there and never leave.

CNN Politics @CNNPolitics
BREAKING: President Trump says intelligence officials have told him torture "absolutely" works

Interesting wording in context of what I posted late last night. Who is running Trump and whispering in his ear?

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Kaija · 26/01/2017 10:14

"Interesting wording in context of what I posted late last night. Who is running Trump and whispering in his ear?"

My money is on Bannon.

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 10:15

Sam Morris ‏*@SamMorrisDesign*
This photo of an Eagle taking a hard look at itself is not a metaphor for anything that's been in the news recently

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day
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RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 10:16

Britain Elects ‏*@britainelects*

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (-2)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
(via YouGov / this week)

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MitzyLeFrouf · 26/01/2017 10:30

Sickening to see May so desperate to shove her snout up Trump’s backside. And the day after he’s said ‘hurrah for torture’.

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 10:30

www.ft.com/content/40075c22-e314-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a
Spain backs early trade talks in Brexit negotiations
Foreign minister rejects ‘punitive’ approach and says EU not targeting City

He says:
“My personal opinion is that we won’t put Gibraltar at the centre of negotiations. The situation is actually very clear and there is nothing for us to ask for: The UK leaves the EU and Gibraltar leaves the EU. If Gibraltar wants to make a life outside the EU, they are perfectly free to do so.”

No special deal for Gibraltar is potentially a problem.

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MitzyLeFrouf · 26/01/2017 10:34

'May is not very political in the re -al sense, this visit is diplomatic and economic curtains for whatever is left of this country.'

She seems utterly clueless doesn't she?

Mistigri · 26/01/2017 10:39

I had assumed it was just that the debates got extremely heated

That one didn't, it had more or less fizzled out anyway before it was moved.

Was surprised to see a Trump thread sitting in AIBU, but then as the Breitbarters have all disappeared perhaps it's deemed safe enough.

Indeed ;)

MitzyLeFrouf · 26/01/2017 10:41

And as for her apparent rabbit out of the hat trick yesterday where she said , ‘Aha! Yes we will be publishing a White Paper’. Well what is the fucking point if it’s going to be published at a date yet to be confirmed after Article 50 has been triggered?

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 10:45

Theresa May is also set to go to Turkey soon remember.

I can't wait until they talk about trade deals and like everyone else talk about relaxing movement of people...

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Mistigri · 26/01/2017 10:51

Misti has posted that her experience in France is different, but I don't know if that was for scientists.

Re the language spoken in company offices, I think it may depend on the sector not the country. People in my employer's European subsidiaries all talk the local language for day to day exchanges, especially in the manufacturing and sales operations, but English is the common language for management interactions (FTSE company). At Airbus in Toulouse you might find that the common language is English, but I think that's the exception not the rule. And it's bloody difficult being an expat and not speaking the local language unless you live in an expat enclave, which I wouldn't wish on anyone.

My employer's graduate programme requires a minimum of a physical science degree + 2 languages with English obligatory + ideally one of French, German and Dutch. So get your kids studying languages. Remember language number two is hard, but it gets easier from there onwards!