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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

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RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 11:10

Harvestmoon, are those MPs also saying that experts are soothsayers and saying that the ORB are wrong, the BoE should no longer be independent and talking about putting in 2000 lords to force Brexit though as the High Court ruling is so wrong constitutionally. And just generally are seen crawling up the arse of a leader of another political party whilst criticising his own parties leadership. (Imagine if this was going on with a labour MP)

If so let me know, so I can crawl all over what they are up to as well.

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CeciledeVolanges · 24/11/2016 11:13

You can be clever without being wise, emotionally intelligent, sensible, broad minded, or having life experience. He has a lot f knowledge and is very good at finance/numbers.

TuckersBadLuck · 24/11/2016 11:16

Following the spring 2017 Budget and Finance Bill, Budgets will be delivered in the autumn, with the first one taking place in autumn 2017.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-statement-2016-documents/autumn-statement-2016#tax-1

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 11:19

I had not put two and two together LH. Very true.

Hammond is theoretically wise to have done that... except if art50 get delayed then that could get sticky.

I was thinking about the Great Repeal Act actually. Verhofstadt pointed out that a50 negotiations only have 14 - 15 months not two years as it will have to get through the EP. The Great Repeal Act is not even planned until May, so presuming that goes ahead then and a50 is triggered as planned in March, then the GRP has to get through parliament in a similar period or less. It ain't happening. Not with the sheer number of things it needs to look at. Without the GRP being ready for the day we Brexit... wow. Just wow.

Which does sort of suggest the High Court ruling that it needed to be passed before a50 can be triggered makes sense to avoid a constitutional melt down.

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LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 11:22

putting in 2000 lords

Didn't Lloyd George threaten to do the same ?

If so, it suggests that the current crisis has antecedents ....

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 11:25

Lucy Fisher ‏@LOS_Fisher
EXCL: Nigel Farage plans to move to the US with his wife, say friends, adding Ukip chief will feel "freer" abroad

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/go-west-farage-plans-new-life-in-us-kbtt33v2k

Can't read the article as pay walled. Is he going before 2019? Will he trigger an EU by-election? On what visa does he intend to go to the US (I am struggling to work out what he will qualify for unless he either has lots of cash in the bank or a firm job offer).

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RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 11:27

And the EU has just voted to block Turkey from joining. Say what Boris?

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/european-parliament-votes-to-block-turkeys-attempts-to-join-eu-a7436256.html

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Peregrina · 24/11/2016 11:31

I don't doubt that Farage's money will take loud enough to get him a visa. Can't wait for him to go.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 11:40

www.ft.com/mair
Thomas Mair: The making of a neo-Nazi killer
What drove the murderer of Labour MP Jo Cox to strike in the days before the EU referendum?

Well this FT long read does not stray away from making the big political connection.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/11/far-right-terrorist-murdered-jo-cox-so-when-cobra-meeting
A far right terrorist murdered jo cox. So when is the cobra meeting?

Neither does this newstateman article.

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Peregrina · 24/11/2016 11:44

Courtesy of a link in the Metro, Farage article in full. I have cut out the gurning photos, for reasons of space, (and taste.) Sorry my italics failed, so I have put the whole article below the dotted line.

----------------------
He said that he wanted his country back but now Nigel Farage is planning to abandon it in favour of a new life in the United States. The interim Ukip leader, who is due to hand over the reins to a permanent replacement on Monday, has told friends that he is preparing to emigrate with his wife, Kirsten. Despite a long-held interest in the US, he has felt tied to Westerham, his home town in Kent, and his family in Britain. His roles as an MEP and leader of Ukip have also made it difficult to be based abroad.
Now he is ready to make the leap across the Atlantic and would feel “freer” from public attention living abroad, according to confidants. They spoke of Mr Farage’s intentions after Donald Trump, the president-elect, tweeted that he would do “a great job” as British ambassador to the US, riling the government, which has repeatedly insisted that the Ukip leader would not be handed a formal role.
Asked yesterday whether he would back Ukip’s interim leader for ambassador, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the pro-Brexit Tory MP, said that while Mr Farage’s relationship with Mr Trump could be beneficial for Britain, he was not sure that the Ukip leader should be ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary, the post’s full title.
^“Mr Farage is certainly extraordinary in his own way but I think that being plenipotentiary as well may be a bit too much,” Mr Rees-Mogg said.
The interim Ukip leader was the first British politician to congratulate Mr Trump in person last week, with the pair posing outside a golden door at Trump Tower in New York.^
Last night Mr Farage celebrated the US election result and his contribution to the Brexit campaign at a party thrown for him by friends at the Ritz in London. It was hosted by the Ukip donor Arron Banks, his aide Andy Wigmore and Lord Pearson of Rannoch, the Ukip peer. Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay, 82, the twins who own The Daily Telegraph, Richard Desmond, 64, owner of the Daily Express, and pro-Brexit MPs were among 120 guests. Fewer than ten Ukip figures were invited, however, which “tells its own story”, Mr Wigmore said. Mr Farage’s relations with some factions of the party and its governing body have soured.
The Ukip leader was presented with a silver salver of Ferrero Rocher, the chocolates jocularly associated with diplomatic parties. Addressing guests from a grand staircase, Mr Farage said that 2016 “will stand out as one of those great historic years — the election of The Donald was something of a completely different order”.
^To those unhappy at the developments, he added: “I’ve got some really bad news for you. It’s going to get a bloody sight worse next year.”
Despite last night’s jubilance, friends report that Mr Farage, 52, is concerned about life in Britain. He has not appeared in public with his family for more than 18 months after anti-Ukip protesters chased his wife and daughters out of the Queen’s Head pub in Downe, Kent, where Mr Farage and his family were having Sunday lunch. His daughters, then aged 15 and 10, were said to have fled in terror and were escorted home by police. The mob attacked the car in which Mr Farage and his wife tried to escape. Last year Mr Farage broke down as he described how his children — he also has two sons in their 20s — had been bullied because of his job.^
^In his home town he is said to be “very well known and popular”, but he has complained that a visit to the butcher can take more than half an hour as friendly residents stop him to chat. Further afield in Kent the reaction is understood to be more hostile at times. Mr Farage has told friends that he cannot go out for a drink as people can start unpleasant confrontations.
As life in Britain has become harder, his ties with the US have strengthened. Allies insist that he has spoken to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office about his meeting with Mr Trump. Asked about his visit to the tycoon’s Manhattan home last week, Mr Farage may have given a hint about relocating. “If I were rich I wouldn’t be living in the middle of New York,” he said, “I’d be out in Maine, somewhere coastal.”
The photo of the meeting was shared thousands of times on social media after the Ukip chief tweeted it. Mr Wigmore, who took it, has admitted having sold it to a celebrity picture agency.^
He said he had been bombarded with calls from media organisations seeking his permission to reproduce the photo. To halt the stream of requests, Mr Wigmore sold the snap to Splash pictures. “We’re going to make a fortune for charity,” he said, pledging to give the proceeds to the Royal Commonwealth Society.
This morning Philip Hammond played down the chances of the government turning to Mr Farage for help. Speaking on ITV’s Good Morning Britain the chancellor said: “If I ever need advice from Nigel Farage I have got his number and I will give him a call — but tell him not to hold his breath.”^

BigChocFrenzy · 24/11/2016 11:49

Rich bastard with friends in high places (or low places) - should easily get permission to stay in the US.

I read shortly after Trump's election that Farage apparently said he'd jump at working for Trump (how high, boss ?) and that he would happily get a US passport if so.
Very patriotic

I think the UK is not a sufficiently big or lucrative pond for Farage, now he's experienced the US (and diminished the Uk)
Also politically, large swathes of US opinion are against any form of welfare, so he'd feel right at home.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 11:53

I find it hard to have sympathy for Farage. He has brought the same kind of unhappiness to thousands of others across the country with a rise in racist, homophobic and bigoted abuse.

But to him and his family he feels persecuted and this only legitimises stuff in his own head. And makes him more extreme. So really unproductive in reality.

His hate has breed more hate. I'm not sure what else he really expected. I don't condone it in the slightest, but it is a bit like poking a bear repeatedly on the nose and expecting it to do nothing and then wondering why it bites your left arm off. He is far from a passive 'victim'.

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LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 12:23

I can't say I'm unhappy that Farage is choosing to settle down in a country with more guns than people ....

whatwouldrondo · 24/11/2016 12:33

I hadn't realised he lived in Westerham. Westerham is a pleasant Kent town, the population are overwhelmingly Middle Class, and in an area that was not overwhelmingly Leave. Both Tunbridge Wells and Bromley voted to remain. It is not UKIP territory at all. I always assumed he lived nearer the Medway towns where I am sure that he would have an easier life, as he would in the towns opposite on the Thames where UKIP are stronger. Not quite so pleasant and leafy though, so he doesn't want to live in the communities he courts. Hmm

PattyPenguin · 24/11/2016 12:54

Wouldn't it be fitting if Farage moved over to the US, only to be dropped by the Donald once it becomes obvious that Nige isn't actually of any use?

whatwouldrondo · 24/11/2016 12:56

Tony Blair, misquoted and does realise he is unpopular, he has no intention of entering mainstream party politics. Looks as though what he has in mind is a think tank
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/11/tony-blair-s-unfinished-business

whatwouldrondo · 24/11/2016 12:57

However oh the irony of his recognising that the Press would go out to destroy him. Boots on the other foot now......

Peregrina · 24/11/2016 13:07

Red - your post reminds me of the time as a four year old when I went and poked the wasps congregating on a window sill. Yes, I got stung.

I felt sorry for Farage's children, threatening them comes in the category of two wrongs don't make a right, but he has done so much damage to this country. He won't be able to clear off quick enough as far as I am concerned

LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 13:24

Tony Blair, misquoted and does realise he is unpopular, he has no intention of entering mainstream party politics. Looks as though what he has in mind is a think tank

I think that man has tanks on the brain.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 13:28

I always assumed he lived nearer the Medway towns where I am sure that he would have an easier life, as he would in the towns opposite on the Thames where UKIP are stronger. Not quite so pleasant and leafy though, so he doesn't want to live in the communities he courts.

Neither is coastal Maine Trumpland.

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harvestmoon32 · 24/11/2016 14:29

*Harvestmoon, are those MPs also saying that experts are soothsayers and saying that the ORB are wrong, the BoE should no longer be independent and talking about putting in 2000 lords to force Brexit though as the High Court ruling is so wrong constitutionally. And just generally are seen crawling up the arse of a leader of another political party whilst criticising his own parties leadership. (Imagine if this was going on with a labour MP)

If so let me know, so I can crawl all over what they are up to as well.*

No RTB, I was only saying I don't think MPs spend time wherever they are finding out about the life experiences of other MPs constituents. Feel free to carry on crawling over JRM's love-in with Farage (eurggghhhh!). This thread is a fascinating read.

Cameron ought to be so ashamed of what he's created.....

LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 14:35

Drifting (again) ... so presumably, whenever a government spokesperson tries to justify any policy with "expert evidence" there is a good precedent for saying "oh do fuck off with your experts" ?

I find myself pondering how medical and healthcare advice will be trusted now ? We've never really recovered from the MMR scare.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 14:49

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
Poll finding of the week. LEAVE voters more likely to NOT to wash their pants/knickers after each wear

I have no idea why someone thought to commission this YouGov survey and why they think its important.

Part of me think pointing out that Leavers wash their underpants less is not particularly helpful if you go on the economics of what it costs to run a washing machine and the demographics the leave vote. Its not that they are dirtier as Smithson seems to indicate its just its not cheap to wash everything straight away nor might people have the time if they are struggling to juggle work and make ends meet.

But then I looked a bit further its a bit, well, not perhaps what you might think.

And what Smithson does not show is the full data set which is here:
d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n8g0ptj6mc/InternalResults_161116_WashingR_W.pdf

Labour voters in 2015 look the cleanest, And Kippers don't appear to wear pants (see the not applicable line). And the dirtiest by party voter? Those smelly Lib Dems. Obviously tarnished by the hipster and student vote. Noting here that 0% of 18-25 year olds wear jeans just once before washing them and 23% wear them 10 times or more (and 4% don't know how often they wash their pants).

Pant washing seems to be particularly poor amongst Londoners, rather than Northerners too.

No surprises that the biggest differences are along male and female lines and not how anyone voted though.

I think the take away point of the day is next time you come across a Kipper in real life, is to remember there is a 9% chance they are wearing no pants. And if you meet a Lib Dem in real life, is to wonder when the last time they washed was but at least there is a 99% chance they are wearing pants.

Obviously this is a crucial part of understanding voters and what appeals to them and how you might encourage them to vote at the next GE. Bringing back Danny Baker and the Daz doorstep challenge and you might be onto a winner as a party leader...

(The published cover story of the survey is here yougov.co.uk/news/2016/11/24/nearly-one-five-men-wear-same-pants-least-twice-wa/ Notably it says nothing about voting habit, but YouGov have broken it down in this way. This is perhaps the real point of the story. It says everything you need to know about Big Data and how much electoral strategists know about you and your personal life. Scary stuff. Nothing is private anymore).

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.
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LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 14:59

"The problem with big data is that it hides small details"

(My best example of "big data" is actually Victorian, and how Dr. John Snow was able to mash up maps and death statistics to realise that Cholera was linked to water. Clean water - no cholera)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow

That's a good story to have in your pocket if you are getting the heavy sell and the "big data is the new shiny" line.