Does anyone else sense a change of mood re Brexit?

[twofingerstoGideon]

I was rather astounded following the referendum that politicians of all shades weren't making noises about Brexit needing parliamentary scrutiny etc., but at last - after almost four months - it's as if people are waking up, noticing the shambles and saying "Hang on a minute... I'm not sure we should be doing this..." It was shocking to see the lack of reaction to the xenophobia and the way politicians of all shades seemed to be saying we had to blindly obey the very slim majority. The lack of disgust expressed by the press/politicians about the barefaced lies used by the Leave campaign (not to mention that poster) was also mind-blowing.

Has anyone else noticed a change in the air? I'm starting to feel slightly hopeful for the first time since 24th June that the country isn't just going to jump off a cliff in order to follow 'the will of the people'.

Anyone else, or am I deluded?

Bearbehind

"It's impossible to have a debate when one side won't contribute anything."

Last post, I agree but it is hard for them to contribute when they are continually shot down.

Boney

You made the claim in the first place, and it's a completely unnecessary argument wrt Brexit, why so angry about being challenged?

But they wouldn't be shot down if their arguments stood up to scrutiny.

"I am happy to have data challenged, a sample of 2002 people is hardly representative of the population as a whole."

But your data was based upon a similar survey, but for the previous election and you were happy to use that because it fitted your agenda. So when it meets your agenda its fine, but when it doesn't you'll challenge the veracity of the data.

Also extrapolation of this kind of data is fine, the overall trend will be accurate.

Larry, I'm more than happy to answer that.

I still think off-the-shelf soft Brexit (EEA) is the most likely outcome - for at minimum a long transitional period, possibly indefinitely. I wouldn't put the probability as high as in the past though, because it would require significant compromise on all sides.

Hard Brexit is probably the next most likely option, possibly without even a WTO position to fall back on, since we would have to renegotiate our WTO position. I don't think this is likely, but it's not improbable either.

Finally I still think that remaining (after a long period in limbo with governments pushing A50 ever further out) is possible, but not probable.

EU reform will take too long for it to be a factor in any of these situations, although it's just possible that Cameron's agreement will be revived in some form if it suits the agenda of the EU27. Actual treaty change, however, requires unanimity, and in many cases referendums. Too many elections coming up for that to be a short-term likelihood.

Misti,

Thanks for taking the trouble to answer. Unanimity sounds a bigger deal than it is. If Germany presses for something it is hard for others to decline considering the economic dependency.

Really Larry? Have you not been reading the papers the last two days?!

Larry:

What I expect to happen depends on a few things.

In reality I expect us to have a soft brexit situation, or brexit lite. We'll still have freedom of movement but TM will be able to claim she has lowered it because students will be removed from the figures and the fall in the £ makes it slightly less attractive to workers who are coming here and sending remittances home. If this is the case things will carry on much the same as they were before.

If we follow the hard brexit route I expect the bulk car manufacturers to leave, along with a section of banking services, FDI will have a significant fall. I think that the contracting economy will cause large levels of unemployment and that there would be a housing market crash leaving us with a large recession.
If this is the case I expect the dismantling of our public services by the government as the economic shock will mean that people would be far more accepting of it. I would expect us to become more of a low tax, low levels of public service economy essentially Liam Fox's wet dream.

larry I'm not convince a50 will ever be invoked.

The conspiracy theorist in me wouldn't be surprised if for example the government has some sort of deal with Nissan to announce they won't build the Qashqai in the UK this week.

The shit would really hit the fan if that happened and it would continue this sea of change about Brexit which ultimately would be TM's get out of jail card.

You think that Nissan would resort to what could be seen as economic blackmail? Give us a deal or we quit?

The QashQai deal is a big one and will be a determinant of how people view the future of brexit.

If Nissan announce for here, then its a massive victory and a feather in the cap for the leave campaign, no matter what price May has had to pay to get them to do that.

If the QashQai is going to be built elsewhere its a huge indication that Brexit is going to be an economic disaster.

I wonder how people in Sunderland will feel if its the latter.

What could May offer Nissan that would be sufficiently convincing to get them to base any decision on it, and also legal? Her room for manoeuvre is limited.

I wonder if she told them that we are not actually going to leave the single market?

peregrina I wouldn't be surprised if the government has asked Nissan to be seen to blackmail them.

It's a bit extreme I know but not beyond possibility.

If Nissan say they're not going to build the Qasqai here then Brexit support is going to massively decline.

Equally why would Nissan announce they will definitely build here when so much is uncertain.

If they say they're out at this stage they have a lot more options IMO.

"So your new found figures are based on 2002 people asked after the event, they are equally "post-truth pseudo-fact".

My data was from the Lord Ashcroft poll, 12369 people polled on referendum day.

Bearbehind - I don't think TM is capable of that degree of strategic thinking

The Japanese govt is very very worried about brexit and have gone on record saying as such
I can't see Nissan or Toyota staying in the U.K.
Why should they?
Why not re locate to Ireland? Very educated English speaking workforce, and an eu member state?

The boss of Nissan met with May the other day and left saying he was happy and content that Nissan has a future in the UK. I reckon the UK Government will probably underwrite any tarrifs that Nissan would otherwise be asked to pay outside of the EU. Thats my hunch.

That's my hunch too.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-37656480

And I will say again-
The genus of the establishment in convincing the poor to vote against their own best interests.
The north east - as we are discussing Nissan - is almost totally reliant on the eu for manufacturing jobs.
And yet - spurred on by the right wing press - it overwhelmingly voted to leave
It's also an area - like Wales and Lincolnshire - which actually has very low levels of immigration.
None of it makes sense to me...

prettybird, Bojo is if he decided to put his mind to it.

We'll see what happens next week but I won't be at all surprised if Nissan say they won't build the Qashqai in the UK and the support for Brexit takes a massive knock.

So TM would offer some sort of bribe, which will probably not be legal under EU rules? So this gives her another opportunity to bash the EU.

What I expect to happen with the car industry is that they will gradually pull out - they will let the marques made here continue until the end of their useful life, but will build new models elsewhere.

Never mind, we will lead the world in exports of jam! Oops no, because we haven't got anyone to pick the fruit. Oh well, tea then. Oops again, the climate isn't really suitable for tea growing. Oh well, whatever, they will sort something out.

However that might contravene the state aid laws and incur higher tariffs on Nissans than the standard 10%.

Seriously the Nissan thing is HUGE!

I think without migrant labour English fruit and veg production is pretty much finished too
Young white english people simply won't work that hard in those conditions

celeste I can see the logic in your hunch but I genuinely think the government want Brexit to fail so are looking for ways to make that happen without being seen to outright backtrack- Nissan is a perfect opportunity to put a nail in Brexits coffin.