Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Indeed Peregrina - it makes no sense at all (except in the territorial world of Whitehall) to separate out post 16 provision like that. And as you say, this is the long neglected area that is ripe for improvement - and fast

Very pleased to see Michael Sheen coming back to Wales to campaign against Brexit and current politics.
We shouldn't underestimate the potential of a sincere, wise, committed and honourable person to influence people and start change. There aren't enough of these folks around in politics and it's easy to tell them apart from the self-serving, and the frankly stupid.

I love Michael Sheen but he did tweet this earlier.

michael sheen ‏@michaelsheen 2h2 hours ago
Before this gets ridiculous I said I'm thinking I might start acting less and maybe even stop for a while at some point but don't know yet.

Really good article;

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/18/brexit-leavers-fear-their-lies-will-haunt-them

Not a 'really good' article at all tbh.
Little more than an overly emotive puff piece, with no real content - trying desperately to ascribe certain attitudes & rhetoric to all Leavers, as one homogeneous blob.

It's no different to when the Daily Mail does the same with Remain voters & supporters.

"...Why in these circumstances are Leavers angry? What the hell do they have to be angry about? A part of the answer is that raging is all the poor dears can do..."

"...Why are the Leave campaigners so angry? Because they fear the demagogic rage and charlatan tricks they have used against others will one day be used against them..."

I'd say its a fair observation of the last 6 months. And the cognitive dissonance to come.

I think the Guardian article missing a bit at the end. If we go over a cliff it won't just be the Frenach and Germans who will get the blame, a number of Leave voters will blame Remainers for not getting behind Brexit and talking the country down. Actually that should be 'continue to blame Remainers' .

As somebody who voted remain, I agree with Mango. If a 'Leaver' is somebody who voted Leave, they weren't in a position to 'lie' anymore than people who voted remain. It's also pretty obvious that people voted both ways for many different reasons and they aren't all angry.

Maybe Nick Cohen is focusing on his Twitter comments or particular Leave politicians and journalists who have argued with him. The article would make more sense with more examples and more focus and more differentiation between particular politicians and the 17 million people who voted Leave.

The article would make more sense with more examples and more focus and more differentiation between particular politicians and the 17 million people who voted Leave.

and yet surveys tend to be denounced as samples, not reflective of everyone etc.

I don't think he should have commissioned a survey on Leave voters being angry. I think his article would have made more sense if it had focused on comments made by actual Leave campaigners and the Daily Mail etc.

I live in a strongly 'Leave' constituency. My neighbours aren't stomping around muttering about 'remoaners' and the local paper is concerned with the same local issues it was concerned about 2 years ago which have nothing to do with Europe, and really, really nothing to do with the concerns of somebody in Port Talbot (unless they are a potential tourist next summer).

Similarly, on MN there seem to be two long running threads about Brexit and hundreds of threads about MILs. I suspect that its possible to over estimate the general interest and emotional involvement in Brexit.

And I like Nick Cohen - it's just that this column seems a bit churned out.

I suspect that its possible to over estimate the general interest and emotional involvement in Brexit.

This is an interesting point. I'm a bit miffed that an EU referedum section has been set up as it, by default brushes it under the MN carpet. When a Brexit thread pops up in AIBU there is usually a poster complaining about not wanting to see it and getting it moved over to this forum. Of course when the affects of Brexit hit I'll expect threads on AIBU such as "why has my food bill gone up?", "why has this legislation been scrapped?" etc. Its very easy to say the vote was 6 months ago get over it but its only just begun.

I agree Merry. I think there are probably quite a lot of people who voted either way who didn't have strong views either way.

Interestingly, from my perspective, the remain voters who were slightly disengaged in June are increasingly passionate about getting s good deal / soft Brexit. It does look a little bit round here as though TM's conference speech galvanised opposition in a way the referendum itself didn't particularly. That may well be my bubble though!

I agree unicorns

I think there's a lot of middle grounders out there who voted either way (or possibly didn't vote at all) on the premise that we would still have single market access even if the vote went leave. I know a few people who are very shocked at the hard brexit path we seem to be taking but weren't overly enthused either way during the referendum.

I suspect we hear more from those who voted remain in these circumstances because they're more aggrieved now, whereas leave voters or non voters may feel more they made their own beds.

My experience is that there are a lot of people who are extremely concerned about the practical implications of brexit, but who are not politically active and not very present on social media because they have busy lives and don't have time for it.

This would include almost all of my colleagues, many of whom are natural Tory voters (or centrist swing voters, in the department where I work which has a history of being a hotbed of radical centrism in a mainly Tory voting environment). Everyone is worried about brexit, but no one knows what they can do about it - in fact many I think feel thoroughly disenfranchised and don't feel that there is any way of getting their voices heard. And since most have demanding jobs as well as families, the tendency is to put their heads down and hope against hope that something positive can be salvaged.

Many are concerned about the future of their jobs, working for a multinational whose UK business is overwhelmingly EU focussed (since our US and Asian business is largely run from local subsidiaries) and extremely dependent on being in the single market from both a regulatory (country of origin rules) and a practical (JIT deliveries) point of view.

Meanwhile, Farage was on the BBC - Broadcasting House today - again!

I wish to God the BBC would no-platform Farage.
I have always detested the man but his "you've never had a proper job" rant at the European Parliament and his calling Obama a "disgusting creature" (I think those were his words) really brought it home to me that he is a genuinely despicable piece of work. It's baffling how well he covers it up and can present as a normal person rather than a seething cauldron of hatred, spite and bile.

I saw his response to the increase in hate crimes was to say that he'd had 10 death threats. if you incite hate you are going to get it back. Not that death threats are ever an acceptable form of retaliation but it shows the sheer incredulousness.

I wish to God the BBC would no-platform Farage.

I wish that the 'no platforming' stuff would stop tbh.

How can you debate, pull apart holes in people's arguments and show them up if you no platform everyone?

But do you not think Mango, that Farage is getting undue exposure? His position is as an MEP. He's not the only UKIP MEP. He's no longer party leader, he hasn't so far been able to win a seat in Westminster, so why is he getting so much prominence? Why not use other MEPs as spokespeople for UKIP or Carswell?

I actually have a modicum of respect for Carswell, because when he changed sides he was prepared to go back to the electorate and risk losing his seat. Few MPs in that position bother.

I agree about no platforming being bad, but how do you have a serious debate with Farage? Does he represent the views of most Leavers? I thought the general feeling was that he doesn't? Wouldn't it be more helpful at this point to stop rerunning the referendum and listen to people who actually have something intelligent to say?

I don't particularly want Farage no-platformed, as vile and inflammatory as he may be. But proportionate platforming would be good. The amount of exposure he and his kippers have had on the BBC is completely insane.

He is massively overexposed, yes.
But he keeps getting invited back.

The people they pit 'against' him are also weak and a bit shit (the last QT he was on for example).
The problem is not just with him, but the lack of credible & capable opposition to him.

Recently, Alan Johnson, Andy Burnham, Len McClusky & others have been finally vocalising the concerns that drove many to vote Leave - how uncontrolled immigration has had a negative effect on the low/no skilled & blue collar workforce.

Prior to the ref it was pretty much Nigel Farage alone that said these things - hence people felt he was 'their voice' against the system which was ignoring them (and calling them bigots & racists).

I saw his response to the increase in hate crimes was to say that he'd had 10 death threats.

Still just made it about him to avoid the real point being made.

Farage was a single issue politician who turned his dream of Brexit into a political reality. He set the agenda years ago, he forced the agenda, he achieved his agenda.

What he has achieved is immense and so of course he deserves to be listened to.

When it comes to leaving the EU - this is Farage's work: we don't ignore the suffragettes when we talk about women's vote, we don't ignore Martin Luther King when we talk about civil rights, we don't ignore Gandhi when we talk about Indian independence.

A few leavers on Mumsnet saying 'he doesn't speak for me' is meaningless. There would be no brexit without Farage.

listen to people who actually have something intelligent to say? That would be nice, but, who for example?