Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Copeland voted 62% for Brexit, which is probably why Guardian sees it as a 3 way split. Could go Conservative if May is judged as doing a good job on Brexit. Could stay Labour if they have a sufficiently Brexit minded candidate. Could go Conservative if enough Labour voters switch to UKIP or Conservative to galvanise Brexit. Seems unlikely Conservatives will switch to UKIP or LibDem and give Labour a free pass. Labour Remainers switching to LibDem or Green would also make Conservative victory more likely.

I think it is significant as in contrast to Richmond and Sleaford this is a traditional Tory versus Labour battle with the potential for Brexit to swing the balance. Depressingly, if I were placing my bets I would say Conservatives will win this one and the PLP will take exactly the wrong message on board.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
If council by-elections have any bearing, only one has been held in the Copeland constituency area since GE2015:

Howgate (Cumbria) result:
LAB - 47.6% (-12.9)
CON - 33.2% (+2.2)
UKIP - 19.2% (+19.2)
LD didn't stand and this was first time UKIP had stood there.

BUT THIS WAS PRE-REFERENDUM (Oct 2015)

2015 GE Result
Lab - 16750 42.26%
Con - 14186 35.8%
UKIP - 6148 13.58%
LD - 1368 3.45%
Green - 1179 2.97%

My suspicion is that this will go Blue as voters don't turn out for Labour and voters look elsewhere. This would mean a greater percentage loss of
the Labour vote than in Sleaford, based on a similar turnout out. If the Labour had a similar percentage drop (7.1%) they would hold on to the seat. Just. By about 400 votes.

A seat on the remote west coast of Cumbria. The constituency is a mixture of hill farming countryside, impressive Lake District wilderness, including Scafell Pike itself, and somewhat economically depressed former mining or iron working towns. The main town is Whitehaven, historically a coal mining town and commercial port, mining ceased in the 1980s.

Time for the alarm bells for Labour though. This is ex-mining country.

It was 59% leave here. I think there is room for a small leave swing here. I think its more likely to go Blue than UKIP though purely through turnout. They are mostly Older Leavers, who might be sympathetic to UKIP but are probably more likely to stick with the Conservatives. There is a large number of retired people and high house ownership levels as well as being ex-mining. Turnout is relatively high here normally.

It only will take a small extra shift from Labour supporters to go Kippery though for Labour to lose the seat, if its similar to Sleaford, but with an added mining town effect.

And I think this is the danger here not Conservatives turning Kippery.

The timing of this by-election could be particularly tricky for Labour too. Its liable to be right after the Supreme Court Ruling. So things could go a little crazy here, and the Conservatives WILL be out in force as it could prove to be a much needed victory and good news for May. They will smell blood here.

I'd put UKIP on getting just over 3000 voters.

As for the Lib Dems. They got 4300 votes or 10% in 2010. I suspect LDs will turn out and it will look got for them, like in Sleaford, but that's about it. This is not their home turf. I reckon they will be up to perhaps 6 or 7%. (A similar effect to Sleaford would put them on 8.75%, so I think 6 - 7% is a reasonable target. Anything above that should be considered a decent result).

My prediction for result each party around these percentages: Con 40% Lab 33% UKIP 15% LD 7% GREEN 3%

I don't think there is enough movement there for UKIP to get second though.

I noticed yesterday a load of money went on Corbyn leaving before the next general election last week. It is currently at 44% chance he will. That's the most likely its been since he was re-elected.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is just the first resignation like this.

Labour are not going to have a good start to the year...

Important YouGov Survey, about how Father Christmas would have voted in the EU Ref:
yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/20/father-christmas-green-voter/

63% of the overall population say he would have voted Remain. (This breaks down to 54% of Remainers saying Remain, 3% saying he would vote Leave, 21% saying he wouldn't vote and 22% say don't know versus 9% of Leavers saying he'd vote remain, 37% saying he would vote Leave, 31% saying he wouldn't vote and 23% saying they don't know)

He's also apparently a green according to 30% of all voters.

If the bar for Labour is set at "not coming fifth" as in the Sleaford by-election, then your predictions are very complimentary, Red.

Your Copeland analysis is very much in line with mine Red. Does make me wonder what the anti-Corbyn Labour MPs have as an alternative suggestion?

Santa doesn't recognise internal trading markets and arrangements - definitely a Leaver and probably Green since magic reindeer have a much lower carbon footprint than aeroplanes.

Interesting piece on Mandelson's current thinking on the EU stance on FoM.

"Mandelson said: “The commission is already giving member states greater control over social security payments to EU migrants. The freedom to move is not the same as the right to settle, as I was told in one EU national capital the other week.” ..... The EU commission a fortnight ago proposed new restrictions on access to social security benefits, including a statement that no migrant should have a “legal right to residence” if they were not working or actively looking for a job."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/21/mandelson-says-uk-could-broaden-brexit-negotiating-strategy

Dangerous Extremists ?

Can someone explain to me why this is happening ?
I'm no Green supporter, but I don't think the public are in danger from organic yoghurt-weavers ...

A secretive police unit tasked with spying on alleged extremists intent on committing serious crimes has been monitoring leading members of the Green Party,
including Caroline Lucas (MP) and Sian Berry (candidate for London mayor)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/police-anti-extremism-unit-monitoring-green-party-caroline-lucas-sian-berry

(I wonder if they are monitoring Farage or just anyone left of Theresa )

Meanwhile, it seems two fingers to the Irish as well ...

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/status-of-irish-in-britain-could-change-says-theresa-may-1.2913456#.WFpc5OkLA4c.twitter

Theresa May has declined to rule out a change in the status of Irish nationals living in Britain, suggesting the issue is part of a broader negotiation about the rights of EU citizens after Brexit. After Britain leaves the EU, it will be free to choose what rights to offer Irish citizens in the UK, including a continuation of the current arrangement under which they have most of the same rights as British citizens.

(contd)

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/copeland-by-election/

However, newly-elected Ukip leader Paul Nuttall has ruled himself out as his party's candidate, insisting he wants to focus his attentions on rebuilding Ukip.

Mr Reed's resignation has fueled speculation that Ed Balls could run for the seat and make a return to politics.

Twitter seem to be speculating that UKIP might not stand a candidate due to lack of funds.

Opening betting:
5/4 Conservatives
6/4 Labour
4/1 UKIP
12/1 Lib Dem

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
In theory, current national polling should make Copeland winnable for Cons, but governing parties almost never win seats at by elections...

Even though its a by-election, anything BUT a Tory win is a bad result for May.

Lots at stake here. Also being pointed out that Tiny Tim lives next door.

Re Ireland, I suspect that May for once is actually just stating fact (not meaningless platitudes). With Ireland being in the EU and the UK out, there will need to be some rethinking. One might try to contrast it with Norway vs. Sweden and Denmark, who have traditionally had close relationships, but Norway is in the EEA and all are in Schengen, so the comparison doesn't hold.

The idea of N Irish having to have passports to come to the rest of the UK to me, sounds like the death knell of the United Kingdom of GB & NI. I am not a betting person, but I think we could see a united Ireland within 10 years (maybe 5, to coincide with the 100th anniversary of founding of the republic?)

Either a united Ireland or more Troubles.

Big Choc that article is from Apr 2016. So not new.

I don't think the lentil weavers are the problem. There are extremist views around the greens as well as Corbyn's section of Labour.

Putting the devil's advocate hat on:

I don't think the Green Party leaders are in any way involved, but don't forget animal rights activists often come from that part of the political spectrum. And Greenpeace.

They do not always act within the law.

When reflecting on it now, it has different overtones and concerns from when the article was originally written though. I do not see any reason why Green's leaders should be targeted personally.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2809076-Westministenders-The-Stage-is-set-for-a-New-Act-Boris-and-friends-hit-2017?watched=1

New thread now live

Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick
Copeland could well be first by-election GAINED by a governing party since the Tories won Mitcham & Morden in 1982 - 35 years ago

I am curious about where the traditional antipathy of the Unionist NI population to a united Ireland stands relative to the expressed desire to continue in the EU ...

WRT Ireland there was talk before Brexit of an inter EU challenge on the British-Irish agreements, as it technically favoured one nation over the others. I suspect a fall out from Brexit, should we continue with the CTA agreement, will be that challenge being made and possibly ROI being forced out of it (largely because unless things go very tits up for the EU, then ROI get more from being in it that they do from us).

The traditional hardline Unionist vote (DUP) in NI was pro Brexit for the most part. NI as a whole voted to Remain; Remainers included more moderate Unionists. Hence tension in NI.

Theresa May seems to make a habit of gratuitously offending and causing consternation. There are millions of Irish living in the UK, not to mention those in NI who legally hold Irish passports as opposed to UK passports and would bitterly resent having to apply for a UK passport either because of Brexit and a retooling* of the Ireland-UK relationship or because of some ID scheme.

*Retooling apparently means dismantling the Good Friday Agreement, a horrific prospect to nationalists and most likely moderate unionist opinion (and business interests) in NI and probably to most of Ireland too.

I do not think TM has the deftness of touch needed to handle NI. We have already seen what looked like the start of a cosy relationship between her and Arlene Foster (hardline Unionist) at the Tory party conference, which was most unfortunate. It took decades of work and the involvement of both the EU and the backing of the US government (and the personal involvement of Senator George Mitchell and his staff) to lay aside the suspicion of the nationalists in NI that some parties in NI were more equal than others when it came to the relationship with Westminster. A policy of divide and conquer in NI will not work at all because it would represent a return to the days of Unionist supremacy, which nobody but the hardline Unionists thinks of as a good thing.