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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

OP posts:
Thread gallery
21
LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 09:24

It's worth remembering John Major put his job on the line over Europe. Cameron should have done the same.

Funny going through the 80s and 90s and being pro-EU it seemed the only credible party was the Tories with a rump of Redwood-esque loons. But being buoyed by big business, they knew they had to stay in. Turns out it was all an elaborate facade - the Tory party is better at hiding internal division than Labour.

Given how badly Brexit is going to hit big (and I mean big) Tory party donors - and the apparent insouciance of Theresa May - I wonder if there are any backroom coups in motion ? Or has she got their balls in a vice with their browsing history Hmm ?

merrymouse · 25/11/2016 09:51

www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/11/nicholas-soames-ids-my-old-friend-knock-it-off-lets-listen-to-the-brexit-options-not-close-our-minds-in-advance.html

Soames to IDS.

Comments are interesting.

I'm not sure what TM can do. At some point, in order to survive, she has to start looking competent, but how? She has picked the winning side, but I don't think it's possible to identify anybody who appears to know what they are doing.

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 10:24

Re the comments on the Soames article - one says 'Why haven't you Remainers got a policy on.... ' I stopped reading at that point, thinking 'well, why don't you appoint a Leave PM' and then realised that they weren't even able to field a credible candidate, when the heir apparent, i.e. Johnson, renounced his place in the line of succession, (for the time being).

Leasdom and Gove have been mighty quiet of late. Apart from trading in tea and jam we haven't heard a squeak from either of them, when they should be brimming with ideas.

LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 10:29

She has picked the winning side

I think it's more a case of the "winning" side picked her.

HummusForBreakfast · 25/11/2016 10:44

I'm sure Gove and co have any choice atm. They can support TM and look bad or propose different things than what she is doing and be torn into pieces by the press for not supporting her.

Having said, I was feeling better looking at headlines today. We finally seem to have some opposition or people proposing new ways f doing things and saying that TM might not all right after all, even within Leavers. Maybe democracy is still working a bit.

I just wish Farrage would go away. Why is he given such a big space in the media for things he has no control about, such 'becoming the UK ambassador'??

InformalRoman · 25/11/2016 10:55

Interesting interview with the PM of Malta (who will be EU President from January):

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38100561

Basically, no FOM then no access to single market. End of.

merrymouse · 25/11/2016 10:58

Ironically, I think the biggest argument for Brexit is being played out across the Atlantic - an overwhelming majority of Californians voted for Clinton, but that counts for nothing because a majority of states voted for Trump. (Not sure how well the comparison stands up, but I'd certainly be using it if I were a Leaver).

However, post Brexit, rather than looking forward to a future of independence and 'sovereignty' we appear to be scrambling to find favour with Trump.

TheBathroomSink · 25/11/2016 11:15

Last night's by election results:

Liberal Democrat HOLD Valley (Tandridge).
Labour HOLD Blakelaw (Newcastle upon Tyne).
Labour HOLD Warsop Carrs (Mansfield).
Labour HOLD Castle (Carlisle).
Conservative GAIN Reedley (Pendle) from Labour.
Conservative HOLD Sovereign (Eastbourne).
Conservative HOLD Turn Hill (Somerset)

Reedley (Pendle) result:
CON: 51.1% (+8.4)
LAB: 46.6% (-7.6)
LDEM: 2.3% (+2.3)

Blakelaw (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 44.9% (-25.7)
LDEM: 39.4% (+21.4)
NFIR: 8.2% (+8.2)
CON: 7.4% (-4.0)

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 11:22

Boris Johnson, 2013:

“If we left the EU… we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by ‘Bwussels’, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure…

Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans?
That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU.”

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 11:26

Strange how Boris can do 180 degree turns with impunity
e.g. Backing Turkey's bid to join the EU, scaremongering about what he backed, revetts to backing agin ... < head spins madly round & round >

It will be very interesting to see how low other Tories will stoop, putting career and party before country.
I fear Fox and his nasty ilk would bend over very low indeed, for as long as Trump wants.

If Fox has his way, the UK would return to a 3 day week (anyone else lived through the Heath years ?)

Give him until 2020 and North Africa will be fending off boatloads of British economic migrants.

LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 11:31

Since it seems a lot of people here are politically minded, is there anyone who remembers - going back to the late 1980s - an interview, possibly Parkinson, with Gore Vidal ?

They debated UK politics, and Gore Vidal noted that the "big game in town" was the EEC/EC. He pointed out the amount of money big business was looking to make from being in Europe. At which point Parky (?) said;

"But Mrs Thatcher isn't fully convinced of the European Community."

at which point, Vidal just said:

"In that case, she'll have to go."

which got a "yeah, right" look from the interviewer who pointed out that Thatcher had just won her 3rd election and looked impregnable.

Vidal just smiled, and repeated "She'll have to go."

The whole interview centred around how transparent politics was.

It was an exchange I remembered vividly when the whole world seemed surprised that she was ousted in 1989 - because I wasn't - it was predicted perfectly.

So, fast forward to 2016. If there were "dark pro-EC forces" ranging against MrsT, where are they now ? Have they changed their minds ? Are they less potent these days ? Or have they given up ?

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 11:33

Carlisle Castle

Labour 350 [49.3%; +9.0%]
Conservative 194 [27.3%; -1.4%]
UKIP 79 [11.1%; -3.6%]
LD David Wood 51 [7.2%; 1.0%]
Green 36 [5.1%; -3.2%]
Majority: 194
Labour hold
Percentage change since 2015

Eastbourne Sovereign
Conservative 1276 [65.2%; +24.4%]
LD Roger Howarth 528 [27.0%; +1.6%]
Labour 152 [7.8%; 0.0%]
[UKIP [0.0%; -21.1%]]
[Green [0.0%; -4.8%]]
Majority: 748
Conservative hold

Looks as though all the UKIP votes have gone back to the Tories in Eastbourne, which tells you something about both parties, I think.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 11:33

Since 1999, the UK has lost just 57 EU Council votes out of 2,601.
If the idea is to depend on Trump's goodwill, I wonder how often the UK will lose and just have to lump it.

LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 11:34

If Fox has his way, the UK would return to a 3 day week (anyone else lived through the Heath years ?)

When I worked in my sandwich year, in 1986, the office building had blackout blinds still fitted. I was told they had been installed during the 3-day week, as the company was exempt as strategic national industry.

There was an operations room 7 floors up - apparently IRA bombs would only blow out up to the 6th floor. The ops room had a panic button to Special Branch ...

Different era.....

BoredofBrexit · 25/11/2016 11:36

So, RTB, no winnings for your Turn Hill gamblers to pick up then...why do you think the Cons held?

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 11:36

It will be very interesting to see how low other Tories will stoop, putting career and party before country.

With the odd honourable exception like Ken Clarke, I would think that would be most of them.

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 11:41

Since 1999, the UK has lost just 57 EU Council votes out of 2,601. If the idea is to depend on Trump's goodwill, I wonder how often the UK will lose and just have to lump it.

This won't matter - a significant number of Tories would tow the UK across the Atlantic if they could. Anything the US does is better than anything done elsewhere, in their book.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 11:47

Lh iirc, Murdoch's papers used to demonise anyone anti- EU, hence keeping the Tory swivel-eyed wing just a nasty nuisance, off-stage.

The overall business benefit of the EU to him ended when they decided (despite all the UK resistance) to crack down a bit on wealthy offshore tax-dodgers and shine a light on murkier areas of tax havens.

Murdoch has the power to move the Overton window substantially.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 11:49

Fox is said to be one of the Tory Brexiters who genuinely wish the UK to become the 51st state of the US.
So, they do want to be part of a superstate, just a different one.

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 11:52

Murdoch has the power to move the Overton window substantially.

Right now, but he won't last forever. At one time Maxwell was the villain of the piece, and he came to a very sticky end.

merrymouse · 25/11/2016 11:53

So, fast forward to 2016. If there were "dark pro-EC forces" ranging against MrsT, where are they now ? Have they changed their minds ? Are they less potent these days ? Or have they given up ?

That is a really interesting question.

Also re: Thatcher

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/margaret-thatcher-welfare-state-plans-cabinet-riot-a7438196.html

merrymouse · 25/11/2016 11:59

Anything the US does is better than anything done elsewhere, in their book.

Which bits of the US and for how long though?

RedToothBrush · 25/11/2016 11:59

Last night's by-elections:

Blakelaw (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 44.9% (-25.7)
LDEM: 39.4% (+21.4)
NFIR: 8.2% (+8.2)
CON: 7.4% (-4.0)
(LDs used to do well locally here, but that's a big shift towards them)

Valley (Tandridge) result:
LDEM: 51.6% (+16.6)
CON: 25.0% (-8.8)
UKIP: 16.8% (-0.4)
LAB: 6.6% (-7.3)

Castle (Carlisle) result:
LAB: 49.3% (+9.0)
CON: 27.3% (-1.4)
UKIP: 11.1% (-3.6)
LDEM: 7.2% (+1.0)
GRN: 5.1% (-3.2)

Warsop Carrs (Mansfield) result:
LAB: 47.9% (-25.3)
IND: 35.5% (+35.5)
UKIP: 12.4% (+12.4)
CON: 4.2% (+4.2)

Sovereign (Eastbourne) result:
CON: 65.2% (+24.4)
LDEM: 27.0% (+1.6)
LAB: 7.8% (+0.0)

Turn Hill (South Somerset) result:
CON: 51.4% (-6.6)
LDEM: 40.2% (+5.9)
LAB: 8.4% (+0.7)
(Perhaps disappointing from a Lib Dem PoV that they didn't get closer to taking the seat given the gains they have been making lately)

Reedley (Pendle) result:
CON: 51.1% (+8.4)
LAB: 46.6% (-7.6)
LDEM: 2.3% (+2.3)
CON GAIN (only gain of the night)

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 25/11/2016 12:01

Of course the 80s (for those too young) were a very turbulent time - only appreciated in the rear-view mirror by people like me (who did O-levels, A-levels, and degree through them).

The privatisations, the breaking of the unions (as always with pendulums, went too far), the loss of manufacturing, the rise of the service sector, yuppies, the Wapping dispute, inner-city riots (both reported, and hushed up !) and that's just with no thinking at all. Then globally we had the escalation of the cold war, Gorbachev, the fall of the Berlin Wall ...

To put things into context, as I entered the 1980s, becoming politically and historically aware, there were certain things that seemed just "part of life" and that would never change. As we entered the 21st century, they had all been swept away:

  • apartheid
-Berlin Wall -IRA bombings

it's hard to explain to the young (DS for example) just how much has changed.