Does anyone else sense a change of mood re Brexit?

[twofingerstoGideon]

I was rather astounded following the referendum that politicians of all shades weren't making noises about Brexit needing parliamentary scrutiny etc., but at last - after almost four months - it's as if people are waking up, noticing the shambles and saying "Hang on a minute... I'm not sure we should be doing this..." It was shocking to see the lack of reaction to the xenophobia and the way politicians of all shades seemed to be saying we had to blindly obey the very slim majority. The lack of disgust expressed by the press/politicians about the barefaced lies used by the Leave campaign (not to mention that poster) was also mind-blowing.

Has anyone else noticed a change in the air? I'm starting to feel slightly hopeful for the first time since 24th June that the country isn't just going to jump off a cliff in order to follow 'the will of the people'.

Anyone else, or am I deluded?

smallfox - that would support my theory "We'd like to give State Aid to Nissan, but the nasy EU, of which we are still members, won't allow us to". So Article 50 has to be invoked now.

State Aid - doesn't that rather contradict the Tory philosophy of letting the market dictate?

I am not at all sure that the Government want Brexit to fail. I think TM illustrates the verb, I am firm, you are stubborn, she is pig-headed, only too well. She has said Brexit means Brexit and she intends to make a success of it, so she will wreck the Country to deliver Brexit, because she has become too pig-headed to change her tune.

Peregina Nissan actually have no option but that given the nature of their supply chain. I think they have already said, give us a deal or we quit. That's why May made a point of seeing them.

DH and I had a discussion about this at length last week. He thinks we won't leave the EU at all, but I am not of the same opinion.

His conclusion about the Nissan meeting was May had to give something firm. More firm than she has said to other people including her cabinet. I believe at the meeting were two other people from Nissan and two other people from the British government. I think that Green (May's closest friend in government) was one of them.

I think May made a promise she can't necessarily keep in the form of a complex deal on sectors that protect manufacturing.

DH thinks she said more and something rather different; her wording was that they could carry on trading exactly as they currently are one way or another. He thinks that this means she said that she would either get a deal or if a deal was not reachable she would keep us in the EU.

I stress I think he is more optimistic than I am, but we both agree she has revealed more of her plan to Nissan than the cabinet as she had to offer them something that was reassuring and seeing as the cabinet are still bickering and there seems to be no consensus on anything. It suggests she will do what she wants in the end rather than get consensus from the Cabinet.

Of course, Nissan might still not invest because they either don't trust May or think its too much of a risk.

Peregina Nissan actually have no option but that given the nature of their supply chain. I think they have already said, give us a deal or we quit. That's why May made a point of seeing them.

DH and I had a discussion about this at length last week. He thinks we won't leave the EU at all, but I am not of the same opinion.

His conclusion about the Nissan meeting was May had to give something firm. More firm than she has said to other people including her cabinet. I believe at the meeting were two other people from Nissan and two other people from the British government. I think that Green (May's closest friend in government) was one of them.

I think May made a promise she can't necessarily keep in the form of a complex deal on sectors that protect manufacturing.

DH thinks she said more and something rather different; her wording was that they could carry on trading exactly as they currently are one way or another. He thinks that this means she said that she would either get a deal or if a deal was not reachable she would keep us in the EU.

I stress I think he is more optimistic than I am, but we both agree she has revealed more of her plan to Nissan than the cabinet as she had to offer them something that was reassuring and seeing as the cabinet are still bickering and there seems to be no consensus on anything. It suggests she will do what she wants in the end rather than get consensus from the Cabinet.

Of course, Nissan might still not invest because they either don't trust May or think its too much of a risk.

The tories are only free marketeers when it suits them.

In terms of a deal between the UK government and getting Nissan to publically conspire with them. Highly unlikely. Nissan resented being used politically by Thatcher when they first came to the UK and they are annoyed at the same situation occurring now as a result of Brexit.

Will the shit not hit the fan when the Cabinet find that TM has stitched up a deal without them? Or are they just too supine?

Its going to be interesting.

Seriously, what is going to be said in Sunderland if they don't build the QashQai there? The biggest example of shooting yourself in the foot ever.

Is TM going to find some way of ducking the issue, as with the Heathrow 3rd runway decision? Making lots of noise, as is her wont, but doing little.

The Nissan decision isn't going to be announced publicly though is it? So it will have to leak out.

I heard also that no plans have been put forward to support manchester's Graphene Foundation - built with err £24 million of EU development funds.

Going back to larry's post, if A50 is triggered in March, I'm expecting a hard brexit, falling out of the EU with no deal and no transitional arrangements. The Walloon people will see to that.

If it's delayed past march, well who knows - maybe an EFTA type arrangement after a very long period of delay and decline?

The Nissan Deal has less chance of staying secret than I have of becoming President of The United States.

I am also of the opinion a50 invoked in March on May's terms alone will mean Chaotic Brexit unless something significant happens.

The Nissan decision will leak out quickly, the Sunderland plant will know immediately.

Definitely agree that the Nissan decision will leak.

The day after the brexit victory i remember being on a thread and a welsh leave voter actually asked "the govt will cover the lost eu funding, won't they!?"
I didn't know whether to laugh or cry

But in theory they should do, if the Leave arguments that we put more in that we get out hold up.

Larry:

"I curious as to where the despairing remainers think we will end up vis a vis the eu. I think it is valid to ask them that.

I will go first in terms of scenarios:

70% probability: some small tariffs (1-3%) on some goods, many tariff free. Freedom of movement for anyone with a job offer from the eu, but not those coming on spec.

15%: After elections Europe makes substantive changes in its structure and we have another referendum,

10%: Norway

5%: breakdown in negotiations, trade on WTO terms."

I certainly would not be able to come up with figures for the probability of different possible outcomes: I would though be interested to know what you have based yours on. Also, there seems to be a consensus that tariffs are a much less significant issue than non-tariff barriers - where would these sit in your 70% likelihood scenario?

The outcome I would hope for would be to be able to secure an interim agreement to preserve as far as possible our current trading arrangements until a democratic agreement on our future direction can be reached. I have no idea how likely this is, but trying to gauge this in relation to the shifting political climate is very much what this thread is all about.

Btw, Larry, I didn't mean to sound snarky there - I really am interested in how you came to those figures and what you think about NTBs.

And thank you for asking the question: it's good to try and keep this thread on a constructive footing at least some of the time...

In terms of a deal between the UK government and getting Nissan to publically conspire with them. Highly unlikely. Nissan resented being used politically by Thatcher when they first came to the UK and they are annoyed at the same situation occurring now as a result of Brexit

If my theory is right Nissan don't have to be happy with conspiring with the government, they are simply striving for what they want which is to continue manufacturing here without additional costs being incurred.

The government might not even let them in on the plan, if they played hard ball and said we can't guarantee you anything then Nissan probably won't commit to staying thus achieving the same goal.

The whole BoJo not running for PM really opened my eyes to what a game politics really is for those at the top. He saw the job for the poison chalice it is and contrived a story to get out of it.

I think that will happen with Brexit too- I don't believe TM, however power hungry she may be, wants to be the PM who took us out of the EU if it is going to be the disaster it is very much looking like it will be.

The options are to make it a success, but she has no tools to do that, or to get out if it by making it look like that is now the will of the people.

I agree about BoJo realising it was a poisoned chalice and conveniently getting out of it, thus keeping his powder dry for next time (horrible mixed metaphors there.) What are your thoughts on Gove standing for PM? Did he realise? Or was he a man of genuine conviction? He certainly looked startled when he realised his side had had the misfortune to win.
Personally, much though I dislike the man, I would have liked to have seen a contest between him and May.

I wish I had more confidence that TM wasn't stuck in a cycle of "appearing decisive" and as a result backing herself into a corner with no option but Hard Brexit.

This despite the fact that I think a Hard Brexit would help the case for Scottish Independence. I genuinely don't want the hardship that would befall (and hit hardest) the "ordinary" people of the UK. The "elite" (and by that I include TM and others in her Cabinet - as well as all the UKIP MEPs) will be ok whatever happens. Their incomes and guaranteed pensions mean that they will be insulated from the worse effects.

Interestingly, like Red's dh, my dh also has doubts that we ever will actually Brexit. He's been to a couple of Breakfast Seminars on the subject where the consensus at the end has been that we wouldn't actually leave. I don't know how much of that is wishful thinking within the Scottish business community though.

Bear,

Nissan will make an economics based decision. I think the Japanese, though, find the UK a far more comfortable place to be than elsewhere. There are very few Japanese people who speak a foreign language other than English.

They are the ultimate technocrats. They won't rock the boat unless it is absolutely essential.

The EU is a disaster though. It has numerous problems facing it in the shape of Italy, Greece, Ireland and Deutch Bank. Its a matter of when the Euro single currency implodes.

'Btw, Larry, I didn't mean to sound snarky there - I really am interested in how you came to those figures and what you think about NTBs.'

Kaija,

My figures were from my head but my central scenario is that, politically, we are being pressed to exit. On the other hand, neither Europe nor us want a great deal of economic pain. On the other hand, we have to be seen to 'pay' something for our rudeness to Europe. So, ultimately, we will have to accept a solution that is seen to be painful to us vis-a-vis Europe, without pushing the Europeans into a deep and potentially existential crisis.

My other scenarios (scenarii?) are based on a chance of all of Europe rejecting free movement of people, which is causing a lot of pain in many richer nations.

My 5% scenario is based on brinkmanship failing and us actually ending the negotiation with absolutely nothing.

I guess my hunch is that Merkel is pulling the strings and, as a chemist, will be scientific and dispassionate.

peregrina I think BoJo and Gove cooked the whole thing up between them after completely screwing it up by winning the bloody vote.

BoJo was the fall guy in the first instance and Gove knew he'd never make it when it came to voting so could put his name forward without fear of actually doing the job.

I can't help thinking something similar is happening now. It's a game- shame the stakes are so high and they completely fucked it up once already by Leave winning but I'd be willing to bet quite a lot that this is all a ploy to avoid ever invoking a50.

On the negotiations itself, although it may seem that the EU hold all the cards, that is not strictly true.

If we pursued a scorched earth policy, we would take an awful lot of pain but our currency would help us adjust and all of our debt is denominated in a currency that we can print at will. This is very important. Individual EC countries cannot print Euros without the say so of the ECB. They thus can effectively go bankrupt (this was the cause of the PIIGS crisis). In addition the European banks are in even worse shape than ours.

In sum, we could weather a depression and survive. Even if a 15% hit to our GDP only caused a 3% hit to EC GDP, they may not survive it, and they are well aware of it.