'The Brexit Arms' is now open. Friendly cosy pub with log fire for leavers & remainers to chat & ponder life, the universe, & Brexit.

[surferjet]

You are all most welcome

Nope.

Looking at the WTO website, we didn't join under the auspices of the EU....the WTO didn't exist until 01/01/95, when it took over from GATT, of which we had been a member since 1948, well before the EU. Methinks Azevedo needs to do some reading.

So what's your problem Manon? What do you think is going to happen?

Yeah, what does Azevedo know? UK would have to negotiate a WTO deal as a stand alone country for the first time. This could take years and the procedure to be followed won't please Brexiters as they would also have to look for agreements and respect rules.

According to Peter Ungphakorn, a senior information officer with the WTO Secretariat until 2015, some key issues could be politically contentious among the WTO’s members, currently 162 countries.
On top of that, recent negotiating experience suggests that willingness to accommodate each other’s interests quickly is a scarce commodity in the WTO and even a final agreement cannot be guaranteed.
If that is true, then post-Brexit, the UK can expect a long and rough ride.

Jaws what do you think is going to happen to our trade after Brexit?

I mean, what do you think 'a long and rough ride is'?

I was simply correcting a claim that wasn't entirely accurate.

What do I think will happen? Well if we have a soft Brexit - EEA + customs union then nothing much will change trade-wise.

If we have a hard Brexit we will need an interim deal with the EU or we will be on non-preferential WTO tariffs until we renegotiate a) our WTO membership and b) trade deals with the world, which will take some years, at great cost to the consumer.

WW I have no idea and nor have you. UK had the best deal there was, now thrown down the toilet. Nobody knows, that's the reason why the government are making secret promises to Nissan and other companies are queuing up asking for reassurance while they make alternative plans to move. All we know is the opinion of those who do know more than us, the now vilified "experts" who have warned of the potentially catastrophic consequences of this step into the unknown for many months.

and the uncertainty continues as TM and her Brexiteers improvise as they go.

Well you must think something awful is going to happen. What is it?

What's wrong with the WTO tariffs? Ruth Lea says : 'It is clear that the UK-EU default relationship would be under the WTO rules, by which many countries, including China, very successfully conduct much of their trade. So there is absolutely no reason to believe Britain would be ‘isolated’ in the global trading system.'

Saying 'we have no idea' isn't true. There are various options. We also have what you consider to be a worst case option. So it's not like nobody knows anything. There are alternatives.

Methinks Mr Azevêdo understands that the UK's membership of the WTO perfectly well. The UK is a member both individually and collectively within the EU.

The trade commitments made by the UK to other WTO member states (its schedules - for industrial goods, services and agricultural products) are incorporated within those agreed for the EU. The UK would need to renegotiate a new set of tariffs, because leaving the EU will affect the EU's own commitments to other member states.

These new tariffs would then need to be agreed by the other 163 WTO members. Which may be easy to do for some goods, but may well be contentious for others - e.g. agricultural products. And for services, for instance, whilst it could be straightforward the legalities are expected to take a long, long time to sort out. It also depends on whether the other WTO members want to expedite negotiations. Or not.

GATT (in a modified form) still exists as an umbrella agreement for goods and GATS covers services.

No-one can predict what will happen until we know what kind EU deal we are going for. If we go for a hard Brexit, quite apart from the problem of renegotiating our entire trade portfolio + new trade deals, we will have to deal with loss of the single market membership/customs union.

The EU still accounts for 45% of our exports (by comparision, the US is 16.6% and China 4.5%.)

Sir Andrew Cahn, fomer chief executive of UK Trade and Investment, stated that it was 'completely unrealistic' to think that the UK could negotiate free trade agreements with other countries to make up for lost access to the single market. 'At the very best the very best of the promised network of trade agreements would not be remotely on the scale of current trade through the single market'.

He warned that deals with US and China would take at least a decade. And pointed out that the US has not ratified a single trade deal in the last 5 years, and that China would extract a high price for access to its markets.

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of ECIPE, gave evidence to a Treasury Select Committee:

'Unfortunately, the realities are such that in a world where the UK trades 50:50 with the EU and the rest of the world, whatever trade we lose with Europe cannot be recreated with the rest of the world'.

'It is just not in the balance. The market access we would obtain from the free trade agreements would not equal the trade loss we would have with Europe. It is just a different scale. All in all, we need to do both'.

What is so bad about WTO tariffs again?

ww Years of uncertainty while we watch UK becoming increasingly isolated and intolerant, you know, at the pace we've seen for the last few months. Poverty and hardship as prices go up and people lose jobs, as we've started to see already. British universities becoming increasingly irrelevant as places of research and excellence, as collaborations with EU universities cease to happen and grants dry up, seeing researchers leave and are not replaced, as academics no longer feel welcome here. I could continue for pages... But you are the ones celebrating, and when asked all you have to say is "we've got our country back".

Can we just make it clear once again for the sake of those who love to fudge these things including, apparently, Sir Andrew Cahn: access to the single market is different to membership of the single market.

I'm sure you aren't suggesting we would no longer be able to buy anything from EU countries or sell anything to EU countries.

In the short term, before we have renegotiated preferential tariffs via new trade deals, we will be trading on default WTO tariffs - ie non-preferential, which will be expensive.

Azevedo pointed out in the interview linked above that WTO analysis indicates that non-preferential tariffs will cost the British consumer around £9billion a year. Roughly what we pay annually to the EU. That's on top of the price rises caused by the fall of the pound.

years of uncertainty while we watch UK becoming increasingly isolated and intolerant, you know, at the pace we've seen for the last few months.

No, not seeing this. No reason for the UK to be isolated - we are already reaching out beyond the EU and they are reaching out to us. Intolerant? No - that's just a Remainer dog whistle.

No Brexit effect in latest jobs data: BBC

Why would British universities become irrelevant? There is no reason for this. Most universities in the world are outside the EU, including some rather good ones.

You're just making stuff up.

'Access' is used in different ways. In that context Cahn was referring to membership, as is clear from the reference to 'trade through the single market' rather than 'with'. Everyone has access to the single market.

yeah, I am making up the concerns of every single university department in the UK, precisely...

I've read economists saying the drop in the pound so far more than deals with WTO default tariff differentials.

And the drop in the pound, related to the euro, should be watched carefully. It's going to make less of a difference with relation to EU goods than you think. And the euro isn't going anywhere pleasant any time soon. There are plenty of potholes ahead, sadly. I just hope the EU trundle bus doesn't reach them before we leave.

When peope's salaries depend on you believing what they say, I'm sceptical.

Ruth Lea on Brexit and WTO

I need to start making tea. I'd much rather have one of surfer's cheese and onion rolls and a packet of pork scratchings.