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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

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Thread gallery
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4everclever · 22/11/2016 20:36

'Medical Tourism' - the phenomenon of people travelling abroad to access medical treatment - has received increasing attention in academic and popular media. This paper reports findings from a study examining effect of inbound and outbound medical tourism on the UK NHS, by estimating volume of medical tourism and associated costs and benefits. A mixed methods study it includes analysis of the UK International Passenger Survey (IPS); interviews with 77 returning UK medical tourists, 63 policymakers, NHS managers and medical tourism industry actors policymakers, and a review of published literature. These informed costing of three types of treatments for which patients commonly travel abroad: fertility treatment, cosmetic and bariatric surgery. Costing of inbound tourism relied on data obtained through 28 Freedom-of-Information requests to NHS Foundation Trusts. Findings demonstrate that contrary to some popular media reports, far from being a net importer of patients, the UK is now a clear net exporter of medical travellers. In 2010, an estimated 63,000 UK residents travelled for treatment, while around 52,000 patients sought treatment in the UK. Inbound medical tourists treated as private patients within NHS facilities may be especially profitable when compared to UK private patients, yielding close to a quarter of revenue from only 7% of volume in the data examined. Costs arise where patients travel abroad and return with complications.

Analysis also indicates possible savings especially in future health care and social costs averted. These are likely to be specific to procedures and conditions treated. UK medical tourism is a growing phenomenon that presents risks and opportunities to the NHS. To fully understand its implications and guide policy on issues such as NHS global activities and patient safety will require investment in further research and monitoring. Results point to likely impact of medical tourism in other universal public health systems.

4everclever · 22/11/2016 20:37

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(13)61675-X/abstract

Health tourism and the NHS: facts or fiction?
"Following UK Prime Minister David Cameron's speech on immigration control, on March 25, 2013, stating that the NHS is a National not an International Health Service,1 the Department of Health announced in July a public consultation on health tourism. Proposals mainly relate to the introduction of a flat fee, termed “migrant health levy”, of either £200 or £500 per annum and are built on the idea of migrants—specifically those remaining in the UK for more than 6 months and less than 5 years, and originating from a country outside the European Economic Area (EEA)—making a fair contribution."/

HyacinthFuckit · 22/11/2016 20:38

Where GO is superior to TM is that he isn't hard Brexit. It's not that he seems ok. He doesn't. It's that he doesn't seem deranged.

Peregrina · 22/11/2016 20:41

May didn't seem deranged at first. Or was it just because we didn't know about her, so couldn't form a proper opinion?

TheBathroomSink · 22/11/2016 20:42

I don't have HBO, but I quite like watching old HIGNFY repeats on Dave as sort of time-travelling escapism.

I love Dave. I continue to pay stupid money to Sky every month just so I can keep Dave and all the channels which have Homes Under The Hammer on never-ending loops.

The West Wing was a masterpiece until Sorkin got too hooked on pills and then it went downhill because the new writers didn't have the same feel for it (and they lost Rob Lowe) but up until Zoe got kidnapped it was amazing, and that was on network TV. With the extra freedom on cable (and if they don't let it go on too long) it could be awesome.

TheBathroomSink · 22/11/2016 20:43

May didn't seem deranged at first - because she was up against Johnson, Gove and Leadsom. I would have looked like a sensible choice in that bunch.

SwedishEdith · 22/11/2016 20:46

"I love Dave. I continue to pay stupid money to Sky every month just so I can keep Dave and all the channels which have Homes Under The Hammer on never-ending loops."

They're all on Freeview as well.

Unicornsarelovely · 22/11/2016 20:46

Don't forget Fox who thought he had a shot at the leadership too so many deranged cabinet ministers.

ImpYCelyn · 22/11/2016 20:50

I vote TheBathroomSink for PM "because together I look like a sensible choice". Who wouldn't win with that on a bus? Grin

Kaija · 22/11/2016 20:51

"May didn't seem deranged at first. Or was it just because we didn't know about her, so couldn't form a proper opinion?"

It's all relative. I remember at the time of the Tory conference thinking "how on earth could we have felt relieved when May became PM", then seeing a clip of Andrea Leadsom wiffling on inanely about jam or some such, and it all came flooding back...

SwedishEdith · 22/11/2016 20:59

Looking on Louise Mensch's Twitter I see there's some activity about the count in Wisconsin - it's very tight and, at one stage it was reported that

Suzan Eraslan @SuzanEraslan
The numbers display that in 3 precincts in Outagamie County, all won by DT, more votes were counted for President than cast. #AuditTheVote

although corrected with"Okay, this is very significant. Outagamie County released the official vote tally at 10:30am CT, the discrepancy below no longer exists. 1/xdan solo added"

Was Mensch not a big Farage and Trump supporter?

TheBathroomSink · 22/11/2016 21:06

swedish - no aerial (and I am a bit partial to some Sky Atlantic) although now the kids are older I am coming round to the idea of getting shot and just keeping Freesat/Amazon/Netflix. I have won the Disney Channel war, just Nickelodeon to go.

Who wouldn't win with that on a bus? - Me, honestly, I'd be terrible. I can't do public speaking and I don't like people, and I am snarky all the time!! But thanks for the vote of confidence Impy

amaravatti · 22/11/2016 21:07

karenzach.com/president-fraud-resistance-fighters/
Newspapers and serious news outlets need to cease quoting Trump’s tweets in their news stories. To quote those tweets is to render journalism useless and to validate the propaganda machine he has put in place.
?

RedToothBrush · 22/11/2016 21:07

GO would be better than TM. At least he manages to get the train out of the South.

However we'd probably get Mr Liam Fox just to spite me personally.

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RedToothBrush · 22/11/2016 21:12

Was Mensch not a big Farage and Trump supporter?

No. She was/is #NeverTrump. She has Leave.Eu sympathies but is not that hardcore.

I've also heard that a court in WI decided that the boundary changes the Republican made were unconstitutional. I think this relates to Senate vote. They ruled that the boundaries stacked up democrat votes into certain areas so they were effectively wasted. This can be appealed at the Supreme Court. But yes there is definitely something dodgy about WI.

I'll see if I can find the link for it.

There are calls to audit the vote nationally but they are not obliged to, nor is there a system to.

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Sol1dGoldCunt · 22/11/2016 21:15

I think May always seem deranged. Just less deranged than the other lunatics in the asylum. Now I'm just wondering if she'd just had some meds at a different time Grin

RedToothBrush · 22/11/2016 21:17

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/wisconsin-gerrymandering-district-court-2016-election-decision?CMP=share_btn_tw
This is guardian article on the subject which is more understand to Brits than the original I read.

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squishysquirmy · 22/11/2016 21:21

The bathroomsink: can't do public speaking; don't like people; snarky all the time You just won my vote!

I get your point about GO being more likely to go for soft Brexit. I can't see him handling it competently though, but then TM isn't either. Are there any other alternatives? At all? I can't think of any senior tories.
My only three criteria would be: Not obsessed with hard Brexit. Vaguely competent. Has a conscience (even if its buried very deep).

squishysquirmy · 22/11/2016 21:23

I mean I can't think of any senior toies who could replace May - not that I can't think of any at all iyswim.

SwedishEdith · 22/11/2016 21:26

Ah, right, about LM. Her account was closed to non-followers for a bit last night, assumed some deletions going on. (I don't usually look but someone tweeted about it).

TheBathroomSink · 22/11/2016 21:26

I long since unfollowed LM but while she was on the rabid Tory Brexit wing, she has been fairly consistent that Trump is an arse, and she doesn't like NF because he gets more attention than she does.

I'm unsure reading those various twitter timelines if the authorities can look into vote counts without HC requesting it, all seems a bit vague at the moment.

squishysquirmy · 22/11/2016 21:29

amaravetti: that's an interesting link. The comparisons to abused children seem a bit off, If you aren’t yet worried, you are brain dead is spot on though.

MissMarplesHat · 22/11/2016 21:37

.

RedToothBrush · 22/11/2016 21:44

I think we need to look at the whole thread by dan solo (I won't post the pix as you can get the idea without, and if you really want, look them up on twitter:

Suzan Eraslan ‏@SuzanEraslan
The numbers display that in 3 precincts in Outagamie County, all won by DT, more votes were counted for President than cast. #AuditTheVote

dan solo ‏@dansolomon
Okay, this is very significant. Outagamie County released the official vote tally at 10:30am CT, the discrepancy below no longer exists. 1/x
You can see the Grand Chute 1-3 results here. All 1126 extra votes were for Trump. Clinton’s total is the same. 2/x
Same deal in Hortonville. Trump’s number down by 400+ votes, Clinton’s unchanged. Ballots cast now matches votes counted. 3/x
What this means is that Trump’s margin of victory in one WI county with fewer than 100,000 voters is now down by 1,500 votes, about 1.5% 4/x
This is significant a state that he won by around 22,000 votes in the initial count. But it only matters if Clinton calls for recount. 5/x
To be clear: Certified results in just ONE WI county bring Trump’s margin of victory down almost 7%. We don’t know what about others. 6/x
We don’t know why the initial tally had more votes tallied than ballots cast, but in this county, that’s now been corrected. 7/x
After a full recount, Outagamie County may end up an outlier. We don’t know enough yet. But the margin is small and getting smaller. 8/x
This only matters if Clinton asks for a recount. She has to decide to do that by tomorrow. Her campaign has given no indication it will. 9/9

@davidgreenwald has also been looking at Wisconsin going this is not right, over the last week or so.
@Greg_Palast has previously said that the exit polls were NOT WRONG but something else was going on.

So lets go off the Exit Polls as tweeted by Lord Ashcroft on the night:

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft Nov 8
Pennsylvania Clinton +5. Arizona Trump +3. Colorado Clinton +6. Michigan Clinton +5. Wisconsin. Clinton +6. Iowa Trump +3.

If that discrepancy was repeated across the state, I am led to believe that Wisconsin would be within 1% of the exit poll.

(Incidentally also worth pointing out that contrary to opinion virtually all the Brexit opinion polls WERE within the margin of error and therefore NOT incorrect. And that the US refused to recognise the Ukraine election results as the exit polls did not match and they regarded exit polls as reliable).

SOMETHING is off. I don't know how much or to what extent and how many states affected, but Trump's campaign openly admitted to 'voter suppression campaigns' and there is now an outright case of gerrymandering.

DH pointed out that in the UK, we have to have polling stations per capita, votes are not all counted the same way, spoiled ballots are verified, laws are consistent for all voters, voter rights are better protected and voter intimidation better policed. Plus we can audit votes because they are all paper - electronic voting in some places in the same is not recorded and can not be rechecked after the fact.

Our system is far more robust and far more accountable. The US are EXTREMELY vulnerable to election rigging.

Yep, that word again. Accountability.

They need to audit the vote - if only for the next election and to give the democrats a fighting chance to get to work in the courts to stop this shit.

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RedToothBrush · 22/11/2016 21:46

Anna Soubry, seems sane enough as does Dominic Grieve....

This is why they would never be leader.

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