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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

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Thread gallery
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Peregrina · 25/11/2016 12:38

In 1981 if you had said that the Berlin Wall would be coming down 10 years later, I wouldn't have believed you.

Sadly I think the Troubles could easily flare up again in Ireland. I sincerely hope they don't, but I don't think the way May is handling the Brexit negotiations with respect to NI is in any way encouraging.

Although the Mail/Heil and Daily Express/Fascist are happily talking up Brexit, there does eventually come a disconnect. Like now, we are told unemployment is low, but then so many people are on zero hours contracts or in precarious work that they begin to realise that they are not being told the whole story.

RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 12:43

Cross post with everyone. Not on the ball this morning.

Bored this is why I DON'T gamble! I don't know why the result was not more favourable.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/louise-haigh-wants-britain-first-to-be-listed-as-a-terrorist-organisation_uk_5836fcabe4b0207d1917a6bb
Britain First Should Be Listed As A ‘Terrorist Organisation’ Labour MP Louise Haigh Urges
Proposal to be reported to Home Secretary Amber Rudd.

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RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 12:47

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
At the British-Irish Council - "no" not clearer on what Brexit means says @fmwales - all agreed on single market access, he says
Brokenshire: dont see binary choice ... Sturgeon: I'm clear UK should seek to stay in the EEA as the "least worst outcome"

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merrymouse · 25/11/2016 12:58

www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/local/14926713.Zac_Goldsmith__Anything_but_a_vote_for_me_would_make_Heathrow_expansion_inevitable/

Mr Goldsmith backed the Leave campaign in the referendum, while 72 per cent of Richmond Park constituents voted to remain in the European Union.

But he reassured voters by saying he has been a “moderating influence” in the debate.

He said: “I made two interventions as MP; I was one of only two Tory MPs to vote with Labour My to ensure EU nationals living in the UK could stay, and I voted to get EU environmental translated into UK law.

“I would like to see us get good access to the single market when we leave. I want us to get the best possible deal.”

I think losing a seat would be far more of a 'moderating influence' on TM. Are there good reasons for Remain Conservatives in Richmond Park to vote Tory at this by-election?

RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 13:06

www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/10/25/may-s-student-deportation-programme-in-tatters-as-legal-appe
May’s student deportation programme in tatters as legal appeal falls apart

Did everyone hear about the Home Office Select Committee Report on the Child Abuse Inquiry yesterday? You know the inquiry set up by May which has been slammed for being too broad in its scope and unmanageable. Well its damming. Said confidence into its credibility, seriously undermined. (One of the lawyers apparently was accused of sexual assault on a co-worker but it was not followed up or investigated)

www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmhaff/636/63602.htm

Oooo here's another story about transparency:
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/andrea-leadsom-held-back-damaging-9333582
Government held back damaging report on fracking until after key planning decision on drilling
The Information Commissioner ordered DECC to publish a report into the consequences of drilling - but she told civil servants to wait until after a decision had been made on fracking in Blackpool

Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom told civil servants to hold back a damaging report her department had been forced to publish on fracking until after a key planning decision, newly released documents revealed today.

Campaigners say the emails show "dirty tricks" at the top of the Tories' fracking policy

Meanwhile Guido Fawkes has an intriguing story that suggests that there would be a 'Brexit Dividend' according to the OBR which some leave campaigners are saying we could spend on the NHS.
order-order.com/2016/11/25/vote-leave-alumni-tell-may-spend-brexit-dividend-nhs/

Looks like the Leave bus just got a makeover...

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Gumpendorf · 25/11/2016 13:12

Are there good reasons for Remain Conservatives in Richmond Park to vote Tory at this by-election?

Zac is seen as an active constituency MP so, like Carswell, he may survive through personal loyalty. Heathrow may come through for him because he has been the loudest anti Heathrow voice, and that may be worth more than having a Lib Dem who may not have much influence on either topic.

LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 13:16

Sadly I think the Troubles could easily flare up again in Ireland.

Because no one under the age of 40 will have any memory of what the IRA - one of the most organised, well equipped, well trained, and well motivated terrorist organisations in the world - is capable of.

It will be a nasty shock for some people to discover that terrorists can be white, well spoken, and born in the UK to British parents.

The UK knew in the 1960s that it could never succeed in an armed struggle with the IRA, and (as Ken Livingstone correctly highlighted) there could only have been a negotiated settlement. I have already questioned whether the threat of "Troubles" again is enough of a spur to drive previously loyalist NI citizens to at least contemplate some sort of unification of Ireland. Speaking as mainland English citizen, it's not something I would have a problem with as long as it wasn't selling the citizens down the river.

I think it's entirely possible Brexit could see Scotland independent and Ireland united to stay in the EU.

And now the genii is out of the bottle, rather than carping on about it, being objective, maybe it was going to happen anyway. If not now, in 50 years time ?

Maybe that's the answer to this mess ? Since we are committed to change (thanks Tess), let's do our own U-Turn and damn well have change. The change being Scotland and NI leaving the Union to remain in the EU. I'd vote for that Hmm

I've just suddenly realised Theresa May might not like being called "Tess" ? Oh well, I'm sure she can get used to it. Tess of the D'Underheads is a bit too obvious, but on BBC every weekday.

LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 13:20

The Information Commissioner ordered DECC to publish a report into the consequences of drilling

So ?

Experts, reports. They're all just mumbo-jumbo nowadays. The nice Mr. Gove said so.

As I said yesterday, government is going to have an uphill battle selling anything to the public based on "expert" advice.

LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 13:21

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38103375

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that he will let hundreds of thousands of migrants travel on to Europe if pushed by the EU.

Oh, the irony ....

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 13:38

May’s student deportation programme in tatters as legal appeal falls apart

The decision on this came on the day the Heathrow 3rd runway was announced. Coincidence, or a good day to bury bad news? The latter, IMO, but our supine press managed not to give the publicity to this to save TM's face.

RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 13:41

LurkingHusband Fri 25-Nov-16 13:16:20
Because no one under the age of 40 will have any memory of what the IRA - one of the most organised, well equipped, well trained, and well motivated terrorist organisations in the world - is capable of.

It will be a nasty shock for some people to discover that terrorists can be white, well spoken, and born in the UK to British parents.

I'm 38. Ta.
Plenty of kids were affected in the final few years of the IRA and I'm fairly sure that there is quite a few people in the NW and in NI itself who would very much disagree with that.

Ironically its the ones who DID know about the IRA and what they are capable of that were more likely to vote to Leave and disregarded their historical knowledge.

I think that comment is somewhat unfair on younger people.

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whatwouldrondo · 25/11/2016 13:49

merrie A particular demographic in the constituency I have talked to regard him as the "right sort" to represent them. Nice looking, well spoken, part of the establishment. He (and his siblings ) went to local private school on Richmond Hill before Eton so he is regarded as one of them/ or what they aspire to socially.

However his mayoral campaign and Brexit stance are swaying other voters, as well as the fact that he doesn't come over as particularly bright.

I detect that social snobbery and intellectual / liberal snobbery are going to be quite big factors in this by election, as well as actual politics.

RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 13:56

www.ft.com/content/bc656c2c-8d2d-35b0-b297-0ca57bfe740f
Four things to watch out for in Italy’s looming referendum

On paper, this is an arcane poll to shake up Italy’s parliamentary democracy and shore up government stability, but the referendum has become a proxy for the leadership of centre-left prime minister Matteo Renzi

and

As it stands, the polls give the ‘No’ vote a narrow lead of 5-7 percentage points.

It then talks about the economic fall out.

Oh get this!!!!!
www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-brexit-march-supreme-court-led-by-nigel-farage-postponed-1593471
Pro-Brexit march on Supreme Court led by Nigel Farage is 'postponed'
EXCLUSIVE: Leave.EU confirms to IBTimes UK that the demonstration has been called off

Andy Wigmore, the head of communications for Leave.EU, confirmed the move on Friday (25 November). A source told IBTimes UK that the pro-Brexit campaign feared far-right groups such as the EDL and BNP could "hijack" the event and were worried about violence between Leave and Remain protesters.

Oh Really. Is that right?

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RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 13:58

My Richmond friend pretty much said Goldsmith would win because he was good looking and locals were blinkered to all the other stuff he did or represented because of that.

This is another type of stupidity.

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TheBathroomSink · 25/11/2016 13:58

I'm the same age as Red, and I grew up in a town with a military base. We had to enter the base every day on the school bus to pick up the kids from there and more than once got caught in a lockdown because a car had broken down on the road near the fence (on the day of one of my GCSE mocks) or something worse. I also worked in the school holidays as a tourist attraction where we had a procedure for dealing with bomb threats, including code words to listen for.

We were (and still are) well aware of the IRA and what they were prepared to do.

We were also aware of ETA and Basque separatists.

whatwouldrondo · 25/11/2016 14:00

LH One of my DDs did a History module on Northern Ireland including a trip where they met people on both sides of the divide. That may be exceptional but I do think that the various organisations that aim to protect the peace have made an impact in keeping the memory of it alive for the younger generation, not least making some excellent teaching resources available with plenty of good source materials to History teachers.

I think the older generation may have actually become desensitised by the years of exposure whereas for the younger generation it is shocking to contemplate a brutal civil war on our doorstep so recently.

TheBathroomSink · 25/11/2016 14:00

It's more likely that Farage will be off stuffing his wallet with cash in the States, which is undoubtedly a more appealing prospect than a badly attended march in cold, probably damp London.

MariePoppins · 25/11/2016 14:11

From an outsider, I would have said that IRA was actually a civil in Britain rather than on your doorstep...

Interesting to see the way the issue with the IRA is seen here.

MariePoppins · 25/11/2016 14:12

Sorry a civil war in Britain.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 14:13

Changes ...

I remember politics in the late 1960s - Harold Wilson inviting Trade Unions to sandwiches at No 10, because they were a powerful force that must be appeased.
Also Roy Jenkins social liberalism - legalising abortion, homosexuality.

Exciting to be young in a changing world opening out to us. Also to shock our parents and listen to the Beatles & Rolling Stones on pirate radio 
1968 and the young so powerful, with stuffy old governments running scared.

Then the total chaos of Edward Heath
Unions still powerful, 3-day weeks, the dreadful blunder of Bloody Sunday, the IRA really revving up, the US in the never-ending Viet Nam.
The world looking scarier and then jobs suddenly much harder to find.
Inflation reaching 25% and it made no sense to save (ok some things don't change)

1979 and the 1989s, total shock of MrsT totally changing everything - breaking the Trade Unions, sellong council houses, rolling back the State privatising what Labour had nationlsied years ago

The Falklands were the turning point:
if General Galtieri had taken Reagan's deal, which was humiliating for the UK, then MrsT would have been forced to accept it too and she would not have lasted her 1st term.
Fortunately, Galtieri wanted a 100% victory, so the US switched to supporting the UK and MrsT "won" the war.
Her popularity from this encouraged the Americans to start wars against small countries and ended their post-Vietnam paralysis.

John Major & crashing out of the ERM - my mortgage at 15% Shock Many people losing their homes in negative equity
The Berlin Wall crashing down, all that hope rising again for the young in Europe

All New Labour's promise in 1997 & cool Britannia, but then turning out to be Mrs T's proudest legacy.
The US poodle - remember "Yo, Blair" and sucked into wars
Peace in NI was amazing though

So, I've seen massive changes, but nearly all for the benefit of the rich, with anyone else helped only by accident.
The steering wheel has been stuck in right turn for decades now.

But maybe there'll be another turning point like the Falklands, that initially looks a silly sideshow, but empowers a game-changer.
What could be the next Falklands and who could be the next politician to change our world ?
Brexit ? Farage ? Trump ?

ImpYCelyn · 25/11/2016 14:26

I'm 31 and grew up in SE London. We heard the bomb at Canary Wharf. We live very close the Royal Artillery and the Kings Arms. Although both of those were before I was born they were very much part of local awareness. My parents worked in the city and used to talk about what it was like when there were threats etc. I remember the Omagh bombing vividly. And the Manchester bombing.

My mum's family were/are Irish Catholics, living in Kent, but born on the island, and my grandad and his brothers had all been interviewed by the police in relation to the troubles, despite the fact that they despised the IRA. So used to hear stories from them too.

I think it's very unfair to say that people under 40 know nothing about it. Lots of us do. I doubt my 19yo cousin is quite as aware, but all the way down to at least 30 I would imagine there's decent awareness. Bloody Sunday and back story was on the history curriculum when I was at school.

whatwouldrondo · 25/11/2016 14:26

marie Although we experienced IRA bombings on the mainland and the attached security (which is in place again now), life did go on pretty much unaffected for most. Nothing like the effective military occupation, and the sectarian divide and resulting brutality and intimidation, not to mention hate and economic inequality that permeated every aspect of daily life in Northern Ireland.

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 14:33

and were worried about violence between Leave and Remain protesters.
Remainers were planning to stay away, so in reality, violence between Leave and the hard right e.g. BNP who if they voted for anything, would have voted Leave. Plus the turn out the other day was pretty pathetic, and they can't even blame the weather, because it was reasonably good for late November.
-
I remember the 15% mortgages - I remind DS of this when he tells me that my generation have shafted his. Things were difficult for us too, but in a different way.

whatwouldrondo · 25/11/2016 14:38

Many of those sectarian divides persist, they did not go away as a result of the peace process, they still march, you still see flags in certain areas, and certain extremist ideas and beliefs get an exposure in civic life that appears Hmm by the norms of the rest of the UK . For instance there is a movement to give something called Ulster Scots legitimacy as an official language based on the fact it was the language /dialect of the original Protestant settlers, and a translation for children with SEN in an official document was proposed as "wee dafty bairns" Hmm

MariePoppins · 25/11/2016 14:42

what I understand that.
But I dont understand why what hapened with the IRA isnt seen as a civil war in this country. It still feels like 'something far away that actually didnt really have any effect on us' rather than something happening IN the country.

For me, it nearly reads that it didnt matter because iot wasnt happening in England iyswim

As I said only a reaction from an outsider and how it looks like to me....

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