Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

I do know plenty of people who have done that Mango through the open university, the continuing education college at Oxford and similar offered by other universities etc. or Birkbeck. There are more flexible ways of accumulating the credits for a degree. However I am sure traditional university degree courses do offer the benefit of immersion in your subject, that is actually most important in STEM subjects because if you take breaks it can be hard to regain that understanding of the more complicated concepts. I have taken two year long breaks in my career for academic study that helped equip me for my day job.

I do think vocational training should have more status and as I say a proper framework conferred by the government in the same way as academic study. However it should be horses for courses, so that people can take the route that is right for them with no implication that one route is better than the other.

I do think vocational training should have more status and as I say a proper framework conferred by the government in the same way as academic study.

I so agree. People are so sniffy about B TECS for example, without really knowing the first thing about them.

There have been a number of good reports commissioned, which would have gone some way to implementing vocational reforms, but Goverments, both Tory and Labour, just don't want to know. E.g. there was the Tomlinson report in 2004 - Blair was hung up on the Gold standard of A levels and that was the end of it.

And as for the latest offering from the Dept of Education, don't let me get started - Technical and Vocational education didn't even get a mention.

The problem is that getting a degree now involves large debt, which is a cruel con if it doesn't give a good chance at paying for itself.
If you come from a v poor family, as I did, you don't take on debt for airy fairy stuff, you only do so if it is a safe financial investment.

In fact, I would definitely NOT have attended Uni if it meant ANY debt - I was already under great social pressure to get a job instead at 18 and support my mum (disabled widow, v low income, struggling to stay afloat)

Fortunately, when I went to Uni, 1970s - early 80s, my fees were paid in full and I received an adequate grant for living expenses.
That was Bsc, MSc, PhD: I deliberately chose very different content with each qualifications, while staying within my broad field, because I realised that "jobs for life" would be no more.
So my degrees & years of study have given me financial benefit and many more career options.
Crucially, I left uni with NO debt; in fact I had savings from holiday jobs. Plus those 3 STEM degrees.

Imo, free uni education and basic living grants are essential to stop inequality increasing even further.
Also, cut down the over-supply of degrees. So that it isn't a basic entry barrier to jobs; when I left school, teens could start decent careers with 1-2 A levels and they could expect to buy their own homes before they were 30.
German firms still provide many apprenticeships, which are a gateway to decent jobs. Why can't the UK ?

Bright but v poor kids like I was are just not getting the career chances that I had.
That's not just tragic; it's also dangerous politically. Did those families vote in desperation, just for any change, to have chances like my generation ?

I think the opinion of vocational training is shifting now, especially since the Coalition government fees debacle.

I grew up in the era where you were supposed to go to university. You were told you wouldn't get a decent job if you didn't. I suppose in some ways that was true, there are far more of my similarly aged working colleagues who have degrees than those who worked their way up from the bottom and/or did on the job training. Though that could be because we were all 'meant' to get degrees so we duly did. Having said that I have seen very able people who didn't get degrees turned down from interoffice jobs because a different not as experienced applicant had a degree and often wouldn't be as good as the non degreed colleague would have been in the role.

I don't really want my DC to attend university now unless they have a clear idea of the career they'd like. I'd rather they weren't saddled with debt just for a concept that a degree is better. There are also a fair few on the job whilst getting a recognised qualification (including degrees) out there. I know I'm not alone in that view within my peer set.

My DPs think this is an awful view though, and BTECs are a waste etc, when they themselves don't have degrees. I did spit my tea out when my vote leave/ukip supporting father asked why I wouldn't want my DC to have the same opportunities as I did with no idea of the irony.

Sorry
when they themselves don't have degrees
and did pretty well without them.

OU also now more of an undertaking since increases in fees, and there have been cuts to adult education, making it more difficult to train/educate yourself on the job.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/26/adult-education-funding-cuts?client=safari

Education in its entirety is ballsed up now with all the piecemeal changes.

I would dearly like to see it removed from political interference and reevaluated properly & sensibly.

Mango Yes to that. Politicians have done enormous harm with their meddling and ignored and devalued the status of the professionals in the process. This was sent by a local Head to the DofE pointing out local schools are on a cliff edge not just because of cuts but also the effects of all the piecemeal changes especially in terms of teacher development and training. I would add School place planning to that as well. School place shortages were often mentioned in the context of the EU vote but they should be laid firmly at the door of the government's mess of a strategy. www.richardchalloner.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Statement-of-Concern-8-12-16.pdf

I have to say that my current experience is that students from poor backgrounds are still going to unversiy in spite of fees. Both my DDs have many friends who come from families firmly in the just managing, or even not managing, category. With part time work, bursaries (quite a few universities give these automatically) and scholarships they do manage financially. I think schools do a much better job these days of encouraging clever pupils to go for it. Though teacher friends do despair of some of the choices made, often a failure of aspiration, and going for vocational courses at less prestigious universities when they could have got into more prestigious courses at "top" universities (whatever that means, but eg MFL at Oxbridge)

I certainly don't think the frustration with the challenging world the millennials face in any way shaped the Leave vote, quite the opposite, most young people did vote remain, and in my experience that was from all backgrounds. The Leave vote has added to their frustrations and the reality that they really are the left behind......

More up to date worries about China

Trump may be sending out inflammatory, and misspelt, tweets about China issues to exploit nationalist feelings in the US and distract attention from the issues about Russian intervention in the election, and his business interests. Or maybe he thinks he is building up the bargaining chips to gain economic advantage. Obama is warning him that it is dangerous.

“The idea of ‘One China’ is at the heart of their conception as a nation,” Obama said, “and so if you are going to upend this understanding, you have to have thought through what are the consequences.

“Because the Chinese will not treat that the way they will treat some other issues. They won’t even treat it the way they treat issues around the South China Sea, where we have had a lot of tensions. This goes to the core of how they see themselves and their reaction on this issue could end up being very significant.”

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/17/donald-trump-china-unpresidented-act-us-navy-drone

And this is the background to how dangerous, an article quoting many experts from all sides, though that expert advice is unlikely to reach Trump's ears.

www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2055302/are-trumps-america-and-xis-china-collision-course

Obama also said it would be good to have fresh eyes on foreign policy.

However, the thing that concerns me about Trump is that his approach to deal making is very slash and burn. He doesn't mind if his customers are unsatisfied. He just finds more customers.

That can work in a relatively small business, but China aren't going anywhere.

It's not clear how much Trump understands the difference between running a business and running a country.

However, this an interesting article on Israel and foreign policy, particularly the conclusion on how much Trump matters:

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump_daily_bankruptcy_israel_ambassador_david_friedman/amp?client=safari

It concludes:

“What can you say about Trump?” Avishai Margalit, an Israeli philosopher and co-founder of Peace Now, told me. “Everything is an outlier. No one can predict anything. It’s not as if there is a deviation and you try to explain it. Everything is a deviation. You cannot rationalize it. It’s a family business, and they treat the White House as a family business, like Don Corleone. He doesn’t feel that he has to please anybody. You bully everyone and see what happens. The only thing you can say about Friedman’s appointment is that it’s not as if some other Ambassador would make a big difference. It doesn’t matter. There is no peace process, though Friedman may escalate things. The Palestinians have given up in any case. They have lost hope in any solution, and this is another nail in the coffin.”

ThNk you Ron for articulating my thoughts so well.

Why should children from poorer backgrounds be made to go down the vocational path though? That way we end up with the arts dominated btpy the wealthy, bit like acting is at the moment.

Why should children from poorer backgrounds be made to go down the vocational path though?

Did anyone here mention poor children and vocational education? I think not, but sadly, the two have become synonymous. What it really needs is it being acceptable for children from top academic schools to take up apprenticeships. I can't see that happening in a hurry.

The schools are partly to blame themselves. Even with academic paths they are hung up on Oxbridge or Russell Group. For some subjects other universities are the leaders in the field e.g. think of Reading and Meteorology, or somewhere like Bangor and Marine Biology. Imagine if someone from Eton said that they wanted to do a plumbing apprenticeship!

merrie One of the experts in the article says as much in terms of Trump being interesting as a potential paradigm shifter. The Chinese will understand mobilising people behind a nationalist agenda, it is one of their main tools for hanging on to power. It might even play into their hands to be able to be seen as the defenders of the One China policy, at a time when the leadership is becoming more hardline. The previous partially successful policy of trying to lure Taiwan with the example of Hong Kong by respecting it's institutions under one country two systems has clearly been abandoned. It is just that should the two superpowers go head to head I think both will stop short of economic damage to themselves but the people of both Taiwan and Hong Kong could suffer. Very worrying for the people of the other Asian and ASEAN countries too, that hoped for some measure of defence from being dominated by China from a US ally. No wonder Japan were first to knock on the door of Trump Tower.

Peregrina - the reason DfE documents don't talk about vocational training is probably because responsibility for that sits with BIS (DfE has responsibility for sixth forms, BIS has all other post-16 education and training.... Go figure....)

Further to the discussion of technical and academic opportunities in higher education -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutes_of_technology_in_Ireland
A brief and very poorly punctuated history of Ireland's former Regional Technical Colleges (now Institutes of Technology).

Most applications to higher education in Ireland are processed by the Central Applications Office, including applications to the Institutes of Technology. It is a great leveler.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Applications_Office

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Technology,_Carlow
The scope and impact of one particular Institute.

Peregrina I am not sure that is true. I think the really successful independent schools pride themselves on supporting pupils in achieving their ambitions, and they can afford to be a little more relaxed about their leaver's destinations too. It may be unlikely given family background but if a pupil had a vocation to be a plumber, or more likely gardener, carpenter, sound engineer (all of which are examples from experience), then I think they would get support. It is certainly true of those wanting to go to art, music or drama school.

It is more likely, but not only, to be a state school trying to funnel able pupils into the best universities to improve their leaver's stats, and to have an irrational obsession with trying to get pupils to apply to Russell Group universities because they think it looks better on their marketing, when there are so many examples of there being better courses at non Russell Group universities.

For the same reasons most independent schools positively discourage pupils from taking more than 10 GCSEs and 3/4 A levels when many state schools, especially TMs beloved Grammar Schools, will throw able pupils under an unnecessary bus of sitting 15 GCSEs and 5 A levels.

www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2016/12/17/michael-sheen-quits-acting-fight-far-right-populism/
Michael Sheen quits acting to become activist in fight against far-Right populism

Has anyone seen Sheen's documentary work on the crap that's gone on with the steel industry? Its been superb. He's from Port Talbot and has tried to promote the problems of the area. I'm not sure if it was only broadcast on BBC Wales or was broadcast nationally (I watched it on iplayer).

This is exactly what is needed. Yes he is liberal elite, however he really does understand local issues and fuck me he's done something about actual problems and political/social issues. Which is more than kippers have done really as all they do is identity politics.

I'm really pleased to see this.

I am too. I live in the area and pass the steelworks every day on my commute and I can say that Stephen Kinnock being parachuted into the constituency went down like a lead balloon with many of the people I know.

Michael Sheen is very popular in the area, rightfully so. Watch his Easter Passion play if you can, it's marvellous.

I have a longtime crush on Michael Sheen. He just always comes across as a really genuine, funny guy. I even liked him in his tiny shorts, playing Brian clough

The Easter passion play was fantastic.

I realise the word Easter is redundant there

ron - yes I can accept your point about the top flight independent schools being more open to alternative paths for their students, and less so the Grammar schools, or, I suspect, a tier of independents below Eton.

Olennas - I hadn't stopped to think that the DfE only looked after 6th forms and not other post 16 FE providers, although I probably should have realised that. That tells you its own story, doesn't it? This is the area which desperately needs a proper review. (Or proper reviews need acting upon, instead of being constantly ignored.)

peregrina - the partner who supervised me when I was first training had two boys at Eton. One's a plumber, one is a plasterer. I think though Erin use it as a way of demonstrating they're about the individual rather than the results, whereas other schools don't have that luxury.