Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Louise Mensch is tweeting some stuff of merit (!) today.

It turns out that Trump can appoint any cabinet members without the support of the Senate. As it stands its 52 Republicans to 48 Democrats. So the Republicans need to stay on side for Trump to appoint people like Tillerson

She points out how much of a big deal this is:

Marco Rubio ‏@marcorubio
Being a "friend of Vladimir" is not an attribute I am hoping for from a #SecretaryOfState - MR

Manu Raju ‏@mkraju
Significant. If Graham, McCain and Rubio vote 'no' - with all 48 Ds - Tillerson won't get confirmed.

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
It's not just those three @mkraju - @BenSasse, @MikeLee, @SenatorCollins won't vote for Tillerson - that's SIX Republican no votes to start

Has that got your attention yet?

She explains in a number of further tweets:

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
The Republican patriots are castrating Trump and I think impeachment could easily follow

It's on, guys. Patriotic Republicans won't be confirming ANYBODY Trump wants who is close to Russia and Putin

Donald Trump no longer has ability to appoint ANY friends of Vladimir Putin to ANYTHING and he's not even sworn in

It's over. Tillerson is gone. All of them are gone. No Russian allies will be confirmed for ANY posts. Watch your six you fat clown

It'll help with the impeachment and with our forthcoming punishment of Russia and Putin

Trump won't even nominate Tillerson now. Nor will he nominate any Putinbots. This is moving fast

Interestingly Trump, said this around the same time:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
Whether I choose him or not for "State"- Rex Tillerson, the Chairman & CEO of ExxonMobil, is a world class player and dealmaker. Stay tuned!

That does not sound quite as definite as it did.

Mensch carried on (Ranting. Albeit it with perhaps more substance than usual!)

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
Reminder that patriot @mike_pence does not serve at Donald Trump's pleasure and can't be fired. #Putin

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
SIX R "No" votes on #Tillerson - McCain, Collins, Flake, Sasse, Graham, and @MarcoRubio - makes plain NO pro-putin

Attitude of the Patriotic Six (so far) Collins, McCain, Flake, Rubio, Sasse and Graham - means no #Tillerson, no #Rohrbacker, NO pro-#Putin

In one tweet @MarcoRubio lets @RealDonaldTrump know that #NeverPutin is not something he can ever overcome in the White House

The Republican Senators are VOCIFEROUSLY anti-Russia. If ANY evidence found of Trump campaign colluding he'll be impeached.

The fact is the checks and balances envisaged by the Founders are checking Trump and Bannon-Putin BEFORE Day 1.

Folks, it's not just Rex Tillerson whom patriot Republicans kicked to the kerb. Its Dana Rohrbacker and that Democrat from HI. NO Putinbots

I told you she was ranting a lot, but stick with it, there's potentially more here.

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
The @CIA and @FBI know that Carter Page's phonecalls are on tape. @SpeakerRyan needs to tell Donald Trump is he pardons Page, impeachment

And @SpeakerRyan should tell @RealDonaldTrump that if he pardons anybody in advance of Congress and FBI investigation, he'll be impeached

Eh? Who the fuck is Carter Page? Well here's Louise to tell us all:

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
Carter Page was taped talking to Russia by multiple foreign intelligence agencies per CI sources. #FISA

As a US Person, FBI needed a #FISA warrant to investigate Carter Page and now they have it.

It really isn't that complicated,folks, Carter Page was Trump's foreign policy adviser, CI sources: on tape doing many illegal things #FISA

When the @FBI releases the tapes it has of Carter Page's phone calls in Moscow (we Brits helped), Trump camp in grave danger. #FISA

You what?! British involvement?!

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
Vice President-Elect Pence has never been mentioned by any of my CI sources as compromised by Russia. #FISA

My CI sources: foreign governments who taped Carter Page in Moscow: UK, Germany, Ukraine. all have same stuff

Oooh Germany too?

(Now I'm getting very interested in that ten minute conversation between May and Obama and also what Obama and Merkel might have been talking about).

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
Get used to saying this:

"President Pence was sworn in..."

Radfoot Strongdoctor @rstrongdoctor
@LouiseMensch @FBI Ms Mensch do you honestly believe Trump will be inaugurated?

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
50-50 at this stage. Things are moving very fast. Depends on the report Obama produces.

@rstrongdoctor I'd say marginally more likely that he makes it. If I were Obama I would offer Trump a full pardon in advance to step aside

This would be a smart move by Obama, but I don't think it will happen as Trump is too stubborn and arrogant to do that.

RandoPerson ‏@Dawnsfire
@LouiseMensch I still expect a Trump Presidency but brushing up on the 12th Amend and Art 1 Sec 2+3 might be a good use of time right now

(This refers to electors of each state not voting for the winner of the state - the faithless electors thing).

I also note that Louise Mensch was DEAD AGAINST the recount thing, calling Jill Stein a 'putinbot' to cause as much trouble and throw the US into chaos (this I really think is crap) and said she would accept the result for the sake of America. My point being that she was happy with the Republicans winning the election but has a problem with the Russian Connection. Was has always been anti-trump and anti-Clinton but not anti-Republican and this position is an interesting one given the context. Especially since she does not want a chaotic situation in the US. When it was pointed out she said she would accept the result previously, she said the change of the situation allowed her to change her view on being against Trump getting in, which is fair enough.

She's even been admitting that she has been wrong to label liberals today and call them weak and unpatriotic (Fucking hell - if you've seen Mensch's tweeting this is an admission. She has a habit of changing her mind frequently but this one is a large departure even by her standards. I do think this is a fairly sincere for once)

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
Knowing that you can be a total Dem liberal AND a hawkish, patriotic, national security expert has been revelatory to me #NatSecLeft

But here's why. And its not a pretty point:

Louise Mensch ‏@LouiseMensch
I don't. Pity Putin started one by hacking a US election, isn't it?

Russia will get what's coming to it thanks to Putin's act of war

IF all the above is correct and pans out (and I think its a fair assessment of how the cards are being placed on the table - rather than saying its the 'truth') then she is right in saying this. This would constitute an act of war.

Then she goes off accordingly as you might expect being hawkish and repercussions for Russia.

Yes this IS Louise Mensch. But watch this story to see if it develops more. She has been retweeting Sarah Kendzior today, who is anti-totalitarian and most definitely liberal. Michael Moore has also been quoted over the weekend saying he doesn't think Trump will necessarily be crowned as President. These are unusual people for Mensch to be bedfellows with and sharing opinions with.

Then we have this:

Scott Dworkin ‏@funder
Breaking: We are filing complaints for treason tmrw on Trump, McConnell, Giuliani & James Comey.

#DworkinReport #TrumpLeaks Russians #AMJoy

And we have this joint statement from Senators McCain, Schumer, Graham, and Reed on Russia hacking U.S. Election

And this does tie in with the article from a few days ago, from the Telegraph which quotes MI6 on Russia.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/08/britain-faces-fundamental-threat-sovereignty-russian-meddling/

This is all lining up in a particular way, so although, this is Mensch spelling it out, I think its worthy of sitting up and taking notice. This seems to be playing out a particular way and might give you an idea of what might happen in the next couple of weeks or months.

In contrast to this, from the Trump side, you need to be aware of this in terms of what might be about to happen:

Jay Rosen @jayrosen_nyu
1/ For those asking "how bad is it likely to get?" for the American press as a check on power, things to look for in the next 6-8 months...
2/ Already in gear: Trump loyalists (Jeffrey Lord is the model) recruited into the press as a gaudy show of balance.
3/ There, the implied message from journalism to the Trump forces (the government + his core supporters) is: "Don't hurt us, we'll be good!"
4/ "Don't hurt us, we'll be good" is also a subtext when the report is accusation-driven rather than evidence-based.
5/ From Trump a steady flow of easy-to-check lies as both a show of power and to cast the press in the role of petty but hateful antagonist.
6/ Ugly attacks on individual journalists who somehow provoke POTUS and his troll army online will intensify. But here a thing to watch for—
7/ The cabinet, GOP office holders and opinion leaders. Do they join in these attacks? Or is it just the tip and the base of the pyramid?
8/ When you can't tell what's going on — when listening harder generates more noise and attention = confusion — then you know it's working.
9/ It's not that we won't see big investigations and spectacular exposés. We will. They will serve as rocket fuel for the political divide.
10/ The assault on a common world of fact, the "we create our own reality" thing. Of that we are just at the beginning. It will get worse.
11/ You will know if I'm being alarmist when the first leak investigation comes— and it will come. Here is what I want to warn you about...
12/ Someone in government who can't live with what's happening will do what such people have always done: leak a 'big story' to the press.
13/ Most of these stories will be burned as fuel in the culture war, adding to Trump's power rather than "damaging" him in any way, BUT...
14/ ... a leak will unfold that enrages Trump. He will demand a show of power. And the full force of the government will be brought to bear.
15/ DOJ guidelines (which aren't laws) and norms in government that said 'tread carefully around the press'— these will vanish overnight.
16/ Picture, say, @Fahrenthold on trial for espionage. GOP leaders and office holders complicit. Culture war exploding around the trial...
17/ It's an obscene image. I hope it never happens. I'm not trying to be lurid or provocative. Just descriptive of conditions in place now.
18/ I guess the point I want to underline most is: the situation is way beyond just finding and publishing hard-hitting or critical stories.
19/ The problem is not at the level "how to cover Trump," but how to recover conditions in which anything journalists do makes a difference.
20/ I don't think we have any answers to that. One thing I do know: "Don't hurt us, we'll be good!" won't save you. Winter is coming. END

It is difficult to argue that the US is not already into this cultural civil war now. The pattern above is what we have seen post referendum in the UK, but Americanised with the obligatory steroids to make it ten times worse.

Where and how this progresses and to the extent to which this will go, is the concern.

This, together with the political implications and Brexit connections make it impossible for the UK to escape. Especially when Le Pen also is supposed to be supported by Putin. And what happens with regard to the Farage / Banks association and endorsement with Trump. If Trump falls, are they guilty by association?

On that note being aware that fascist groups and agendas are supposedly linked with Putin across Europe for undermining and destabilising governments, I also think move is one that should get a bit of your attention, and make you think, 'Oh':
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/national-action-british-neo-nazi-group-to-be-classed-as-terror-organisation-and-banned-first-time-a7468136.html
British neo-Nazi group 'to be classed as terror organisation and banned' in unprecedented move
The first UK Neo Nazi Group to be classed as a terror organisation.

As I say, I don't know how much is 'truth'. The reality is regardless of what that actually might be, this is how the truth is being presented, and how the chess pieces are being moved and how people are reading what they are seeing. This ultimately is more important and it affects what happens next whilst we are in that moment and unable to judge without prejudice from afar.

And, 'Also this week, the Evening Standard ran a feature called Meet the Fascie Pack, highlighting the pivotal role of a group of far-right media operators “with impeccable grooming and incendiary views”.

As mathanxiety points out:

We talk about 'Russian intentions' (to quote that Guardian article) in Europe as if this was a clearcut matter about which there is no question and no doubt.

Yet we actually are referring to suspicions based on perhaps nothing more than personal prejudices.

And that's the big point about what I've just posted. Truth v perception. Who wins?

Red Michael Moore did say this a few days ago, but wow.

Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft Just
Retweeted:

Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 23hrs Ago
You heard it first here...

Retweeted:

Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 7th Dec
Now that the UK Government has no US role for @Nigel_Farage don't be surprised if @realDonaldTrump offers him something...

Ashcroft is generally close to the Farage Camp.

Blimey at Louise Mensch.

But also the Jay Rosen stuff. I guess it's no coincidence and in fact makes perfect sense that the excellent piece about Trump and gas lighting appeared not in any of the serious papers who are in the "don't hurt us, we'll be good" phase but in Teen Vogue.

Mathanxiety I certainly don't regard Democrats as doves
However, Trump was campaigning saying he'd stop all these Middle East wars waged by both US parties, that he'd be different.
So I'm pointing out that he may be even more blatant about Wars for Oil.

I don't use the word fascist merely for those politicians I disagree with e.g. TM & Boris may be heartless, but they certainly aren't fascist.
However, we shouldn't flinch from using the correct word when politicians genuinely appear fascist.

I deliberately use the word fascist about Putin and Trump, because that is my considered assessment of them.
You may disagree - because you seem to be a Putin fan in particular - but for me they satisfy the criteria for being fascist;
Putin far more so than Trump, because he has actually carried out torture and murder, whereas Trump may never be able to, due to the constraints of the US system.

It is strange that many on the left make excuses for Putin, but will happily call "fascist" on far less dangerous Western politicians. We shouldn't have double standards.

Also, we agreed on these threads to use "fascist" not "alt-right" to describe the far right movement in the UK & USA. Alt-right sanitises them.

'There's no such thing as truth, only what we think we recognise'. The internet has enabled 'recognition' ( repeat a lie, ad nauseum, see my previous post re holocaust deniers enabled by google) , therefore truth evaporates. We got lazy, they got busy. Time to get busy ourselves.

I'm not sure what benefit Trump would get from giving Farage a job - what's in it for Trump ?

Currently, Farage is hanging around England like herpes, irritating and keeps returning :

"I’ll stand as MP for EIGHTH time if Brexit DOESN’T mean Brexit"
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/742071/Nigel-Farage-general-election-MP-eighth-time-soft-Brexit-Theresa-Mayy_

“I hope, genuinely, that Brexit means Brexit and the job is done and there is no need for me. I really hope that’s it.
“But with every week that goes by I think it might not be, so I’ll have to stick at it.”

I agree BigChoc. But I see no reason why Ashcroft would retweet that not just once but twice if he wasn't aware of something in the works.

Wow interesting from Louise Mensch!

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/10/nigel-farage-could-made-unofficial-adviser-donald-trump-despite/
Nigel Farage could be made unofficial adviser to Donald Trump - despite what Theresa May says

Farage flying back to the US on Tuesday with Wigmore. He's already seen Trump once since the golden door photo.

(That makes third time in three weeks).

Express also reporting.

Maybe this has been mentioned in the crowdfunding thread (not been brave enough to go in there, but perhaps I'm being too much of a snowflake) but the Jo Maugham funding target has been reached. And there was me CTRL-Ring the site in the hope of contributing the last tenner to get it over the line.

(For the benefit of post-truth fact-check fans I should point out a lie in the above: I was failing at Christmas shopping at the time. And there's no CTRL key on an iPad anyway.)

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that John McCain and John Kerry are calling for a cross-party investigation into alleged Russian interference in the election. It's all got very interesting (in the real sense of the word, rather than bloody terrifying which is what it has meant recently).

edition.cnn.com/2016/12/11/politics/russia-us-elections-2016/index.html
On Trump and Russia.
www.nytimes.com/2016/12/11/us/politics/trump-russia-democrats.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Trump: 'I don't believe it' therefore it's not true.

On Farage's role: it's a coup. Unelected but in power. Now that would be fascist.

Eeeeeowwwfftz good news, that crowd funding was raised in a day?

No idea where I got John Kerry from, it's John McCain and Lindsey Graham .

Castel- I'm not sure Farridge does irony.

Good lad John Mc Cain; pro choice.

I was being literal

Just watching Trump on the news saying he doesn't need daily intel briefings because he's a 'smart person'.

Shall we call it 'T-day'? The day that someone from the US establishment gets worried enough about him to send someone to a 'grassy knoll'.

I know, Jon Sopel's analysis was pretty spot on. Trump's telling the people that the CIA (who are there to protect national security) can't be trusted. A "normal" president would say "These are serious concerns that we must investigate to work out what's happening".

I think he actually said "I'm, like, a smart person"

I think the "like" is important

At this point are Americans supposed to trust either the FBI or the CIA?