Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Sapphire, I think that worry is partly justified, but also depends on what actually happens at the Supreme Court.

It could backfire for the government too yet.

They are committed to this date of 31st March. What happens if they come back and say they must pass the 'Great' Repeal Act first and it must be approved by the devolved assemblies first somehow and amend the devolution acts appropriately.

Even if the assemblies were more supportive of the government than they are, if the Supreme Court only come back in late Jan, then the pressure is on the government to rethink their whole approach and present this to Labour (who will want no later than Feb went Corbyn is off to discuss with his Socialist allies in Europe - and the Conservatives could actually do with him being able to talk them around to the British POV in order to get a good deal for their own political objectives) and also get the legislation through.

And if the 'Great' Repeal Act and Devolution problems are there, then this really isn't going to be 31st March.

It then turns on its head, with Labour able to say 'well you told us March and we supported that and you are the ones not planning / frustrating the process, why are you not delivering Brexit quickly enough, we support Brexit and triggering a50' etc etc. Thus heading off UKIP criticism to a degree.

It could be a trap for May and a way of deflecting UKIP criticism.

Until the court rules we don't know which way its likely to go.

BUT Keir Starmer is a lawyer and I think this is worth pointing out. Maybe not a constitutional lawyer but a human rights lawyer. It could well be a calculated gamble on that basis.

May's track record on legalities, is questionable to say the least. It certainly does not seem to be her strength, when it quite clearly is Starmer's...

Shamelessly placemarking. Thanks as always, Red.

I also think some of the reporting is the fact that the whole by-election was massively hyped in advance, the result turned out to be nothing spectacular but the media needs some sort of hook and Labour is an easy target.

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Ian Dunt ‏@IanDunt
If there's a solution to Lab's Brexit problem it's about focusing on economic tests. That's the 'show don't tell' of Starmer's 100% rhetoric

Yes, Red, very good points. Starmer is my personal great white hope at the moment.

Many thanks as usual Red and to those contributing. These threads are really thought provoking and insightful and I'm sure there are many like me reading and thinking even if we are not posting regularly.

Many thanks also EmilyAlice for the Alastair Campbell link. Really interesting thoughts on communication and messaging from someone who knows all about spin.

Couple of thoughts.

The not even considered by the High Court impact on the Devolution settlement and the whole UK Constitution is why I think the Supreme Court may well rule for the Government. The more areas of the UK Constitution are dragged in and affected by what increasingly looks like a point of Parliamentary procedure than substance the stronger the argument Lord Eadie made that Parliament can look after itself becomes. It is not for the Courts to be dictating to the Legislature. This is what I meant by my offhand comment about the Wee girl who swallowed a Midgie (Art50) only to find herself swallowing a Nessie (the Royal Prerogative) to get rid of it. she had to swallow the whole Loch (the entire UK Constitution) to flush the Nessie (a very elusive beast) out and with it Art50.

On farm worker I can no longer suspend my disbelief that anyone thinks farming economics in the EU has anything to do with employing workers! It is all about EU grants and subsidy - farming does not finance farms and the system is deliberately set up to ensure that is the case atm. The UK could let migrant workers pick fruit or post EU it could re-engineer land management grants, which is what AL is already discussing with the industry.

The Alistair Campbell piece (to me) was just full of his usual spin.

This as his concluding para particularly sticks in my throat:

"So never stop fighting for what you believe in. Never stop calling out the lies and the excesses. And never stop reminding David Cameron that his referendum was a very very bad idea, the consequences of which will be with us for a long time, all of which makes me very angry that the ambitions and needs of my children’s generation have been thwarted by the shortsightedness, the fake nostalgia, the loss of historical perspective of our generation, gleefully exploited by the charlatans who led the campaign and the tax-dodging or foreign media barons who so happily and so loudly banged their drums"

All hail Alistair, who conveniently finesses out the fact that the thwarting began & the rot became commonplace, during his and Tone's glory days - with their sofa culture and obsession with shmoozing the Cool Brittania celebs of the day.

In that whole thing, he misses the actual point as ever - too obsessed with his own hype.

I found Tony Blair's précis of the whole Brexit / Trump situation far more accurate & honest.

Mango Labour backbencher just been on Daily Politics talking about LP's disconnectedness and backing JC as a means to reconnect.

Throwing insults at the TV as Polly and Snow Jnr slap themselves on the back at fleecing youngsters into giving unregulated crowd sourced political donations to any charlatan who self defines as "progressive" outside the democratic process.

DC speech (on bbc newsfeed) talking about the need to address the EU question in a referendum because of the disconnect with the electorate. Also talking about the need to address the "left behind". First time I have agreed with him in a very very long time.

Mother so was Peter Mandelson still right to be "intensely relaxed" at the unregulated stinking rich getting ever richer as long as there were a few crumbs for the masses?

Actually, I thought the strongest part of the AC piece was in the middle, talking about how language, slogans and storytelling framed the American elections and the results.

The last para is a bit of a bolt on and obviously he had to get his digs in at the end and is a bit too quick to point to Cameron's legacy - probably thinking of how his own successes are going to be totally overshadowed by his Iraq activity .

It seems to be a day for commenting on the mote in your brother's eye whilst ignoring the plank in your own. I happen to agree with every word in that last sentence of the Campbell piece but agree it is a bit rich when it is coming from one of the people who gave the media barons a place at the table in the first place. However always interesting to hear from a poacher turned gamekeeper.

David Cameron has been at it as well. Defending the decision to call the referendum because the EU . "was actually beginning to poison British politics - it was certainly poisoning politics in my own party." That is the one certainty www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38261534 .

There is also a conspicuous focus on America and the UK as the centre of a movement of "unhappiness" with globalisation. Erm, actually significant as they are, or at least the US is, on the world stage, at the moment the populism that we have seen in Brexit and Trump is not worldwide at all. Alongside Merkel standing for Liberal values in Europe, you could list the people quietly getting behind nationalist agendas for economic growth in China and whatever Putin is aiming for in Russia with little sign of opposition parties gaining traction there, the people of both the the ASEAN and Mercosur countries quietly getting behind their shared economic goals and other values, the people of India focusing on economic growth too and a host of other cultural economic and political scenarios playing out in the countries across the globe. If Brexit and Trump could be seen as an emergence of a nationalistic unhappiness with globalisation then quite a large part of the rest of the world could be said to not actually be more or less unhappy than they have always been and to be actually embracing the opportunities it offers. The thing about globalisation is that it is global and I doubt it is a coincidence that the whinging is coming from two countries who once enjoyed a global hegemony. It could be that if Trump avoids starting a world war with either China or Russia (China I think will out manoeuvre him but I don't hold out much hope for a bromance between two narcissists) this moment in history might be the time that populism and "unhappiness" led the US and UK on the road to economic and political isolationism and irrelevance.......

Red I don't think you should start embracing the "echo chamber" rhetoric out of the Brexit lexicon any more than "virtue signalling" "traitors" "thick racists" "elites" etc. I am very grateful that you research and analyse the significant sources and put them out here for debate. I have learnt a lot and it has provoked me to think about the issues, I suspect a lot of other people lurk and learn and think as a result too. There is reasoned debate on here, usually without the name calling and resorting to sad tribal stereotypes that so much debate was descending into in the days after the referendum. That is quite an achievement in itself, certainly not the mark of an echo chamber.

"was actually beginning to poison British politics
Possibly, but I don't recall any debate about this in the Labour party.

- it was certainly poisoning politics in my own party."
Most definitely, and that was the driving force for the Referendum. It destroyed Major, and destroyed him, and there is still a good chance of destroying May too.

[empty space]
Yup, that last bit is right, - big silence on whether it was affecting the country or not.

[Our austerity policies, 'we are all in this together', whilst coining it ourselves.]

Yes, another big silence. If he goes down in history as the man who destroyed the economy and broke up the UK, then I won't be shedding any tears for him.

Sapphire - I'd personally be very upset if Boris Johnson was sacked for saying what any right-minded person thinks and says quite freely about Saudi Arabia. It's the first time I've agreed with him ever in a very long time.

Guy Verhofstadt, the EU's chief negotiator, has included the idea of individual EU citizenship in his mandate.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-keep-freedom-of-movement-guy-verhofstadt-chief-negotiator-opt-in-passports-a7465271.html?cmpid=facebook-post

One possible catch "Depending on the approach taken by EU negotiators, the idea would likely be subject to approval by the British government."

Am I the only one to be quite sad about the Brexit vite in Parliament where the motion was voted by 448 MPs to 75?

It seems that the huge pressure put on the MPs put to 'follow the will of the people' has been so strong that these MPs have felt they couldn't actually represent the wishes of their own constituencies (at 52% vote for Brexit, there should have been many more MPs voting against no?)

It is making me feel so uneasy becaus these are the people who should represent us. When it will come to voting what sort of Brexit we want (if it ever happens!), how much say will they have? Or is it an issue with following the party Laine being more important than representing yu R constituency?

Sorry going a bit on a tangent there.

Thank you, RTB.

I'm still hoping that our year of madness will end on 31 Dec 2016 and sense will prevail on 1 January 2017. Yup I'm overdosing on unicorns and everlasting cake.

lala, I don't think he's wrong. I just think that something he could say as a journalist is not appropriate for a senior ambassadorial member of a country's government to be saying.

Given that the UK is going to brown-nose even more to regimes like Saudi Arabia if we no longer have the same access to the single market, BoJo is being very unwise even if he's correct in what he said.

As far as BoJo is concerned - I am glad he has spoken out on this issue. It's good to see someone take a principled stance instead of turning a blind eye to vicious regimes because we can sell arms to them.

If May doesn't like what he says, she should sack him. Gove is out of a job and doesn't seem to have too many moral principles, so he could replace him.

I agree it's embarrassing for our government but I don't think he's wrong to say it. On the plus side, it will make his visit to Saudi (today?) deliciously awkward.

I don't think we disagree, lala; I would just put it the other way round.

If May doesn't like what he says, she should sack him. This I very much agree with, and generally, not just on the Saudi issue –surely she's sick of having to slap down her Foreign Secretary what seems like every day?

I don't think we are in the position we are in because of the Blair govt.

We are in the position we are precisely as a result of the Blair govt, and all govts since.

The last para is a bit of a bolt on and obviously he had to get his digs in at the end and is a bit too quick to point to Cameron's legacy - probably thinking of how his own successes are going to be totally overshadowed by his Iraq activity .

YY.
What I particularly found offensive was that his digs were aimed about 'his children's generation's future being ruined'.
As someone who has had first hand contact with, and experience of the disgusting murderous & life changing legacies of him and his pal Tony he has a cheek, quite frankly.
A generation of young men, women and the children/extended families of those people that were little more than stats & collateral damage to Tony & Campbell et al.

I spent weeks at a H4H centre as part of my resettlement, where I saw the aftermath of the devastation that they had wreaked.