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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 21:15

woman I read about psychometrics several years ago, but I hadn't realised the consequences of combining it with the enormous amount of personal data online that can be mined.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 21:28

More on the US torture sites Trump wants to restore

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/25/donald-trump-war-on-terror-black-sites-torture

There were over 100 sites scattered around half the world
iirc, they were in Syria & Libya too. Basically in any dictatorship that employed torture and was prepared to let the US add its own torture sites.

I wonder why the US never wanted them in their own country Hmm
Still don't, even Trump and his minions

lalalonglegs · 25/01/2017 21:34

The 8th amendment prohibits "cruel and unusual punishment" which I imagine covers waterboarding Hmm. Sadly the founding fathers didn't think to ban Americans from using it outside the States.

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 21:35

It is horrendous, bigchoc no other words for this administration.
He is not well.

SummerLightning · 25/01/2017 21:42

woman it sounds like it, re Cambridge Analytica. It has Steve Bannon on the board according to the article. Very scary. Why aren't other campaigns using this technology?

SummerLightning · 25/01/2017 21:43

i.e. I'm sure there are other companies doing similar stuff, even if this one only works for the extreme right wing.

Kaija · 25/01/2017 21:48

"do Cambridge Analytica just work for extreme right, I wonder? "

Steve Bannon is on the board.

Grim reading. This is very sophisticated population control. Makes Hypernormalisation look rather understated.

See also Dominic Cummings on how Vote Leave used data analysis and targeted adverts.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/on-the-referendum-20-the-campaign-physics-and-data-science-vote-leaves-voter-intention-collection-system-vics-now-available-for-all/amp/?client=safari

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 21:51

Come to think of it, some young people have been warning me about Trump and Britain First for at least the last three years. Cambridge Analytica must have been operational on social media for ages to soften up generations, track them and target them through their childhood. The alt right does have a demographic which includes quite a lot of college educated young white men doesn't it.

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 21:52

And it's planted seeds in young minds. Many now believe absolutely nothing.

Kaija · 25/01/2017 22:16

It's the seeds that have been planted in old minds that seem to be doing the most damage at the moment.

mathanxiety · 25/01/2017 23:22

I think the psychometrics article illustrates the importance of Wikileaks and other whistleblowers.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2017 23:26

Michel Barnier ‏*@MichelBarnier*
Today in Oslo meeting PM @erna_solberg and her gov. Will work hand in hand. EEA shows deep cooperation requires level playing field #Brexit

Faisal Islam ‏*@faisalislam*

Why's Barnier in Norway talking Brexit?? Rather interesting hint in here about what a comprehensive UK-EU partnership might require,

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RedToothBrush · 25/01/2017 23:32

LD party political this evening was interesting. No facts. Big play for people's feelings. Its a definite shift in strategy.

Not sure it will work if not backed up by data, but noteworthy in its own right.

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RedToothBrush · 26/01/2017 00:09

nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/01/trump-aides-cant-stop-blabbing-about-how-hes-a-madman.html
Trump Aides Keep Leaking Embarrassing Stories About How He Can’t Handle Embarrassment

And a couple of threads in a similar vein:

Alexandra Erin ‏*@alexandraerin*

Donald Trump told us he wanted the weekend off. He had no intention of going to the CIA, or anywhere else. So how did he get there? Like so:

Thing the first - when asked about his/the GOP's plan on ACA, he said, repeatedly, that the Democrats "own Obamacare" and its failures. He said that they "should" let it fail and the Democrats would "own it", but they're not going to.

Thing the second - when he visited the CIA, he said outright that he was visiting them first to put to bed the idea of a rift with them.

And thing the third - he described the purpose of sweeping regulatory rollback as being to allow companies to do something "monstrous" fast.

These three things all have one thing in common - saying them in no way helped him, in no way advanced his case or achieved a goal.

So why did he say them? I'll tell you why. It's the other thing they have in common: they are internal talking points. Strategy points. Donald Trump told us he wanted the weekend off. He had no intention of going to the CIA, or anywhere else. So how did he get there? Like so:

Someone close to him says, "Donald, you need to go talk to the CIA."

"I don't wanna. They're out to get me."

"That's why you have to go."

His advisor (handler) says, "The media's talking about this rift, this rift. You have to go talk to them right away, show there's no rift." So Donald Trump gets up in front of the CIA and his paid cheering session, and honest to God the only thing he says on topic is that. He repeats, probably almost word for word, the rationale his advisor told him he had to be there. He doesn't understand what they actually wanted him to do, which was to get up and praise the CIA and act like there was no rift.

The other cases? Same thing. He's repeating to reporters the verbiage his aides and advisors explain to him why he wants to do things.

It was probably Bannon the nihilist who told him that the regulatory rollback would help companies that want to do monstrous things. My point here is - Donald Trump was never a complex or nuanced man, but at this point, he's... well, "far gone" is the only way to put it.

It's unfortunate there is so much loaded, ableist rhetoric around both evil and incompetent men, but there is something going on here. When you read the text of a Trump interview or speech from ten years ao, compared to one today? The degradation is very obvious.

Remember the report that the Russians had prepared all this kompromat on Trump but found they didn't need it? He just does what they say. And his close aides/associates outright saying he basically does what the last person he talked to (that he trusts) suggests.

I'll put this very bluntly: I don't think Donald Trump understands what the people in his life are telling him to do, even as he does it. If he were playing poker and Steve Bannon were helping him and Bannon said, "Donald, you're showing an ace but you've got nothing, bluff". Donald would say, "I've got nothing so I'm bluffing." and then get very angry when he doesn't win, because he was told that would work.

There are at least those three times in January alone that he has repeated what was obviously an internal talking point, to reporters.This is not to say he's entirely a puppet president. I think he's doing two things right now: his own impulses, and what he's talked into. Both kinds of things are dangerous for different reasons. His unchecked id, unrestrained temperament, could literally get us all killed. And his tendency to go along with whatever the people he relies on press him into doing puts very dangerous people in powerful positions.

And our supposedly "liberal media" spent ages blandly reporting on "concerns" of Clinton's health that were clearly deflection/projection.

Mark my words, if things continue, he's gonna pull a talking points gaffe like the ones I mentioned during an importantion negotiation. (My bold)

I've kept waiting for anyone in the media to notice this pattern but no one seems to be picking up on it, among the other weirdness. I'm sure to Donald it makes a kind of sense, he's always subscribed to the idea that it's all just "moves" in a negotiation anyway. The idea that you don't tell the person you're buttering up you're there to butter them up, or reveal your scapegoat plans to the public seems to have slipped away from him, though. He's lost what little sense of subtlety he ever had.

A scene I'd bet has happened:
Advisor: Donald, you have to say X, because Y.
Donald: So I say Y.
A: You can't say Y.
D: But I'm president!

And then there's a ten minute argument about why did the advisor tell him Y if he can't say Y, why can't he say Y if Y is true, etc. And the advisor tries to convince him that he can't say Y because it looks bad, but that turns into Donald wanting to say THAT. And then they run out of time and the advisor gives up, figuring (mostly correctly!) that it will all be overlooked anyway.

That's how we end up with Trump rambling about the Democrats owning Obamacare if the repeal/replace fails. That's how we end up with Trump telling the CIA he's visiting them first because of appearances. That's how we end up with Trump explaining the purpose of the regulation rollback as allowing companies to do monstrous things quickly.

Now, if you think this is worrying, here's the scary part: the people working with him in the White House and the GOP leaders must know this

And their collective reaction to this ongoing and likely spiraling state of affairs is not "This is bad." but "What a golden opportunity!"

Tomorrow, God willing, I will wake up. And I will find Trump's online supporters saying, "How do you know that's what his advisors said?" And it's true, I have no inside knowledge. It's just conversational algebra. You start from the actual outcome and work backwards. See, with a few exceptions, people rarely say things that make no sense. You just have to figure out how they make sense. And while it's tempting to dismiss what Trump spews in his rambles as "word salad", a lot of it does make sense from the right perspective. And I'm telling you, a lot of what he's been doing is repeating fragments of advice he'd get from advisors, things from strategy meetings. And I have never had a high opinion of him, but I don't believe he would have done that, ten years ago. Make of that what you will.

---------------------

Kristin Rawls @kristinrawls
He's angry at us for not letting him "enjoy" his presidency. The purpose for him was his own amusement. Expect the viciousness to escalate. He cannot deal with criticism. All criticism will continue to be met with vicious acting out and reckless behavior. And he has nukes.

It will be petty, it will be vastly out of proportion with the perceived slight, it will seem to come out of nowhere. He doesn't view people as people, but as players in the story of his life. He cannot feel empathy and believes this is true of everyone. He sees expressions of empathy as feigned and believes himself superior for being "real" about such things.

It was profoundly irresponsible for anyone ever to give this man power over anything. It's all one big ego trip and billions could die.

I grew up with such a person as a parent. There is so much I could tell you, my god. I spent the first 25 years of my life trying to rationalize with these impulses in my family member, appease them trying to understand, waiting for the "pivot" as @tapati put it yesterday. There is no pivot. There never will be.

So everyone needs to reformulate their expectations yesterday.

Democrats will not be able to reason him into getting better.

It's sometimes possible in the family context to get small behavioral changes by setting firm boundaries and sticking to them. "If this very specific thing does not stop, I will stop speaking to you," and then following through. But that's when you still have the power to take something away that they want. They can change behaviors in small ways out of self-interest.

It worries me that it may be impossible to take anything away from him now. He intends to rule, not govern, and doesn't understand that we are his employer. And the only thing stopping anyone from becoming our king in the past was norms. Well, he has no regard for those.

My parent punched a hole in the wall of a rented house when I was 2 weeks old b/c I didn't sleep through the night. I wasn't letting them "enjoy" being a parent, such an ungrateful baby. I was lucky the punch didn't land on me. Now the punch lands on us.

-----------

If even a fraction of any of these three opinions is remotely true, then the idea that May can remotely reason with Trump is utterly absurd. Not only that but the idea that we should be doing business with him, rather than running for the hills is utterly bonkers.

May is quoted tonight as
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/25/theresa-may-america-britain-will-lead-together-brexit-election/
Theresa May: America and Britain will 'lead together again' after Brexit and election of Donald Trump

To miss the point entirely. Trump does not lead with anyone. He RULES them in fear. The idea of cooperation, is NUTS.

I'm not sure if these opinions are correct, but the mere fact they exist, tells you enough.

Part of me is wishing that May's meeting with Trump proves to be an utter disaster and she puts her foot in it with her ever so tactful approach on things, and offends him by being too cocky herself, he blows a gasket and she start shitting herself. Publically would be rather sweet but I'll settle for behind closed doors and never knowing about the diplomatic car crash.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 26/01/2017 01:04

Idiot - we led when we had an Empire, the War finished that. Then the US took over. We have never led together.

If/when Trump is impeached, May will look more stupid than she does now.

mathanxiety · 26/01/2017 04:37

From Lico's Guardian link:
May will tell Republicans: “The United Kingdom is by instinct and history a great, global nation that recognises its responsibilities to the world. And as we end our membership of the European Union – as the British people voted with determination and quiet resolve to do last year – we have the opportunity to reassert our belief in a confident, sovereign and global Britain, ready to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike.

“So as we rediscover our confidence together – as you renew your nation just as we renew ours – we have the opportunity, indeed the responsibility, to renew the special relationship for this new age. We have the opportunity to lead, together, again.”

.....and gag.....

More:
...trade experts are sceptical that a deal can be negotiated quickly – and warn that the US may take advantage of its superior bargaining position as a much larger economy to force open Britain’s markets to US firms.

Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee who is now president of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, said: “It would require an enormous, transformative relationship with the US to make up for the decline in trade with the EU.

“For 70 years, since the second world war, the US, beyond very narrow intelligence-sharing, has always treated the UK as subservient, or wanted it to be subservient.”

He added: “There’s a lot of reasons to think there will be very small upsides; I can say with very great confidence any gains made from such [a deal] will be a small fraction of what they’ll lose.”...

...Peter Mandelson, who negotiated with the US as the EU’s trade commissioner, said any deal was unlikely to bring rapid benefits for the UK. “If the agreement has real content and is not just for optics, the US will drive a hard bargain. They are tough and ultimately it will be the American way or no way, leaving us even more isolated from Europe and what should remain as our biggest export market,” he said.

MirabelleTree · 26/01/2017 07:16

You know that things have gone seriously pearshaped when you wake up, look at the news and see the US president saying water boarding works, pretty much next to an article about how our PM is saying the UK and US can lead the world.

That woman has utterly and completely lost it, this is not the time to be cosying up to the US. She's starting to sound as mad as he is and I say that as someone convinced he has early Frontotemporal dementia.

Motheroffourdragons · 26/01/2017 07:20

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

MirabelleTree · 26/01/2017 07:52

My Grandparents were German and started married life at the start of the 30's, I'm beginning to feel I understand them better. Could really do with my DS learning German as he is headed for a science career but they've stopped it in the school and I was not brought up bilingual so can't really teach him as not fluent.

Mistigri · 26/01/2017 08:09

Anyone got a theory about why MN refuses to permit any discussion of brexit on the busy areas of the site?

In the context of what Trump is busy doing to the US media, and the way that the conversation about Brexit is dominated by the tabloids to the point that MPS are afraid to speak their mind for fear of being targeted, it's starting to look like deliberate censorship.

Peregrina · 26/01/2017 08:16

Anyone got a theory about why MN refuses to permit any discussion of brexit on the busy areas of the site?

No, but to those noisy Leavers going on about "it's democracy", it just goes to show how little interest they really have in the EU.

PattyPenguin · 26/01/2017 08:20

Were there too many complaints about Brexit threads when they first started? And if so, from whom?

From Mumsnetters who felt upset by the arguments? Though how this squares with AIBU, I don't know.

From people who don't like politics being discussed? To whom I would say, you do know politics affect your lives, bigly, don't you?

Or was it from posters with an agenda? Are Mumsnet Towers being played?

Kaija · 26/01/2017 08:30

That's interesting. I had assumed it was just that the debates got extremely heated and, as one poster put it, when your baked beans declare war on your spaghetti hoops on the shop shelf it's bad for business (or words to that effect).

Was surprised to see a Trump thread sitting in AIBU, but then as the Breitbarters have all disappeared perhaps it's deemed safe enough.

ojalele · 26/01/2017 08:31

Can Scotland and NI stay in the EU and in the UK/GB.

I don't see why not. Greenland left eventhough Denmark stayed in.

If I were Scottish, that is what I would push for.

Here is some advice from Denmark/Greenland for Britain: m.youtube.com/watch?v=R3QVc2Uy2Uw&feature=player_embedded