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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris and the Country find out what ‘Mayism’ looks like.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/01/2017 11:04

Its fair comment to say that Theresa May doesn’t like people who disagree with her.

In her New Year’s message, the Prime called for unity. She insisted that she would represent the interests of the 48%. I’m sure I’m not alone in finding these comments rather at odds with her actions.

The New Year hasn’t started to well for her with the resignation of the UK’s ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers in which he accused the government of ‘muddled thinking’ and urged civil servants to stay strong in delivering bad news to ministers.

Rogers had, made a point of stressing that the UK needed a transitional deal which would be around 10 years which went down like a cup of cold sick. His resignation has been greeted by howls of joy by rampant Brexiteers. Yet given that when the UK entered the much less complex European Community in 1973, we had a seven year transition period in, the suggestion of a 10 year exit, actually makes sense if you want to Leave the EU and its far from an obstructive position. Rogers has subsequently commented that he thinks we have a 50:50 chance of a chaotic exit now, given ministers refusal to listen to reason.

In all honesty that looks like an optimistic assessment at this moment in time.

It all begs the question of what next?

To look at the future, it’s worth rewinding a little and seeing how we got here. Just how did May become PM over and above her political rivals when she has very few political allies and friends.

Back in October 2015, as still Home Secretary, Theresa May made her speech at the Conservative Party Conference and said that immigration makes it "impossible to build a cohesive society."

This Telegraph Article from the time made the observation that the speech was designed to fan the flames of prejudice in a cynical attempt to become Conservative leader

How is this ever going to be reconcilable with Remainers? That is not just an anti-immigration stance. It goes way beyond that. May was apparently a reluctant Remainer, but there has always been this accusation that she was never fully on board and never actively campaigned. I just don't buy it anymore.

Then there was how she worked with the Coalition Government.

In September the Liberal Democrats made the accusation that she repeatedly trying to interfere with a crucial Government report on the effects of immigration back in 2014. This was not the first such accusation. It suggests she was anti-expert and post-fact just as much as any hard core Brexiteer. Norman Baker also accused her, before he later resigned, of suppressing information about to deal with people on drugs. His resignation letter, is incredibly reminiscent of Ivan Rogers resignation letter:

In a scathing verdict on Ms May’s leadership, Mr Baker warned that support for “rational evidence-based policy” was in short supply at the top of her department.

And

He told The Independent yesterday that the experience of working at the Home Office had been like “walking through mud” as he found his plans thwarted by the Home Secretary and her advisers.

“They have looked upon it as a Conservative department in a Conservative government, whereas in my view it’s a Coalition department in a Coalition government,” he said.

“That mindset has framed things, which means I have had to work very much harder to get things done even where they are what the Home Secretary agrees with and where it has been helpful for the Government and the department.

“There comes a point when you don’t want to carry on walking through mud and you want to release yourself from that.”

Was Theresa May to blame? Did Norman Baker have a point? Well Ivan Rogers seems to think he does.

The Economist’s Indecisive Premier article does say that May worked well with people she got on well with or had a shared vision with – including Lynne Featherstone, the first Liberal Democrat to work with her at the Home Office. The trouble is, that there is an ongoing pattern of her having problems with those she doesn’t get on with and her desire for control and micro management lead to a tendency to build an echo chamber rather than build a consensus or more pragmatic approach. It also notes she had personal clashes with Gove, Osborne and Johnson on key issues. Its not just Liberal Democrats she has a problem with. Of course, she only has one of the three in her current Cabinet. Let’s not forget Mark Carney either. It rather leads you to suspect that Baker was not the first, nor will Rogers be the last.

This does not bode well for compromise with the EU. May does not seem to do compromise unless backed into a corner and then its because she has been forced and then not on her terms. May can not bulldoze in the same when she does eventually sit down for talks.

It does not bode well for the future of this country, if senior positions are only for Yes Men regardless of whether you are a Remainer or a Leaver. If she has these ongoing issues with Gove, Osborne and Johnson, is it a problem? Will they continue or will they quit? Will Davis or Fox get frustrated at her constant slap downs. Will the lack of friends be a problem in the long run. Especially when one of her closest allies in Phillip Hammond is also seeming to be facing the same frustrations.

Of course, no friends, also means May has plenty of people she has no problem with throwing under the Brexit Bus.

Will May take any responsibility if it all goes wrong? Who did Theresa May blame for not achieving the all-important immigration target in 2014?

Theresa May: Lib Dems to blame for immigration target failure

It was not her failing. Of course.

And the legal battles she lost whilst at the home office? Not her fault. It was the left wing liberal human rights lawyers, therefore Human Rights are the problem and must be removed.

Never hold up the mirror and admit your beliefs are wrong. Fudge the figures, supress the reports, fuel the flames, blame others, send people to Coventry or ignore them until they quit in frustration. Anything but take responsibility or listen to what you don’t want to hear. She is well versed in it all. These are not the hallmarks of a great consensus builder.

When May calls for unity, is it genuine or merely a precursor for the inevitable blame stitch up? Excuse my cynicism but this is the very definition of what Mayism is. Oh and don’t forget the Red, White and Blue bit. Patriotism the last resort of the scoundrel.

May is set to make a speech later this month outlining her commitment to Brexit. It sounds like yet another guaranteed source of conflict and division rather than unity. Davis and Johnson are helping write it. Fox has been sidelined... which fits with the rumours that he's first under the wheels.

May WILL unite Leavers and Remainers in the end. In how we look back at how she drove us off the cliff and how she sold us all down river with her hard headed blinkers.

Unfortunately the chances are, this will be after it is too late at this rate, unless people on both sides wise up and realise what is really at stake.

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Thread gallery
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BestIsWest · 13/01/2017 21:59

Oops wrong thread! That was a joke account.

RedToothBrush · 13/01/2017 22:03

In fairness to May, she couldn't say anything different even if she wanted to or Chris Steele made 007 look like an amateur.

If she said anything else it would be a diplomatic incident - the UK intervening in US affairs and Russia would see it as a hostile move.

That said I do think something is afoot and things are happening behind the scenes.

Almost certainly information is being passed by British Secret Service to someone. What happens after Jan 20 and who it is passed to, is the interesting question... The US is our ally. But Trump? Is he friend or foe?

Technically speaking the British should pass on any intelligence to the US but if Trump is the 'enemy' then what?

Which makes you wonder if the point is making that as much as any other is that the British will pass intel to 'allies' in the US rather than the Trump administration who is in cahoots with Putin.

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woman12345 · 13/01/2017 22:11

Meanwhile............^Theresa May's Article 50 plans could be delayed by months due to Stormont crisis legal challenge
Alliance Party says PM could face court battle initiated by Northern Irish politicians if she tries to leave EU while the nation’s assembly is not sitting^
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-northern-ireland-crisis-stormont-assembly-delay-theresa-may-illegal-article-50-a7526126.html
A horrible paramilitary attack on a couple protecting their son took place today in NI, so hope that all this doesn't re ignite battles.

GloriaGaynor · 13/01/2017 22:15

The Stormont crisis will give May a bit more time to come up with a plan.

woman12345 · 13/01/2017 22:16

' Trump is the 'enemy' then what? '
And he's already been contradicted by Mattis on NATO (building up in Poland atm), I presume/hope GOP have plan B ready to go on Trump. Michael Moore said as much, and he's called quite a few things right in the last few years.

RedToothBrush · 13/01/2017 22:17

And on that note about whether Trump can be trusted:

www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.764711
U.S. Intelligence Officials Reportedly Warn Israeli Counterparts Against Sharing Info With Trump Administration

Shared information could be leaked to Russia and onward to Iran, American officials implied to Israelis in closed meeting, saying Kremlin has 'leverages of pressure' over Trump, Ronen Bergman reports.

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woman12345 · 13/01/2017 22:20

Israel, as usual, is in a completely invidious position, but no one messes with its national security.

RedToothBrush · 13/01/2017 22:26

CAKE?!

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit

Exclusive: minutes of Michel Barnier’s meeting with senior MEPs reveal he wants 27 member states to have easy access to London’s financial institutions

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woman12345 · 13/01/2017 22:36

And did you see that FT one posted earlier, in which German car manufacturer Dieter? explained clearly, so even the British could understand, they can't always get everything they demand. Maybe the British negotiators think that if they repeat the demands loudly and slowly, in English of course, eventually the foreigners will do as they say.

woman12345 · 13/01/2017 22:42

It's almost more worrying the potential damage that Brexit could do to European economies, as they say in that article. So callous, short sighted and just dangerous for this country and Europe.

mathanxiety · 14/01/2017 02:50

I wonder if the Sunderland result means there is a groundshift occurring - Woman12345 I concur that there is a perception of Labour as either Blairites or Trotskyites, and I suspect the LDs are coming across as far more credible to the sort of people who make the effort to get out and vote right now.
..............
GloriaGaynor, I agree with your take on the hooey.

(And Louise Mensch is clearly in need of a nice long lie-down).

BigChoc:
'2) Help him to win and get rid of him asap afterwards, before he could wreck the country / world.
This would involve gathering information about him, keeping the lid on until after the election, then releasing what they know.

They chose option 2'

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/13/uk-british-former-moscow-ambassador-andrew-wood-trump-dossier
They could also fill newspaper columns with comments like:
'At a point when the British government was hoping the story would go away, [former Ambassador] Wood lobbed the ball back into the billionaire’s court.

He told the Guardian the report’s key allegation – that Trump and Russia’s leadership were communicating via secret back channels during the presidential campaign – was eminently plausible.

“I think it has to be disproved, rather than anything else,” he said.'

In other words, fling mud and hope some of it sticks. So much of what has been circulated is a long way from credible.

I think the GOP is already engaged in full-on civil war. They saw him winning despite the initial revulsion of the party, and statements of party leaders like McCain and Bush and others who declared they would not vote for him or supported him very late in the game (Cruz for instance). Reince Priebus threw the weight of the party behind him and was duly rewarded. But there are many who distrust Trump and would have preferred almost anyone else as GOP president. I also suspect (like Gloria Gaynor) that eventually he will be ousted or even shot. What the GOP is doing now is establishing options - impeachment, hobbling, making Trump biddable.

mathanxiety · 14/01/2017 02:52

' So much of what has been circulated is a long way from credible.'

Or provable.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 14/01/2017 08:56

Another one of these:

Dutchwoman resident in UK for 30 years may have to leave after Brexit

It's becoming increasingly clear that the government see the threat of deporting these people as a key (perhaps, the only) card in their hand when it comes to negotiations. Shoddy.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 14/01/2017 09:06

Its not shoddy its an utter disgrace. Regressive politics.

woman12345 · 14/01/2017 09:11

Conscious Cruelty Eeeeeowwwfftz
I'm reading bits of the Hannah Aretz 'Totalitarianism' book, and what little I know about psychology, seems to suggest that the population is being conditioned to accept the worst.
Her husband is ill and they need to stay close to the NHS. Having been an unwaged or barely waged carer for decades, immigration officer Robert Goodwill, who has form for colourful expenses claims while an MEP en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Goodwill, her immigration status may be under threat. They're going after unwaged/ poorly waged carers. Gendered too.

woman12345 · 14/01/2017 09:29

On the 'Today' programme this morning an interviewee, explained why the yellow star his mother had had to make him in war torn Hungary was such a precious artefact.
These newly created 'immigrants' who have lived here for decades, are the yellow star wearers for our time. German Jews were just Germans until they had to wear the stars.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/01/2017 09:31

Why defend Trump ?

I can understand why those who support the far right defend Trump.
I do not understand why some on the left in the UK also keep trying to sweep credible allegations under the carpet.

If there were the slightest allegations after the next GE that May was in cahoots with a foreign government, including hacking the Labour Party, they would be screaming for an enquiry and for May to be replaced.
And that would probably be after a huge victory for May, where embarassing Labour leaks wouldn't have affected the end result.
I can't imagine the fury if the security services leaked an enquiry into Labour, days before a GE, but kept those kinds of secrets about May.

So, why do some on the UK left desperately defend Trump ?

Is this about ideological purity, because the Democrats have moved to the right, this makes them worse than the much harder right GOP ?
e.g. like it is more important to cleanse the Labour party of impure NewLabour remnants rather than to effectively oppose the Tory government now.

Or if it is just about supporting anyone Putin supports, again why ?
Putin heads is clearly on the far right; he runs an oligarchy, he commits mass murderer & torture - there is nothing remotely progressive or egalitarian about him

There are false equivalences:
I was rooting for Bernie, but it is ridiculous to claim Clinton is anywhere near as bad as Trump. She is sane, not beholden to Russia, not a fascist, not an open racist ....
And Obama was a good president, despite Trump's ridiculous birther campaign

Lico · 14/01/2017 09:47

Two interesting articles:

*Spiegel suggests that it is not going to be a bed of roses for Britain or the EU. Relationship between EU and US very strong contrary to what the Anglo-Saxon press describes. Also 20 committees in Brussels had been formed last year to work on different aspects of Brexit.

m.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-1122025.html

*Marine Le Pen. Check out her Early Life. She was a criminal lawyer defending illegal immigrants!

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen

RedToothBrush · 14/01/2017 09:50

Sarah Wollaston MP ‏**@sarahwollaston**
Pretty dismal stuff for govt to scapegoat GPs for very serious NHS pressures. Failure to understand the complexity or own responsibility

Sarah Wollaston not impressed by Theresa May. Remember she's a former GP and a Tory.

One of the replies:
Willshome ‏*@willshome*
@sarahwollaston For goodness sake, cross the floor. The NHS will be gone in five years if you don’t.

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/01/2017 09:51

The easiest part of Brexit should be an agreement on granting permanent residence to UK / EU expats.
It should include:

. deciding the number of qualifying years (3/5/7) and if this is to be counted up to the A50 date
. who pays for health care for pensioners.
Important for all those retired Brits in Spain - currently the nhs repays the host country, ditto for EU expats, but they are mostly working age atm.
. for those not retired, defining the qualifying period for any benefits / WTC, or if this is again the country of which they are a citizen.

A deal on this would probably only fail if May tries to use expats as leverage for something else.

In the meantime, May should call off the official scare tactics against EU citizens in the UK.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/01/2017 09:59

I am baffled by the requirement for private health insurance for EU citizens residing longterm.
I always understand the nhs was for all residents after 3, now 6 months, regardless of citizenship.

In other EU countries, Brits are on the same basis as the natives,
e.g. in Germany I chose to retain my longterm private insurance (mostly in case I return to the UK !), but I could have chosen to pay the monthly contributions and join the German state system.
If I had dependents, I could insure them all similarly.

Also in Germany, since I am privately insured, I pay no state contributions
The EU citizens I knew who are resident in the UK pay the same tax and NI.
So, are some funding a service that they or their family members are not entitled to have ?

RedToothBrush · 14/01/2017 10:17

The Brexit Committee have published their first report:
www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/815/81502.htm

Note the Committee includes high profile Brexiteers including Gove and Raab, so they must have agreed to these findings.

These are some of the bits that jumped out at me.

What the Government needs to do before triggering Article 50

1.Coordinating the policy analysis, putting in place the staff required and ensuring necessary coordination to support the UK’s negotiations to exit the EU and managing and implementing the decisions required to prepare the public service for life outside the EU represent a significant challenge for the civil service. The work required to “deliver Brexit” will be the highest priority across the civil service for some years and it must be properly resourced and structured by Ministers. (Paragraph 21)

2.We welcome early reports of the strength of the team assembled at the Department for Exiting the European Union and the work clearly being undertaken. We also note the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers from his key role as UK Permanent Representative to the EU. We wish his successor, Sir Tim Barrow, well in his challenging new role. We will wish to take evidence on the issues raised in Sir Ivan’s letter. (Paragraph 22)

3.We note that evidence has emerged of the strain that preparation for exiting the EU is placing on Government, not just on the Department for Exiting the EU but on other Departments with responsibilities in “delivering Brexit”. It is essential that all those involved are clear about the objectives. This will be a matter which we, and our counterpart committees, will continue to keep under close watch. (Paragraph 23)

4.It is not yet clear what the long term impact of Brexit will be on civil service headcount, but the additional burden of delivering Brexit and the new functions that the public service will need to take on may well require, at least in the short to medium term, an increase in numbers of civil servants. The Government should also identify where the gaps in the knowledge and experience of the civil service lie and consider bringing in people from a range of backgrounds to ensure that it is up to the task at hand. (Paragraph 24)

Just over two months from when we are due to trigger a50, the Committee are pointing out that we should have adequate staff in place to manage Brexit. At this point we are not in that position and in fact, are really struggling.

If on the 31st March we are still in this position, is May going to still press on regardless despite the Brexit Committee's comments?

6.We welcome the Prime Minister’s assurance that Parliament will have the opportunity to scrutinise the Government’s negotiating plan, but in order to do that the plan must be published in sufficient time before the triggering of Article 50. We therefore expect to see the plan by the middle of February 2017 at the very latest. It should be published in the form of a White Paper given its huge significance, and we will call the Secretary of State to give evidence on it. When the Government does produce its plan, it should declare its position in relation to membership of the Single Market and Customs Union. (Paragraph 38)

White Paper. Middle of Feb Will believe it when I see it.

9.While it is clear that no part of the UK has a veto over the outcome of the negotiations, it is essential that all the devolved governments, and the different regions of England, are duly involved in the process and have their views taken into account. (Paragraph 52)

Well this is a bit of a problem....

The Article 50 negotiation: what will it cover?

13.The Great Repeal Bill will introduce the legislation that ought to provide legal certainty in the UK on the day after Brexit day. EU legislation will be incorporated into UK law and can then be either retained or repealed. Given the significance of the repatriation of legislative competences to the UK for the constitutional make-up of the UK, the Bill will also have implications for the devolution settlement. The Secretary of State must publish this Bill in draft to enable the fullest scrutiny to take place. The Great Repeal Bill, and the procedure with which it is dealt, will need to be consistent with the existing devolution settlement. (Paragraph 71)

The constitutional make up of the UK is going to have to be looked at.

14.The UK’s relationship with the EU is deep and complex, not least in terms of the legal rights of parties in both the UK and the EU-27. It would be unsatisfactory and potentially damaging to both sides were the UK to leave the EU with no agreement having been reached. (Paragraph 76)

Cross party agreement that UKIP's policy on leaving the EU is officially disastrous.

16.It is clearly in everyone’s interests to resolve the position of EU nationals currently in the UK and of UK nationals in other EU member states as quickly as possible so as to provide certainty and reassurance to the individuals, their families and the businesses and services that rely on them. We were struck by the fact that witnesses who were on either side of the referendum debate were unanimous, when asked, in expressing their opinion that EU nationals working in the UK should have their status assured. This must be an early priority for the negotiations. (Paragraph 87)

The No 1 priority.

17.It is essential that closer UK–Irish relations and stability in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement are not jeopardised by the UK’s exit from the EU. The Executive and the Assembly in Northern Ireland should be duly involved at every stage in the process. In the light of current developments in Northern Ireland, a way will have to be found to make this happen. (Paragraph 92)

In the light of current developments in Northern Ireland, a way will have to be found to make this happen.
DELAY A50. YOU KNOW WE HAVE TO FOR NUMEROUS REASONS.

18.It will be essential to maintain cooperation with the other 27 member states on defence, foreign policy, security and the fight against terrorism after the UK has left the EU. This is clearly in the UK’s and EU-27’s mutual interests to do so and the negotiations should ensure that it happens. (Paragraph 99)

Staying in Europe with Defence.

Negotiating the future relationship

22.The Government will undoubtedly be undertaking economic assessments of the different options for market access and trade looking both at risks and opportunities. In the interests of transparency, these should be published alongside the Government’s plan in so far as it does not compromise the Government’s negotiating hand. The UK Government’s negotiating plan should outline its position in relation to membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union. (Paragraph 123)

White paper should include whether we are in or out of the Single Market and Customs Union (In other words, what May has said is NOT clear, despite however many times she tries to say it is, and she is not being transparent).

23.A return to tariffs and other regulatory and bureaucratic impediments to trade would not be in the interests of UK businesses and therefore the Government should strive to ensure that this does not happen. (Paragraph 136)

Is that virtually saying that leaving the Single market and customs union would be a disaster?!

25.Given the importance of the financial services industry to the UK economy in terms of jobs and tax revenues, the Government should seek to ensure continued access to EU markets in financial services for UK providers whether by way of a continuation of passporting or mutual recognition of regulatory equivalence or some other means. What will be important is that the industry has confidence that any new arrangements will enable them to carry on doing business. Both the UK and the EU-27 benefit from the presence in London of a world class financial services hub and ensuring that there is minimal disruption to services from Brexit will be important for broader European financial stability. (Paragraph 143)
Protect the city.

27.The Secretary of State has said that he wants to secure the best possible access for goods and services to the European market. The Prime Minister has made it clear that she places a top priority on controlling the UK’s borders and extricating the UK from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The pronouncements of the EU’s chief negotiators on the indivisibility of the four freedoms seem to indicate that achieving all these objectives will be difficult. (Paragraph 162)

An admission that can not have our cake and eat it... ?

28.A “cliff edge” change in circumstances could be extremely disruptive in some sectors to businesses both in the UK and in the EU 27, whether it be the need to adjust to new provisions for regulatory approval, new customs requirements, or the need to adjust to new costs or restrictions in employing EU workers. The risk of a cliff edge – ie the absence of transitional arrangements – might also push some businesses to pre-empt the result of negotiations and minimise the risks to their business. For some, this could involve re-locating out of the UK or investing elsewhere in future. A period of transition, or adjustment, is a factor in most trade agreements. The Government must make clear from the outset that a period of adjustment to any change in trading arrangements or access to EU markets for UK service industries will be sought as part of the negotiations. (Paragraph 163)

Transition Deal. Transition Deal. We MUST have a transition deal.

31.Although the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 provides the House of Commons with powers to withhold ratification of Treaties, this is not a satisfactory way of dealing with such an important Treaty. We therefore call on the Government to make it clear now that Parliament will have a vote on the Treaty and that the timetable for this vote will allow for proper consideration of any deal that is negotiated. (Paragraph 168)

Parliament should vote on the deal, even if it legally does not have to be consulted. That's one in the eye for May personally who has suggested otherwise.

All in all, report is reasonable and fair and right. Its difficult to argue with unless your name is Nigel, Paul or Arron.

If May does not listen to its recommendations, then there is a going to be one almighty kick off.

I'm pretty satisfied with its comments so far. Well done Mr Benn. Good Work.

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RedToothBrush · 14/01/2017 10:21

So, are some funding a service that they or their family members are not entitled to have ?

That one would be interesting in a court battle....

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