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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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woman12345 · 25/01/2017 13:22

Hope so, its announcement was to deflect JC?

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 14:31

HowAbout I don't think there is a similar ruling in the US:
The ruling wrt aid is that the USA cuts it off totally, i.e. no contraceptive services, maternity services or for care for rape victims.
NGOs have reported that past such rulings, e.g. by Bush, have cost the lives or damaged the health of many women and babies

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 14:37

The UK has a 35 billion trade surplus with the US, which May will be hoping to retain

  • top UK exports there being luxury cars, aero engines and yes, Scotch.

It goes against Trump's "America First," because as I posted up thread, the UK doesn't produce much of that in the US
Apparently May wishes to increase immigration in both directions.

So both May and Trump seem to be going against their principles in the special UK-US trade dal they are seeking

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 15:16

BigChoc I don't think these two really give a proverbial about trade deals. Has either of them run a successful business? The White House website reveals this as in the autarkic self sufficiency crap, and UKIP manifesto is pretty thin on trade. (required reading atm).

The EU, trading agreements are concerning the good people trying to fix this in the real world, but May, Banks, Trump, Erdogan and Le Pen's political and constitutional agendas go way beyond trade. Till now, I think you or ron wrote of the ethical nature of a lot of global business operations. Even they realised at Davos who is wielding the power now.

Google and Amazon seem like Che Guevaras compared to them.

lalalonglegs · 25/01/2017 16:47

More good news! A Dutch MEP wants to launch an enquiry into the UK government's hostile attitude towards EU citizens wishing to apply for residency. The MEP, Sophie in 't Veld, wants the taskforce to summon Theresa May to Brussels to answer questions.

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2017 16:59

Faisal Islam ‏**@faisalislam**
Current thinking A50 Bill: 2 days debate (2nd reading) next week. 3 days (committee stage)... but on timing of White Paper... then recess
Some sources indicating that White Paper "by end of March" - i.e. After substantive Commons debates planned in next fortnight

NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

If this is the case, then the whole thing is a farce. How can you discuss it without a white paper?! Its lip service not accountability. Again.

Faisal Islam ‏**@faisalislam**
SNP's @AngusRobertson just tweeted "@theSNP calling for UK govt to publish Brexit White Paper before committee stage of Art50 legislation"

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SummerLightning · 25/01/2017 17:04

I received an answer from my MP. Apparently staying in the single market "would not be leaving the EU" and she "hopes the government can work to ensure the economy remains stable" Jeez, I feel so much more reassured.

lalalonglegs · 25/01/2017 17:05

Why on earth would you publish white paper after the debates? The government is batty (or perhaps they're hoping to get some ideas to put in it while the bill goes through the Commons?).

Lico · 25/01/2017 17:07

Article on gutter press. The Sun congratulated other tabloïdes the day after the referendum.
The Daily Express is up for sale and is eyed up by Mirror group.
Tabloïdes are now losing money because since the sterling going down , the paper they need to import is costing more. Paper is the second big expense after staff!!
So tabloïdes might lose out in the long run..

www.lefigaro.fr/international/2017/01/22/01003-20170122ARTFIG00131-brexit-la-revanche-des-tabloids.php

TheSmurfsAreHere · 25/01/2017 17:15

lico couldn't read the whole article but just that made me Shock
Pourtant, à un journaliste qui lui demandait pourquoi il haïssait tant l'Union européenne, le magnat australien de 85 ans avait confié un peu plus tôt: «C'est simple. Quand je vais à Downing Street, ils font ce que je leur dis. Quand je vais à Bruxelles, personne ne s'en aperçoit.»

Translation
To a journalist who was asking why he [Murdoc] hated the EU, the 85yo australian (!!) said a little earlier:
'It's simple. When I go to Downing Street, they do as I told them to do. When I go to Brussels, none even notice.'

What else can I say ....

RedToothBrush · 25/01/2017 17:25

One of the problems with paper is all the paper mills are in Europe. Paper is heavy so much of the cost is in transporting it after its been produced and shipping in the raw supplies.

The cost of paper has been going up steadily for years. Its put a lot of British printers out of business (particularly small businesses) as they can not compete with their European competitors purely because of the cost of paper.

We live on a island - in theory we should be in a prime position for being competitive about producing paper - because we can cut a lot of the cost through shipping rather than roads. Much is either now from recycled sources so it could help environmental interests or from managed forests (think about where managed forests are - mainly northern Europe rather than central /southern Europe).

Except we're not. Go figure.

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TheElementsSong · 25/01/2017 18:00

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/impact-of-immigration-on-native-wages-infinitesimally-small-a7545196.html

And in an interview with The Independent Sir Stephen has confirmed that Brexiteers grossly misrepresented his findings.

Research by the Resolution Foundation think tank last year suggested that any downward impact of increased immigration on native wages over the past seven years in some sectors has been dwarfed by the overall general pay squeeze on all workers since the global financial crisis.

Not exactly news to the knowledgeable folk on this thread.

Cailleach1 · 25/01/2017 18:24

Alex Salmond said that to Boris Johnson in one of the debates. Johnson quoted from some report he hadn't read. Salmond picked him up on it and asked him if he had actually read the report. Johnson stood by his lie misrepresentation of the effect on immigration on wages.

PattyPenguin · 25/01/2017 18:27

Between 2000 and 2010 the UK lost around 50 paper mills.

The only-too-prevalent short termism of UK industry is coming back to bite us on the bum - or rather other sectors, in this case.

mathanxiety · 25/01/2017 19:04

"Plus the Supreme Court in the US has elected judges"

Not so - they are appointed by the President, and installed after grilling by the Senate Judiciary Committee, and if forwarded to the Senate, voted on by that body.

mathanxiety · 25/01/2017 19:20

Wrt Chicago - In 2016, there were some 3,550 shooting incidents and 762 murders... This is a lot more than NYC and other comparable cities.

From Woman's ABCNews report linked earlier:
"Chicago Police Superintendent Eddie Johnson said in a statement Tuesday night: "As the Mayor said just a few hours ago, the Chicago Police Department is more than willing to work with the federal government to build on our partnerships with DOJ, FBI, DEA and ATF and boost federal prosecution rates for gun crimes in Chicago."

On Tuesday, Emanuel told WTTW that "there’s a lot that federal government can do" and "I’ve been very specific about this."

Specifically, the mayor mentioned gun control, "back up our officers with federal resources" and "funding and being a partner in making sure our kids have good activities," according to WTTW.

"So in all aspects, the federal government can be a partner, and to be honest, they haven’t been for decades,” he added."

Trump and Emanuel butted heads when Trump Tower was built in Chicago, the surface issue being the yuge TRUMP signage that defaces the cityscape.

The squeezing of city resources available to city administrations for dealing with the poor in inner cities is the result of GOP ideology applied to economics (opposition to welfare) plus racism (the poor tend to be black) plus refusal to countenance a curb of any kind on the right to gun ownership. This has been the case since Reagan was president.

Yes, other cities seem to have done a better job of reining in the murder rate than Chicago has, but we are still looking at murder rates in American cities that would be unacceptable anywhere else on earth apart from maybe Somalia or Libya.

lalalonglegs · 25/01/2017 19:32

math - I was in Chicago the summer of last year, the first time in 15 years. It's still a great city but I was really horrified by the number of (presumably) homeless people - nearly all black - that were begging in the city centre. There honestly seemed to be someone every five or six metres and when we stopped to look at a map at a station, about four men swarmed wanting to help us for a fee. It was so sad, such a contrast to the early noughties. We were also really taken aback by the violence in some neighbourhoods: we watched the local news on a Monday morning and it was reported that there had been 28 shootings in the past 48 hours Shock.

We were pleased to see that a lot of the space in the Trump Tower seemed to be empty Smile.

mathanxiety · 25/01/2017 19:40

'It's an ill wind...'

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 19:50

lala I've been expecting other governments to object to how their nationals are being harassed - it seems deliberate with "prepare to leave" letters.

It seems extraordinary to deliberately inflame other governments - and their voters too.
Don't they realise that the media naturally reports on how their own citizens are treated in the UK, including official and private harassment ?

Really stupid tactics - May doesn't know how to negotiate
She is a bully when she thinks she has the whip hand (She doesn't - does she expect Trump to whip them for her ?)
Like all bullies, she'll probably grovel before a bigger bully, like Trump.

Other EU governments haven't done this to UK citizens afaik
e.g. the civil servants in Germany were very sympathetic & helpful to me.

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 20:00

Another worth a read by AC Grayling, from another thread:
docs.google.com/document/d/10PA9ii4yqDnLbmzDeRcAcoVosAYvMJTh9P6bCw-tSqs/edit

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 20:11

^Jolyon Maugham, a London tax lawyer, is taking legal action to seek a ruling from the European Court of Justice on whether Britain can unilaterally revoke Article 50 without the consent the other 27 EU states.
He said “a letter before action” would be issued against the Irish State on Friday and legal proceedings would begin in Dublin’s High Court on or before January 27th^.
www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/lawyer-taking-brexit-escape-route-case-in-irish-courts-confident-of-success-1.2935795

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 20:24

On another thread, this link about psychometrics used by Trump & Leave campaigns:

antidotezine.com/2017/01/22/trump-knows-you/

suggests the 2 events may not be so much an example of a spontaneous "revolt against the elite" but rather the first examples of professionals using info collected about people on FB etc for political purposes.

This may be the future of politics.
Using the old methods is like taking a bow & arrow to face rifles.

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 20:27

Scientists to March on Washington
March for Science @ScienceMarchDC
It has never been more important for scientists of all stripes to come together and have their voices heard in government.

woman12345 · 25/01/2017 20:39

bigchoc wow, do Cambridge Analytica just work for extreme right, I wonder? Fascinating. Wonder where that leaves writing to MPs and spending evenings posting leaflets in letter boxes. Shouldn't think this sort of service comes cheap but if the article's right, it's how elections are won. Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 25/01/2017 21:13

Impending Trump executive order to bring back torture

Now you really should be very afraid

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/25/trump-executive-order-torture-black-sites-guantanamo-bay

www.wbnews.info/2017/01/trumps-impending-executive-order-could-bring-back-torture-critics-fear/

During the campaign, Trump promised to bring back techniques “a hell of a lot worse” than the waterboarding used during George W's administration.
He also proposed deliberately killing the families of terrorists as a "seterrent"

In an interview with ABC News, Trump repeated his belief that torture works, “absolutely” and that the US should “fight fire with fire”