Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

I agree with math regarding TM. That was one of the reasons why I was very worried to see her chosen to be the PM. SHe has, at the very least, some dictatorial tendencies and has never bothered to try and hide them.

I think Red that the issue with truth lies in the fact that we live in the Information Age, an age where information is easily available and there is so much of it, that we have ended up LESS informed than we were before.
There has been a lot written on it before but having so much information around us, a lot of it not reliable, spoof, one sided etc... that to actually be able to try and sort out what is closer to the truth and what isnt has become extremely hard. There is just too much of it.
So yes we should start by trusting no one and we should learn to dig and draw our own conclusion. But who has the time? And who has the knowledge in all these different areas to do so?
Because the issue here is that it affects politics yes but a lot of other areas such as medicine, the environment etc etc

I think we have to trust some people in order to function. Liberal democracy depends on the vast majority of people believing that judges aren't corrupt, civil servants and the police don't take bribes, at least some of the media can be trusted etc. etc.

We need to distinguish between politicians whose policies we hate (Pence would be horrendous for womens's rights) and politicians who are a threat to democracy.

Well said.

The scary thing about Trump is that the only cause he believes in is the cause of Donald Trump. (If nothing else, he has been pretty honest about that).

It's not clear yet whether that makes him more or less scary than alternative Republican presidents.

Things have been quite rough so far - I suppose the hope would be that at some point things settle down. However, given his track record, is that likely?

We've lost the 'trusted mediators' of information - journalists, politicians, teachers, writers etc it's revolutionary really (although not necessarily in a good way) - makes me think of the reformation, and the shock of the idea that you didn't need a priest to 'talk to God' and that you could access the bible yourself (or through someone who wasn't a 'qualified' priest.

In the same way, lots of people today have not been given the tools they need - a good enough education, and good enough living standards and ability to plan for the future so that they can afford to focus beyond their immediate needs and desires - to work out who can be trusted.

lots of people today have not been given the tools they need - a good enough education, and good enough living standards and ability to plan for the future so that they can afford to focus beyond their immediate needs and desires - to work out who can be trusted

Except that in the UK and the US people are comparatively well educated, and many supporters of Brexit and Trump are quite comfortably off. Was there a time when people were better educated?

In the UK atleast, I suspect the majority of Brexit voters listen to or watch the BBC more than they follow social media, just because they are from that generation. They might also buy the Daily Mail, but I think the generation that still watches the news everyday on television is the generation that voted for Brexit.

I'm just guessing if course - it would be interesting to have more (correct!) information.

And back to Brexit... here's another potential solution?

I received a Christmas card this morning from an uncle who lives in America saying God really was smiling down on America when 'evil Hillary' was defeated and Trump was elected.

I agree that the loss of "trusted mediators" is hugely significant, and is being very skilfully exploited.

Regarding the older Leave vote, I also suspect it is no coincidence that the age group most likely to vote leave was the group who were children in the aftermath of WW2, when British superiority over Germany - both moral and strategic - was at the core of our narrative about ourselves as a nation, before this started to dissipate, or at least take on a more nuanced aspect in the 60s and 70s. Voters who actually lived through the horrors of the war, now in their 80s, rather than growing up with it as a fable of British pluck in the face of the European enemy, were less likely to vote leave.

I say this with the disclaimer that of course not all baby boomers voted to leave, and of those that did many will have had quite specific reasons; but I would find it surprising if the cultural environment in which we grew up wrt Europe had no effect on this vote at a population level.

Again the stereotyping of older voters.

Firstly, nobody definitively knows who voted what way - polls have consistently been proved unreliable so I have as much faith in the much trumpeted Ashcroft poll as I do in any other.

Secondly, the older generation are all over social media these days.
Maybe 10 yrs ago they were not, but they are now - post war baby boomers are of my parents generation and they're all fully iPad-ed up and keeping in touch with people from all over the world.

As an aside on the 6 regions re the Grammars, I live in part of Dorset where children locally have traditionally gone to the Grammars in neighbouring LEA's. There has been a significant downward trend in numbers opting to go i.e. 24 from DD's year versus about 11 from DS's , he is 5 school years younger. This has been due to the local Upper School having a new Head and school improving a lot and I think it was a mix of parents feeling a long, expensive bus trip wasn't worth it plus some not being keen on the single sex aspect. That's just one section of the county though.

North Somerset has Weston super Mare which traditionally has had awful schools but they are slowly improving and the 6th form College is doing very well now. A lot of money is being pumped into the town centrefor regeneration but the Central Ward has high levels of poverty and there is a big disparity within the town itself in terms of wealth. The outlying areas have expanded a lot in recent years as Bristol property prices have increased and people moved out. One of the schools just over the border into North Somerset has always been very good with people moving out of Bristol to access it. As Portishead expanded the school improved a lot and the same with Clevedon. There is one other secondary school which has always been pretty solid and serves a number of rural communities. I can see if they were careful with location and spread the intake over the schools it might not affect them too badly but I think it would hamper the improvements to Weston schools,

The thing is though Kaija is that it was also our generation (I was born in 1949) who were on the barricades in the late sixties. We certainly weren't obsessed with the glory of war, quite the opposite.
And as we have all said before, the Brexit vote for the over 65s was still only about 60:40 and the biggest single factor was still education. It makes me angry that so many of my generation voted for Brexit, but there are still a significant minority who didn't. I agree though that the generation who lived through the war took a different view from some of our generation. (I live in Normandy and am appalled by the crowds who turn up in June to dress up as soldiers, drive round in jeeps and sometimes behave pretty insensitively. I blame re-enactment.)

uk.businessinsider.com/social-media-usage-among-people-over-65-has-tripled-2015-11

This is 2015, however I don't think things have changed much. Over 65s are still far less likely to be on social media than younger people.

I also, completely anecdotally, believe that they are more likely to watch live TV and the television news than younger people. Compared to the US, the main TV channels aren't supposed to be partisan.

In theory this would make them less susceptible to fake news/echo chambers. However they may be more vulnerable to real life echo chambers like pubs and clubs and being surrounded by people with similar opinions.

Why on earth would older people me more likely to listen to their peers? But yes, everyone of my 65-70 year old contempories was gobsmacked by Brexit so I think we do all live in an echo chamber to a certain extent.

AnnieKenney, it's an interesting alternative way of looking at things.

One thing that has struck me recently is that there may be a risk of England pushing for an independence ref, especially if NI & Scotland are able to overturn Brexit in any way.

I would not vote for independence personally, but I am starting to wonder what may happen in the future.
I would not really be overly surprised tbh if England would vote to disengage from the rest.

I love the patronising reasons given in that article about why we might be on social media. Of course it could be because we have worked in and with IT since the early seventies.

One thing that has struck me recently is that there may be a risk of England pushing for an independence ref, especially if NI & Scotland are able to overturn Brexit in any way.

Why do you say risk? I am intrigued. A Federal structure might turn out to be the way forward.

Why on earth would older people me more likely to listen to their peers?

The flip side of social media echo chambers is that it enables you to meet people from different backgrounds with different opinions.

If you don't live in a very diverse area and you only meet people from a similar background with similar opinions, thats as much an echo chamber as a twitter feed. Social media can educate as well as create bubbles.

In real life its more difficult to avoid people from different backgrounds if you have to go to school or work or have children. As you grow older and retire and your children leave home it's easier to live in a bubble.

Of course it could be because we have worked in and with IT since the early seventies.

Yes, but the fact remains that many older people are not on social media and the majority of older people were not working in IT in the seventies.

Peregrina, I say risk as I think it will be a push for complete separation, as opposed to a federal type thing.

Wrt a federal set up, I wouldn't be opposed to that - complete independence though is not a good prospect imo.

'Older people' i.e. over 65 have only just come of retirement age - the chances are extremely high that they've been using IT in its ever increasing forms at their work as well as social media.

The over 65s of 2016 are completely and totally incomparable to the over 65s of 2006, 1996, 1986 etc.

Well I think you have to define "older" then merrymouse. Of my contemporaries the vast majority are on Facebook and the majority on Twitter. Of the people I know in the 65-80 age group, most are on email, if not FB and Twitter (though many are). I agree it was not a majority who worked in IT in the seventies but I would think there were very few people not using IT by the end of their working lives.

The group 'over 65' does not just include people who are 65 and 66.

The internet wasn't widely used in offices till the very late 90's, and the iPhone was only invented 8 years ago.

I don't want to offend people on this thread who clearly are using social media, but while many people over 65 do use social media, most don't and therefore probably aren't overly influenced by their Twitter stream,

I know 90 year olds on facebook. I suspect what happens is that older generations come later to various Social Media. Aren't younger people supposed to have moved away from facebook now, (now that us wrinklies have taken it over)?

emilyalice, I'm looking at the report from the pew research centre. You might find it patronising, but I don't think there is alternative data claiming that most over 65s are on social media.