Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

The internet wasn't widely used in offices till the very late 90's, and the iPhone was only invented 8 years ago.

The very late 90s was nearly 20 yrs ago...
(It comes as a shock to me regularly tbh, I still live in 1999 quite happily )

I think that would depend on which "offices" you were talking about merrymouse, but even taking the late nineties as a date that would still mean everyone who has retired in the last 18-20 years. So the 60-80+ age group.
I was teaching teachers to use IT from 1988.

I think it is more likely that people create echo chambers with social media.
of course, your friends on FB or whatever will have a range of ideas and POV. But look at the number of people who have defriended people who had opposite views on Brexit. Or how anything to do with the referendum has to be in a separate section of MN.

I also suspect that, at leat in the uk, people aren't used to do political debates and avoid discussion on that subject.
Which means that they are unlikely to actually say loud and clear what they believe by fear of a backlash from people they do get on with.

I know an entire community of 70/80 year olds who voted for Brexit and they are indeed in some cases the liberals, and in the main graduates, who in the 69s and 70s pushed at glass ceilings, worked with the disadvantaged as teachers etc. Some of them are very tech savvy and many have some sort of presecence on Facebook, mainly to stalk family, they would never turn to it for news though, let alone turn up somewhere like here for debate. .

Watching BBC news, QT etc. and reading the Times and DT in the echo chambers of their community has far more of an influence on their views. They do not all read the Daily Mail but the rhetoric about immigration has penetrated their discourse and mobilised their emotions. Those tales of doctors' surgeries in Lincolnshire and prisons filled 50% with immigrant criminals gained a traction with them out of all perspective to reality or their own experience. At the polling station these older voters in white small town northern England were apparently cheering each other on and congratulating themselves on a chance to get their country back. A friend described how he pursuaded his mother to remain by pointing out the disconnect between her gratitude for her lovely Eastern European doctor and a Leave vote, but she dare not mention it to her peers because the ensuing discussions were just too difficult.

I am a baby boomer myself and admit that there were echo chambers amongst my peers as well, the economics of living in London means that many of us have children still at university or recently graduated and we have travelled and worked overseas (mostly two working parents as well) and those were powerful influences on our vote.

I do not think that anyone can argue that there were not powerful social forces at work in this vote, especially when they were quite specifically manipulated, whether online , or in the broadcast and print media by both the referendum campaigns and the likes of both Dacre and Murdoch. I see no other explanation for what I have experience amongst older voters, even my own family turning the whole elite rhetoric on me to shut down any debate.

That is interesting whatwouldrondo and shows just how complex it all is. I certainly don't doubt the impact of 40+ years of anti-EU rhetoric from parts of the MSM. I guess your group of voters would fit the pattern of voters where there is little immigration voting against immigration? I have friends who live in a small Sussex town and they said there was hardly a Remain poster to be seen, which seems like part of the same pattern.

Yes EmilyAlice though close to areas of high immigration where many of them did work, they are in towns where the community is little changed since the 60s and even further back in terms of the local demographics .

Just spent the weekend arguing about the merits or otherwise of Enoch Powell with family members. I nearly covered DS's ears. I am dreading Christmas. I could cry.
All of these family members are over 60. Over 80s not on social media, but the younger pensioners are. Only one of them is liberal and a remainer.

It's scary how far we have regressed that there is even any discussion to be had about Enoch Powell

BTW I disagree with the pp upthread who said that TM is a fascist. I think she is a consummate right wing politician who doesn't operate in the way we have become accustomed in the last twenty or so years, but not a fascist.

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/12/neo-nazi-group-national-action-banned-by-uk-home-secretary
Meanwhile the real fascists are having a wonderful season.
antifascistnetwork.org
Who're on the case, somewhat.

Although they are probably anarchist, but when it's a choice between a nazi and an anarchist...........

mango 1999 sounds good to me too!

It's nice here Castel...!!

Reasons for Trump and Brexit number 8
www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/11/amazon-accused-of-intolerable-conditions-at-scottish-warehouse

In an act of monumental stupidity, Theresa May's government has now announced implementation dates for the new higher ballot thresholds for industrial action, and the new beefed up Code of Practice for pickets under which e.g. "badges or armbands" should be worn by all authorised pickets "so that they are clearly identified" and a picket supervisor must give their contact details, including mobile number, to the police etc etc.

A society that goes to war on its civil society institutions, such as trade unions, ends up with the society it deserves. The destruction of trade union power is one of the key reasons why pay and job security has eroded since 1979.

castle do you know who these antifascists are? And is there really such a big rising of fascists over here even though we never hear about them in mainstream media?

I find it scary...

Trade unions already have so little powers...

Add to that the fact that any manifestations, such as the ones against the war in Irak, students against increase of fees etc.. isn't treated as the population using their rights to express themselves but are always portrayed as riots and acts of civil unrest, I do wonder how people are supposed to express their opposition to the government decisions.

Oh wait, maybe they aren't any more anyway, just like the opposition isn't allowed to say they don't agree with the government (for example re Brexit).

Unfortunately, this is just the continuation of what has been done for a long time now. Slowly eroding the rights of the workers and the population and putting them under surveillance.

Older people' i.e. over 65 have only just come of retirement age - the chances are extremely high that they've been using IT in its ever increasing forms at their work as well as social media.

The fact there are people half my age whose first action in contacting someone is to pick up the phone (rather than email) is indicative of something. I don't know what, but as someone who has devoted their professional life to IT, it's a tad ... frustrating.

Anyway, more bonkers Brexit fallout

www.theguardian.com/education/2016/dec/12/uk-halve-international-student-visa-tougher-rules?CMP=twt_gu

The Home Office is considering cutting international student numbers at UK universities by nearly half, Education Guardian can reveal. The threat is being greeted with dismay by university heads, who say some good overseas applicants are already being refused visas on spurious grounds.

I expect the UKIP chatrooms are ablaze already ....

I am dreading Christmas.

Me too, TheNorth for same reasons.

I think lots of people may use IT but lots and lots don't use social media. You're just maybe more in touch with those who do because they do, iyswim. I would say that most of the people I associate with in RL (40s and early 50s actually do not have FB or Twitter accounts).

Just spent the weekend arguing about the merits or otherwise of Enoch Powell with family members

Is this the Enoch Powell who could speak 14 languages ?

I think lots of people may use IT but lots and lots don't use social media.

An awful lot of social media falls into the category "but what is it for ?" I signed up for Facebook in 2005, used it for about an hour, and then forgot about it for years, as it didn't bring anything to my party. It was only a couple of years ago I reactivated my account, in response to changes in my circumstances.

This is a defining thread of the new business paradigm (the joke being it's not new at all ...) 90% of all "innovation" will fail - even if it is genuinely innovative - if it can't demonstrate it's usefulness to the general market. (See also "smartwatches" and the failure of Pebble).

(Shameless thread drift)

via FB

Marjorie I don't know the current anti fascist people, but in the olden days the anti nazi league was a wide coalition of like minded anti racists ( had a big demo through the national fronty east end of London) the US has a more main stream KKK monitoring set up, I'll look for links.
figment quite agree re unions. All this extremist right into the mainstream malarkey started with the miners' strike, I reckon. Without unions there's not protection at all. It's divide and rule all the way. No more amazon in this house. Again, look at any fascist state. No trades unions.

I have a friend in her early 70s who is struggling post referendum. Her entire peer group voted leave whilst she voted remain. Again many are liberal and many are very affluent and did well out of Europe and it doesn't sit with many of their other views. She's had similar arguments about foreign doctors. Worst still her daughter-in-law is European and has faced a difficult time with her children as there have been tensions in school with a split between the 'immigrants' and the 'locals' (My friends grandchildren are British born and raised but because of their mother and their foreign names end up classed as 'immigrants').

I actually know her through a common interest through the internet and we met recently for the first time. She has felt incredibly isolated and not able to spend time with her friends because you can't talk about anything without Brexit being mention and the elephant in the room has made it impossible to socialise otherwise.

My parents who are only slightly younger are remainers and are very relived not to be in a similar situation with their peers. My Mum also met my friend at the same time and I think it was good for her to see it wasn't everyone in her age group who felt the same.

My grandmother who is 90, has a basic ability internet though she rarely does. She is an ardent leaver much to my mother's despair. When they do talk about it, my mum frequently comes up with things that my grandmother is utterly bewildered by and didn't know. Its not stopping her in her support of Brexit though.

Her carers are polish and she loves them, and her sister married a Pole and she has lived abroad for many years herself, but nope, she still manages to trot out the immigration lines...

I think Christmas will be a particularly testing time this year because of Brexit. We won't be seeing my grandmother (she's 6 hour drive away and we just can't manage it between DH's work and having a toddler) but my Mum is seeing her. I don't envy my Mum and think its just as well we can't make it as well. I think DH might loose the plot over it and I won't be far behind. I know my cousins have already fallen out with her over it.

So one area where the UK was a leader in the field i.e. scientific and medical research based in Universities, is effectively going to be cut further. We have already made EU students feel unwelcome, May didn't get the assurances she needed from India and it's clear she doesn't want students from there.

So just how is the country going to finance 'working for everyone'? Where are the people to do the research? Shall we round up a few UKIPers and set them on to do medical research and see how they get on? If they are no good, we can demote them to fruit picking.

When are we going to wake up and get rid of Mrs BlueKIP May? Not that there is anyone halfway to being decent waiting in the wings.

No more amazon in this house

I heard a good defence of using Starbucks (cf Amazon for taxes) from the comedian Romesh Ranganathan (so unlikely UKIPers will have heard it).

Basically his argument was that he was glad they paid no UK tax, as he could be sure he wasn't funding wars in Syria he disagreed with.

Yes, it's superficial. And trite. But incredibly .... right.