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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

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RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 15:17

I find myself pondering how medical and healthcare advice will be trusted now ? We've never really recovered from the MMR scare.

It can't be in all honesty. Huge enormous chucks of it.

Seriously, this isn't nonsense. Read Ben Goldacre and Margaret McCartney for good scientific and practical common sense in depth reasons why. They, however, are the complete opposite of the anti-expert position of people like JRM who are actually promoting more bias and flawed logic by promoting the influence of lobbying and power of private health care. They promote the need MORE not less evidence based medicine, that is properly assessed for bias and to allow patients to make up their own minds rather than be unduly influenced and pressured (sometimes unethically).

Its a bloody minefield.

In all honesty I can understand why people are fed up of 'experts' for this reason. But as I say, the right wing response is the one that is feasting upon these flaws for personal gain rather this rather than fixing the problems for the good of the public as a whole.

My personal bug with this, lies with Elective CS for 'no medical reason' where I can bore the tits off everyone on MN about it. (And have spent quite literally years doing so) When you look at the data and research which underlines the point that 'for no medical reason' usually actually applies to mental health but this is not classified as such. Hospital policy, many doctors/midwives and political rhetoric fails to reflect what is actually represented in data. And don't get me started on the popular press opinion on this.

To further complete matters, some people now automatically suggest having an ELCS at the slightest expression of anxiety, which is also the wrong thing to do as it doesn't look at women as individuals and explore each case properly on its merits to decide if this is appropriate, as we are so used to this one size fits all mentality to health.

My personal position is, do your own research and homework and don't automatically assume what you are told is gospel and unquestionable. There is often more than one way to skin a cat without going outside NICE guidelines and crippling the NHS financially in the process.

Controversial I know. But I'm also not an anti-vaxer either.

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missmoon · 24/11/2016 15:24

Red, I've been meaning to say this for a while, but a few years back I was struggling to get an elective CS approved (having had an emergency CS with my first), against what seemed like very stringent but irrational hospital policies. At the time I came across your posts on Mumsnet on this, and all the information you shared was invaluable in helping me argue my case, and I got my CS in the end (there is nothing like being armed with facts!). I have also shared the information with other friends going through the same thing. Thank you! It was really nice to see you again on these threads, as it looks like we also share an interest in politics. I check this thread very often (more than once a day, sigh), although only comment occasionally.

LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 15:28

To be honest, experts have never really mixed well with politics ... look at the saga of Professor David Nutt when he dared to point out the truth in the face of the established political view. I can still remember listening to the dreadful Jacqui Smith prattling on unchallenged saying (something like) "we can't just go around making laws based on evidence - we have to respond to peoples feelings too".

Peregrina · 24/11/2016 15:34

I find myself pondering how medical and healthcare advice will be trusted now ? We've never really recovered from the MMR scare.

I don't agree with this. I think the take up now is around 95%. I think this is one of those stories that the Press like to go on about. Each time they will drag up Wakefield but his research was in 1998, i.e. getting on for 20 years ago. A significant number of parents now taking their children for vaccination will have been children themselves then (e.g. DIL 2) and would never have heard of him otherwise.

I would blame the Media/Press again for all those 'breakthrough against ....' type stories, which may stir up false hope, and cause disappointment. How often for example, does the failure rate of IVF get reported, and the sums of money couples spend trying for a baby?

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 15:43

No need to thank me missmoon. I'm glad its helped people as the situation is nuts. It infuriates me, and I only see it going backwards not forwards with the current climate. I'm very worried about how this will pan out in future.

The mere fact that women who have ELCS for mental health reasons have it recorded as 'maternal request', 'no clinical indication', 'no medical reason' rather than under the label of for 'mental health' as there is no such classification - despite the NICE guidelines (which do the same damn thing whilst at the same time pointing out the importance of the mental health) tells the whole story. It stops women from getting the appropriate help which includes the support not need an ELCS says it all doesn't it?

I am just glad I'm happy with one as I sure as hell would not like to try and go through the system in the next few years for the same reasons.

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Peregrina · 24/11/2016 15:48

I am just worried about how Maternity services generally will pan out over the next few years.

Which takes us back to the money for the NHS. It could be found and would be found if the will was there. Having said that, with people living longer and advances in medical treatment, I don't think we can necessarily carry on as we are doing. Again it needs a proper debate, which just isn't happening.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 15:57

To be honest, experts have never really mixed well with politics ... look at the saga of Professor David Nutt when he dared to point out the truth in the face of the established political view.

I think you hit the nail on the head. How much of things are political and how much of it is experts? How can you tell the difference? You have to have a very good understanding of information to know the difference. Most doctors are useless when it comes to statistics yet they spent huge parts of their day explaining this type of thing to patients.
I love this article on the subject:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28166019

And even then we are vulnerable to the way in which data is presented, because this in itself influences our behaviour even with the same information!

Professor David Nutt is not the only one who has come up against similar resistance for going against the 'political' opinion rather than the one backed up by evidence.

All we are seeing now, is politicians trying to further undermine this and get more power as a result.

Only today the headlines are that Trump intends to stop NASA doing any more studies on climate change by 'clamping down on political research'. This is actually the exact opposite happening. Its a politicisation of science.

Which is why I am just so worried by this plan to remove the Royal Charters of various Universities and replace it with a body that lacks one. Its too open and vulnerable to abuse.

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InformalRoman · 24/11/2016 15:59

On a lighter note ... anyone seen the latest Private Eye cover?

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.
RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 16:02

I have my own views on why the NHS wasn't even mentioned once in the autumn statement yesterday. I think Hammond is very keen to drum the message home about how much Brexit will cost us financially. I've said before I think that the NHS is the one untouchable thing when it comes to politics. If given the choice the NHS or Brexit, I think there will be a significant number of people changing their minds.

This however, still relies on there being enough Conservatives who don't want to simply privatise or destroy the NHS.

Its either brinkmanship or a desire to end the NHS on the part of Hammond.

Right now, I'm not sure which it is.

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LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 16:06

The problem is, you can prove anything with facts ...

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 16:06

No No No! You've missed the scope.

'Remoaners' now have their very own bus.

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.
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RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 16:11

It was interesting that Laura Kuenssburg was making the point yesterday repeatedly that Hammond had hinted that the triple lock and the NHS ring fencing might go next year.

I had a great bun fight with someone on MN about how the triple lock was unsustainable especially if Leave won pre-referendum. So I'm half looking forward to gloating rights on that particular shower of shit, WHEN (not if) it happens. If only to soften the horribleness of it.

Huge parts of my generation are unlikely to be able to retire at all.

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Peregrina · 24/11/2016 16:15

The Tories may be mistaken on the triple lock, thinking that by keeping it we pensioners will still vote for them. I for one have never voted for them and have no intention of starting now, and secondly most of us have children and grandchildren and can see the difficulties facing them, so would be happy to see the money shared out more fairly. I would be fuming mind, if it was stopped and it just went on tax cuts for the already wealthy.

InformalRoman · 24/11/2016 16:16

LH - Stewart Lee is proving to have some very pertinent comments.

Paul Nuttalls of the UKIPs is a favourite of mine:

missmoon · 24/11/2016 16:30

I don't get why Labour are supporting the triple lock, is it pensioner poverty? It just doesn't fit with the rest of their narrative on taxes and struggling families etc. Isn't inter-generational inequality a big issue with Labour voters?

LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 16:30

I think something which rarely gets mentioned - possibly because it's hard to grasp intuitively (I know a whole business which is losing millions because they didn't get it) is the changing bulges in demographics, and the people who make up the demographics.

The best way to explain it is to say "the 50 year olds of today are not the same as the 50 year olds of (say) 2006".

The problem is almost all data and predictions works on previously accrued data - or more accurately stereotypes.

For example, I am nothing like my parents - economically, socially, culturally and - most important politically - were when they are the age I am now. But politics and politicians are still trying to "connect" with demographics which aren't there any more.

(The company that lost millions by the way, had an opportunity to develop an internet presence back in 2004. However they "felt" that their target demographic of 50+ "didn't use the internet", and so they passed. Of course, come 2014, and almost all 50 year olds (who were 40 in 2004) are online, and said company is now playing catchup.)

Basically, I think a lot of peoples views of demographics - regardless of what the data says (those pesky experts again) is extremely emotional, and best encapsulated by the Werthers stereotypical view of a "Grandad".

Again, what this means in real life and for the future ? Who knows ? But it looks like it's wrong footing some political parties.

RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 16:30

"My name's Paul Nuttals of the UKIPs...."

Oh that's going to get used a lot when he's leader.

(Btw do you know his nickname in UKIP? Its Mussolini)

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Mistigri · 24/11/2016 16:49

Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving ...

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.
RedToothBrush · 24/11/2016 16:53

Oooooh Zac Goldsmith has been a naughty boy. Again. He has claimed he has the support of Caroline Lucas in a leaflet:

www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2016/11/24/response-to-zac-goldsmith%E2%80%99s-campaign-leaflet/

They are not impressed.

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Peregrina · 24/11/2016 17:20

most important politically - were when they are the age I am now.
I get this. My parents at my current age acted the same way as I now see people ten years older than me acting.

Peregrina · 24/11/2016 17:21

What can the Green party do about Goldsmith's campaign leaflet though? If it's gone out, it's gone out.

LurkingHusband · 24/11/2016 17:43

What can the Green party do about Goldsmith's campaign leaflet though? If it's gone out, it's gone out.

I think it's now an established "thing" that there's no comeback for lying in electioneering.

Best comeback is to print and circulate a leaflet suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn wholeheartedly supports Zac too ?

I look forward to Kippers squealing about being the victims of lies ...

Peregrina · 24/11/2016 17:56

I don't think that Richmond Park is all that favourably inclined to Labour, so saying that Corbyn endorsed Zac would fall on deaf ears. The best thing would be to say that Zac had changed his mind over Heathrow expansion - that would definitely get them fired up.

The kippers aren't standing, so it will be difficult to grumble about them being lied about.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 24/11/2016 18:07

Euro MPs vote to freeze Turkey EU membership talks

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38090121

Wasn't Turkey joining the EU part of leaves project fear?

lalalonglegs · 24/11/2016 18:42

I'm leafleting for Sarah Olney on Saturday - hopefully someone will have a load of stickers to put on her flyers saying that as well as being an odious Islamophobe and Brexiteer, Zac Goldsmith is a liar and has not been endorsed by the Green Party. Or, if the Green Party would like to produce a leaflet to that effect, I would be happy to pop it through some doors at the same time.

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